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Could This Week’s Fed Meeting Boost Gold and Bonds?
The Fed is scheduled to meet this week. With the S&P 500 at record highs, could the Fed play spoilsport at this week’s meeting?
Gundlach Discussed the Fed, Trade Deal, and Gold
Gundlach thinks that we’ve already seen a bottom in interest rates for 2019. US Treasury yields have been hitting lows in 2019.
Trump Demands a 2% Rate Cut: 2020 Election Strategy?
Yesterday, in a series of late-night tweets, President Trump attacked the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell again, calling them “boneheads.”
Investors’ Obsession with Yield Curve Inversion
You’ve likely heard about it in the financial press recently: this ominous, notorious thing called the “yield curve inversion.”
Gundlach: Fed Has Lost Control—Where Is He Investing?
Amid the trade war, weakening economic indicators, and the yield curve inversion, Jeffrey Gundlach believes the Fed has lost control of interest rates.
Where the Stock Market Could Be Headed Soon
The stock market has seen big moves both ways this week. The S&P 500 (SPY) has surged 1.3% today as bond yields have risen.
Is the Yield Curve Inversion a False Alarm?
Global stock markets fell after the US yield curve inverted, an indicator of a future recession. Does it necessarily lead to a recession?
What Caused Yields to Plunge and What Does It Mean?
Tuesday’s stock market respite was short-lived. The S&P 500 Index fell 2.1% today after the yield curve inverted, an indicator of an impending recession.
Yield Curve Inverts: Stock Markets on Borrowed Time?
The most-watched part of the yield curve inverted on Wednesday. When the curve inverted, it sent recession warnings across the markets.
Can Treasury Yields Get Any Lower?
The ten-year Treasury yield hit a seven-year high of 3.2% back in October as US stocks were surging—but things have changed a lot since then.
How to Hedge Against the US-China Trade War
The US-China trade war escalated very quickly this month. This has caused global equities to plunge and safe havens like gold and treasuries to surge.
Gundlach Sees Recession Risk Rising Based on This Indicator
Jeffrey Gundlach puts the odds of a recession happening before the 2020 US presidential election at 75%.
Why Jeffrey Gundlach Sees Huge Upside in Gold
Jeffrey Gundlach sees upside potential in gold prices as negative-yielding debt rises worldwide. He sees gold rising to $1,600–$1,700 per ounce.
Where Are Bond Markets Headed?
Rising US-China trade tensions have caused all assets, and especially bond markets, to move considerably over the last few sessions.
Bond Yields Sink, Gold ETFs Soar on Rising Recession Fears
Today, bond yields are sinking and stock markets are tanking as markets become fearful of an upcoming recession.
Tech Stocks Plunge 4.1% as the Trade War Escalates
In the last week or so, major indexes have plunged as the US-China trade war has quickly escalated, leaving investors rattled.
Stocks and Gold Plunged after the Fed Rate Cut
Today’s federal funds rate cut was the first in a decade. Find out how stocks and gold reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision.
Why the Jobs Report Stopped the S&P 500 from Hitting 3,000
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the non-farm payroll data for June. The US economy added 224,000 jobs in the month.
Why We May See a Stock Market Crash Earlier than Trump Thinks
May’s PMI numbers were not very encouraging. The manufacturing PMI released by IHS Markit came in at 50.5, the lowest since September 2009 when the economy was just trying to come out of the shadows of the global recession. While the reading still indicates expansion, the pace of expansion is the lowest in almost a decade.
What Does Gundlach Have to Say about the Fed’s Next Moves?
As far as the Fed’s next moves are concerned, Gundlach said that if the market forces are allowed to prevail, interest rates should go up even in the next downturn.
The NASDAQ Composite Index Continued to Rise
Equities continued to rise on April 1 due to upbeat Chinese manufacturing data. The NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) rose 1.3% on April 1.
Why Stock Markets Fell on March 22
After rising for most of last week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.5% on Friday, March 22.
Markets Spooked as Yield Curve Inverts for First Time since 2007
The Treasury yield curve turned negative on March 22. The ten-year yield fell below the three-month yield for the first time since 2007.
Fed: Jobs Report Could Show Future Rate Hike Path
Fed policymakers are watching the job data closely. The data show whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.
