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  • Disposable Income Is Still Below Historical Averages
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Disposable Income Is Still Below Historical Averages

    Disposable income refers to the income available to a household or individual after paying off personal current taxes. Disposable income is still below historical averages.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Why tight credit spreads usually mean a period of global expansion
    Financials

    Why tight credit spreads usually mean a period of global expansion

    Today, most measures of credit conditions are positive, with tight spreads across all of fixed income. Even high yield spreads have come in after a short scare last month.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Rate hike horizon: September’s jobs report was largely positive

    After September’s strong jobs numbers, a Fed rate hike could be on the horizon early next year. Russ explains two equity market implications.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Lower Yields Have Led to Higher Market Valuation
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How Lower Interest Rates Elevated Market Valuations

    Lower interest rates have an inverse relationship with stock prices, so when interest rates are lower, the S&P 500’s trailing price-to-earnings multiple rises.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Gold Prices Have Declined Lately Due to Rising Real Rates
    Real Insights

    Gold Prices Have Been Flat despite the Weak Dollar

    Gold (IAU) (GLD) prices usually have a strong negative correlation with the US dollar (UUP). Gold, like other commodities, is denominated in the dollar.

    By VanEck
  • Financials

    Recommendation: You should favor longer-dated Treasuries

    The 10-year Treasury yield still appears attractive relative to sovereign rates elsewhere in the world. In addition, longer-dated Treasuries also look more attractive than those with two- to five-year durations.

    By Rick Rieder
  • uploads///goldcboe
    Company & Industry Overviews

    How Stocks and Bonds Reacted to Trump’s Victory

    The CBOE Volatility Index suddenly rose 6.0% on November 9, 2016, after it was clear that Trump had unexpectedly clinched the election.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Part
    Financials

    Must know: Stress tests and the likely timing for rate increases

    On March 26, the U.S. Fed released bank stress test results indicating which banks can increase dividend payouts and share buybacks.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Must-know: Ukraine, Europe, and a flattening Treasury yield curve

    Economic data was positive for stock. This propelled the S&P 500 Index (SPY) (IVV) to record highs in the week ending August 29. Besides economic data, yields were affected by several other factors. These factors were stronger in determining Treasury yield movements last week.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Tech & Comm Services

    Fed’s twin targets—are negative real interest rates needed?

    The Federal budget deficit (the difference between budget collections and the government’s commitments) has also been a key source of uncertainty to both businesses and households.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Why coverage declined for 1-month T-bills despite higher bidding

    Last week’s U.S. Department of the Treasury auction for one-month Treasury bills (or T-bills) was held on October 21. Treasury bills (MINT) worth $34 billion were auctioned, which was $1 billion more than the previous week. Despite the higher supply, the bid-to-cover ratio came in higher than the previous week, and market demand rose.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Why direct bidding was strong for the 10-year T-notes auction

    The US Department of the Treasury holds a ten-year Treasury (IEF) notes auction every month. The ten-year Treasury (UST) yield is a benchmark yield for financial markets.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads/// Year Treasury Note Issuance versus Bid Cover Ratio
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    10-year Treasury notes auction saw weak demand

    The ten-year Treasury notes auction saw a lower bid-to-cover ratio than last month. The ratio was 2.6x—compared to ~3x in December.

    By David Ashworth
  • uploads///Unconstrained Bond Funds Holds Risky Assets Like Derivatives
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Unconstrained Bond Funds Could Be Useful Now

    Unconstrained bond funds use leverage and derivatives in their portfolios, which magnifies their risk. They have exposure to both credit and interest-rate risk.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///What  in  is worth now
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Holding Cash Is Risky In The Long Run

    Holding cash is risky, as it provides negative real returns in the long run.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Major central banks are now diverging in their monetary policies

    Major central banks are now diverging in their monetary policies, a dynamic we saw vividly on display last week with the Federal Reserve ending its quantitative easing (or QE) program, while Japan expanded its version of QE.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Low interest rates have kept bond yields low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Low Interest Rates Have Kept Bond Yields Low

    Weakness in the labor market means low interest rates. The US economy is gaining momentum with stellar growth rates in the last two quarters. It grew by 4.6% in 2Q14.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Treasury yields continue to be on the lower side
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why wage growth could cause rates to rise

    Wage growth could cause rates to rise. A hike in wage rates could boost consumption and encourage individuals outside the labor force to join. This will increase disposable income.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///ACWI
    Financials

    Must-know: Which safe havens are truly safe?

