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Real Asset Companies Are on the Cusp of an Earnings Revival
Despite rising concerns about a trade war, the IMF maintained its growth forecasts for the global economy for 2018.
The OECD’s Oil Inventories: Are the Oil Bulls Back?
The EIA estimates that OECD’s oil inventories decreased by 0.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 2,834.3 MMbbls in June compared to the previous month.
Analysts Upgrade WTI and Brent Crude Oil Price Forecasts
WTI crude oil futures increased ~8.6% on June 25–July 2. Expectations of a drop in US crude oil inventories could support oil prices.
Energy Is the S&P 500’s Second-Strongest Sector This Week
In this series, we’ll look at the stocks with the largest gains and losses in the refining and marketing sector and integrated energy sector.
WTI Crude Oil: Key Support and Resistance Levels
WTI crude oil futures increased ~3.4% on June 18–25. Expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventories could support oil prices.
Energy: This Week’s Sixth Worst-Performing Sector in the S&P 500
For the week starting June 18, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) has fallen ~1.0% from last week’s close of $2,779.66 to $2,749.76 as of June 21.
Lower WTI Crude Oil Price Forecasts for 2018
July WTI crude oil futures were trading above their 100-day and 200-day moving averages of $65.46 per barrel and $60.36 per barrel, respectively, on June 18.
Energy Sector: Third-Lowest Performer in the S&P 500 This Week
On June 14, the S&P 500 Index was up ~0.2% for the week. It rose from the previous week’s close of $2,779.03 to $2,782.49.
OECD’s Crude Oil Inventories Rebounded in May
The EIA estimates that OECD’s crude oil inventories increased 0.9% to 2,840.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in May—compared to the previous month.
Integrated Energy Losses This Week: CVE, YPF, IMO, SU, and PBR
Cenovus Energy (CVE) is the leading declining stock in the current week from the integrated energy sector. It decreased from last week’s close of $10.40 to $10.04 on June 6.
This Oilfield Services Company Had the Highest Net Debt-to-Equity
From March 31, 2017, to March 31, 2018, Key Energy Services’ (KEG) net debt increased 18%.
Crude Oil Futures: Drivers on June 4–8
The API is scheduled to release its crude oil inventory report on June 5. The EIA is scheduled to release its US crude oil production data on June 6.
Iraq’s Crude Oil Production Could Impact Oil Prices
According to the EIA, Iraq’s crude oil production decreased by 30,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 4,450,000 bpd in April—compared to the previous month.
Moving Averages: WTI Crude Oil Prices Could Trend Higher
July WTI crude oil futures were trading above their 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages on May 25.
Why Did Crude Oil Futures Decline Last Week?
July US crude oil futures contracts fell 1.5% to $66.82 per barrel on May 29 at 12:49 AM EST. The US stock exchange was closed on May 28.
Could WTI Crude Oil Prices Rise This Week?
The API (American Petroleum Institute) is set to release its weekly crude oil inventory report on May 30, and the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is set to release its US crude oil production data on May 31.
Will Iran’s Crude Oil Production Drop in the Coming Months?
Iran’s crude oil production rose 0.3% to 3.83 MMbpd in April—compared to March. The country’s oil production is near a nine-year high.
Hedge Funds Cut Net Long Positions in WTI Crude Oil
Hedge funds’ net long positions in US crude oil futures and options contracts trading in NYMEX and ICE declined by 15,322 to 419,907 on May 8–15.
WTI Crude Oil Prices Could Hit $75 per Barrel
WTI crude oil futures contracts settled at $71.49 per barrel on May 17—the highest settlement since November 2014.
Next Key Resistance Level for Crude Oil Futures
WTI crude oil futures contracts settled at $71.36 per barrel on May 10—the highest settlement since November 2014.
Analyzing BHGE and NOV’s Revenues in 1Q18
National Oilwell Varco’s 1Q18 revenues increased 3.1% to $1.79 billion from $1.74 billion a year ago.
Will Crude Oil Futures Extend the Bullish Momentum?
Record US crude oil production, profit-booking, and a larger-than-expected increase in Cushing inventories could pressure oil prices this week.
Will There Be More Upside in the Oil Rig Count?
In the week ending May 4, the oil rig count rose by nine to 834—the highest level in more than three years.
