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US Dollar Fell from a 3-Month High: Good News for Oil Bulls

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US dollar 

The US Dollar Index hit 95.15 on October 27, 2017—the highest level in three months. However, it fell from a three-month peak and settled at 94.82 on October 27, 2017. It helped US crude oil (USO) (UCO) prices on the same day. Oil prices are at the eight-month high. Volatility in oil prices impacts oil producers (VDE) (IEZ) like Marathon Oil (MRO), Sanchez Energy (SN), Murphy Oil (MUR), and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP).

The US economy or GDP rose 3% in 3Q17—compared to the market’s expectations of 2.5%. The better-than-expected economic growth supported the US dollar (UUP) on October 27, 2017. The US equity markets (SPY) (QQQ) are at record levels, which also supported the US dollar.

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Highs and lows 

The US dollar (USDU) hit 103.8 on January 3, 2017—the highest level in 14 years. In contrast, it hit a low of 90.99 on September 8, which was the lowest level in 33 months.

US dollar drivers 

The improving US economy and tax reforms could drive the US dollar. The Fed could raise the US interest rates in December 2017, which could help the US dollar. 

According to Bloomberg, President Trump might pick Fed Governor Jerome Powell as the new head of the US central bank. The introduction of a tax bill on November 1, 2017, could also drive the US dollar. 

US dollar and crude oil 

Crude oil (OIL) (DBO) and the US dollar prices are usually inversely related. The strong US dollar could cap the upside for crude oil prices.

Next, we’ll analyze how Cushing oil inventories impact oil prices.

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