Valero Energy Corp
Certain Stocks Jumped Post-Katrina, Influenced by Economic Factors
Valero Energy’s Prospects in 2021, Rebound in Energy and Gas
Why Is Tesoro Stock on a Roller Coaster Ride?
Tesoro stock, continuing its 2015 downtrend, had a weak opening to 2016. TSO traded below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.
Brent-WTI Spread Could Support Downstream Stocks and Oil Exports
On July 23, Brent crude oil September futures settled ~$5.17 higher than WTI crude oil September futures.
HollyFrontier Stock Has Recovered 5.5% in 2019
HollyFrontier (HFC) stock has risen 5.5% since January 2. The stock has risen less than its peers Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero (VLO).
Andeavor’s Decent Growth Expectations for the Second Quarter
We began this series by ranking the growth in refiners’ second-quarter earnings. In the preceding two parts, we looked at the two highest probable growth achievers for Q2 2018.
How Valero’s Institutional Holdings Shape up Pre-3Q16 Earnings
Valero Energy’s institutional holdings currently stand at ~86% and have fallen since the end of February 2016, when its institutional holdings stood at 98%.
HFC and PSX: Which Company Could Post the Most Gains?
After HollyFrontier’s earnings, RBC lowered its target price on the stock from $68 to $66.
MPC-ANDV Merger Could Create Massive Refining Capabilities
The merged entity would have 16 refineries with around 3 million barrels per day (or MMbpd) of capacity spread across the US.
Why analysts were surprised by distillate inventories last week
It’s expected distillate production will grow by the end of 2014. Refineries have built new facilities to produce more distillates than gasoline in anticipation of strong global demand growth.
Refiners’ 4Q17 Estimates: Ranking MPC, VLO, PSX, ANDV on Earnings
In this series, we’ll be sorting refining stocks in terms of earnings expectations for 4Q17. If we rank them on their likely YoY growth in EPS, then Andeavor (ANDV) occupies the top slot.
Will Marathon Petroleum’s Q1 Earnings Rise?
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is scheduled to report its first-quarter results on May 8.
Valero’s 4Q15 Estimates Suggest Two Big Words: Under Pressure
In 4Q15, according to Wall Street analyst estimates, Valero is expected to post EPS of $1.40, which would be 23% lower than its 4Q14 adjusted EPS.
Analyzing HollyFrontier’s Refining Margin in 2018
HollyFrontier’s refining segment is critical for its overall earnings. The refining segment’s adjusted EBITDA rose 127% to $1.7 billion in 2018.
How Did Tesoro’s Refining Margin Trend in 3Q16?
Tesoro (TSO) noted a contraction in its GRM (gross refining margin) by $10.4 per barrel YoY (year-over-year) to $9.1 per barrel in 3Q16.
Must-know effects of the Ukraine crisis on your oil investments
The immediate effect of the current crisis between Russia and Ukraine is that it has likely provided some support to oil prices and caused some volatility in oil prices.
Valero’s Liquidity: Does It Justify High Shareholder Returns?
Valero’s liquidity In 1H17, Valero Energy (VLO) generated $2785 million in cash from operations. The company had cash outflows of $880 million in the form of capital expenditure and deferred turnaround and catalyst costs and $627 million in the form of dividends. Valero’s liquidity surplus Valero’s cash outflows amounted to around $1507 million in 1H17, […]
How Is Marathon Petroleum’s Leverage Trending?
Marathon Petroleum’s solvency ratios are higher than the industry average, which is not a comfortable situation.
Where Do Institutional Holdings in Phillips 66 Stand?
Institutional holdings in Phillips 66 currently stand at ~69%. This level indicates confidence or sentiment from sophisticated market participants.
Valero Ranks 2nd in Dividend Yield and Market Capitalization
Valero Energy (VLO) is the second-highest dividend-yielding stock among the seven refining stocks we’re looking at in this series.
Breaking down Phillips 66’s Capital Expenditure
With refining modernization projects and midstream and chemical expansion projects, Phillips 66 is set to create a growth-oriented diversified earnings model.
Marathon Petroleum’s Earnings Mix by Segment
Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) operating income rose 51% yearly to $440 million in the first quarter. The rise in midstream earnings mainly led to the rise in operating income.
Distillate inventories continued to decline
Distillate demand and stock levels drive crude demand and crude prices. As a result, energy investors watch distillate inventories closely.
Where Analysts’ Ratings Stand for Tesoro after Its 3Q16 Earnings
The highest and lowest 12-month price targets for Tesoro’s stock stand at $120 and $84, respectively.
How PSX’s Implied Volatility Trended Post-Earnings
Phillips 66 (PSX) posted its earnings on July 29, 2016. On the day, PSX’s implied volatility fell by 5% to 23.2 compared to the previous day.