Analyzing Schlumberger and Halliburton’s Implied Volatility
Halliburton stock will likely close between $54.11 and $50.51 in the next seven days—based on its implied volatility.
Analyzing Schlumberger and Halliburton’s Revenues in 1Q18
Halliburton’s 1Q18 revenues increased 34.1% to $5.74 billion from $4.28 billion a year ago. Halliburton’s revenue growth beat Schlumberger’s growth.
Will Rising Core Inflation Lead to Steeper Rate Hikes?
With core inflation at 1.8%, it is likely that inflation achieves a “two-handle” (2%) soon, and rather than risk falling behind the curve, the Fed might tighten more aggressively.
Is More Upside in the Oil Rig Count Inevitable?
In the week ending April 27, the oil rig count rose by five to 825—the highest level in more than three years.
Analyzing National Oilwell Varco’s 1Q18 Performance
From 1Q17 to 1Q18, National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) Wellbore Technologies segment’s revenue jumped 28%.
Do Crude Oil Futures Have More Upside Potential?
June WTI oil futures were trading above their 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages on April 27.
US Natural Gas Futures: What to Expect
US natural gas futures increased 6.1% on April 19–26. Prices increased due to the larger-than-expected decline in natural gas inventories.
Is US Natural Gas Consumption Helping Natural Gas Bulls?
US natural gas consumption fell ~6% to 63.7 Bcf per day on April 19–25. However, consumption has increased ~13% or by 12.9 Bcf per day YoY.
Analyzing the US Natural Gas Production Trend
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.6% to 80.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on April 19–25.
Crude Oil Prices Rose despite the Build in US Oil Inventories
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 2.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 429.7 MMbbls on April 13–20.
Oil Rig Count: Is More Upside Possible?
In the week ending April 20, the oil rig count rose by five to 820—the highest level in more than three years.
Crude Oil Futures’ Outlook: Key Drivers on April 23–27
Record US crude oil production and a larger-than-expected increase in Cushing inventories could pressure oil prices this week.
Gasoline Demand and Crude Oil Futures’ Bullish Momentum
June 2018 WTI oil futures contracts fell 0.1% from the previous settlement to $68.33 per barrel at 2:00 AM EST on April 23.
Forecasting National Oilwell Varco’s Stock Price
Since February 5, crude oil’s implied volatility has risen from ~21.5% to 25.7%.
How National Oilwell Varco Performed in 4Q17
From 4Q16 to 4Q17, National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) Wellbore Technologies revenue rose 34.5%, the highest revenue rise among NOV’s operating segments.
US Natural Gas Consumption Fell on April 12–18
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption fell ~9% to 67.7 Bcf per day on April 12–18, 2018.
US Natural Gas Production Fell on April 12–18
PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.6% to 79.6 Bcf per day on April 12–18, 2018.
US Crude Oil Production Reached a New Record
The EIA reported that the US crude oil output rose by 15,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,540,000 bpd on April 6–13, 2018.
US Crude Oil Inventories Pushed Crude Oil Prices Higher
The EIA released its weekly crude oil inventory report on April 18, 2018. US crude oil inventories decreased by 1 MMbbls to 427.5 MMbbls on April 6–13.
API Reported a Drop in US Crude Oil Inventories
May 2018 WTI crude oil futures contracts rose 0.9% from the previous settlement and were trading at $67.13 per barrel at 2:25 AM EST on April 18.
Crude Oil Futures: Key Drivers on April 17–20
Record US oil production and a larger-than-expected rise in Cushing inventories could weigh on oil prices this week.
Gasoline Demand Impacts Crude Oil Prices
May 2018 WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.4% from the previous settlement to $66.51 per barrel at 1:45 AM EST on April 17, 2018.
Why the Oil Rig Count Could Increase More
In the week ending April 13, 2018, the oil rig count rose by seven to 815—the highest level since March 20, 2015.
Schlumberger: Analysts’ Recommendations before 1Q18
As of April 11, 2018, 78% of the analysts tracking Schlumberger rated it as a “buy,” ~19% rated it as a “hold,” and 3% rated it as a “sell.”
EIA Upgrades US Natural Gas Consumption Forecast for 2018
US natural gas production could surpass consumption in 2018 and 2019, which could pressure natural gas prices.
