Yellen Wants to Keep Negative Rates on the Table, Helping Gold
When the Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, testified to Congress on February 11, she affirmed the Fed’s consideration of negative interest rates. Under a negative interest rate scenario, investors would pay interest to the bank for holding their money.
Why gold supply dynamics differ from other commodities’ dynamics
China is the largest gold producer in the world, accounting for 14% of total production. East Asia as a whole produces 21% of the total newly mined gold. Latin America produces around 18% of the total.
What’s up with Kinross’s Upgrades?
For Kinross Gold, the analyst recommendations are equally divided between “buy” and “hold” at 44% each, while 11% of the analysts recommend a “hold.”
How Much Could Brexit and Volatility Control Gold?
Fears in the overall financial market about a Brexit, the possible exit of Britain from the European Union, have abated. This helped gold fall.
How Sentiments surrounding the Dollar Are Playing on Gold, Miners
As the US dollar lost some ground on February 20, 2017, its weakening gave a push to gold prices. Gold rose ~0.2% over its previous trading day’s close.
Behind Kinross’s Production Growth in 2017
Kinross Gold (KGC) produced 671,956 GEOs (gold equivalent ounces) in 1Q17, which represents a 2.3% year-over-year decline and a sequential drop of 10.0%.
Goldcorp’s cost reduction compared to its peers
Goldcorp’s (GG) all-in sustaining costs (or AISC) are falling. In 2013, its AISC was $1,031 per ounce. It expects the AISC to be in the range of $950–$1,000 for 2014.
Key Insights from Goldcorp’s 3Q17 Earnings
Goldcorp (GG) reported its 3Q17 results after the market closed on October 25, 2017. It reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.13, which beat analysts’ expectations by $0.02.
What Could Affect Goldcorp Stock in 2017?
Goldcorp’s 4Q16 results beat market expectations, mainly due to lower costs and higher gold prices. The market was happy with the company’s results.
Low crude oil prices impact gold
Cheaper oil means lower inflation. This means gold should be affected negatively since it’s usually considered a hedge against inflation.
Analyzing Movement in Mining Companies’ Volatility Figures
On May 31, 2017, the implied volatilities of Royal Gold, Goldcorp, Agnico Eagle Mines, and Primero Mining stood at 26.5%, 30.7%, 32.1%, and 90.6%.
Analyzing the Mixed Performance of Miners on June 19
Goldcorp (GG), Yamana Gold (AUY), and Hecla Mining (HL) have fallen 4.1%, 15.7%, and 1.1% year-to-date, respectively. However, Gold Fields (GFI) has risen 14.6% year-to-date.
How Analysts Expect Gold Miners’ Earnings to Progress
Now that we’ve considered analysts’ revenue estimates for the senior gold miners under review in this series, let’s take a look at analysts’ EBITDA estimates.
Key Highlights of Iamgold’s Q2 2018 Earnings
Iamgold (IAG) generated revenues of $277.4 million in Q2 2018, which represents a YoY (year-over-year) growth of 1.1%.
How Analysts Rate Senior Gold Miners after Their 1Q17 Announcements
Among the senior gold miners (GDX), analysts are the most bullish on Newmont Mining (NEM), giving it 53% “buy” and 42% “hold” ratings.
Understanding Miners’ Correlation to Gold
Precious metals mining shares that have high correlations with gold include Royal Gold, GoldCorp, New Gold, and Newmont Mining.
Why Yamana Could Fall Harder than Its Peers if Gold Pulls Back
Historically, Yamana Gold has lagged behind its peers. Due to its high financial leverage, it’s a higher beta play on gold compared to its peers.
What Does Giant Miners’ Performance Indicate?
For mining companies, 2016 brought a ray of hope. Gold had the best quarterly performance in 30 years and silver climbed to its 11-month high.
Assessing variables that drive the outlook for gold prices
Physical buying from China and India should support the demand for gold. But a rate hike by the Fed could be the catalyst that could take gold down.
Precious Metal Moves on Thursday, September 28
Gold touched a one-month low on Thursday, September 28, due to the rise of the US dollar over the speculation of another rate hike in December 2017.
