Vanguard Energy ETF

Antero Resources’ current acreage is focused in the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia and the Utica Shale in Ohio.

Chevron Corporation is currently trading at EV-to-2014E EBITDA of 5x, has an approximately $239 billion market cap, and ~$245 billion enterprise value.

A heat wave that has persisted in the US has helped to lift natural gas prices.

The EIA estimates that US crude oil production fell by 40,000 barrels per day to 9.096 million barrels per day in the week ending September 25.

In 2015, sinking oil prices impacted earnings of integrated energy companies. This reflects on the stock performance of these companies.

China’s General Administration of Customs estimates that the country’s crude oil imports fell by 810,000 bpd to 8.4 MMbpd in April 2017—compared to March.

Tesoro stock, continuing its 2015 downtrend, had a weak opening to 2016. TSO traded below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

The rise in US crude oil production would have contributed to the rise in US crude oil inventories between October 28 and November 4, 2016.

The four-week average refinery input level of 15.7 MMbpd for the week ended October 9 was 0.3% higher than last year, which is relatively flat.

Spectra Energy’s distributable cash flow for 3Q15 was $223 million, compared with $236 million in 3Q14.

Suncor Energy (SU) is the only losing stock in the current week from the integrated energy sector. It fell from last week’s close of $34.67 to $34.52 on October 11, 2017.

In its weekly report released on October 28, the EIA reported an increase of 3.4 million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ended October 23.

As a result of steeply falling CFO, Halliburton’s free cash flow deteriorated to a negative $499 million in 3Q15 from a negative $71 million a year ago.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Cushing crude oil stocks rose by 36,000 barrels to 65 MMbbls for the week ending February 12, 2016.

Schlumberger’s net debt to TTM EBITDA shot up from 4Q14 to 4Q15. In 4Q15, its net-debt-to-EBITDA multiple was 0.84, or 71% higher than one year ago.

SandRidge Energy updated its 2014 guidance given its Gulf of Mexico divestiture. The new cost guidance shows lower lifting costs per unit.

US crude oil futures contracts for April delivery closed at $54.01 per barrel on February 28, 2017—0.1% less than the previous closing price.

Every week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (or EIA) reports figures on crude inventories, or the amount of crude oil stored in facilities across the U.S.

The fall in oil prices on October 11 coincides with the market’s doubts about the execution of the output limit deal among OPEC members on September 28.

According to oil service company Baker Hughes (BHI), the horizontal rig count was up by one rig in the week ended August 21, 2015.

Bearish momentum in crude oil prices pressured gasoline prices on October 26, 2016. Gasoline active futures contracts rose 30% from their lows in February.

Crude oil’s (USO) (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) implied volatility was 26.6% on April 28, 2017, which was 4.6% above its 15-day average.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for May delivery rose 1.2% to $51.6 per barrel in electronic trade at 5:20 AM EST on April 5.

Let’s analyze the correlations between oil prices and the top four American refiners: Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), Tesoro (TSO), and Phillips 66 (PSX).

U.S. Steel shipped 3.88 million metric tons of steel in 2Q16, which represents a sequential increase of 8.2%. Its 2Q16 shipments were almost flat YoY.

Concho Resources (CXO) will release its 4Q15 earnings on February 25, 2016. The estimate for 4Q15 revenue is ~$592.4 million. Revenue in 4Q14 was ~$692.4 million.

An important part of Tesoro’s business, crude-by-rail allows refiners to cover maximum accessibility and to gain from price differentials.

The EIA reported that US distillate inventories fell by 0.3 MMbbls to 151.6 MMbbls in the week ending September 25.

For 2Q17, Denbury Resources’ continuing production averaged 59.8 Mboepd, which is ~5% lower than its 2Q16 continuing production of ~63.0 Mboepd.

Bloomberg surveys projected that Cushing crude oil inventories fell by 0.7 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending June 3—compared to the previous week.

An OPEC meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2016, in Vienna. The meeting could provide details about the quota system for OPEC members.

Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) released its 4Q15 financial results on February 4, 2016. The company recorded total revenues of $338.5 million in 4Q15, down 62% from $901.2 million recorded in 4Q14.