    Although not considered safe haven assets, in the current context of high geopolitical risk and consequently volatility, investors could consider investing in sectors like energy and large cap companies.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Debate increases at the Fed about the future path of policy rates

    The most recent statement made it clear that there’s increasingly active debate within the FOMC over the appropriate path of interest-rate policy given how far the economy has come.

    By Rick Rieder
  • uploads///Inflation Has Been Dipping Over the Last Few Months
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Robust Growth Could Lead to an Early Rate Hike

    Robust growth could lead to an early rate hike—despite low inflation. Low inflation rates are one of the reasons why Treasury yields have remained low.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-know: Why volatility is likely to tick up in September 2014

    While volatility fell over the course of August, the VIX’s daily average for last month was approximately 15% higher than its average over the previous three months.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-know: Market’s reception of the Fed’s July FOMC statement

    Treasury yields on the long-end of the curve, were down since the conclusion of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting on June 18—30-year and ten-year Treasury yields had fallen by 12 bps and three basis points (or bps), respectively over the period June 18 to July 30.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///dbafeededdcae
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Small-Cap Banks Have Been Underperforming

    Small-cap banks have been underperforming due to the yield curve that has been flattening since the start of 2014.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Labor Day barbecues, beaches, and bonds: Why it’s all about balance

    If you’re Matt Tucker, everything reminds you of investing, even the last barbecue of the summer. Read on to discover how your bond portfolio may very well resemble a Labor Day mixed grill.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • Financials

    Why a Fed rate icrease still doesn’t mean higher yields

    Indeed, there are already signs of that increase as central banks back off from so-called quantitative easing. However, the rise in rates is likely to happen more slowly than past rate normalization processes.

    By BlackRock
  • uploads///PMI
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Real US Rates Have Been Climbing

    Real US rates have been climbing, while rates are falling in much of the rest of the world. As Russ explains, this divergence has a number of implications for investors.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Inflation Expectations Are At Multi Year Lows
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Changing Gears to Focus on TIPS Could Be Rewarding

    The market may be too complacent about inflation expectations at the moment. If this is true, this makes TIPS attractive at the moment.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Gold Price Versus US Two and Ten year rate of Interest
    Basic Materials

    How the Rate Hike Trajectory in the United States Impacts Gold

    Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), and Gold Fields (GFI) have declined 5.2%, 5.4%, 6.2%, and 2.8%, respectively.

    By Meera Shawn
  • uploads///The Payroll Figure Missed Estimates in March
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the Disconnect between Indicators and Stock Markets?

    The possible delay in the Fed’s rate hike is causing a disconnect between indicators and stock markets.

    By Rick Rieder
  • uploads///High Yield Bonds Appear Attractive
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    High Yield Offers Attractive Potential in a Yield-Starved World

    In an environment of generally decent, albeit recently disappointing, growth and gently rising yields, high yield offers attractive potential in a yield-starved world.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///US Treasuries Yield Curve
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Job Reports Drive Up Treasury Yields

    US Treasury yields moved uniformly upwards across the yield curve in the week ended June 5, 2015.

    By David Ashworth
  • uploads///Gold versus Two and Ten Year Interest Rates
    Miscellaneous

    Implications of Fed Decisions on Precious Metals and the Dollar

    A rate hike and the dollar are closely tied to each other since a higher interest rate would mean more money flowing into the United States.

    By Meera Shawn
  • uploads///
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will the Bond Market Recovery Continue this Week?