Which Gold Miners Could Grow Their Productions Going Forward?
After making discretionary cuts on exploration and capex for many years, gold miners (GDX) (JNUG) have started to refocus on production growth.
These Gold Miners Surprised Us with Unit Costs in 3Q17
AISC (all-in sustaining costs) are an encompassing measure that helps compare miners’ performance—a vital metric for investors. They show the company’s margin cushion at prevailing gold prices (GLD)(IAU).
Did the Precious Metals Rally Cause Miners to Run to the Hills?
Even though precious metals miners have seen a remarkable rally in their prices, many fund managers have begun unloading their holdings in gold equities.
How US labor conditions impact gold investors
It’s important to keep an eye on labor conditions since they offer a look at the future direction of gold prices and ultimately gold-backed ETFs.
Why Miners Fell on Monday, January 29
SLW and ABX saw YTD (year-to-date) losses of 2.8% and 0.83%, respectively, while GG has a YTD gain of 12%.
Newmont Mining’s Valuation Multiple: More Upside Potential?
Among senior gold miners (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM) has the second-highest forward enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 8.1x.
Gold Recovered as Markets Took a Breather following the Election
After surging to multimonth highs, gold slowly retreated to its original level. Gold fell from its overnight high, and equity markets rebounded from their fall.
Will Falling Gold Prices Lead to More Carnage for Miners?
Gold continues to trade at its five-year low. It’s hovering in the range of $1,100–$1,150 per ounce. Gold futures on COMEX lost 5.90% on a YTD basis.
Gold Demand Stays Strong in China
After the $5 billion stock market collapse in China, investors fled to gold. Even a third straight annual decline in prices has failed to make gold lusterless in China.
Why US public debt increased year-over-year in FY14
U.S. public debt is the amount owed by the federal government in terms of outstanding treasury securities. For September 2014, U.S. debt to GDP was 102.9%.
Which Gold Miners Could Offer Valuation Upsides after Q2 2018?
The average ratio of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the S&P 500 Index (SPY) is 0.18 compared to the ten-year average of 0.68.
Newmont Mining: Analyzing Its Production Drivers
In the fourth quarter, Newmont Mining (NEM) produced 1.44 million ounces—a rise of 8% YoY (year-over-year).
Kinross Gold Stock and Geopolitical Concerns after Q2 2018
After significantly outperforming peers in 2017, Kinross Gold (KGC) has underperformed this year.
Key Highlights from IAMGOLD’s Q3 2018 Earnings
IAMGOLD (IAG) generated revenue of $244.8 million in the third quarter, a YoY (year-over-year) fall of 9%.
Coeur Mining Stock Fell despite Q2 2018 Beat
Coeur Mining (CDE) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 25 after the market closed. The company reported an EPS of $0.01.
Is There a Significant Upside to Goldcorp’s Production Guidance?
In 2015, Goldcorp (GG) achieved record gold production of 3.5 million ounces. This is a solid 24% growth YoY. The company achieved its production guidance of 3.3–3.6 million ounces.
Why execution is key to Barrick’s share price going forward
Barrick’s high financial leverage is a key investor concern. Resolving this could lead to rerating of Barrick stock, a positive for Barrick’s share price.
How Did the Bank of Japan’s Decision Play on Gold?
Gold remained in the neutral range of $1,313–$1,319 per ounce as Bank of Japan gave its verdict, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.
Barrick Gold Reports Negative Free Cash Flow in Q2 2018
Barrick Gold (ABX) generated FCF of -$172.0 million in Q2 2018, which broke its streak of 12 consecutive quarters of positive FCF.
Keeping a Tab on Rating Changes in Senior Gold Mining
Berenberg noted that recent developments at Barrick, in addition to its deleveraging and strong free cash flow generation, are positives for the stock.
What Does Inflation’s Retreat Mean for Gold?
