Adam Jones

The short interest position on a stock is one quick way to gauge the bullish and bearish sentiment on a stock.

Should investors be paying a high premium for the company’s high growth? When compared to its peers, Shake Shack seems overvalued.

Natural gas prices are critical for nitrogen and ammonia-based phosphate fertilizer producers.

Unit growth isn’t the only factor that drives revenue. A restaurant can keep adding more restaurants. Eventually, it can capture newer markets. This is what Chipotle is doing.

PotashCorp (POT), the largest producer of potash fertilizers in North America, has fallen 7.0% year-to-date (or YTD).

The expected capital expenditure index increased by 1% to 101.7 in April from 100.7 in March.

Mosaic (MOS) released its 2Q17 earnings on August 1, 2017, and reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.28, which beat analysts’ estimate of $0.25.

Phosphate fertilizer prices are key to Mosaic’s (MOS) Phosphate segment’s sales, earnings, and stock price.

In 2013, about 54% of global ammonia was upgraded to urea, according to FERTECON. But urea prices have rebounded from their lows at the beginning of 2016.

Granular urea prices in the Middle East declined 5% to $200 per metric ton in the week ended July 1. It was $210 per metric ton in the previous week.

Like CF Industries’ (CF) sales, its margins are also expected to expand YoY (year-over-year) in Q2 2018 and the next four quarters.

Ammonia is used to make phosphate fertilizers like DAP (diammonium phosphate) and MAP (monoammonium phosphate).

For the week ending October 28, the overall movement in urea prices was flat to positive. Granular urea prices rose 6.6% to $211 per metric ton in China.

Last week, potash prices continued to show weakness week-over-week. Prices were broadly flat to positive for the week ending April 21.

Of the 22 analysts surveyed, about 32% of them gave Mosaic (MOS) a “buy” rating. About 41% of analysts issued a “hold” rating, and only 27% issued a “sell” rating.

With CF Industries’ production capacity increasing, its cash flow per ton of product is also expected to increase.

Overall, 4Q15 potash shipments declined 16% to 1,931 thousand tons, from 2,039 thousand tons in 4Q14. Most of the decline came from the international crop nutrient shipments.

Over the next four quarters ending in 3Q17, Agrium’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margin is estimated to expand to 12%.

For each of the next four quarters, Intrepid Potash’s EBITDA is estimated to grow YoY. For 1Q17, analysts estimate EBITDA of $2.6 million.

Agrium’s Wholesale segment’s gross margins declined from 27% in 1Q15 to 24% in 1Q16. This was primarily driven by a decline in gross margins in the Nitrogen and Phosphates segments.

Phosphates and potash have been significantly lower year-over-year. It appears that investors already priced in the limited upside for Mosaic well before the downgrade.

The week ending March 24, 2017, was broadly negative for agricultural fertilizer stocks. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 0.98%.

Initial jobless claims can help us gauge the health of the US labor market. It indicates the number of people filing for unemployment.

Over the past four quarters, Starbucks’s same-store sales growth has increased due to growth in ticket and traffic.

In the last 12 months, PotashCorp (POT) has earned about 36% of its total sales from its Potash segment.

Last week was mostly negative for agricultural fertilizer (FXZ) stocks. However, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) ended the week in positive territory.

Valuation multiples CF Industries (CF) has performed dismally in 2016. With the stock returning -41% YTD (year-to-date), it has left some investors in an uncomfortable position. In this part, we’ll discuss CF’s valuation multiple and compare it with that of peers (IYM). Multiples trading higher Recently, the forward PE (price-to-earnings) multiples of the four major […]

Agrium’s (AGU) earnings for 1Q17 are estimated to fall from $0.05 per share in 1Q16 to -$0.06 per share.

Agrium’s (AGU) Retail segment’s shipments declined by 0.03% to 4.84 million tons in 2Q16, down from 4.86 million tons in 2Q15.

CF Industries’ (CF) earnings have been falling for the past five years, and it reported negative earnings in 4Q16.

Although beef prices recently increased slightly, they’ve been on a downtrend trend since the beginning of 2015. They’re expected to remain elevated for the rest of 2015.

Agrium (AGU) earns most of its revenues from its retail sales channel. However, when it comes to gross margins, the wholesale channel is more profitable.

Domino’s added more units internationally last quarter. The company added a total of 662 units in the last 12 months.