    US bond markets (BND) saw some recovery last week. Overheated expectations for a December rate hike cooled off after the FOMC meeting minutes were reported.

    By Ricky Cove
  • Financials

    Must-know: Janet Yellen’s take on the Fed’s forward guidance

    Central bankers usually provide markets with indications about their economic projections. They also provide information about their future monetary policy stance. The Fed wants to reduce volatility (VXX) in markets by indicating its monetary policy stance. As a result, rate changes won’t surprise the markets as much.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Why the Fed’s policy remains the key driver for US Treasuries

    On August 15, yields on ten-year notes (IEF) and 30-year bonds (TBT) both fell by ten basis points to 2.34% and 3.13%, respectively. This was also their lowest level in over a year.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Why demand is rising for 3-year Treasury notes

    The U.S. Department of the Treasury holds auctions for three-year Treasury notes (or T-notes) each month. Three-year notes are at the short-end of the yield curve.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///US High Yield Bond Fund Flows
    Financials

    Must-know: High yield fund flows regaining strength, time to dip back in?

    After several weeks of record outflows, investors start regaining trust Fund flows gauge where most investors are moving their money. While following this indicator assumes momentum strategies work, in weeks of high inflows, there will be a delay between the time when funds come in and when managers can invest them in assets, so they […]

    By Dale A. Norton
  • uploads///The Non Farm Payroll Figures Have Been Impressive in the Last few Months
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Quest for Yield: Chasing Dividend Stocks

    If you had to sum up investing in the US markets after the Great Recession in a few words, you would probably say something like “the quest for yield.”

    By Sanmit Amin
  • Financials

    Japanese corporates’ increased share buybacks could support markets

    Japanese companies are more shareholder-friendly, as the government pushes to strengthen corporate governance. Stock buybacks have reached their highest level in six years in an effort to boost return on equity.

    By Heidi Richardson
  • Financials

    Analyzing Treasury yields ahead of the Fed’s September 2014 FOMC

    Markets chose to treat the less-than-satisfactory labor market data as a blip. Job creation had been very strong in 2014. Total non-farm payrolls had crossed pre-recession levels.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Recommendation: Keep municipal bonds in mind

    While no longer cheap per se after their extraordinary run in 2014, municipal bonds continue to look attractive versus both Treasuries and corporate bonds.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    4 ways to increase your corporate bond exposure

    Record low U.S. Treasury rates continue to push investors to find yield elsewhere, and it seems that corporations are rushing to meet the demand. Matt Tucker explains.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • uploads///High yield bonds outperformed investment grade and Treasury bonds during the last period of rising rates
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why You Should Favor Credit over Duration When it Comes to Bonds

    Favor credit over duration as interest rates rise. Look for tactical opportunities within fixed income.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund LQD
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Greece Worries Lead Investors to Investment-Grade Bonds

    The Federal Open Market Committee’s June statement didn’t elicit a strong reaction in either direction from investment-grade bonds, especially not from Treasuries.

    By David Ashworth
  • uploads///REITS
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Defensive Stocks And REITs Look Overpriced

    REITs are providing an average dividend yield of 3.5%, so investors are drawn to them. This is causing rich valuations and making REITs look overpriced.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The Federal Funds Rate Has Been Stuck at around  for over  Years
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Softer Rebound Could Move Markets in the 2Q

    A softer rebound could move markets in the second quarter. If the economy remains weak in the second quarter, the Fed has some leeway to maneuver the rate.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Trade Between Britain and the US
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Has the Brexit Vote Derailed US Monetary Policy?

    After the policy meeting in June, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the Brexit vote could impact US monetary policy.

    By David Ashworth
  • Financials

    Why Kocherlakota says price targeting beats inflation targeting

    Along with the two suggestions mentioned in Part 6 of this series, Narayana Kocherlakota also dropped in two additional suggestions for improving the FOMC framework statement.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • Financials

    Unique opportunities for investors given new monetary policy outlook

    I’ve discussed on The Blog how an investor can think of the federal funds rate and QE as a gas pedal. Sometimes it’s good to ease off a bit to limit the pace of acceleration.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • uploads///Treasury yield curve
    Financials

    Why Treasury note yields fell, while Treasury bond yields rose

    Yields for intermediate-term maturities fell by two to four basis points, and those for longer-term (20-30 years) maturities rose by six to ten basis points.

