BTC iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

The Fed is scheduled to meet this week. With the S&P 500 at record highs, could the Fed play spoilsport at this week’s meeting?

Gundlach thinks that we’ve already seen a bottom in interest rates for 2019. US Treasury yields have been hitting lows in 2019.

Yesterday, in a series of late-night tweets, President Trump attacked the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell again, calling them “boneheads.”

You’ve likely heard about it in the financial press recently: this ominous, notorious thing called the “yield curve inversion.”

Amid the trade war, weakening economic indicators, and the yield curve inversion, Jeffrey Gundlach believes the Fed has lost control of interest rates.

The stock market has seen big moves both ways this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) has surged 1.3% today as bond yields have risen.

Global stock markets fell after the US yield curve inverted, an indicator of a future recession. Does it necessarily lead to a recession?

Tuesday’s stock market respite was short-lived. The S&P 500 Index fell 2.1% today after the yield curve inverted, an indicator of an impending recession.

The most-watched part of the yield curve inverted on Wednesday. When the curve inverted, it sent recession warnings across the markets.

The ten-year Treasury yield hit a seven-year high of 3.2% back in October as US stocks were surging—but things have changed a lot since then.

The US-China trade war escalated very quickly this month. This has caused global equities to plunge and safe havens like gold and treasuries to surge.

Jeffrey Gundlach puts the odds of a recession happening before the 2020 US presidential election at 75%.

Jeffrey Gundlach sees upside potential in gold prices as negative-yielding debt rises worldwide. He sees gold rising to $1,600–$1,700 per ounce.

Rising US-China trade tensions have caused all assets, and especially bond markets, to move considerably over the last few sessions.

Today, bond yields are sinking and stock markets are tanking as markets become fearful of an upcoming recession.

In the last week or so, major indexes have plunged as the US-China trade war has quickly escalated, leaving investors rattled.

Today’s federal funds rate cut was the first in a decade. Find out how stocks and gold reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision.

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the non-farm payroll data for June. The US economy added 224,000 jobs in the month.

May’s PMI numbers were not very encouraging. The manufacturing PMI released by IHS Markit came in at 50.5, the lowest since September 2009 when the economy was just trying to come out of the shadows of the global recession. While the reading still indicates expansion, the pace of expansion is the lowest in almost a decade.

As far as the Fed’s next moves are concerned, Gundlach said that if the market forces are allowed to prevail, interest rates should go up even in the next downturn.

Equities continued to rise on April 1 due to upbeat Chinese manufacturing data. The NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) rose 1.3% on April 1.

After rising for most of last week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.5% on Friday, March 22.

The Treasury yield curve turned negative on March 22. The ten-year yield fell below the three-month yield for the first time since 2007.

Fed policymakers are watching the job data closely. The data show whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.

Bank of America’s equity and quantitative strategist, Savita Subramanian, expects a decline in the S&P 500 (SPY) in 2019—compared to 2018.

Fed policymakers are watching job data closely, as the data gives the Fed insight as to whether the US economy (SPY) (IVV) is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.

Credit Suisse (CS) is positive about gold prices (IAU) in 2019. The bank expects gold prices to average $1,275 per ounce in 2019 and $1,300 in 2020.

After the Fed’s two-day meeting and rate hike, the markets were behaving as if something totally unexpected had happened.

The yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times. For example, the yield of two-year securities (SHY) is usually lower than that of ten-year securities (IEF)(TLT).

Fed policymakers are watching the job data closely, as it gives them insight as to whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand interest rates hikes.

A yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times.

In a note published last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian said, “We believe the peak in equities is likely before the end of 2019.”

Many market participants expect the economy to weaken in 2019. They’re concerned that the Fed might keep tightening the rates.

The current shape of the curve implies that the bond market expects a weaker outlook for 2019 and lower inflation.

In the BAML September 2018 survey, trade war concerns were cited as the top concern among global fund managers.

When the yield curve (BND) inverts, it means that the yields of shorter-duration securities become larger than those of longer-term securities.

Job numbers give Fed policymakers clues about whether the US economy (SPY) (IVV) is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.

A yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times.

While most Fed officials agreed on rates and trade concerns, there was disagreement among them regarding the significance of the yield curve.

While fund managers are bullish on US equities (SPY), there’s still no lack of concern in the market.

It doesn’t come as a surprise that Wall Street is concerned about a potential slowdown, as the spreads have significantly narrowed between the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields.

The Fed has hinted that there could be two more interest rate hikes this year, for a total of four hikes in 2018.

Monetary policies have been crucial in determining the movement in precious metals.

Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), and Gold Fields (GFI) have declined 5.2%, 5.4%, 6.2%, and 2.8%, respectively.

With global rates normalizing, geopolitics still posing major risks, and with one of the longest bull runs in U.S. stocks apparently stalling, 2018 might be a year of paradigm shift.

Rising interest rates increase the cost of owning a home for prospective buyers, but the housing market hasn’t yet felt the impact of rate increases.

The US bond market continued to rebound as trade tensions and the limited appreciation in equity markets pushed demand for bonds higher, depressing the bond yields for a second consecutive week.

In the May LEI report, the yield spread had a net impact of 0.14 (or 14.0%).

The US bond market had a limited reaction to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate hike and the 0.20% increase in interest paid on excess reserves.

As was widely expected, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, to 1.75%–2%.

The US bond market seems to be benefiting from multiple crises around the world.

The US bond market was volatile in May. The ten-year yield reached a peak of 3.1% and fell to a low of 2.8% in a span of three weeks.