Inflation hedge Investors tend to hold gold in their portfolios as insurance against inflation. When inflation is high, the value of paper currency, in terms of the goods and services it can buy, falls. As investors want something that doesn’t lose its value, gold usually has a direct relationship with inflation. Demand for gold increases as inflation […]
What Goldcorp’s healthy prospects mean for investors
Goldcorp’s asset portfolio is located in politically stable, low-risk jurisdictions in the Americas. This is one of Goldcorp’s key advantages. Many gold miners are facing political instability and taxation issues.
Gold Fell as US Interest Rates Soared
Investors were somewhat pessimistic about gold during the last quarter of 2016. Most of the fluctuations were due to the news of the interest rate hike.
Why India’s real interest rates are moving up, affecting gold
Tracking China and India’s inflation figures can give you insight into gold prices’ future direction. It also provides you a look into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (or ETFs) like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).
How the Rate Hike Trajectory in the United States Impacts Gold
Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), and Gold Fields (GFI) have declined 5.2%, 5.4%, 6.2%, and 2.8%, respectively.
Inside the May Correlation Trends for Precious Metals
As global tumult grips markets and investors turn to mining stocks as safe havens, it’s crucial to understand which stocks are closely tied to precious metals.
What Affected Goldcorp Stock in 1Q17?
Goldcorp’s 4Q16 results beat market expectations mainly due to lower costs and higher gold prices.
Inside Barrick Gold’s Earnings: Why Analysts Have Lowered Estimates
After outperforming peers by a wide margin, Barrick Gold (ABX) has lagged behind so far in 2017.
Why Goldcorp Is on Many Analysts’ Wish Lists
Currently, 20 analysts are tracking Goldcorp (GG) stock. About 70% of them are recommending a “buy,” and 25% are recommending a “hold.”
Must-know: Why central bank policies impact gold price
Central bank policies can have a significant impact on gold price. Central banks are a large gold holder. They own ~30,500 tons of gold. This is close to 20% of the gold ever mined. As a result, their policies on gold sales, gold purchases, and other monetary policies can have a significant impact on gold price.
An Overview of OPGSX’s Precious Metal Holdings
OPGSX may also invest up to one-fifth of its portfolio directly into gold or silver bullion and other precious metals.
Goldcorp Has One of the Industry’s Strongest Project Pipelines
Goldcorp (GG) has one of the strongest project pipelines in the industry. These projects underpin the company’s 20% growth in reserves by 2021.
VGPMX Has Underperfomed the Market
Vanguard Precious Metal and Mining Investment Fund (VGPMX) lags in diversification, as it’s a pure sector fund.
C1 Santa Luz Gets Go-Ahead, But Will It Be Positive for Yamana Gold?
On July 28, Yamana Gold (AUY) announced the recommissioning of C1 Santa Luz, a project located in Bahia, Brazil. It was put on care and maintenance in 2014.
Will Goldcorp’s All-In Sustaining Costs Be Higher than Peers’?
Goldcorp continued with its lower cost trend, as the key cost metric AISC (all-in sustaining costs) fell 21% YoY and remained almost flat QoQ in 3Q15.
What Do Revenue Estimates for Gold Mining Companies Point to in 2Q16?
Wall Street analysts estimate revenue of $2.0 billion in 2Q16 for Barrick Gold (ABX), which is slightly higher than the $1.9 billion ABX earned in 1Q16.
Barclays on Goldcorp: 30% Upside from Its Current Level
According to Barclays (BCS), Goldcorp (GG) has the potential to provide nearly 30% upside from its closing price of $13.80 on June 23, 2017.
Why increasing money supply is related to inflation
Money supply is the total amount of currency and other liquid instruments in circulation in an economy. Money supply data is usually collected and published by the country’s central bank.
Gold Prices: Driven by Delayed Interest Rate Hike and Weak Dollar
Gold prices gained 1.71% YTD (year-to-date)—despite the US Dollar Index increasing by almost 9% YTD. Prices are in a long-term downtrend.
As Senior Gold Miners Underperform, Which Stocks Do Analysts Like?
North American senior gold miners (RING) had a strong run in 2016, with an average gain of 72% in the group as a whole.
What Caused the Divergence Between the Performance of GDX and GLD?