    By Mike Sonnenberg
  • uploads///Bond ETFs Have Had a Tough Time in
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Where Can You Find Relative Value within Fixed Income?

    Where’s the relative value within fixed income? High yield bonds appear relatively attractive.

    By Jeffrey Rosenberg
  • Financials

    Must-know: An overview of the 52-week Treasury bills auction

    The U.S. Treasury auctioned $102 billion worth of Treasury bills (or T-bills) last week. The 52-week, or one-year, auction was held on September 16. The auction size was set at $25 billion—unchanged from August’s auction. The auction demand was slightly lower, with the bid-to-cover ratio falling to 4.06x—compared to 4.10x in August. The ratio averaged ~4.41x in 2014.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    What caused the sharp drop in yields last week?

    A number of market watchers attributed Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury yield move to fears about a global economic slowdown, heightened geopolitical unrest, growing worry over the Ebola health risk and uncertainty about Fed policy.

    By Rick Rieder
  • Financials

    Why last week’s sharp dip in yields came as a surprise

    And though the 10-year yield recovered somewhat Thursday as Treasury prices dropped, Wednesday’s dip below 2% came as a surprise.

    By Rick Rieder
  • Financials

    Why low correlations between asset classes benefit investors

    A diversified portfolio—one in which funds are divided among various asset classes, like stocks, bonds, or real estate—would usually have lower risk than an non-diversified portfolio.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Must-know: The success of the Fed’s taper on bond yields

    At the September meeting, the Fed announced that it would taper monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion. The monthly bond purchases would be $15 billion per month starting in October. Monthly bond purchases would now consist of $10 billion in longer-term Treasuries (BND) and $5 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Why you can expect the upward-sloping yield curve to continue

    Tight monetary policy doesn’t seem to be in the cards—at least in the near future. The yield curve should remain upward-sloping for some time.

    By Mike Sonnenberg
  • Industrials

    Why Treasury yields across maturities didn’t change much

    Last week didn’t see much movement in yields across maturities, as investors exercised caution on the backdrop of the ongoing FOMC meeting.

    By Mike Sonnenberg
  • uploads///The ss spread compressed after the QE announcement
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Did the German 2s30s Spread Dip on Quantitative Easing?

    The 2s30s spread is the difference between the yield on the 30-year bond (TLT) and the yield on the two-year bond (SHY).

    By Jeffrey Rosenberg
  • Financials

    Why leveraged buyout debt deals mark record first half in 2014

    Leveraged loan (BKLN) mutual funds continued to see investors exit for the eighth consecutive week, with net outflows of $457 million last week.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Why Fisher and Plosser disagreed with the FOMC policy motion

    Richard Fisher believes that the Fed needs to tighten policy. This is based on the improved labor market and inflation outlook. He also believes that continued monetary accommodation is causing signs of “financial excess” in certain asset classes. He spoke earlier about signs of froth in high-yield bond (JNK) (HYG) markets.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Must-know: Working the municipal bond portfolio

    Flex more muni muscle with a flexible municipal fund. “Unconstrained” investing has gotten quite a bit of press this year.

    By Peter Hayes
  • Financials

    Understanding the Fed’s yield curve can impact your bond returns

    The yield curve is a graph that plots interest rates at different maturities with the same credit quality that can range from a month to 30 years or more.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Why investors are turning to corporate bond ETFs

    Investors seeking exposure to investment grade or high yield corporate debt have increasingly been using fixed income ETFs.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • Financials

    Why Fed and Bank of Japan monetary policies are at odds

    Last week, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its own version of quantitative easing. This announcement came shortly after an inflation report showed that Japan’s CPI has dipped to 1%, meaningfully below its target.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Company & Industry Overviews

