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Potash Prices Recorded Strong Gains Last Week
Potash prices in Brazil rose the most last week with a rise of 2.3% to $357 per metric ton from $349 per metric ton.
Are Fertilizers Becoming Less Affordable?
Fertilizer affordability affects sales volume for fertilizer companies (NANR) such as Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR), CF Industries (CF), and Intrepid Potash (IPI).
Consensus Gives Nutrien a Double-Digit Upside
Nutrien has yet to deliver meaningful returns similar to fertilizer (NANR) companies such as the Mosaic Company (MOS) and CF Industries (CF).
Natural Gas Prices Fell Last Week, Benefiting Nitrogen Producers
We’re looking at natural gas prices in this series, primarily because they make up two-thirds of the input costs for nitrogen-based fertilizers.
How Fertilizer Affordability Changed in Week Ended August 10
Fertilizer affordability last week, which ended on August 10, was largely unchanged, as reported by Mosaic (MOS).
Expectations for Global Potash Fertilizer Demand
The potash market was no different than nitrogen and phosphate. Potash prices were depressed due to oversupply.
Potash Prices Rose in Week Ended June 29
Last week, potash prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the United States rose 1.6% week-over-week to $235 per metric ton.
How DAP Prices Performed Last Week
Year-over-year, DAP prices remain strong with NOLA and China each experiencing a 21% gain year-over-year.
MAP Prices Were Broadly Higher Last Week
Contrary to the DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices, which remained broadly flat last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were broadly higher in NOLA and Brazil.
A Peek at Potash Prices Last Week
Last week, potash prices were broadly flat to positive, similar to phosphate fertilizer prices.
How DAP Prices Performed for the Week Ended April 20
Last week, prices for DAP (diammonium phosphate) fertilizer were broadly flat to positive except for Morocco.
How Diammonium Phosphate Prices Fared Last Week
In the week that ended on April 13, 2018, DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to negative.
How MAP Prices Moved Last Week
One of the positives for companies such as Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR) (POT), and CF Industries (CF) is the higher year-over-year prices that we’ve seen for fertilizers.
Fertilizers Remained Affordable Last Week
The Fertilizer Affordability Index rose slightly to 0.67x last week from 0.66x a week ago. The index level stood at 0.7x a month ago and 0.61x a year ago.
How Fertilizer Producers’ Phosphate Margins Stacked Up in 4Q17
Agrium (AGU) (NTR) saw flat margins compared to 6% in the corresponding quarter a year ago in 4Q16.
MAP Prices Inch Higher for the Week Ended February 23
Last week, MAP prices in both the locations rose on a weekly basis.
How MAP Prices Performed Last Week
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil have been on the rise lately from a low point of $343 per metric ton as a result of strong agricultural activity in the region.
Potash Prices Trend Upwards in the 1st Week of 2018
The potash fertilizer prices for both granular and standard grade were comfortably higher compared to the levels observed last year around the same week.
Assessing the Shift in CF Industries’ Product Mix
In the earlier part of this series, we discussed how shipments impacted CF Industries’ (CF) sales. From our analysis, it’s clear that a rise in selling prices remains the most important growth catalyst for the company.
Phosphate Prices in 2018
Phosphate prices Earlier in this series, we discussed phosphate prices in 2017 and what has driven prices down recently. We saw that excess capacity pushed down phosphate fertilizer (NANR) prices during the year. In this part, we’ll look at supply and demand trends for phosphate fertilizers in 2018. Supply and demand In 2017, overall global […]
MAP Prices Remained Strong in Week Ended December 15
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices have shown strength in recent weeks, moving higher to peak at $ $403 per metric ton in Brazil.
How DAP Prices Performed in Week Ended December 8
Last week, which ended December 8, 2017, was broadly mixed for movements in DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices. Some regions saw weekly gains, and others moved sideways to negative.
The Bayer-Monsanto Merger Deal: An Update
On September 14, 2016, Bayer signed an agreement with Monsanto (MON) to acquire it for $66 billion, or $128 per share. The offer represented a 44% premium over Monsanto’s stock price.
Your Potash Price Update for the Week Ending November 24
Last week, the granular MOP (muriate of potash) prices in NOLA (New Orleans) in the US (NANR) rose by as much as 45 basis points week-over-week to $203 per metric ton.
What’s the Outlook on Phosphate Fertilizers?
In its September Market Overview report, PotashCorp (POT) stated that the gains in phosphate prices earlier this year were reversed due to excess supply and weakness in demand from India.
Why Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Fell in 3Q17
On average, nitrogen fertilizer prices failed to show a meaningful growth YoY (year-over-year) in 3Q17.