Valero Energy’s Analyst Recommendations: No “Sell” Ratings
Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, and Wolfe Research have positive recommendations for the stock. They gave price targets equal to $80 per share or above.
Which MLPs Rose More than 6% Last Week?
Seadrill Partners (SDLP), the MLP involved mainly in offshore drilling, continued to be among the top MLP gainers for the second consecutive week.
Which Region Dragged on Valero’s Per-Barrel Earnings?
Valero Energy witnessed a fall across the board in its refining operating income in 3Q16. The US West Coast saw the largest fall in its per-barrel refining operating earnings.
Refining Stocks and WTI: A Correlation Analysis
Let’s analyze the correlations between oil prices and the top four American refiners: Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), Tesoro (TSO), and Phillips 66 (PSX).
Crude Oil Prices and Refinery Margins: Catalysts for Gasoline Prices
The EIA’s weekly gasoline and diesel fuel price update released on January 11, 2016. It showed that US regular gasoline prices averaged $1.99 per gallon.
Trend Watch: Tesoro’s Refining Margins in 1Q17
In 1Q17 to date, Tesoro’s refining index values have shown a mixed trend compared to 4Q16, quarter-over-quarter.
Phillips 66: 2Q17 Earnings Beat Estimates, Refining Earnings Rose
In 2Q17, Phillips 66’s revenues missed Wall Street analysts’ estimates by 1%. However, its 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $1.09 surpassed estimates of $1.01.
Valero’s Stock Rose 5% Following Its Earnings Release
Valero Energy (VLO) announced its results on October 25, 2016, before the markets opened.
Did MPC, ANDV, VLO, and PSX’s Debt Positions Improve in Q1 2018?
In the first quarter, Valero observed the highest rise in its net debt. VLO’s net debt rose 42.0% sequentially to $4.3 billion.
Why Does Marathon Petroleum Have Mixed Valuations?
Currently, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) trades at a forward PE ratio of 9.0x, which is below the peer average of 9.9x.
Waiting for the Numbers: Valero’s 4Q15 Earnings and Refining Margin Trend
In 3Q15, Valero noted a rise in its gross refining margin by $2.6 per barrel to $14.4 per barrel, compared to what we saw in 3Q14.
The Forecast for Andeavor’s Stock Price before Its 4Q17 Earnings
Implied volatility in ANDV has risen sharply by 13.8% since January 2, 2018, to its current level of 32.9%.
Who among MPC, VLO, HFC, and PSX Has the Highest Refining Margin?
In this article, we’ll compare the gross refining margins of leading American downstream companies.
Why Andeavor Has so Many ‘Buy’ Ratings among US Refiners
Of the 17 analysts covering Andeavor (ANDV), 15 (88%) have rated the stock a “buy” so far in August 2017. Two analysts have rated ANDV a “hold.”
Has Correlation of Refining Stocks with WTI Surged in the Past Month?
The correlation coefficient of VLO and WTI has risen to 0.51 in the past one-month period compared to 0.07 in the past one-year period.
Delek Ranks Fourth: Have Analysts Started Disliking It?
In this article, we’ll look at the fourth refiner on our list: Delek US Holdings (DK). Delek has 56% “buy” ratings from analysts.
Marathon Petroleum’s Returns: Will Dividends Rise?
Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) dividend payments have been growing steadily for the past few years.
Do Marathon Petroleum’s Valuations Stand above Peer Averages?
Currently, MPC trades at a forward PE (price-to-earnings) ratio of 14.8x, above its peer average of 13.8x.
Your Segmental Analysis of Marathon Petroleum’s 4Q15 Results
On a sequential basis, Marathon’s operating income fell by 78%. All the segments reported declines in income in 4Q15 over 3Q15.
Update: Distillate inventory movement
Inventories provide a useful snapshot of distillate demand and supply trends, particularly near and during the winter months.
What Does Tesoro’s Refining Index for 2Q16 Suggest?
Before analyzing Tesoro’s (TSO) refining index for 2Q16, let’s take a look at TSO’s refining margin trend up to 1Q16.
Phillips 66’s Cash Flow: Rising Shareholder Returns and Capex
From 3Q14 to 3Q15, PSX maintained average quarterly cash flow from operations at $1.1 billion. The company has continued its focus on preserving growth.
US Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread Rose 25% Last Week
The benchmark US Gulf Coast 3:2:1 crack spread rose ~25% last week. It hit $13.115 per barrel on Friday, September 25
Gasoline Stocks Fell due to Rise in Demand
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 245.1 MMbbls for the week ending March 18, 2016.
Where Phillips 66’s Moving Averages Stand
In 2Q17, Phillips 66 (PSX) rose, likely due to its 1Q17 numbers.
Why gasoline inventories didn’t have much effect on crude prices
Last week, gasoline inventories increased by 1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 204.6 MMbbls.
