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Real Asset Companies Are on the Cusp of an Earnings Revival
Despite rising concerns about a trade war, the IMF maintained its growth forecasts for the global economy for 2018.
The OECD’s Oil Inventories: Are the Oil Bulls Back?
The EIA estimates that OECD’s oil inventories decreased by 0.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 2,834.3 MMbbls in June compared to the previous month.
Analysts Upgrade WTI and Brent Crude Oil Price Forecasts
WTI crude oil futures increased ~8.6% on June 25–July 2. Expectations of a drop in US crude oil inventories could support oil prices.
WTI Crude Oil: Key Support and Resistance Levels
WTI crude oil futures increased ~3.4% on June 18–25. Expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventories could support oil prices.
Energy Sector: Third-Lowest Performer in the S&P 500 This Week
On June 14, the S&P 500 Index was up ~0.2% for the week. It rose from the previous week’s close of $2,779.03 to $2,782.49.
OECD’s Crude Oil Inventories Rebounded in May
The EIA estimates that OECD’s crude oil inventories increased 0.9% to 2,840.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in May—compared to the previous month.
Crude Oil Futures: Drivers on June 4–8
The API is scheduled to release its crude oil inventory report on June 5. The EIA is scheduled to release its US crude oil production data on June 6.
Could WTI Crude Oil Prices Rise This Week?
The API (American Petroleum Institute) is set to release its weekly crude oil inventory report on May 30, and the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is set to release its US crude oil production data on May 31.
Hedge Funds Cut Net Long Positions in WTI Crude Oil
Hedge funds’ net long positions in US crude oil futures and options contracts trading in NYMEX and ICE declined by 15,322 to 419,907 on May 8–15.
Will There Be More Upside in the Oil Rig Count?
In the week ending May 4, the oil rig count rose by nine to 834—the highest level in more than three years.
US Natural Gas Futures: What to Expect
US natural gas futures increased 6.1% on April 19–26. Prices increased due to the larger-than-expected decline in natural gas inventories.
Analyzing the US Natural Gas Production Trend
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.6% to 80.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on April 19–25.
Oil Rig Count: Is More Upside Possible?
In the week ending April 20, the oil rig count rose by five to 820—the highest level in more than three years.
Crude Oil Futures’ Outlook: Key Drivers on April 23–27
Record US crude oil production and a larger-than-expected increase in Cushing inventories could pressure oil prices this week.
US Natural Gas Consumption Fell on April 12–18
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption fell ~9% to 67.7 Bcf per day on April 12–18, 2018.
US Natural Gas Production Fell on April 12–18
PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.6% to 79.6 Bcf per day on April 12–18, 2018.
Schlumberger: Analysts’ Recommendations before 1Q18
As of April 11, 2018, 78% of the analysts tracking Schlumberger rated it as a “buy,” ~19% rated it as a “hold,” and 3% rated it as a “sell.”
Larger Drop in US Natural Gas Inventories Helped Gas Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 19 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,335 Bcf on March 30–April 6, 2018.
Is Iraq’s Crude Oil Production Helping Crude Oil Bears?
A Reuters survey estimates that Iraq’s crude oil production increased by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 4,400,000 bpd in March 2018.
Crude Oil Futures: What to Expect on April 9–13
WTI oil futures for May delivery were trading below their 20-day and 50-day moving averages on April 6, 2018.
Integrated Energy Losses this Week: CEO, PBR, YPF, PTR
To conclude our series on the biggest movers in the energy sector, we’ll look at the biggest losses from the US integrated energy sector this week.
US Natural Gas Consumption Reached a Record High
The EIA estimates that US natural gas consumption could average ~78.19 Bcf per day in 2018 and ~79.36 Bcf per day in 2019.
US Natural Gas Production Is near a Record Level
The EIA reported that US dry natural gas production declined 1.1% to 79.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day in January 2018—compared to December 2017.
US Crude Oil Output Reached a New Record
The EIA estimates that the weekly US crude oil output rose by 27,000 bpd to a record high of 10,460,000 bpd on March 23–30, 2018.
Are US Crude Oil Inventories below Their 5-Year Average?
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 425.3 MMbbls on March 23–30, 2018.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Is near April 2017 Highs
Russia’s crude oil production rose 0.2% to 10.97 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in March 2018—compared to the previous month.
Why the Oil Rig Count Could Concern Energy Investors
In the week ending March 30, 2018, the oil rig count fell by seven to 797. US crude oil prices and the oil rig count usually move in a pattern.
What Could Drive Crude Oil Futures This Week?