    Why economic data influenced high-grade bond yields

    Economic data usually influences investment-grade bond yields, including Treasuries (TLT) and corporates (AGG) (LQD). Yields tend to fall on negative economic data. They rise when economic data is positive. Demand for safer investment-grade debt rises when economic growth concerns surface. This tends to raise their price and lower yields.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Why debt levels are high despite deleveraging efforts

    As my colleague Russ Koesterich mentions in a recent Blog post, deleveraging has taken place in the financial sector, but other segments have continued to grow and issue more debt.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • uploads///Federal funds rate has remained low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Excessively Low Rates Could Be Harmful

    Excessively low rates have side effects. Treasury yields have been beaten down due to the Fed’s excessive buying. Currently, the ten-year Treasury (IEF) yields are 2.1%.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Consumer

    Must-know: Important US releases point to a stronger economy

    Meanwhile, outside of the jobs report, other U.S. economic releases are painting a consistently positive picture of the domestic economy.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads/// BLR
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Assessing Sovereign Bonds amid Heightened Global Uncertainty

    Global uncertainty, Brexit, and the prospect of further easing from central banks in developed markets have spurred demand for government debt.

    By Richard Turnill
  • Financials

    Assessing high yield bonds as part of your fixed income portfolio

    The decadent offering of barbecued ribs at a weekend party is similar to that of high yield fixed income investments. By taking on greater risk of spilling sauce on your shirt you have the experience of a true summertime staple…

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • uploads///Flattening Yield Curve
    Company & Industry Overviews

    What Does the Flattening Yield Curve Indicate for Investors?

    Bond markets are experiencing rising yields due to higher economic growth expectations. However, the 10-Year Treasury yield was still low at 2.4% on March 29, 2017

    By Mary Sadler
  • uploads///US Economic Growth Stalled in the Fourth Quarter
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why You Should Look Beyond Treasuries for Portfolio Ballast

    Last year, the correlation between stocks and Treasuries increased. Adding Treasuries to an only-equity portfolio became less valuable.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Why you can expect the Fed to raise rates by the end of Q1 2015

    Maintaining monetary policy accommodation at “emergency levels” appears both unnecessary and potentially disruptive to the proper functioning of financial markets today.

    By Rick Rieder
  • uploads///part Vix index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Global Market Uncertainty, Resurrected

    Risk aversion is on the rise again as investors begin to question President Trump’s trade policies and as we’ve begun to see changes in asset allocations.

    By Ricky Cove
  • Financials

    Why investors should recognize key trends in US Treasuries

    Last week, June 6–13, we saw yield increases for all coupon-bearing Treasury maturities except for 20- and 30-year maturities.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • Financials

    Must-know: Charles Evans discusses monetary policy in Istanbul

    The Fed’s main policy tool, the funds rate, has been at near zero levels since December, 2008.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///bonds havent seen bear mkt
    Financials

    Ray Dalio: Bonds Haven’t Had a Bear Market in Decades!

    “The potential for relatively big losses in bonds worries us because bonds effectively haven’t had a bear market in decades,” said Ray Dalio.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///Dot Plot
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will November Jobs Report Give Fed the Green Light to Hike Rates?

    Fed policymakers are watching the job data closely, as it gives them insight as to whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand interest rates hikes.

    By Anuradha Garg
  • Financials

    Why Treasury and mortgage rate spreads hit historic highs

    The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury securities (IEF) and 30-year conventional mortgages (VMBS) was at historic highs at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///Federal funds rate has remained low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Low Interest Rates Have Affected Asset Prices And Yields

    Low interest rates have supported the economy, but another side effect of low interest rates is that it discourages household savings.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • Macroeconomic Analysis

    Assessing the long-term structural issues plaguing the US

    The improving economy still faces long-term structural issues like slow wage growth, below-trend consumption and a shrinking labor force participation rate.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Federal Funds Rate at near zero levels
    Financials

    Stay flexible: Why you need a dynamic bond portfolio

    With interest rates volatile and market conditions changing, these are tricky times for bond markets. Rick Rieder outlines three ways markets are evolving, and suggests that staying flexible will be critical.