Larger Drop in US Natural Gas Inventories Helped Gas Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 19 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,335 Bcf on March 30–April 6, 2018.
US Crude Oil Production: A Big Threat to Crude Oil Prices?
The EIA reported that US crude oil production rose by 65,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,525,000 bpd on March 30–April 6, 2018.
EIA Reported a Surprise Build in US Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.3 MMbbls (million barrels) to 428.6 MMbbls on March 30–April 6, 2018.
Where RPC’s Net Debt-To-Equity Ratio May Be Headed
Since 2015, RPC’s (RES) net debt has been negative, as it has had no debt and positive cash and equivalents.
API Reported an Unexpected Build in US Crude Oil Inventories
May WTI crude oil futures contracts fell 0.24% from the previous settlement and were trading at $65.35 per barrel at 2:00 AM EST on April 11, 2018.
Oil Rig Count Could Kill the Upside in Oil Prices
In the week ending April 6, 2018, the oil rig count rose by 11 to 808 and hit a three-year high.
Is Iraq’s Crude Oil Production Helping Crude Oil Bears?
A Reuters survey estimates that Iraq’s crude oil production increased by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 4,400,000 bpd in March 2018.
Crude Oil Futures: What to Expect on April 9–13
WTI oil futures for May delivery were trading below their 20-day and 50-day moving averages on April 6, 2018.
Is Gasoline Demand Helping Crude Oil Bulls?
May WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.4% from the previous settlement to $62.33 per barrel at 2:45 AM EST on April 9, 2018.
Integrated Energy Losses this Week: CEO, PBR, YPF, PTR
To conclude our series on the biggest movers in the energy sector, we’ll look at the biggest losses from the US integrated energy sector this week.
US Natural Gas Consumption Reached a Record High
The EIA estimates that US natural gas consumption could average ~78.19 Bcf per day in 2018 and ~79.36 Bcf per day in 2019.
US Natural Gas Production Is near a Record Level
The EIA reported that US dry natural gas production declined 1.1% to 79.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day in January 2018—compared to December 2017.
US Natural Gas Inventories Declined ~34% from Last Year
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 29 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,354 Bcf on March 23–30, 2018.
US Crude Oil Output Reached a New Record
The EIA estimates that the weekly US crude oil output rose by 27,000 bpd to a record high of 10,460,000 bpd on March 23–30, 2018.
Are US Crude Oil Inventories below Their 5-Year Average?
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 425.3 MMbbls on March 23–30, 2018.
API Reported a Surprise Decline in US Crude Oil Inventories
The API estimates that US oil inventories decreased by 3.3 MMbbls (million barrels) on March 23–30, 2018.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Is near April 2017 Highs
Russia’s crude oil production rose 0.2% to 10.97 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in March 2018—compared to the previous month.
Why the Oil Rig Count Could Concern Energy Investors
In the week ending March 30, 2018, the oil rig count fell by seven to 797. US crude oil prices and the oil rig count usually move in a pattern.
What Could Drive Crude Oil Futures This Week?
On April 3, the API is scheduled to release its US crude oil inventory report. On April 4, the EIA is scheduled to release its weekly US crude oil production data.
Is Gasoline Demand Helping Crude Oil Prices?
May WTI crude oil futures contracts rose 0.3% from the previous settlement to $65.17 per barrel at 2:15 AM EST on April 2, 2018.
Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures Rose Last Week
WTI crude oil futures contracts for May delivery increased 0.87% to $64.94 per barrel on March 29, 2018. Brent oil futures rose 1.1% to $70.27 per barrel.
US Natural Gas Production and Consumption from March 22–28
Pointlogic estimates that US dry natural gas production was flat at 79.2 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from March 22–28, 2018.
Why US Natural Gas Rigs Are Close to 3-Year High
Rigs increased because US crude oil and natural gas prices have increased ~148% and ~37%, respectively, since February 11, 2016.
Why US Natural Gas Inventories Have Fallen 33% from a Year Ago
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined 63 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,383 Bcf from March 16–23, 2018.
Record US Crude Oil Output Pressures Oil Prices
The US crude oil output rose by 26,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,433,000 bpd on March 16–23, 2018.
US Crude Oil Inventories Weigh on Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 429.9 MMbbls on March 16–23, 2018.