On April 3, the API is scheduled to release its US crude oil inventory report. On April 4, the EIA is scheduled to release its weekly US crude oil production data.
Why US Natural Gas Rigs Are Close to 3-Year High
Rigs increased because US crude oil and natural gas prices have increased ~148% and ~37%, respectively, since February 11, 2016.
Why US Natural Gas Inventories Have Fallen 33% from a Year Ago
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined 63 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,383 Bcf from March 16–23, 2018.
API Reported a Large Build in US Crude Oil Inventories
The API estimates that US oil inventories increased by 5.3 MMbbls (million barrels) to 430.6 MMbbls on March 16–23, 2018.
Is Iraq Supporting Crude Oil Production Cuts?
On March 22, 2018, Saudi Arabia said that it would support extending the ongoing production supply cuts into 2019.
Integrated Energy Losses this Week: IMO, PBR, YPF, RDS.A, CEO
In this part of our series, we’ll look at the biggest losses in the US integrated energy sector for the week that began on March 12.
US Crude Oil Production Has Risen ~23% since July 2016
US oil prices have dropped 7.8% since January 26, 2018.
Why US Natural Gas Consumption Rose on March 8–14
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption increased ~5.5% to 80.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on March 8–14, 2018.
US Dry Natural Gas Production Increased on March 8–14
According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production increased 0.1% to 78.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on March 8–14, 2018.
Key Energy Services’ Stellar Performance in 2018
Key Energy Services’ stock price reached a YTD high at $17.34 on January 11. Since then, the stock price has declined 14.7% as of March 13.
Oil States International: Higher Earnings in the Next 12 Months?
As of December 31, 2017, Oil States International’s (OIS) EV decreased. Oil States International’s stock price declined compared to a year ago.
Iraq’s Crude Oil Production Is near a 6-Month High
Iraq’s crude oil production increased by 10,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 4,440,000 bpd in February 2018—compared to the previous month.
Crude Oil Traders Track Venezuela’s Oil Production
The EIA estimates that Venezuela’s crude oil production increased by 15,000 bpd to 1,620,000 bpd in February 2018—compared to January 2018.
Why Did US Dry Natural Gas Production Decline?
US dry natural gas production decreased 0.5% to 78.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on March 1–7, 2018, according to PointLogic.
Halliburton Recorded Strong Revenue Growth in 2017
Halliburton (HAL) registered the highest revenue growth in our group. Halliburton’s 2017 revenues increased 29.8% to $20.62 billion.
Why OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Declined in February
April US crude oil futures rose 0.2% from the previous settlement and were trading at $62.68 per barrel at 1:05 AM EST on March 6, 2018.
US Natural Gas Production Hits Record High
Monthly US natural gas production On February 28, 2018, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its monthly natural gas production data. It reported that US dry natural gas production rose 4.5% to a record high of 80.9 Bcf per day between November and December 2017. Production rose 7.3 Bcf (10%) per day year-over-year. US natural gas prices have fallen ~30% […]
Hedge Funds Reduced Net Long Positions in Crude Oil
Hedge funds’ net long positions in US crude oil futures and options contracts declined 1.4% to 444,370 on February 13–20, 2018.
US Natural Gas Futures near 2-Week High
March US natural gas futures contracts fell 0.34% to $2.62 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on February 23, 2018.
US Crude Oil Production Fell Slightly from Record High
US crude oil production decreased by 1,000 bpd to 10,270,000 bpd on February 9–16, 2018. However, production increased by 1,269,000 bpd or 14.1% YoY.
Crude Oil Futures Hit a 2-Week High
April WTI crude oil futures contracts rose 1.8% to $62.77 per barrel on February 22, 2018. Brent oil futures rose 1.4% to $66.39 per barrel.
Analyzing Iran’s Crude Oil Production
According to the EIA, Iran’s crude oil production increased by 10,000 bpd to 3.8 MMbpd in January 2018—compared to December 2017.
Venezuela’s Crude Oil Production: Bullish Crude Oil Prices
Venezuela’s crude oil production declined by 35,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 2.1% to 1,605,000 bpd in January 2018.
Will the US Dollar Recover from 3-Year Lows?
The US dollar depreciated 1.5% to 89.1 on February 9–16, 2018. US crude oil prices advanced 4.2% last week.
Will US Natural Gas Consumption Hit a New Record in 2018?
US natural gas consumption dropped ~7% to 86.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on February 8–14, 2018, according to PointLogic.
Could US Natural Gas Rigs Impact Natural Gas Prices?
Baker Hughes, a General Electric (GE) company, will release its weekly US natural gas rig count report on February 16, 2018.
