Gordon Kristopher
Disclosure: I am in full compliance with all ethics and other policies for Market Realist research analysts. I am not invested in securities that I cover on Market Realist.
More From Gordon Kristopher
US Natural Gas Price Drivers on August 6–10
US natural gas futures increased 1.3% to $2.81 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on July 26–August 2.
Smaller Build in US Natural Gas Inventories Supported Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 35 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,308 Bcf on July 20–27.
Why OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Rose in July
On July 30, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 70,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.64 MMbpd in July.
Crude Oil Prices: Is More Downside Possible?
The API reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 5.6 MMbbls (million barrels) on July 20–27.
Analyzing the S&P 500 and Energy Prices in July
The S&P 500 rose ~0.49% to 2,816.29 on July 31. Renewed trade negations between the US and China supported the S&P 500.
Moving Averages Suggest WTI Crude Oil Could Trend Higher
WTI and Brent oil prices could average $65.95 per barrel and $71.80 per barrel in 2018, according to the EIA.
WTI Cushing–WTI Midland Spread at Highest Level since August 2014
The Brent-WTI Midland spread reached $23.11 per barrel on May 31, which was its highest level since August 2014.
Crucial Drivers for the S&P 500 and Crude Oil
The S&P 500 Index fell ~0.58% to 2,802.60 on July 30. Eight of the 11 key sectors in the S&P 500 dropped on July 30.
Are Hedge Funds Reducing Bullish Bets on US Natural Gas?
Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.
US Crude Oil Rigs Recovered from a Two-Month Low
US crude oil rigs rose by three to 861 on July 20–27. The rigs hit 858 for the week ending July 20—near the lowest level since May 18.
Record US Natural Gas Production Kept a Lid on the Prices
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.5% to 81 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 19–25.
Smaller Rise in US Natural Gas Inventories Helped the Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 24 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,273 Bcf on July 13–20.
Is US Gasoline Demand Helping Oil Bulls?
US gasoline consumption averaged 9.32 MMbpd in 2017. Gasoline consumption could average 9.31 MMbpd in 2018 and 9.36 MMbpd in 2019.
Large Drop in US Gasoline Inventories Helped Oil Futures
US gasoline production decreased 0.4% to 10.3 MMbpd (million barrels per day) on July 13–20. The production decreased 1.3% from a year ago.
US Crude Oil Inventories Hit the Low from February 20, 2015
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 404.9 MMbbls on July 13–20.
US Dollar Index Is Important for Crude Oil Traders
The US Dollar Index fell ~0.1% to ~94.6 on July 24, while September WTI oil futures rose 0.93% to $68.52 per barrel on the same day.
Which Catalysts Could Push Crude Oil Prices Higher?
The API reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 407.6 MMbbls on July 13–20.
US Crude Oil Rigs Approach a Two-Month Low—What’s Next?
Active WTI crude oil futures decreased 1.0% to $70.46 per barrel from July 13 to July 20.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Rise Next Week
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas consumption increased 4.5% to 65.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 12–18.
How Does US Natural Gas Production Impact Prices?
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.
US Crude Oil Inventories Are 2% below Their Five-Year Average
Yesterday, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its oil inventory report.
Is President Trump Helping Crude Oil Bulls or Bears?
WTI crude oil prices fell 8.2% on June 29–July 17. August WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.03% to $68.08 per barrel on July 17.
Crude Oil Bears Could Overshadow Oil Bulls
August WTI oil futures contracts fell 0.7% in early morning trading on July 18. Brent and WTI crude oil futures rose ~0.5% and ~0.03% on July 17.
Crude Oil and the S&P 500’s Price Movement on July 17
The S&P 500 rose ~0.4% to 2,809.55 on July 17—the highest closing since February 1. The index rose due to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bullish comments.
The OECD’s Oil Inventories: Are the Oil Bulls Back?
The EIA estimates that OECD’s oil inventories decreased by 0.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 2,834.3 MMbbls in June compared to the previous month.