Analyzing the MAP Prices in Brazil Last Week
The MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil saw positive momentum last week. Brazil is still a favorable market for fertilizer producers.
MAP Prices Were Firm for the Week Ending September 15
In recent months, MAP prices in Brazil have been on a downward trajectory. However, MAP prices appear to have found firmness in recent weeks.
CF Industries: A Good Fit for Top 10 Agricultural Chemicals List?
Over the past ten-year period, CF Industries has risen 186.0% and significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index’s rise of 69.2% over the same period.
No Hope for MAP Prices in Brazil: Week Ending August 18
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices continued to fall and brought more pain for phosphate producers (NANR).
Inside the Potash Margins of 5 Major Fertilizer Companies
Given the growth in potash shipments and the increase in price realization, it’s natural that the margins of potash producers improved YoY in 2Q17.
IPI’s Potash Segment’s Price Realization Rose 22% in 2Q17
Intrepid Potash’s 2Q17 price realizations for its Potash segment were significantly better compared to 2Q16.
Shipments for PotashCorp’s Phosphate Segment See Strong Growth
PotashCorp’s (POT) phosphate segment contributed almost a fourth of overall sales for 2Q17. Sales were driven by shipments and price realizations.
Capital Expenditure Expectations for CF Industries in 2Q17
CF Industries (CF) is expected to see a significant reduction in its capital expenditure (or capex) year-over-year (or YoY) in 2Q17 and for the next four quarters.
Will PotashCorp Report Flat Earnings Growth in 2Q17?
PotashCorp (POT) had lackluster earnings growth last year. However, the company reported EPS (earnings per share) growth in 1Q17.
Wall Street Recommendations and Price Target for Mosaic
Mosaic (MOS) remains a painful investment for investors. The company has delivered losses of 18.7% year-to-date as of July 13.
Where Intrepid’s Potash Segment Margin Stands next to Peers
Intrepid Potash’s (IPI) gross margin for its Potash segment swung to positive territory in 1Q17, while its Trio margins were in the negative territory.
Fertilizers Were Affordable for the Week Ending June 23
According to the Fertilizer Affordability Index, 2017 has been one of the most affordable years for fertilizers. Mosaic issues the index.
A Review of CF Industries’ Margin Trends
Over the past five years, CF Industries’ (CF) gross and EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margins have contracted.
Monsanto’s Price Targets and Recommendations in June 2017
On June 9, Monsanto (MON) stock closed at $117.5 per share.
Why the Fertilizer Affordability Index Was Lower Last Week
The Fertilizer Affordability Index has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year. Fertilizers have become more affordable in 2017.
Analysts’ Recommendations and Price Target for SQM
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) has yet to announce its earnings, unlike most of the companies we’ve discussed so far in this series.
Analyst Recommendations for Anadarko Petroleum after 1Q17
Approximately 83.0% of analysts have rated Anadarko Petroleum (APC) a “buy.” The average broker target price is $81.52.
Fertilizer Affordability Fell for the Week Ending April 28
For the week ending April 28, the Fertilizer Affordability Index fell slightly to 0.58x—compared to 0.59x the previous week.
Understanding PotashCorp’s Phosphate Price Dive in 1Q17
PotashCorp’s average realized prices for phosphate fell ~15% to $423 per ton in 1Q17, as compared to $499 per ton in 1Q16.
What Are Analysts’ Recommendations for Noble Energy?
Approximately 53% of the analysts rate Noble Energy (NBL) as a “buy” and 32.3% rate it as a “hold.” The average broker target price is $47.47.
What Analysts Forecast for PotashCorp’s Capital Expenditure
In recent years, agricultural fertilizer companies like PotashCorp (POT), Agrium (AGU), Israel Chemicals (ICL), and CF Industries (CF) have incurred higher capital expenditures.
Urea Cost Curve Steepens: What It Means for CF Industries
Urea prices have fallen by an average of 14% annually over the past five years. The consistent fall has been due to falling energy costs, leading to lower production costs across the board.
Potash on the Barrel: Prices for Five Major Producers
On average, potash prices for these five producers fell ~33% YoY in 4Q16. Excess supply and weak demand added downward pressure.
What Analysts Recommend for Noble Energy after Its Earnings
Approximately 67.0% of the analysts rate Noble Energy (NBL) as a “buy” and 33.0% rate it as a “hold.” The average broker target price is $46.88.
What Analysts Recommend for Anadarko after Its 4Q16 Earnings
The average broker target price of $81.65 for Anadarko Petroleum implies a potential return of ~19.4% for the stock in the next 12 months.
Fertilizer Affordability Didn’t Change Last Week
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index remained unchanged at 0.65x week-over-week. Fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.