Why Patterson-UTI Energy’s Free Cash Flow Fell in 2017
Patterson-UTI Energy’s (PTEN) cash from operating activities (or CFO) decreased 1% in 2017 compared to 2016. PTEN generated $300.7 million CFO in 2017.
Saudi Arabia and Russia’s Production Cut Strategy
On March 26, 2018, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince said that Saudi Arabia and Russia are working together on a long-term production cut strategy.
API Reported a Large Build in US Crude Oil Inventories
The API estimates that US oil inventories increased by 5.3 MMbbls (million barrels) to 430.6 MMbbls on March 16–23, 2018.
Is Iraq Supporting Crude Oil Production Cuts?
On March 22, 2018, Saudi Arabia said that it would support extending the ongoing production supply cuts into 2019.
General Electric: Would a Breakup Unlock Value?
With the spate of bad news that followed GE’s November 13, 2017, investor update, the markets grappled with wide speculation about a General Electric (GE) breakup.
Oil Rig Count: An Impending Threat for Your Energy Portfolio?
In the week ending March 23, 2018, the oil rig count rose by four to 804—the highest level since March 27, 2015.
How Did NOV Maintain Steady Free Cash Flow in 2017?
National Oilwell Varco (NOV) generated $832 million in CFO (cash flow from operations) in 2017, which reflected a 13% fall over 2016.
US Crude Oil Futures Could Breach 3-Year Highs
US oil prices are 0.4% below their three-year high. The record US oil output could limit more upside for oil prices this week.
Gasoline Demand Could Drive Oil Prices Higher
According to the EIA, the four-week average US gasoline demand increased by 81,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,276,000 bpd on March 9–16, 2018.
US Crude Oil Futures Are near a 3-Year High
US crude oil futures contracts for May delivery rose 2.5% to $65.88 per barrel on March 23, 2018. Prices are near a three-year high.
Why US Natural Gas Consumption Declined on March 15–21
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption decreased ~5.2% to 76.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on March 15–21, 2018.
Decoding US Natural Gas Production on March 15–21
The EIA estimates that US natural gas production could average ~81.7 Bcf per day in 2018 and ~82.67 Bcf per day in 2019.
US Natural Gas Inventories Are ~19% below the 5-Year Average
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories dropped by 86 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,446 Bcf on March 9–16, 2018.
US Natural Gas Futures Reached a 1-Month Low
April US natural gas futures contracts fell 0.8% to $2.61 per MMBtu on March 22, 2018—the lowest settlement since February 20, 2018.
US Crude Oil Production Reached a New Record
The EIA estimated that US crude oil production increased by 26,000 bpd to a record high of 10,407,000 bpd on March 9–16, 2018.
US Crude Oil Inventories Are below the 5-Year Average
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 428.3 MMbbls on March 9–16, 2018.
API Reports an Unexpected Draw in US Crude Oil Inventories
May WTI oil futures contracts rose 2.2% to $63.5 per barrel on March 20, 2018—the highest settlement since February 26, 2018.
US Crude Oil Futures Could Trend Higher
May US crude oil futures were above their 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages on March 16, 2018, which suggests that prices could trend higher.
Gasoline Demand Could Boost Crude Oil Futures
US crude oil futures contracts for May delivery fell 0.42% from the previous settlement to $62.15 per barrel at 2:00 AM EST on March 19, 2018.
US Crude Oil Futures Are near a 2-Week High
April US crude oil futures contracts rose 1.8% to $62.34 per barrel on March 16, 2018—the highest settlement since March 6, 2018.
Integrated Energy Losses this Week: IMO, PBR, YPF, RDS.A, CEO
In this part of our series, we’ll look at the biggest losses in the US integrated energy sector for the week that began on March 12.
US Crude Oil Production Has Risen ~23% since July 2016
US oil prices have dropped 7.8% since January 26, 2018.
US Crude Oil Inventories Restricted Upside for Oil Futures
The EIA released its crude oil inventory report on March 14, 2018.
Why US Natural Gas Consumption Rose on March 8–14
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption increased ~5.5% to 80.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on March 8–14, 2018.
US Dry Natural Gas Production Increased on March 8–14
According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production increased 0.1% to 78.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on March 8–14, 2018.
US Natural Gas Inventories Pressure Gas Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 93 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,532 Bcf on March 2–9, 2018.