Will OPEC’s Production Cuts Offset Record Crude Oil Production?
US crude oil production increased by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,271,000 bpd on February 2–9, 2018.
Saudi Arabia and the US Dollar Support Crude Oil Futures
March US crude oil futures contracts rose 2.4% to $60.60 per barrel on February 14, 2018. Brent oil futures rose 2.6% to $64.36 per barrel.
US Dollar Could Support Crude Oil Futures
March US crude oil futures rose 0.51% to $59.59 per barrel at 1:00 AM EST on February 13, 2018.
Schlumberger versus Halliburton: Analyzing Free Cash Flow in 4Q17
Halliburton recorded $572.0 million in free cash flow in 4Q17, a 25.0% increase compared to 4Q16 when HAL’s FCF was $459.0 million.
Is US Dollar Stalling the Rally in Crude Oil Futures?
The US Dollar Index appreciated 0.6% to 89.19 on February 2, 2018. The dollar appreciated to due to better-than-expected US jobs data.
SLB and HAL: Which Has Higher Implied Volatility?
On December 31, 2018, Schlumberger’s (SLB) implied volatility was 22.6%. Since December 31, 2017, its implied volatility has increased from 21.4% to the current level.
Is Global Oil Demand Key to Crude Oil Bulls?
The EIA estimates that global oil demand could average 100.1 MMbpd in 2018. Global oil demand could increase to 101.75 MMbpd in 2019.
What Are the Key Resistance Levels for Crude Oil Futures?
March US crude oil futures were above their 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages on January 26, 2018—more bullish momentum for oil prices.
Strong Demand and Production Cuts Could Impact Crude Oil Futures
US crude oil futures (DWT) (UCO) contracts for March delivery rose 0.96% to $66.14 per barrel on January 26, 2018.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Eighth Time in 10 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose by 0.64 MMbbls (million barrels) to 139.8 MMbbls on January 12–19, 2018, according to the EIA.
Is US Crude Oil Production near an All-Time High?
US crude oil production rose by 128,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 1.3% to 9,878,000 bpd on January 12–19, 2018, according to the EIA.
Crude Oil Prices Could Hit $80 per Barrel in 2018
BBL Commodities is one of the largest oil hedge funds in the world. BBL Commodities expects that Brent crude oil prices could hit $80 per barrel in 2018.
US Dollar Hit a 3-Year Low: Is It Bullish for Crude Oil?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) fell 0.34% to 90.09 on January 23—the lowest level since December 2014. The fall supported crude oil prices on January 23, 2018.
National Oilwell Varco’s Next-7-day Stock Price Forecast
On January 18, National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) implied volatility (or IV) was ~30%. Its 3Q17 earnings were announced on October 26. Since then, its implied volatility has remained nearly unchanged at around this level.
How National Oilwell Varco Performed in 3Q17
From 3Q16 to 3Q17, National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) Wellbore Technologies segment witnessed 32% revenue growth. On the other hand, its Rig Systems segment revenue declined ~30%.
Refinery Margins and US Oil Production Could Pressure Oil Futures
The EIA will release its weekly crude oil production data on January 24, 2018. Baker Hughes will release its weekly US crude oil rigs report on January 26.
Cushing Inventories Hit January 2015 Low
A Bloomberg survey estimates that the crude oil inventories at Cushing could have declined by 2.3 MMbbls (million barrels) on January 12–19, 2018.
US Natural Gas Futures Could End This Week on a Bullish Note
US natural gas (UNG) futures contracts for February delivery are above their 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages on January 19, 2018.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the Third Time in 10 Weeks
US distillate inventories fell by 3.8 MMbbls or 2.7% to 139.2 MMbbls on January 5–12, 2018. The inventories fell by 29.9 MMbbls or 18% from a year ago.
US Gasoline Inventories: More Pain for Crude Oil Prices?
US gasoline inventories increased by 3.6 MMbbls (million barrels) or 1.5% to 241 MMbbls on January 5–12, 2018, according to the EIA.
US Crude Oil Inventories Fell 10% in the Last 10 Weeks
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories declined by 6.9 MMbbls (million barrels) or 1.6% to 412.7 MMbbls on January 5–12, 2018.
Analyzing Weatherford International’s Growth Drivers in 3Q17
Weatherford International (WFT) saw robust revenue growth (a ~20% rise) from 3Q16 to 3Q17. On the other hand, WFT’s Latin America region declined the most (a 10.2% fall) during the period.