PotashCorp’s 3Q16 sales PotashCorp’s (POT) business comprises the three major fertilizers—nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium (XLB). In 3Q16, the company earned about 38% [1. calculated as segment sales excluding freight, transportation and distribution costs divided by total sales excluding freight, transportation, and distribution costs] of its total sales from its Potash segment, 32% from its Nitrogen segment, and 30% from […]

Canopy Growth (WEED) (CGC) is expected to report a loss per share of ~0.15 Canadian dollars.

According to CF Industries, nitrogen prices could remain under pressure as new capacities come online in 2017. However, the company believes that things should improve in 2018.

Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil continued their uptrend, while prices in NOLA (New Orleans) moved sideways.

Looking at analysts’ ratings for Starbucks, about 79% of analysts have “buy” recommendations for Starbucks, 21% have “hold” recommendations, and none has “sell” recommendations.

Unlike PotashCorp (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and CF Industries (CF), Agrium (AGU) has a large retail business, giving the company more stability in earnings.

CF Industries (CF) reported its quarterly earnings on August 2, 2017. Its EPS was $0.10, which was in line with analysts’ consensus estimate.

Out of the 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, 36% had a “buy” rating, 50% had a “hold” rating, and only 14% had a “sell” rating on Mosaic.

Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) refreshed Carrabba’s menu in the first half of 2014 with a price point and variety in mind.

As of January 23, 2017, one of the six analysts covering Intrepid Potash has a “buy” recommendation for the company over the next 12 months.

Where are some of the major restaurant companies such as Starbucks, Chipotle, Panera, and Yum! Brands trading from a valuation standpoint? Over the past month, US markets have experienced high volatility.

Mosaic (MOS) earned about 34.0% of its revenue and 28.0% of its gross margin from its International Distribution segment in 4Q16.

With the exception of Aphria, Tilray, Canopy Growth, and Aurora Cannabis were trading at a premium to the peer median EV-to-EBITDA multiple.

With a gross deficit, Intrepid Potash reported an adjusted net loss per share of $0.23 in 2Q16, which would also make it the fifth consecutive quarter that the company has reported a net adjusted loss.

Tilray (TLRY) stock fell as much as 5.5% last week, while Supreme Cannabis (SPRWF) fell ~4.4% in the week ending May 3.

Jim Cramer said Altria’s acquisition of a 45% stake in Cronos Group last week was a “smart move” for Altria.

Management stated that it expects the second quarter EPS to lag by 20% YoY. It expects full-year EPS growth of 10% in 2015.

On June 18, Canaccord Genuity cut its target price on Aphria (APHA) to 16 Canadian dollars from 18 Canadian dollars. Canaccord also lowered its revenue estimates for the company.

Yum! Brands has a forward PE ratio of 25x. This indicates that the stock is valued fairly. It’s a stable company with a long history of EPS growth.

In this part, we’ll look at how the company’s valuation PE (price-to-earnings multiple) affects Panera’s stock price.

Since the beginning of 2016, analysts have revised their next-12-month price target for PotashCorp downward. The consensus price target now stands at $15.70.

In the week ending January 20, average MAP prices in Brazil rose 2.1% to $343 per metric ton from $336 per metric ton the previous week.

CF Industries reported second-quarter sales of $1.3 billion, which beat analysts’ estimate of $1.2 billion.

Domino’s Pizza reported its 2Q15 earnings before the market opened on July 16. Its diluted EPS came in at $0.81, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.79 per share.

Average DAP prices in China were flat at 2,669 Chinese yuan per metric ton last week. DAP prices in Morocco remained unchanged at $340 per metric ton.

Constellation Brands said that Canopy Growth is a platform that can cater to medical and recreational customers.

Through Cronos Group’s partnership with Ginko Bioworks, the company aims to produce cannabis through fermentation.

Weakness in the cannabis sector continued last week, especially after HEXO (HEXO) reported its earnings on June 12. HEXO’s earnings largely disappointed the market, and the stock plunged almost 16% in the following days. HEXO’s YTD returns stood at 59% as of June 14 despite the sell-off after its earnings.

Over the years, Intrepid Potash (IPI) has shifted its business model to focus more on Trio.

In this article, we’ll compare the company’s potash cost of goods per ton to its average selling price per ton and those of other players in the market.

During the first nine months of 2015, Potash Corporation’s free cash flows declined to $913 million from $1,175 million in the corresponding period in 2014. This was primarily due to a decline in potash prices.

The average DAP price at US Gulf NOLA for the week ended March 25 rose to $340 per metric ton ($308 per short ton) compared to $302 per metric ton ($333 per short ton) the previous week.