GDX has given a return of 60% YTD as of April 25, 2016, which is four times the return generated by the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in the same time period.
Why Gold’s Safe-Haven Demand Remains Tepid
Gold is often touted as the safe-haven asset that investors embrace in times of economic and political uncertainty.
Gold prices hold above the key support of $1,160
Gold April futures contracts are trading in a downward trending channel. Gold prices settled just above the key support on March 9, 2015.
Goldcorp’s Bright Outlook Pushes It onto Analysts’ Radar
Goldcorp stock has lost 4.7% year-to-date through the end of September, underperforming its close peers.
Which Senior Gold Miners Are Analysts Betting On?
As a group, the average gains of North American senior gold miners (GDX) (RING) have been muted.
Gold Prices Remain Almost Flat Despite the Appreciating Dollar
This series analyzes gold prices and market fundamentals. June gold futures trading on the COMEX slightly declined by 0.02% on May 22, 2015.
Why an increase in real interest rates makes gold lose its sheen
Gold doesn’t give any returns besides appreciation. Appreciation doesn’t always happen. As a result, gold has to compete against assets that yield something. When the return on the alternate assets begins to rise, the demand for gold falls. In a scenario where the real interest rates are rising continuously, the demand for gold—as an investment—will start falling.
Understanding Barrick Gold’s 1Q17 Miss
For 1Q17, ABX reported adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.14, which was lower than the consensus estimate of $0.20.
Barrick’s Cortez mine: Production down year-over-year
The Cortez mine is one of the largest and lowest-cost mines in the world, with huge upside exploration potential. It is Barrick’s largest-producing mine and contributes close to 15% of the total production.
Watch These Drivers in Assessing Yamana’s Future Valuation
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) valuation multiple has varied widely between 5.1x and 15.1x.
Factors That Impact Goldcorp’s Earnings Estimates
Wall Street analysts expect Goldcorp’s revenues to fall 2.3% to ~$3.4 billion in 2017.
Analysts’ Estimates: Could NEM’s Near-Term Profitability Decline?
Although 2017 has not been very good for Newmont Mining stock due to short-term issues, its outlook remains strong.
Which Senior Gold Miners Could Gain following the Fed’s Decision?
Senior gold miners are large miners with established positions. While there are variations between different miners, as a group, they usually follow gold prices.
Inside the Analyst Ratings for Kinross after Its 2Q16 Results
As of July 28, 2016, Kinross Gold was trading at $5.03 per share. About 32% of Wall Street analysts covering the stock have issued “buy” recommendations.
Why Barrick Gold Has Lost Favor with Analysts
According to the consensus compiled by Thomson Reuters, 22 analysts are currently covering Barrick Gold (ABX).
Gold Appears to Be Solid for the Short Term
If the uncertainty in the Eurozone increases, gold may rally. On the other hand, a sooner-than-expected rate hike would likely push down non-yielding assets such as gold.
Behind Goldcorp’s 5-Year Plan: What’s Influencing the Analysts
Goldcorp’s (GG) management has unveiled a plan to create value for the company over the next five years.
Citi Upgrades Barrick Gold—Why the Stock Needs More to Lift Off
Citigroup’s (C) Alexander Hacking upgraded Barrick Gold to “neutral” from “sell” on August 28 and lowered its target price from $12 to $11.
Inside Gold Production in 2016
Goldcorp’s gold production fell 16% YoY in 4Q16 to 761,000 ounces.
Forget Newmont’s 3Q16 Costs—They’re Going Much Lower
For 3Q16, Newmont Mining (NEM) reported AISC (all-in sustaining costs) of $925 per ounce, which is 5% higher YoY and 6% higher quarter-over-quarter.
Why Goldcorp Plans to Acquire Kaminak Gold
On May 12, 2016, Goldcorp (GG) announced the acquisition of Kaminak Gold (KMKGF) for 520 million Canadian dollars in a share swap transaction.