The real estate sector (VNQ) has been lagging in performance in 2018. It’s seen a year-to-date loss of 6%.

The US bond market had some relief from its ongoing slide as the Fed’s May meeting minutes were less hawkish than expected.

On Thursday, silver was up 0.8% to $16.6 an ounce.

On May 23, the Fed’s May meeting minutes gave some support to gold prices as the ten-year Treasury note (IEF) yield dropped almost 5.1 basis points to 3.0%.

The US bond markets remained under selling pressure as bond yields, especially at the short end of the curve, continued to shoot up, while the long-term yields remained subdued.

US ten-year bond market yields have scaled a new seven-year peak at 3.07, their highest level since July 2011.

US ten-year Treasury note yields (IEF) hit a high mark of approximately 3.1% today—a record since July 2011.

The benchmark ten-year Treasury bond yields (IEF) have cleared the psychologically important 3% mark again.

US bond market yields continue to trend higher, but their overall movement last week was limited.

For the week ending May 4, the ten-year (IEF) yield closed at 3% and depreciated by 0.8 basis points. The two-year yield (SHY) closed at 2.50%.

According to the ADP April National Employment Report, US private sector employment added 204,000 jobs in April.

In addition to the US dollar playing on precious metals, US interest rates and the decisions by the Federal Reserve have also historically had a substantial impact on these safe havens.

This week is important for the bond markets (BSV). Reports are scheduled for inflation, personal income, and non-farm payrolls.

In April, the yield spread has declined to the lowest level since the Great Recession and could decline further if inflation doesn’t accelerate.

The US bond markets were under pressure as the yield curve continued flattening until Wednesday last week.

If there aren’t any more negative surprises this week, the US bond market could continue to struggle.

In the recent weeks, the performance of the US bond markets (BND) has been influenced by trade conflicts between the US and other nations.

China owns close to 20% of the total outstanding US debt, and the total value of these securities is close to $1.2 trillion.

The US bond markets moved marginally higher in the previous week as investors’ worry about rising bond yields fell after the February inflation print showed stable growth.

The US bond markets were the only asset class that failed to rally after the February jobs report was released on March 9, 2018.

For the week ending March 2, the ten-year yield (IEF) tested 2.9% after Powell’s hawkish comments. However, IEF settled at 2.9% at the end of the week.

The US bond markets managed to gain some lost ground as bond bulls reemerged.

Much of the attention in precious metal movements is based on fluctuations in the US interest rate.

US bond markets found some relief in the week ending February 16, as bond yields retreated from their multiyear high at the end of the week.

Another element besides the fluctuations of the US dollar that could have led to the fall in precious metals is the US interest rate.

Long-term yields (TLT) have not appreciated to the same extent as short-term yields, in response to interest rate hikes and changes to the dot-plot.

As we know, precious metals are closely tied to movements in US interest rates. Bonds and equities are both yield-bearing assets, so a rise in yields often causes a slump in demand for assets such as gold and silver.

The US Treasury is not able to issue any more debt until the debt ceiling is raised, which could increase the volatility in the bond markets.

The core CPI of 0.3% pushed the annual number up by 0.1% to 1.8%.

On January 10, 2018, Bloomberg News broke a story that the Chinese government could be planning to slow down its purchases of US government debt (GOVT).

Gold is a non-yield bearing asset that reacts negatively to rises in the interest rate.

The US bond (BND) markets returned to weakness last week after a minor bout of enthusiasm following the tax cut announcement.

Though the precious metal prices have been on an upswing over the past few weeks, the streak could end due to the increased probability of Fed rate hikes in 2018.

The US FOMC December meeting minutes and the December employment data are key economic data releases that could impact markets this week.

A December rate hike and a flattening yield curve The Fed rolled out another rate hike at its final meeting of 2017. The target range for the federal funds rate was increased by 0.25% to 1.25%–1.50%, and the Fed has signaled three more rate hikes in 2018. Two members dissented to the rate hike due to lower […]

Besides the slump of the US dollar during 2017, the other most important and most talked-about indicator is the US interest rate.

All four precious metals had an up day on December 20, 2017. Gold increased 0.43% on the day and closed at $1,267.80 per ounce.

The US bond (BND) markets witnessed surprising selling last week despite the passage of the tax reform bill.

The Federal Reserve lowered its unemployment rate projection to 3.9% for 2018 and raised its GDP forecast.

Precious metals and miners saw some relief on December 13 after the Fed raised rates as expected. Sibanye Gold (SBGL), Aurico Gold (AUQ), and Goldcorp (GG) rose 3.5%, 3.6%, and 5.8%, respectively.

Gold, silver, and platinum all had a down day on Tuesday, December 13, mainly due to speculations over the Federal Reserve’s pending interest rate decision.

Although the US dollar has been the most important element contributing to changes in precious metals, the upcoming December meeting of the Federal Reserve has taken all of investors’ attention.

The US bond (BND) markets responded to the series of positive economic data releases from the US last week.

The US bond (BND) market performance was mixed for the week ending December 1 as volatility increased.

Precious metal market participants will be closely watching the economic numbers that come out of the US, especially those that give an indication of the country’s inflation level.

Market participants were eyeing the Fed’s meeting minutes that came out on Wednesday, November 22, 2017. Precious metals have a negative relationship to interest rates.

The November Conference Board report, which takes October data into account, reported the credit spread at ~1.2—an improvement from the September reading of ~1.1.

The flattening of the US yield curve continued to keep bond market (BND) investors anxious last week.