PDC Energy’s 2015 forward EV-EBITDA multiple is 6.6x. So the sharply lower forward multiple indicates that Wall Street expects PDCE’s EBITDA to improve sharply in 2H15.

Record US crude oil production, profit-booking, and a larger-than-expected increase in Cushing inventories could pressure oil prices this week.

The US crude oil (USO) rig count fell below 400 in the week ended April 22, 2016.

The EIA released its weekly crude oil inventory report on April 18, 2018. US crude oil inventories decreased by 1 MMbbls to 427.5 MMbbls on April 6–13.

US crude oil prices were up by 12% in August 2016, partially due to speculation about the oil producers’ meeting, which could result in an output cap.

Williams Companies’ forward EV-EBITDA multiple, which is based on the current fiscal quarter’s EBITDA estimates, is 13.1x.

Integrated energy companies such as ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and BP (BP) are steady dividend-paying companies.

On a sequential basis, Marathon’s operating income fell by 78%. All the segments reported declines in income in 4Q15 over 3Q15.

An increase in US power generation numbers is expected for the week ended October 30, 2015.

Devon plans to rapidly grow production in the Eagle Ford over the next few years.

April WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) rose by 1.7% and settled at $38.5 per barrel on March 11, 2016.

The direct impact of the oil and gas (VDE) slump on Deere & Company is not significant. So why have sales of Deere’s construction equipment fallen?

According to the EIA, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 420.2 MMbbls on January 26–February 2, 2018.

NGLs prices remain uptrend despite the falling last week, which is positive to producers.

Last week temperatures were colder than normal, however, natural gas fell steeply on the week despite this.

Tesoro Corporation’s (TSO) stock was on an uptrend in 2015, fueled by healthy refining margins. TSO rose 21% in the trailing 12 months up to January 20, 2016.

In 1Q16, Shell’s (RDS.A) upstream segment is likely to put on a dull show due to weaker crude oil prices. Earnings from the downstream segment are also likely to be subdued.

The EIA published its monthly STEO report on January 12, 2016. The global crude oil production will rise to 95.9 MMbpd in 2016 and 96.7 MMbpd in 2017.

PDC Energy (PDCE) reported its 4Q15 earnings on February 22, 2016. The company announced adjusted revenue of ~$168.6 million.

Valero Energy (VLO) released its fourth quarter earnings on January 29. The company reported a net income of $1.2 billion.

As 2015 came to a close, Concho Resources’ (CXO) stock started falling. CXO has fallen ~21% since February 2015.

Early last week, WTI crude oil had eased to close to $99 following Libya’s restarting exports from major ports and abating fears over supply disruptions in Iraq.

ConocoPhillips’s net debt-to-EBITDA was in the range of 0.6x–1.1x between 3Q13 and 4Q14. But in 2015, its net debt-to-EBITDA multiple started increasing.

NGL prices traded higher last week, helping wet gas producers. NGL prices are an important indicator to track in the energy space.

Weatherford International’s (WFT) management expects crude oil price to start stabilizing by the second half of 2016. It plans to keep reducing costs to manage the current uncertainty.

For 2Q17, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) reported revenues of ~$14.0 million, which was lower than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$34.0 million.

The correlation coefficient of Phillips 66 (PSX) versus WTI stands at 0.40.

The four-week average fall in the US rig count was at eight for the week ending November 25. Four-week averages offer a broader view of the rig counts.

The Permian Basin spreads across a wide swath of western Texas and southern New Mexico. The name “Permian Basin” generally refers to a combination of the Delaware Basin and Midland Basin.

October WTI (or West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (USO) (UCO) futures contracts rose 0.4% and were trading at $47.73 per barrel in electronic trade at 2:00 AM EST on August 22, 2017.

The EIA estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand rose by 134,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,102,000 bpd from March 10–17, 2017.

Libya plans to pump 1.25 million barrels per day of crude oil by December 2017. An increase in Libya’s crude oil production could weigh on oil prices.

Lower crude oil prices tend to narrow the supply and demand imbalance.

The EIA reported that monthly US crude oil production fell by 91,000 bpd to 8.8 MMbpd in December 2016—compared to the previous month.

There’s a long road ahead for Freeport-McMoRan’s asset sales program. The company is looking to raise between $5 billion and $10 billion in 2016.