Production at Pueblo Viejo increases due to ramp-up
Barrick Gold’s 60% share in 3Q14 production at Pueblo Viejo was 168,000 ounces, an increase of 49% from the year-ago level. The increase is because of the full ramp-up of the mine following modifications to the facilities.
Why Investors Should Take a Look at Gold in H2 2018
Gold prices have gone through a rough patch recently with prices closing near their seven-month lows.
Kinross Gold’s Earnings Beat: Can It Sustain the Price Momentum?
On August 2, 2017, Kinross Gold (KGC) achieved another earnings beat, reporting EPS of $0.04, beating earnings expectations by $0.02 for 2Q17.
Why Barrick Gold’s Production Matters: What Could Lead to a Downgrade
Barrick Gold (ABX) produced ~1.43 million ounces of gold in 2Q17, which represents a growth of 7% on a year-over-year basis.
Must-know: Why US debt to GDP and gold price move together
Debt to gross domestic product (or GDP) is the ratio that shows how much a country owes versus how much it earns. Investors use this ratio to measure a country’s ability to make future payments on its debt. This impacts the country’s borrowing costs and government bond yields.
Gold sinks on Greek bailout extension
Agreement on the Greek bailout extension sent gold reeling to under $1,200 per ounce. Highly indebted Greece now has four months to get its ducks in a row.
Which Gold Stocks Do Analysts Favor ahead of Q3 2018 Earnings?
In the senior and intermediate gold miner space (GDX)(GDXJ), analysts are the most bullish on IAMGOLD (IAG), with 75.0% of analysts assigning it a “buy.”
Gold Reserves Fell in 2016, But Will 2017 Be Any Better?
Gold miners face the problem of compensating for every ounce they take out of the ground.
How Barrick Gold Plans to De-Lever Its Balance Sheet in 2017
Barrick Gold has reiterated that strengthening its balance sheet is its top priority. The company achieved debt reduction of $2.0 billion in 2016.
These Factors Could Turn Newmont Mining’s Fortunes around in 2019
Newmont Mining reported EPS of $0.33, which beat the consensus estimate by $0.14. Its revenue of $1.73 billion, however, missed the mark.
Which Stocks Are Uptrending in Their Correlations to Gold?
It’s expected that precious metal mining stocks will follow precious metals. So it’s crucial to know which stocks are closely associated with precious metals.
Stock Reactions: All Beats, No Misses for Senior Gold Miners in 2Q17
Newmont Mining (NEM), which started the gold miners’ 2Q17 earnings season on July 25, reported earnings per share of $0.46, soundly beating the consensus estimate of $0.26.
An Analysis of OPGSX’s Investment Methodology
The Oppenheimer Gold & Special Minerals Fund – Class A (OPGSX) takes an alternative approach to investing in precious metals and related securities.
Technical analysis update – GDX and GDXJ
GDX consists of publicly-traded global companies. The companies are primarily involved in gold mining. It has assets worth $7.2 billion.
How Gold Miners Could Benefit from Deregulation
A record number of junior companies attended the Precious Metals Summit. We are finding companies with attractive development projects in North America and West Africa as well as some exciting discoveries that merit watching.
Comparing price movements in other commodities versus gold price
Gold is related to silver, oil, and copper. Relationships between commodities are examined to establish if one commodity’s price can fuel another commodity’s price. For example, it’s universally acknowledged that gold and silver prices are related. Silver’s price depends on gold’s price.
These Issues Impacted Kinross’s Costs in 2Q16
Kinross reported AISC of $988 per ounce in 2Q16, which is an improvement of 2.3% YoY (year-over-year) but is higher sequentially by 2.6%.
What to Watch for on Barrick Gold’s 1Q18 Earnings Call
Barrick Gold (ABX) generated negative returns amounting to 9.7% year-to-date (or YTD) as of April 17.
Must-know: Why gold is important in China
In 2013, China passed India as the largest gold consumer. China’s private sector gold demand reached a record level of 1,132 tons in 2013. China’s middle class has been increasing. This supports gold demand. Recent research from the World Gold Council (or WGC) shows that there are 300 million people in China’s middle class. In just five years, China’s middle class is expected to grow to 500 million.