WTI Cushing–WTI Midland Spread Drops from Multiyear High
The WTI Cushing-WTI Midland spread was $11.25 per barrel on July 16, compared to $13.25 per barrel on July 9.
The Brent–WTI Spread Drops ~10.4% in the Last Five Sessions
The Brent-WTI crude oil spread was $3.78 per barrel on July 16, down from $4.22 per barrel on July 9. The Brent-WTI spread dropped ~10.4% from July 9 to July 16.
These Factors Could Pressure the S&P 500 and Crude Oil
Pressured by the drop in crude oil prices and energy stocks, the S&P 500 Index fell ~0.1% to 2,798.43 on July 16.
US Natural Gas Rigs Are near a Four-Week High
Baker Hughes reported that US natural gas rigs rose by two to 189 on July 6–13—the highest level since June 15.
US Could Be the World’s Largest Crude Oil Producer by 2020
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that the US crude oil output was steady at 10,900,000 bpd on June 29–July 6.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Hits a Three-Year High
Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE), published its US crude oil rig count report on July 6, indicating that the US crude oil rig count rose by five last week to 863, its highest level since March 2015.
US Gasoline Demand Could Hit a New Record
The EIA estimates that the four-week average US gasoline demand increased 2.4% to 9,701,000 bpd (barrels per day) on June 22–29.
US Gasoline Inventories Help Gasoline Futures
US gasoline futures rose 0.6% to $2.13 per gallon on July 5 due to the larger-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories.
US Oil Production Steady for the Third Straight Week
The EIA estimates that the US crude oil production could average 10,790,000 bpd in 2018 and 11,760,000 bpd in 2019.
Decoding US Natural Gas Inventories from June 22 to 29
On July 6, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its natural gas storage report.
US Jobs Help S&P 500 to Rise on July 6, Oil and Gas Also Rise
The S&P 500 rose ~0.85% to 2,759.82 on July 6, its highest level in two weeks.
Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Production Could Hit a New Record
Reuters estimates that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production increased by 700,000 bpd to 10,700,000 bpd in June—compared to the previous month.
US Dollar Index Fell from an 11-Month High
The US Dollar Index fell ~0.38% to ~94.67 on July 3, while August WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.3% to $74.14 per barrel that same day.
Gasoline Inventories Could Push Oil Prices to Multiyear Highs
The API reported that US gasoline inventories fell by ~3.1 MMbbls (million barrels) on June 22–29.
WTI Crude Oil Hit $75 on July 3: What’s Next?
August WTI crude oil prices hit an intraday high of $75.27 per barrel on July 3—the highest level since November 2014.
Analysts Upgrade WTI and Brent Crude Oil Price Forecasts
WTI crude oil futures increased ~8.6% on June 25–July 2. Expectations of a drop in US crude oil inventories could support oil prices.
OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Rose in June
On July 2, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 320,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32,320,000 bpd in June.
Analyzing Hedge Funds’ Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.
What’s Impacting S&P the 500 and Crude Oil?
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose ~1.7% to $271.28 during the first half of the year. SPY aims to track the performance of the S&P 500 Index.
The Price of WTI Oil Hits $70 per Barrel: Are the Bulls Back?
US crude oil inventories fell 9.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 421.4 MMbbls from June 15–22.
WTI Crude Oil: Key Support and Resistance Levels
WTI crude oil futures increased ~3.4% on June 18–25. Expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventories could support oil prices.
Why Did the WTI Cushing-WTI Midland Spread Drop?
The WTI Cushing-WTI Midland spread was at $4.12 per barrel on June 25—compared to $9.7 per barrel on June 18. The spread fell 58% on June 18–25.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.9% to 186,799 on June 12–19.
EIA Reports Significant Build in US Natural Gas Inventories
On June 21, the EIA released its natural gas storage report. It reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,004 Bcf from June 8 to 15.