India’s Crude Oil Imports Hit a Record in 2017
India is the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer. Its oil imports hit a record in 2017. India’s crude oil imports rose 1.8% to 4.3 MMbpd in 2017.
US Dollar Hit a 3-Year Low: Good News for Crude Oil?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) fell 0.64% to 90.39 on January 16, 2018—the lowest level since December 2014.
Will US Oil Production Pressure Crude Oil Futures?
February WTI crude oil futures contracts fell 0.9% to $63.73 per barrel on January 16. Brent oil futures fell 1.6% to $69.15 per barrel on the same day.
Cushing Inventories Fell 33% from the Peak
Analysts expect that Cushing crude oil inventories could have declined on January 5–12, 2018. A fall in Cushing inventories is bullish for oil prices.
Will Crude Oil Futures and Wall Street Extend Their Rally?
February WTI crude oil futures contracts rose 0.34% to $64.52 per barrel at 12:05 AM EST on January 16, 2018. It’s the highest level since December 2014.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Rise or Fall in 2018?
February US natural gas (UGAZ) futures contracts are above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages on January 11, 2018.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Seventh Time in 8 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose by 4.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 143.1 MMbbls between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018.
Massive Fall in Crude Oil Inventories Pushed Oil Prices Higher
US crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 419.5 MMbbls between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018.
Halliburton’s Next 7-Day Stock Price Forecast
Halliburton stock will likely close between $53.56 and $49.70 in the next seven days. Halliburton’s stock price was $51.63 on January 4, 2018.
Are US Crude Oil Rigs Impacting Crude Oil Prices?
US crude oil rigs fell by five or 0.7% to 742 between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018. The rigs were near an eight-week low.
Cushing Inventories Hit February 2015 Low
A Bloomberg survey estimated that the crude oil inventories at Cushing could have fallen by 1.5 MMbbls between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018.
Will Crude Oil Futures and S&P 500 Move in the Same Direction?
February US crude oil (UWT) (USL) futures contracts rose 0.5% to $61.73 per barrel on January 8. Prices are near the highest level since December 2014.
What’s Schlumberger’s Next 7-Day Stock Price Forecast?
On January 2, 2018, Schlumberger’s (SLB) implied volatility was ~22%. Schlumberger’s 3Q17 earnings were announced on October 20, 2017.
US Natural Gas Futures Could Continue to Fall
Hedge funds’ net long positions in US natural gas futures (UGAZ) (UNG) and options contracts were at 5,318 for the week ending January 2, 2018.
Crude Oil Futures and Wall Street Extends the Rally
US crude oil futures contracts for February delivery also rose 0.6% to $62.01 per barrel on January 4, 2018—the highest settlement since December 2014.
Decoding US Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Last Week
According to the API, US gasoline inventories rose by 1.9 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 22–29, 2017.
US Crude Oil Output Hit the Highest Level since May 1971
US crude output increased by 167,000 bpd to 9.64 MMbpd in October 2017—compared to the previous month. It was the highest level since May 1971.
Cushing Inventories Could Boost Crude Oil Prices in 2018
Cushing inventories fell by 1,584,000 barrels to 51.4 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 15–22, 2017, according to the EIA.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the 5th Time in 6 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose by 1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 129.9 MMbbls from December 15 to 22, per the EIA. Inventories rose 0.8% week-over-week but declined by 21.6 MMbbls or 14.3% year-over-year.
US Crude Oil Inventories Have Fallen ~10.6% in 2017
February WTI crude oil futures (DWT)(SCO) contracts rose 0.8% to $60.3 per barrel at 12:45 AM EST on December 29, 2017—the highest level since June 2015.
What Could Drive Crude Oil Futures for the 1st Week of 2018
February WTI crude oil (DBO)(USO) futures contracts rose 0.3% to $59.84 per barrel on December 28. Brent oil (BNO) futures rose 0.4% to $66.72 per barrel on the same day.
US Gasoline Demand Could Drive Crude Oil Prices Higher
According to the EIA, the four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 42,000 bpd or 0.5% to 9 MMbpd (million barrels per day) on December 8–15, 2017.
Will US Crude Oil Inventories Drive Oil Prices to $62 per Barrel?
For the week ending December 15, 2017, US crude oil inventories fell for the fifth straight week. So far, nationwide inventories have fallen 9.8% in 2017.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Fourth Time in 5 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose for the fourth time in the last five weeks. They rose ~3% in the last five weeks, which is bearish for diesel and oil prices.
Crude Oil Prices: Which Factor Could Change the Trend?
The EIA estimated that US crude oil production rose by 9,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,789,000 bpd on December 8–15, 2017.