Bank of America Expects the Markets to Fall in 2019
Bank of America’s equity and quantitative strategist, Savita Subramanian, expects a decline in the S&P 500 (SPY) in 2019—compared to 2018.
What Could US Jobs Report Mean for the Fed and Rate Hikes?
Fed policymakers are watching job data closely, as the data gives the Fed insight as to whether the US economy (SPY) (IVV) is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.
The Gold Equities Credit Suisse Favors in 2019
Credit Suisse (CS) is positive about gold prices (IAU) in 2019. The bank expects gold prices to average $1,275 per ounce in 2019 and $1,300 in 2020.
This, Not the Rate Hike, Spooked the Markets Yesterday
After the Fed’s two-day meeting and rate hike, the markets were behaving as if something totally unexpected had happened.
What an Inverted Yield Curve Means for Gold
The yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times. For example, the yield of two-year securities (SHY) is usually lower than that of ten-year securities (IEF)(TLT).
Will November Jobs Report Give Fed the Green Light to Hike Rates?
Fed policymakers are watching the job data closely, as it gives them insight as to whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand interest rates hikes.
Yield Curve Inverts for the First Time since 2007
A yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times.
Bank of America’s Suggestions for Investors in a Market Decline
In a note published last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian said, “We believe the peak in equities is likely before the end of 2019.”
Why a Fed Policy Mistake Is Worrying Markets
Many market participants expect the economy to weaken in 2019. They’re concerned that the Fed might keep tightening the rates.
Will the Fed Consider the Risk of a Recession?
The current shape of the curve implies that the bond market expects a weaker outlook for 2019 and lower inflation.
Trade War Risk Worries Fund Managers: Should You Be Concerned?
In the BAML September 2018 survey, trade war concerns were cited as the top concern among global fund managers.
Should You Be Worried about the Possible Yield Curve Inversion?
When the yield curve (BND) inverts, it means that the yields of shorter-duration securities become larger than those of longer-term securities.
What Will the Fed Look for in the August Jobs Report?
Job numbers give Fed policymakers clues about whether the US economy (SPY) (IVV) is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.
Yield Curve Narrows to Decade Low
A yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times.
Fed Officials Are Divided on the Significance of the Yield Curve
While most Fed officials agreed on rates and trade concerns, there was disagreement among them regarding the significance of the yield curve.
Trade War Is Still Investors’ Top Concern: Should You Be Worried?
While fund managers are bullish on US equities (SPY), there’s still no lack of concern in the market.
What Does the Flattening of the Yield Curve Mean for Gold?
It doesn’t come as a surprise that Wall Street is concerned about a potential slowdown, as the spreads have significantly narrowed between the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields.
How Is the Fed Influencing Precious Metal Demand?
The Fed has hinted that there could be two more interest rate hikes this year, for a total of four hikes in 2018.
What’s the Impact of Interest Rates on Precious Metals?
Monetary policies have been crucial in determining the movement in precious metals.
Why Commodities Have Outperformed Other Assets in 2018
With global rates normalizing, geopolitics still posing major risks, and with one of the longest bull runs in U.S. stocks apparently stalling, 2018 might be a year of paradigm shift.
Are Rising Rates Affecting Housing Markets?
Rising interest rates increase the cost of owning a home for prospective buyers, but the housing market hasn’t yet felt the impact of rate increases.
What Bond Market Investors Are Watching for This Week
The US bond market continued to rebound as trade tensions and the limited appreciation in equity markets pushed demand for bonds higher, depressing the bond yields for a second consecutive week.
How the Yield Spread Changed the Outlook for the Economy
In the May LEI report, the yield spread had a net impact of 0.14 (or 14.0%).
Will Risk-Off Trade Push Bond Markets Higher?
The US bond market had a limited reaction to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate hike and the 0.20% increase in interest paid on excess reserves.
How Markets Reacted to the Fed’s Hawkish Stance
As was widely expected, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, to 1.75%–2%.
Will Bond Market Investors Benefit from Risk-Off Trade?
The US bond market seems to be benefiting from multiple crises around the world.
Strong Jobs Report Had a Limited Impact on the Bond Market
The US bond market was volatile in May. The ten-year yield reached a peak of 3.1% and fell to a low of 2.8% in a span of three weeks.