OPEC Meeting: Crude Oil Prices and Energy Sector Pressure S&P 500
The S&P 500 fell ~0.63% to 2,749.76 on June 21. The decline in crude oil prices pressured energy stocks, which in turn pressured the S&P 500 ahead of the OPEC meeting.
API Reports a Decline in US Crude Inventories
The API reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 3 MMbbls (million barrels) on June 8–15.
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production Is near a Five-Month High
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production increased by 60,000 bpd to 10,120,000 bpd in May—compared to the previous month.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production and OPEC’s Meeting
Russia’s crude oil output averaged 10.97 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in May. Russia’s crude oil production averaged 11.1 MMbpd in early June.
US Natural Gas Rigs Fell to a Ten-Week Low
Baker Hughes reported that the US natural gas rig count fell by four to 194 on June 8–15—the lowest level since April 13.
Hedge Funds’ Net Bullish Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.1% to 190,432 on June 5–12.
EIA Upgrades US Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts for 2018
Market intelligence company Pointlogic estimates that US natural gas consumption fell ~0.9% to 57.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.
EIA Upgrades US Natural Gas Production Forecasts for 2018, 2019
Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.
Lower US Crude Oil Production Forecasts for 2019
The EIA reported that US crude oil production increased by 100,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10.9 MMbpd on June 1–8.
Large Drop in US Crude Oil Inventories Helps Oil Bulls
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 432.4 MMbbls on June 1–8.
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Futures Rose, SPY Fell
The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.2% of the S&P 500 Index, fell 0.4% on June 13. XLE fell ~0.4% to $76.42 on June 13.
OECD’s Crude Oil Inventories Rebounded in May
The EIA estimates that OECD’s crude oil inventories increased 0.9% to 2,840.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in May—compared to the previous month.
Why the S&P 500 and WTI Crude Oil Rose on June 12
July WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.4% to $66.36 per barrel on June 12 due to the expectation of a fall in US crude oil inventories.
Venezuela’s Crude Oil Production Fell Again
Reuters estimates that Venezuela’s crude oil output decreased by 50,000 bpd to 1,450,000 bpd in May—compared to the previous month.
What to Expect from OPEC’s Meeting
Iran’s crude oil production averaged 3.80 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in May. The production was near a nine-year high.
Decoding US Natural Gas Consumption Trends
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption rose ~2.1% to 57.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from May 31 to June 6.
US Natural Gas Inventories: Lowest since 2014 This Time of Year
On June 7, the EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose 92 Bcf to 1,817 Bcf from May 25 to June 1.
Can the US Dollar Index Help WTI Crude Oil Prices?
The US Dollar Index fell ~0.13% to 93.89, and July WTI oil futures rose ~1.2% on June 5.
American Petroleum Institute: US Crude Inventories Fell Last Week
On June 5, the API (American Petroleum Institute) released its crude oil inventory report.
Is OPEC’s Compliance to the Production Cut Deal Declining?
A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production declined by 70,000 bpd to 32 MMbpd in May—compared to the previous month.
Crude Oil Futures: Drivers on June 4–8
The API is scheduled to release its crude oil inventory report on June 5. The EIA is scheduled to release its US crude oil production data on June 6.
Are Crude Oil Bulls Tracking US Gasoline Demand?
The EIA estimates that the four-week average US gasoline demand increased 1.6% to 9,671,000 bpd (barrels per day) on May 18–25.
Crude Oil Futures and the S&P 500’s Price Action
The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.1% of the S&P 500, rose 0.5% on June 1. XLE rose ~0.5% to $76.38 on June 1.
Crude Oil Prices and the S&P 500 Declined on May 31
The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.1% of the S&P 500 Index, fell 0.8% on May 31. XLE fell ~0.8% to $76 on May 31.
Will Libya’s Crude Oil Production Decline in May?
Libya plans to increase its crude oil production in 2018 despite ongoing production cuts mandated by OPEC.