What Are Analysts’ Recommendations and Forecasts for NBL?
For 4Q16, analysts have an average earnings estimate of -$0.10 per share for Noble Energy (NBL). The low estimate stands at ~-$0.22 per share.
How PotashCorp’s Phosphate Shipments Performed in 4Q16
Overall shipments for PotashCorp’s Phosphate segment fell 6.0% in 4Q16 to 0.72 million tons, from $0.76 million tons in 4Q15.
Comparing PotashCorp’s Enterprise Multiple with Its Peers
PotashCorp (POT), which is currently trading at an EV-t0-EBITDA multiple of 15.0x, is trading far above its low point of 6.0x a year ago.
A Look at Nitrogen Fertilizer Cost Drivers and Production Flow
Energy as well as freight and handling can be the two biggest costs for nitrogen fertilizer production.
Why Monsanto’s Operating Margins Improved in 1Q17
Monsanto reported operating income or EBIT of $247 million, which rose from -$272 million in fiscal 1Q16.
Inside the Soybean Inventory Rise in December
The global soybean stock-to-use ratio for soybeans rose to ~25.1% in December 2016, as compared to 24.8% in November 2016.
Can Monsanto Report Earnings Growth in Fiscal 1Q17?
For 2017, Wall Street analysts are estimating that Monsanto (MON) could report EPS of $4.70, which would translate into earnings growth of 5.3% year-over-year.
At What Valuation Is the Market Investing in Monsanto?
Monsanto’s (MON) forward PE valuation multiple has recently trended higher, and so has the price of its stock.
Fertilizers Were Less Affordable Last Week
Last week, fertilizer affordability rose to 0.66x from 0.65x week-over-week. A ratio below one means that fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.
Fertilizers Were More Affordable in Week Ended November 25
For the week ending November 25, fertilizer affordability fell to 0.65x from 0.66x week-over-week.
What Were Potash Companies’ 3Q16 Realized Prices?
Potash’s selling price has been on the decline for the last few quarters and is key to the performances of potash producers (NANR).
Soybean’s Stock-to-Use Ratio Rose with the Inventory
Unlike corn, the global soybean stock-to-use ratio is lower compared to the global stock-to-use ratio of 26.5% last year.
What Do Analysts Recommend for Anadarko Petroleum?
Approximately 73% of the analysts rate Anadarko a “buy,” 22% rate it a “hold,” and 5% rate it a “sell.” The average broker target price is $72.52.
Mosaic’s Phosphate Shipments Will Likely Rise
The Phosphate segment’s shipments rose 23% to ~2.5 million tons from ~2 million tons in 3Q15—compared to guidance of 2.4 million–2.7 million tons.
Fertilizer Update: Are Market Dynamics Changing?
Producers in China primarily use coal as an input material to produce nitrogen, especially urea-based fertilizers. China is the world’s biggest urea exporter.
What Analysts Recommend for Hess after 3Q16 Earnings
About 42% of analysts rate Hess a “buy,” and ~58% rate it a “hold.” The average target price of $64.89 implies a return of ~29% in the next 12 months.
CF’s 3Q16 Sales Estimate Shows a Common Trend in the Industry
CF Industries’ (CF) sales segment includes UAN (urea ammonia nitrate), AN (ammonia nitrate), ammonia, and granular urea.
History’s Not on POT’s Side when It Comes to Earnings Growth
When we look at the past five quarters, we see that PotashCorp has missed all its earnings estimates.
What Analysts Recommend for Intrepid Potash ahead of 3Q16 Earnings
Intrepid Potash (IPI) is nearing $1 per share, which means that only a few analysts are covering the stock.
What’s the Recent Market Sentiment for MON, POT, AGU, and Others?
As of October 14, 2016, Monsanto is trading at a short interest ratio of 1.2%, which is slightly higher than 0.90% in September.
Soybean’s Stock-to-Use Ratio Rose in October
The global stock-to-use ratio for soybeans rose 1.6% to ~23.5% in October—compared to 22% in September. Soybean’s ratio is lower than last year.
Cost Curves 101: What Nitrogen Investors Must Consider
Demystifying the cost curve Earlier in this series, we saw that prices of nitrogen have fallen over the years, despite its significance in crop growth and feeding the vast population. The lower prices are due to a flatter cost curve, which we’ll explain in this part. Flat cost curve In the chart above, we compare a […]
Coal Prices Remained Flat for the Week Ending October 7
Chinese producers primarily use coal to produce nitrogen, especially urea-based fertilizers, while producers in North America mostly rely on natural gas.
