Gordon Kristopher

US gasoline prices hit $1.14 per gallon on February 8, 2016—the lowest in 12 years. As of November 29, 2016, prices rose 21.1% from their lows in February.

Under President Obama’s tenure, US crude oil production rose 92% and peaked at 9.6 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2015.

The EIA divides the United States into five storage regions. Let’s assess the changes in crude oil inventories for these regions between September 30 and October 7.

Volatility in crude oil prices impacts the earnings of oil and gas producers such as Northern Oil & Gas (NOG), Comstock Resources (CRK), Swift Energy (SFY), and Triangle Petroleum (TPLM).

Natural gas futures contracts for September delivery fell by 0.4% and settled at $2.55 per MMBtu on August 11. Natural gas prices tested two-month lows.

Russia’s crude oil production rose to 10.84 MMbpd in June 2016—compared to the previous month—according to sources from the Russian Energy Ministry.

The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices rose by 0.8% week-over-week and closed at $2.40 per gallon on June 6, 2016.

July WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading in NYMEX fell by 0.47% and settled at $49.1 per barrel on Tuesday, May 31, 2016.

China’s crude oil production fell to the lowest level in four years. It fell by 5.6% YoY (year-over-year) to 16.6 metric tons in April 2016.

When El-Niño occurs, it keeps the sea surfaces warmer. This causes milder-than-normal cold temperatures across the sea and some parts of the US.

The EIA reported that India produced 1 MMbpd (million barrels per day) of crude oil in 2014 and 2015. It’s expected to increase marginally in 2016 and 2017.

The slowing Chinese crude oil production and robust demand from teapot refineries will lead to a 4% rise in Chinese crude oil imports.

Seasonality plays a key role in influencing crude oil prices. Crude oil prices tend to rise in August due to the summer driving season, which results in a rise in gasoline demand.

US on-highway diesel fuel prices rose by 2% and were at $2.02 per on March 7, 2016. The current diesel prices are 46% lower than they were a year ago.

The consensus of slowing US crude oil production will continue to narrow the supply and demand gap as long as demand stays steady.

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecasts that the world economy will grow by 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017.

US natural gas prices have fallen for the third time in the last five trading sessions. Prices are following the long-term bearish trend and trading close to 16-year lows.

The EIA estimates the global crude oil supply and demand gap to average 1 MMbpd in 2016 and 0.2 MMbpd in 2017. It reported that global consumption should grow 1.2 MMbpd in 2016 and 1.5 MMbpd in 2017.

The EIA estimates that contango trade will be unviable until contango conditions reach $10–$12 per barrel. Citigroup suggests that if oil prices fall below $30 per barrel, it will be unviable to store crude oil at sea.

Thus, Iran’s Western oil sanctions were lifted on Saturday, January 16, 2016. On Sunday, January 17, Iran stated that it would increase its crude oil production by 500,000 bpd (barrels per day) as soon as possible.

US benchmark WTI crude oil prices averaged at $49 per barrel in 2015. WTI and Brent crude oil prices closed below $40 per barrel in 2015.

China and the United States are the largest crude oil importers in the world. In 2015, they consumed about 30.5 MMbpd (million barrels per day) of crude oil and liquid fuels, per the EIA.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that the US gasoline inventory rose by 8.4 MMbbls to 240.4 MMbbls for the week ending January 8, 2016.

OPEC members Nigeria, Libya, and Venezuela have the highest total cost of producing crude oil at $31.6 per barrel, $23.80 per barrel, and $23.50 per barrel.

The API (American Petroleum Institute) published its weekly crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventory report on January 12, 2016.

Market estimates from Bloomberg suggest that China’s crude oil imports in 2016 may rise by 8% to 7.2 MMbpd (million barrels per day).

US oil and gas exploration and production companies are under severe pressure.

The depressed energy market has erased just over $1 trillion of market capitalization from oil and gas companies around the globe.

Crude oil prices like any other commodity are subject to changes based on the supply and demand dynamics.

The world’s largest producer of crude oil is Russia. It is also among the largest crude oil exporters.

The US and China are the top oil consuming countries in the world. The demand from the US is expected to be robust in 2016.

OPEC countries control 40% of global crude oil production and have around 81% of global crude oil reserves, as of 2014.

Crude oil and the US Dollar Index are inversely related. The appreciation of the US dollar will negatively influence crude oil prices.

Cold winter weather could drive natural gas prices higher. But on the other hand, record natural gas stocks will push natural gas prices lower.

October WTI crude oil futures rose for the first time after falling for two consecutive days. Slowing US crude oil production is driving crude oil prices.

August WTI crude oil futures contracts fell by $0.74 and closed at $50.15 per barrel on July 20. Brent fell by $0.45 and settled at $56.65 at the close of trade.

On May 15, 2015, Baker Hughes (BHI) reported that natural gas rigs increased slightly by two to 223 for the week ending May 15.