Are Bond Yields Taking a Breather?
The US bond market had some relief from its ongoing slide as the Fed’s May meeting minutes were less hawkish than expected.
What’s Supporting Gold Prices and What’s Not
On Thursday, silver was up 0.8% to $16.6 an ounce.
How the Fed’s Minutes Played on Precious Metals
On May 23, the Fed’s May meeting minutes gave some support to gold prices as the ten-year Treasury note (IEF) yield dropped almost 5.1 basis points to 3.0%.
Will Yield Spreads Continue to Decline?
The US bond markets remained under selling pressure as bond yields, especially at the short end of the curve, continued to shoot up, while the long-term yields remained subdued.
Why Bond Yields Could Increase This Week
US ten-year bond market yields have scaled a new seven-year peak at 3.07, their highest level since July 2011.
US Yields Peak and Gold Slumps. Are the Dots Connecting?
US ten-year Treasury note yields (IEF) hit a high mark of approximately 3.1% today—a record since July 2011.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Crosses 3% Mark: Stocks, Gold Tank
The benchmark ten-year Treasury bond yields (IEF) have cleared the psychologically important 3% mark again.
Why Last Week’s Events Made the Bond Markets Interesting
US bond market yields continue to trend higher, but their overall movement last week was limited.
Disappointing April Jobs Report: Lower June Rate Hike Odds?
For the week ending May 4, the ten-year (IEF) yield closed at 3% and depreciated by 0.8 basis points. The two-year yield (SHY) closed at 2.50%.
ADP: US Job Market Could Be Overheating
According to the ADP April National Employment Report, US private sector employment added 204,000 jobs in April.
Treasury Yields Hit 3% and Gold Fell: Coincidence?
In addition to the US dollar playing on precious metals, US interest rates and the decisions by the Federal Reserve have also historically had a substantial impact on these safe havens.
Analyzing the Bond Market This Week
This week is important for the bond markets (BSV). Reports are scheduled for inflation, personal income, and non-farm payrolls.
Why Interest Rate Spreads Are Decreasing Again
In April, the yield spread has declined to the lowest level since the Great Recession and could decline further if inflation doesn’t accelerate.
Why Yield Curve Steepening Could Be Short-Lived
The US bond markets were under pressure as the yield curve continued flattening until Wednesday last week.
Bond Market Pain Could Continue This Week
If there aren’t any more negative surprises this week, the US bond market could continue to struggle.
An Economic Arrow in China’s Quiver
China owns close to 20% of the total outstanding US debt, and the total value of these securities is close to $1.2 trillion.
Why Bond Markets Returned to Worrying about Flattening Yield Curve
The US bond markets moved marginally higher in the previous week as investors’ worry about rising bond yields fell after the February inflation print showed stable growth.
Why February’s Jobs Report Had a Negative Impact on Bond Markets
The US bond markets were the only asset class that failed to rally after the February jobs report was released on March 9, 2018.
Tariff-Related Volatility Could Impact Bond Markets
For the week ending March 2, the ten-year yield (IEF) tested 2.9% after Powell’s hawkish comments. However, IEF settled at 2.9% at the end of the week.
Are Bond Market Investors Finding Value in Distress?
The US bond markets managed to gain some lost ground as bond bulls reemerged.
How Interest Rate Fluctuations Could Affect Gold
Much of the attention in precious metal movements is based on fluctuations in the US interest rate.
Will the Bond Market Rebound along with Equity Markets?
US bond markets found some relief in the week ending February 16, as bond yields retreated from their multiyear high at the end of the week.
How the Interest Rate Hike Is Playing on Precious Metals
Another element besides the fluctuations of the US dollar that could have led to the fall in precious metals is the US interest rate.
How the Yield Curve Could Keep Flattening
Long-term yields (TLT) have not appreciated to the same extent as short-term yields, in response to interest rate hikes and changes to the dot-plot.
Is Gold Keeping Tabs on the US Interest Rate?
As we know, precious metals are closely tied to movements in US interest rates. Bonds and equities are both yield-bearing assets, so a rise in yields often causes a slump in demand for assets such as gold and silver.
Are Bond Yields Set to Move Higher this Week?