Why Corn Prices Are Still Declining in September
Corn prices on September 12 were 1.6% higher at $3.30 per bushel compared to $3.20 per bushel in August 2016.
The Love-Hate Relationship between Freeport and Indonesia
According to Freeport-McMoRan’s agreement with Indonesia’s government, it must divest an additional 20.6% stake in its Indonesian operations to the government or its citizens.
Where Do FMC’s Valuations Stand after Its 2Q16 Earnings?
Forward price-to-earnings (or PE) is a relative valuation method that considers a company’s future earnings for calculation.
Why Have Mosaic’s Potash Shipments Declined?
The gross margin rate for Mosaic’s Phosphate segment fell significantly in 2Q16, to 10% from 21% in 2Q15.
What Analysts Recommend for Noble Energy after Its 2Q16 Earnings
Approximately 63% of analysts rate Noble Energy (NBL) a “buy,” and 34% rate it a “hold.” The remaining ~3% rate it a “sell.”
What Analysts Recommend for EQT after 2Q16 Earnings
Approximately 65% of analysts rate EQT (EQT) a “buy,” and 30% rate it a “hold.” The remaining 5% rate it a “sell.”
What Do Analysts Recommend for Anadarko after Its 2Q16 Earnings?
Approximately 73% of analysts rate Anadarko a “buy,” whereas 22% rate it a “hold,” and 5% rate it a “sell.” The average broker target price is $66.50.
How Subdued Potash Prices Have Extended to Potash Players
The weekly average price for potash in Vancouver remained flat in the week ended June 24, 2016. Prices are below their 15-year average of $290 per metric ton.
Are MAP Prices Consolidating at Their Current Levels?
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) is the second most used phosphate fertilizer after DAP (diammonium phosphate).
What Could Explain Soybeans’ Low Stock-to-Use Ratio?
In June 2016, the global soybean stock-to-use ratio stood at 20.2%, which was at its lowest point compared to the past four years.
How Fertilizer Producers’ EBITDA Margins Compared in 1Q16
Mosaic’s (MOS) margins declined from 25% to 16%. Intrepid Potash’s (IPI) EBITDA margins were negative because of a deficit.
How Fertilizer Companies’ Gross Margins Were Pressured in 1Q16
The fertilizer industry moves in cycles and with most companies experiencing a decline in margins, the industry seems to be in the bottom cycle.
How Potash Shipments Performed in 1Q16
Mosaic (MOS) and PotashCorp (POT) were hit the hardest, with their respective shipments declining by 24% each to 1.5 million tons and 1.7 million tons year-over-year.
How Phosphate Shipments Performed in 1Q16
Israel Chemicals, which shipped 0.5 million metric tons during the recent quarter, saw the largest jump in shipment growth—20% year-over-year.
Comps Happen: How Fertilizer Companies Performed during 1Q16
The agricultural fertilizer industry is experiencing sluggish momentum as a result of the weakness in crop prices that has extended well into 2016. With the earnings season for the quarter ended March 2016 behind us, let’s recap the industry’s performance and compare the companies within the industry.
How Did MAP Price Movement Affect Fertilizer Producers?
Last week, average MAP prices in Brazil inched down to $352 per metric ton from $354 per metric ton the previous week.
How Did Ammonia Prices Move Last Week?
Last week, nitrogen producers CF Industries (CF), CVR Partners (UAN), Terra Nitrogen (TNH), and PotashCorp (POT) ended in the red.
Why MAP Fertilizer Prices Continue to Stabilize
Last, average MAP prices in Brazil inched up to $353 per metric ton from $352 per metric ton the previous week.
Why Potash Prices Remain a Concern for Fertilizer Producers
The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) in Vancouver remained unchanged for the week ended May 27, 2016.
Are Monoammonium Phosphate Prices Stabilizing at Current Levels?
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) is the second most used phosphate fertilizer after DAP (diammonium phosphate).
How Do Recent Potash Prices Compare with Their 15-Year Average?
The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) in Vancouver remained unchanged for the week ended May 20, 2016.
How Phosphate Rock Prices Are Phosphate Producers’ Saving Grace
Phosphate rock prices remained unchanged during the week ended May 20, 2016.
Ammonium Phosphate Prices: A Comparison
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) is the second-most used phosphate fertilizer after DAP (diammonium phosphate).
Why Did the Margins for Mosaic’s Phosphate Segment Decline?
The gross margin rate for Mosaic’s Phosphate segment fell significantly in 1Q16 to 7% from 19% in 1Q15.
Phosphate Rock Prices Decline, Bringing Relief to Phosphate Producers
It takes between 1.6 metric tons and 1.7 metric tons of phosphate rock to produce a single metric ton of DAP, according to Mosaic.