Phillips 66: Refining Yields in the Fourth Quarter
Phillips 66’s (PSX) refining operations yielded 45% gasoline and 39% distillates in the fourth quarter.
Bullish Tone: Gasoline Inventories Decreased Last Week
The EIA reported that gasoline inventories decreased by 2.8 MMbbls to ~223.9 MMbbls in the week ending May 15. Analysts expected inventories to increase.
Marathon Petroleum: Analysts’ Recommendations
Since Marathon Petroleum’s third-quarter earnings, the stock has been rated by 17 analysts. All of the analysts assigned “buy” or “strong buy” ratings.
Will Tesoro’s Stock Uptrend Last after 4Q15 Earnings?
Tesoro Corporation’s (TSO) stock was on an uptrend in 2015, fueled by healthy refining margins. TSO rose 21% in the trailing 12 months up to January 20, 2016.
Why Distillate Inventories Declined for the Week Ending January 15
US distillate fuel inventories fell by ~1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to settle at 164.5 MMbbls for the week ending January 15, 2016.
How Did Valero’s Refining Margins Shape Up in Its Latest Quarter?
Valero’s total refining capacity is 3.0 MMbpd (million barrels per day), of which 1.7 MMbpd is located in the US Gulf Coast.
Valero Energy beats expectations with its 4Q 2014 earnings
Valero Energy (VLO) released its fourth quarter earnings on January 29. The company reported a net income of $1.2 billion.
Marathon Petroleum’s Cash Flow Position
In the first half of 2018, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) had $2.249 billion in cash from operations. The company had cash outflows of $1.466 billion.
MPC, ANDV, VLO, PSX: Why Refining Stocks Are Underperforming SPY
In this series, we’ll perform a cross-sectional analysis of refining stocks. We’ll examine their moving averages and eight-day price forecasts based on implied volatility, and compare their leverage, liquidity, capex, and refining margins.
Do Analysts Have Mixed Opinions on HollyFrontier and Valero?
The higher percentage of “hold” ratings for HollyFrontier could be due to its earnings outlook.
Must-know: Valero’s 2Q financial performance
Net income reported for this quarter reflected discontinued operations at Valero’s Aruba refinery—as a result of this, the company recognized a loss of $63 million associated with asset retirement and other obligations related to the Aruba refinery.
How Tesoro’s Refining Margin Shaped Up in 1Q17
Tesoro (TSO) noted a rise in its gross refining margin by $1.90 per barrel year-over-year to $9.40 per barrel in 1Q17.
PSX’s 50-Day Average Falls below Its 200-Day Average in Q4
Now let’s look at Phillips 66’s moving averages in the current quarter.
Valero’s Stock Performance: Gained 20% from February 2016
Valero Energy (VLO) has witnessed a rise in its stock price since February 2016. In this series, we will provide you with an update on the company’s operations, financials, and market performance.
Energy Stocks Outperformed Oil and the Broader Market
On December 1–8, 2017, midstream stock NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) was the largest gainer among energy stocks.
Chart in Focus: The Correlation of Phillips 66 Stock with WTI
The correlation coefficient of Phillips 66 (PSX) versus WTI stands at 0.40.
Behind Delek US Holdings’ Scant ‘Buy’ Ratings
Four (27%) of the 15 analysts covering DK have rated it a “buy” so far in August 2017.
How Does Valero’s PEG Ratio Compare to Peers?
Valero’s PEG ratio stands at 0.50, below the peer average of 0.60.
Why MPC Is Trading at Double Its Historical Average
Marathon Petroleum traded at an average PE (price-to-earnings ratio) of 12.5x from 1Q15 to 1Q17. MPC’s PE ratio rose to 22.9x in 1Q17 from 11.7x in 1Q15 due to a rise in its stock price.
Key Energy Industry Updates from July 24–28, 2017
Valero Energy (VLO) posted its 2Q17 results on July 27, 2017. Its revenue surpassed the Wall Street analyst consensus estimate by ~10.5%.
Marathon Petroleum Outperformed SPY, Stock Rose 17%
Since the beginning of the third quarter on July 2, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has risen 17%. The stock outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Heating Oil Prices Fall by ~11 Cents per Gallon
Last week, as of March 23, residential heating oil prices averaged ~$2.93 per gallon—~11 cents per gallon lower than the week before.
Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund Liquidated: Concerns for Others?
On December 10, 2015, Third Avenue Management announced that redemptions were barred from the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund (TFCVX) (TFCIX).
Week of July 2: XLE Falls, Albeit Less than USO, while UNG Gains
In the July 2 week, XLE’s top five holdings fell in the range of 0.85% to 3%, which was quite subdued compared to the losses USO saw during the week.