The US Treasury is not able to issue any more debt until the debt ceiling is raised, which could increase the volatility in the bond markets.
Why the US Bond Market Moved Lower Last Week
The core CPI of 0.3% pushed the annual number up by 0.1% to 1.8%.
The US Bond Market and the Big Scare from China
On January 10, 2018, Bloomberg News broke a story that the Chinese government could be planning to slow down its purchases of US government debt (GOVT).
Interest Rate versus Gold: Interest Rate Wins Again
Gold is a non-yield bearing asset that reacts negatively to rises in the interest rate.
Will Bond Yield Spreads Continue to Get Narrower?
The US bond (BND) markets returned to weakness last week after a minor bout of enthusiasm following the tax cut announcement.
Will Gold Move with US Interest Rates?
Though the precious metal prices have been on an upswing over the past few weeks, the streak could end due to the increased probability of Fed rate hikes in 2018.
What to Make of the Pullback in Bond Yields Last Week
The US FOMC December meeting minutes and the December employment data are key economic data releases that could impact markets this week.
Analyzing the Yield Curve’s Ongoing Flatness
A December rate hike and a flattening yield curve The Fed rolled out another rate hike at its final meeting of 2017. The target range for the federal funds rate was increased by 0.25% to 1.25%–1.50%, and the Fed has signaled three more rate hikes in 2018. Two members dissented to the rate hike due to lower […]
How Gold Reacted to Interest Rate Hike in December
Besides the slump of the US dollar during 2017, the other most important and most talked-about indicator is the US interest rate.
All 4 Precious Metals Rose on December 20, 2017
All four precious metals had an up day on December 20, 2017. Gold increased 0.43% on the day and closed at $1,267.80 per ounce.
Why Bond Market Yields Rose Last Week
The US bond (BND) markets witnessed surprising selling last week despite the passage of the tax reform bill.
Why Bond Market Speculators Increased Bullish Positions Last Week
The Federal Reserve lowered its unemployment rate projection to 3.9% for 2018 and raised its GDP forecast.
How the Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike Affected Precious Metals
Precious metals and miners saw some relief on December 13 after the Fed raised rates as expected. Sibanye Gold (SBGL), Aurico Gold (AUQ), and Goldcorp (GG) rose 3.5%, 3.6%, and 5.8%, respectively.
How Eager Are Precious Metals to Hear the Fed’s Decision?
Gold, silver, and platinum all had a down day on Tuesday, December 13, mainly due to speculations over the Federal Reserve’s pending interest rate decision.
Waiting for the Fed’s Decision: The Reaction of Precious Metals
Although the US dollar has been the most important element contributing to changes in precious metals, the upcoming December meeting of the Federal Reserve has taken all of investors’ attention.
Why Bond Market Speculators Cut Bullish Positions Last Week
The US bond (BND) markets responded to the series of positive economic data releases from the US last week.
Why Bond Market Speculators Are Betting on Further Fall in Yields
The US bond (BND) market performance was mixed for the week ending December 1 as volatility increased.
Could the Federal Reserve Decision Move Precious Metals?
Precious metal market participants will be closely watching the economic numbers that come out of the US, especially those that give an indication of the country’s inflation level.
Interest Rate Rise or No Rise: Where Precious Metals Could Move
Market participants were eyeing the Fed’s meeting minutes that came out on Wednesday, November 22, 2017. Precious metals have a negative relationship to interest rates.
Why Decreasing Credit Spreads Are a Cause for Concern
The November Conference Board report, which takes October data into account, reported the credit spread at ~1.2—an improvement from the September reading of ~1.1.
What Do Speculator Positions Tell Us about the Bond Markets?
The flattening of the US yield curve continued to keep bond market (BND) investors anxious last week.
The Fed’s Implications on Precious Metals
Precious metals rose on Tuesday after their impactful retreat on Monday. The market was eagerly waiting for the Federal Reserve minutes due on Wednesday.
Why Are Bond Market Investors Worried about Yield Curve Flattening?
The US bond markets (BND) remained concerned about the flattening yield curve last week.
Rising Yield’s Impact on Gold
Gold futures for December delivery were down yesterday, touching the day’s low of $1,269.7 per ounce and ending the day at $1,282.9 per ounce.