    By Rick Rieder
  • Tech & Comm Services

    Must-know: Unusual outcomes arising from low interest rates

    When real interest rates decline, the prices of long-term bonds increase because bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///FF rate
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why liquid alts may be preferred in a rising rate environment

    Liquid alts provide a way to generate income while preserving capital in the face of an anticipated rise in interest rates.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///TIPS are more expensive than regular treasury bonds
    Financials

    Asset class analysis: Measuring up TIPS as an inflation hedge

    I’m not that enthusiastic about this asset class because TIPS are currently not cheap. In fact, in this environment the real return on a TIP, i.e. how much money an investor gets back after inflation – is actually negative.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads/// Year Treasury Bond Issuance versus Bid Cover Ratio
    Company & Industry Overviews

    What Happened at the US Treasury Auctions in the Week Ending June 10?

    It’s expected that the Fed may increase the interest rate soon, and 30-year Treasury bonds auction are closely watched by stock and bond investors.

    By Lynn Noah
  • Macroeconomic Analysis

    Use caution when investing with a barbell fixed income strategy

    You’ll find that the principal appreciation from falling rates at the long end (IEF)(VCLT) may make up for a large part of the shortfall in yields at the short end (SJNK).

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///Part
    Real Insights

    What Caused the Muni Defaults in 2016?

    In 2016, Puerto Rico defaulted on constitutionally guaranteed GO (general obligation) bonds. On May 3, 2017, Puerto Rico filed for Title III bankruptcy.

    By VanEck
  • uploads///Federal funds rate has remained low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Bonds Could Underperform In 2015

    Interest rates and bond yields are already at very low levels. Inflation could pick up and lead to a rate hike. So, bonds could underperform going forward.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-know: Divergence is the new trend in the global economy

    Economic growth is strengthening in some parts of the world, while it’s slipping in others. In other words, as I mentioned in a post earlier this week, the major trend in the global economy is one of increasing divergence, rather than slower growth.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    The Fed ends its asset purchase program at the October FOMC meeting

    In December 2008, when the U.S. economy entered its dreadful recessionary phase, the Federal Reserve (or Fed) reduced the federal funds rate to nearly zero in order to stimulate household and business spending and support economic recovery.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • Financials

    Must-read advice for investors considering TIPS

    From TIPS to “phantom income” to varying distributions — Matt Tucker is here to explain what they are and how they are related.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • uploads///austin distel oGeqpxPQ unsplash
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Where Are Bond Markets Headed?

    Rising US-China trade tensions have caused all assets, and especially bond markets, to move considerably over the last few sessions.

    By Sanmit Amin
  • uploads///bonds as ballast
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Building with Buffer: The Case for Bonds

    Bonds and stocks are negatively correlated. This is why bonds can act as a ballast in your portfolio, and thus the case for bonds is still strong while building with buffer.

    By Dennis Stattman
  • Financials

    Recommendation: Look to select areas of emerging market debt

    Select areas of the EM debt sector hold good potential, as many of these countries exhibit low leverage levels and are currently funded through year-end.

    By Rick Rieder
  • uploads///Risk return metric for bonds
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How Various Asset Classes Compare Using The Risk-Return Metric

    The risk-return metric for ten-year Treasuries (IEF) are lowest, but also the safest, with a paltry 1.3% volatility and with an average yield of 4.1%.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
  • uploads///The Yield Curve Tends to Flatten When the Fed Funds Rate Rises
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Higher Interest Rates Could Cause a Flatter Yield Curve

    A rate hike could cause a flatter yield curve. With the US economy on strong footing, the Fed is poised to hike interest rates later this year.

    By Rick Rieder
  • uploads///
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Bond Markets Were Weak Last Week

    Positive economic data, higher chances for tax reform, and the possibility of a market-friendly Fed chair spelled trouble for the US bond markets last week.

    By Ricky Cove
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