Bloomin’ Brands’ revenue was affected by as much as 0.7% due to price increases for beef and seafood. A restaurant can do little when facing rising prices

The expected capital expenditure index increased by 0.9% to 100.8 in May from 101.7 in April.

The Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMMJ) had fallen by about 1.2% as of noon on March 20, while the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) had declined by nearly 0.8%.

Wall Street analysts’ estimated EBITDA for the fourth quarter is $633 million—compared to $918 million in the same quarter last year.

Following its dismal performance in 3Q15, Yum! decided to release its same-store sales growth performance for China on a monthly basis.

Analysts expect Aurora Cannabis to report a gross income of 177 million Canadian dollars in 2019 and 508 million Canadian dollars in 2020.

On October 20, Yum! announced that it will separate its China division from the rest of its business. It’s expected to complete this by the end of 2016.

CF Industries has resorted to leverage to fund its projects, which are expected to create more nitrogen capacity and, in turn, benefit shareholders.

In September, the global wheat inventory declined 1.5% to 249 million metric tons compared with 252 million metric tons in August 2016.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) generates revenue from potash, or muriate of potash, and Trio, which is the company’s brand name for sulfate of potash magnesia.

Same-store sales at Jack in the Box’s company-operated restaurants are expected to grow 4%–6% in 3Q15 and 4.5%–5.5% for the year. Qdoba’s sales are expected to increase 6%–8%.

For phosphorous fertilizers, 2018 will be the year in which the biggest capacity additions will occur, according to PotashCorp (POT).

Starbucks (SBUX) reported earnings per share of $0.46 for 1Q16, which exceeded Wall Street’s consensus estimates as well as management’s guidance of $0.45 per share.

Pork prices have dropped significantly in 2015 from the high of $1.38 per pound in June 2014 to the low of $0.65 per pound in March 2015.

Canopy Growth is one of the strongest players in the cannabis industry with a market cap of ~24 billion Canadian dollars.

Cronos Group (CRON) has been on a declining trend for a while. The stock rose to a peak of ~30 Canadian dollars in February.

PotashCorp’s average potash selling price fell ~34.0% to $157 per ton in 4Q16, from $238 per ton in 4Q15. Potash prices in North America fell ~35.0%.

On February 13, Intrepid Potash (IPI) rose 15.2% and closed at $2.27 from the previous day’s close, while the S&P 500 Index closed 52 basis points higher.

Markets rebounded today after the recent sell-off fueled by US-China trade tensions.

CF Industries Holdings’ (CF) stock rose by almost 8.4% on February 18, 2016, the day after the company’s 4Q15 earnings release.

Shake Shack (SHAK) has an enterprise-value-to-revenue multiple of 13.9x, compared to the peer average of 3.5x.

Like Monsanto (MON), FMC Corporation (FMC) is in the business of crop protection products. The majority of FMC’s sales come from its Agricultural Solutions segment.

Overall, the nitrogen prices have weakened in 3Q15, falling to $319 per metric ton from $356 per metric ton in 3Q14.

High food inflation can squeeze a restaurant’s operating margins—particularly if it doesn’t pass on the cost to consumers.

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) is expected to release its first quarter 2015 earnings on April 23. Year-to-date, the stock is up 5%.

On February 5, 2018, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) (ACBFF) issued a press release that gave details on its latest investment in Liquor Stores NA (LIQ).

On February 2, 2017, only three of the 20 analysts covering Mosaic (MOS) stock gave the company a “strong buy” to a “buy” recommendation for the next 12 months.

With disappointing same-store sales performance across all four segments, it isn’t surprising that McDonald’s reported revenues of $6,987 million—a 4.5% decline.

As of September 20, 2014, year-to-date (or YTD) returns for Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) was -30.7%.

Potash prices have fallen significantly over the years. This trend has put pressure on existing companies to justify their expansion costs.

CMG reported $372 million in food costs in 3Q14. Food costs accounted for 34.3% of the revenue. It was an increase of 70 basis points year-over-year (or YoY).

Analysts’ consensus price target for Monsanto is $122.70 per share over the next 12 months.

CF Industries (CF) is expected to see a significant reduction in its capital expenditure (or capex) year-over-year (or YoY) in 2Q17 and for the next four quarters.

Aurora Cannabis (ACB) reported its Q2 earnings yesterday, which gave us a glimpse of recreational cannabis sales activity and what to expect from peers’ (MJ) upcoming earnings.

Mosaic (MOS) and PotashCorp (POT) were hit the hardest, with their respective shipments declining by 24% each to 1.5 million tons and 1.7 million tons year-over-year.