Critical Real Estate Releases: The FOMC Looms Large

We’ll have some critical real estate-related data points this week, with housing starts and the NAHB Homebuilding Index. The spring selling season is just around the corner, so we should start seeing bigger numbers in the starts and permits data.

The FOMC meets this week. It will contain the new economic projections plus the forecasts for the federal funds rate (the dot graph) that Janet Yellen frequently refers to.

Here’s a rundown of this week’s economic data:

Monday, December 15, 2014

• empire manufacturing
• industrial production
• capacity utilization
• manufacturing production
• NAHB housing market index
• TIC flows

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

• housing starts
• building permits
• Markit manufacturing

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

• Mortgage Bankers Association (or MBA) mortgage applications
• consumer price index
• FOMC statement

Thursday, December 18, 2014

• initial jobless claims
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
• Philly Fed
• Index of Leading Economic Indicators

Friday, December 19, 2014

• Kansas City Fed

• no real estate–related earnings this week

Real estate investment trusts (or REITs) such as American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) and Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY), will emphasize data that will move the bond market. For them, it will be all about the FOMC statement on Wednesday. This meeting will include revisions to the staff’s economic projections, but Wall Street will be parsing the statement, trying to anticipate when rates will start going up.

The big homebuilders like Lennar (LEN) and PulteGroup (PHM) will pay the most attention to housing starts and building permits, followed closely by the NAHB Housing Market Indices.

Mall REITs such as Simon Property Group (SPG) and General Growth Properties (GGP) will pay the most attention to the consumer comfort index. Office REITs like Boston Properties (BXP) and SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) will be interested in the industrial production data.