Valero’s 1Q17 Earnings Beat Estimates, Refining Margin Expands
Valero Energy (VLO) posted its 1Q17 results on April 25, 2017. Before we proceed with an earnings review, let’s quickly examine VLO’s 1Q17 performance versus its estimates.
Brent-WTI Spread Might Drag US Oil Exports and Downstream Stocks
On December 26, Brent crude oil February futures settled at ~$8.25—higher than WTI crude oil February futures.
Average US Households Expected to Spend $710 Less on Heating Oil
Like gasoline and distillates, heating oil consumption or demand trends matter to refineries.
4Q16 Pre-Earnings Release: Valero’s Stock Performance
Refining sector stocks usually perform in line with refining margins and cracks. Since February 2016, refining stocks have been putting up volatile performances.
How Analysts Rate Pre-Earnings for PSX, MPC, HFC, and VLO
Marathon Petroleum is growing with its capex and acquisitions, including the latest acquisition of Andeavor.
What Tesoro’s Refining Index for 3Q16 Suggests
In 3Q16, Tesoro’s (TSO) refining index values, which are regional crack indicators in the areas where TSO operates, have fallen compared to 3Q15.
The Brent–WTI Spread Drops ~10.4% in the Last Five Sessions
The Brent-WTI crude oil spread was $3.78 per barrel on July 16, down from $4.22 per barrel on July 9. The Brent-WTI spread dropped ~10.4% from July 9 to July 16.
MPC, TSO, VLO, PSX: Which Refining Stock Is Trading at a Premium?
Now, let’s look at the forward valuations of Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Tesoro (TSO), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX).
Has Short Interest in Phillips 66 Fallen?
Short interest in Phillips 66 (PSX) expressed as a percentage of outstanding shares has fallen from 1.6% on May 30, 2018, to the current level of 1.1%.
Valero’s Institutional Holdings before the 1Q17 Results
The institutional holdings in Valero Energy (VLO) are higher than the institutional holdings in Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Western Refining (WNR).
Marathon Petroleum’s Debt Is Lower than Industry Averages
Marathon Petroluem’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 1.9x in 4Q16. It’s lower than the average industry ratio of 2.8x.
TransCanada’s controversial Keystone XL Pipeline project
The Keystone XL Pipeline project is a proposed 1,179-mile pipeline. It begins in Alberta, Canada and extends south to join the existing Keystone Pipeline in Steele City, Nebraska.
Marathon Petroleum’s Valuations Were Mixed
Currently, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) trades at a forward PE ratio of 12.6x—above its peer average of 11.9x.
Refinery Inputs Fell but Are Higher than 2014 Levels
US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.029 million barrels per day (or MMbpd) during the week ended August 7.
Refining Stocks and Oil Prices: Understanding the Correlation Coefficient
The correlation coefficient of Phillips 66 (PSX) and WTI stands highest among refiners at 0.42.
Important update on heating oil prices
As of January 5, residential heating oil prices averaged ~$2.97 per gallon, ~$0.08 lower than last week and $1.05 lower than the same week last year.
Where Do MPC’s and ANDV’s Valuations Stand after Merger News?
Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) valuations have slid due to a decline in its stock after the merger announcement.
MPC, TSO, VLO, PSX: Ranking Their Refining Yields in 4Q17
In 4Q17, Andeavor’s (ANDV) gasoline production stood at 53.0% of its total refined products produced.
Why Has Marathon Petroleum Stock Underperformed SPY in 1Q18?
Since January 2, 2018, Marathon Petroleum stock has risen 0.7%, underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the overall market indicator.
PSX Ranks Fourth on High Implied Gain, Growth, Dividend Yield
Now let’s review the stock that’s expected to post the fourth-highest gain: Phillips 66 (PSX).
Comparing Refiners’ Cash Flow: Valero Tops the List
Valero’s (VSO) cash flow excess as a percentage of CFO stands at 50%. Comparatively, Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) excess stands at 11%.
A Look at Phillips 66’s Leverage Curve Trend
Phillips 66’s (PSX) leverage ratio, its net debt-to-EBITDA, stood at 3.9x in 1Q17, which was higher than the average industry ratio of 2.2x.
Why MPC and PSX Trade at a Premium, ANDV and VLO at a Discount
In the previous part of this series, we discussed refining stocks’ dividend yield trends. Now, we’ll look at the forward valuations for Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX).
Why Most Analysts Are Calling Marathon Petroleum a ‘Buy’
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has been rated by 19 Wall Street analysts. Seventeen analysts (or 89%) have rated it as a “buy” so far in May 2017.
Comparing MPC’s, TSO’s, VLO’s, and PSX’s Valuation
Average valuation multiples Earlier, we discussed refining stocks’ performance in 1Q17 and compared their dividend yields. In this part, we’ll look at Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC), Tesoro’s (TSO), Valero Energy’s (VLO), and Phillips 66’s (PSX) forward valuation. The average forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiples and average forward PE […]