Exxon Mobil has three major business segments: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Upstream contributes the most to XOM’s earnings.

November WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures’ moving averages suggest that crude oil prices could keep trading higher going forward.

The fall in distillate inventories supported diesel and crude oil futures on June 28, 2017. US diesel futures rose 1.4% to $1.43 per gallon on June 28.

US crude oil futures contracts for March delivery closed at $53.20 per barrel on February 14, 2017—0.5% more than the previous closing price.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.6% to 80.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on April 19–25.

PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose 10% between December 8 and December 14, 2016.

The EIA estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production will rise to 32.4 MMbpd in 2016 and 33 MMbpd in 2017.

Market surveys suggest that Cushing crude oil inventories rose between December 16 and December 23, 2016.

Currently, ~52% of Wall Street analysts rate Energen (EGN) as a “buy” and ~44% of analysts rate it as a “hold.” Around 4% rate the stock a “sell.”

The API (American Petroleum Institute) is set to release its weekly crude oil inventory report on May 30, and the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is set to release its US crude oil production data on May 31.

The EIA estimates that global oil demand could average 100.1 MMbpd in 2018. Global oil demand could increase to 101.75 MMbpd in 2019.

OPEC producers will be meeting at an energy forum in Algeria from September 26–28, 2016. Crude oil prices are up by 16% so far in August 2016.

US shale oil production rose between 2007 and April 2015. The record US crude oil production was due to the mammoth surge in shale oil production in 2015.

The representative NGL barrel reached highs of up to ~$50 per barrel in early February, given the strength in propane prices due to a cold winter as well as natural gas prices that pushed ethane prices up.

September US crude oil (RYE) (VDE) (BNO) futures contracts rose 3.3% to $47.8 per barrel on July 25, 2017.

On May 23, the API will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories could have fallen by 2.3 MMbbls on May 12–19, 2017.

US crude oil prices rose due to a larger-than-expected draw in US crude oil inventories and record refinery crude oil demand.

This week saw NGL prices trade up by 5%, a positive short-term indicator. Plus, note that NGL prices are up significantly since late June, a positive medium-term indicator.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (XOP) (XLE) (VDE) futures contracts for June delivery rose 3.2% and settled at $47.33 per barrel on May 10, 2017.

Supply outages in the Kurdistan region supported crude oil (BNO) (USO) (USL) prices last week.

Currently, ~33% of Wall Street analysts rate SM Energy (SM) as a “buy” and ~67% of analysts rate it as a “hold.” There is no “sell” recommendation on the stock.

Currently, ~48% of Wall Street analysts rate Occidental Petroleum (OXY) as a “buy” and ~41% of analysts rate it as a “hold.”

On March 24, the natural gas rig count was 155—a fall of two rigs over the previous week. Active natural gas rigs have risen by 63 in the past year.

In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on November 4, 2015, the EIA reported an increase of 2.8 MMbbls in crude oil inventories for the week ended October 30, 2015.

US distillate inventories rose for the fourth time in the last five weeks. They rose ~3% in the last five weeks, which is bearish for diesel and oil prices.

Currently, ~54% of Wall Street analysts rate Marathon Oil (MRO) as a “buy” and ~43% of analysts rate it as a “hold.”

Approximately 78% of the Wall Street analysts tracking Newpark Resources (NR) recommended a “buy” or some equivalent on November 20, 2017.

It terms of analysts’ recommendations for Chevron, approximately 53.3% of analysts rate Chevron a “hold,” 40% rate it a “buy,” and 6.7% rate it a “sell.” The average broker target price of $93.11 for CVX implies a ~3.4% return in the next 12 months.

Natural gas liquid prices recovered somewhat last week, likely off the back of higher crude oil prices.

The EIA released its monthly STEO report on May 9, 2017. It estimates that US WTI crude oil prices would average $50.68 per barrel in 2017.

The EIA reported that OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 510,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.7 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2016.

The WTI-Brent spread narrowed to ~$6 per barrel last week and the prices between WTI and Brent have generally been moving closer over the past few months.

The EIA estimates that US distillate inventories fell by 2.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 135.4 MMbbls on September 22–29, 2017.