How New Sanctions on Iran Could Affect Crude Oil Prices
On May 8, President Trump announced that the United States is exiting the Iran nuclear pact. Trump now plans to impose new sanctions on Iran.
Why Crude Oil Prices and the S&P 500 Are Feeling the Heat
The S&P 500 fell ~1.2% to 2,689.86 on May 29, marking the largest one-day decline in a month. Concerns about political uncertainty in Italy and the Eurozone pressured US bank stocks.
Could WTI Crude Oil Prices Rise This Week?
The API (American Petroleum Institute) is set to release its weekly crude oil inventory report on May 30, and the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is set to release its US crude oil production data on May 31.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Nears Multiyear High
Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE), released its US crude oil rig count report on May 25, indicating that the US crude oil rig count rose by 15 to reach 859 between May 11 and 18.
Cushing Inventories Drop for the First Time in 5 Weeks
According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), Cushing inventories fell for the first time in five weeks, by 1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 36.1 MMbbls between May 11 and 18.
Crude Oil Prices Pressure Energy Sector and the S&P 500
In this series, we’ll cover US gasoline demand, Cushing inventories, the US crude oil rig count, and some drivers for oil prices this week.
Analyzing US Natural Gas Consumption Trends
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption dropped ~1.4% to 56.7 Bcf per day on May 17–23.
Largest Injection in US Natural Gas Inventories since 2015
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,629 Bcf on May 11–18.
Gasoline Inventories Pressure Gasoline and Oil Prices
US gasoline inventories increased by 1.9 MMbbls to 233.9 MMbbls on May 11–18. The inventories have fallen by 5.9 MMbbls or 2.5% YoY.
Record US Crude Oil Production Weighs on Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US crude oil production increased by 2,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,725,000 bpd on May 11–18.
S&P 500 and the Energy Sector Moved in the Opposite Direction
The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.4% of the S&P 500 Index, fell 0.01% on May 23. XLE fell ~0.01% to $77.85 on May 23.
Hedge Funds Cut Net Long Positions in WTI Crude Oil
Hedge funds’ net long positions in US crude oil futures and options contracts trading in NYMEX and ICE declined by 15,322 to 419,907 on May 8–15.
US Crude Oil Exports Reached a New Record Again
The EIA estimates that US crude oil exports increased by 689,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 2,566,000 bpd on May 4–11.
Venezuela’s Falling Crude Oil Production Drives Oil Prices Higher
The EIA estimates that Venezuela’s crude oil production decreased by 45,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 1,465,000 bpd in April—compared to March.
Energy Sector and Crude Oil Prices Helped the S&P 500
The S&P 500 rose ~0.7% to 2,733.01 on May 21 due to the rise in industrial stocks and crude oil prices—the highest level in more than two months.
US Crude Oil Rigs Are Steady near March 2015 Highs
Baker Hughes reported that US crude oil rigs were flat at 844 on May 11–18—the highest level since March 13, 2015.
Cushing Inventories Rebound to January High
The EIA estimates that Cushing inventories increased by 0.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 37.2 MMbbls on May 4–11.
Is US Natural Gas Consumption Trending Higher?
PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US natural gas consumption increased ~4% to 57.5 Bcf per day on May 10–16.
Rising Crude Oil Prices Could Impact US Natural Gas Supplies
High crude oil prices and the improving natural gas pipeline capacity in the US have been driving the rise in natural gas supplies.
Largest Build in US Natural Gas Inventories since 2015
US natural gas inventories increased by 106 Bcf to 1,538 Bcf on May 4–11—the largest build in US natural gas inventories for this time of the year since 2015.
S&P 500 Fell, Brent Crude Hit $80 per Barrel
The S&P 500 fell ~0.1% to 2,720.13 on May 17. The rising US ten-year Treasury yield and escalating trade tensions pressured the S&P 500.
S&P 500 and Crude Oil’s Price Action on May 16
June WTI oil futures rose ~0.3% to $71.49 per barrel on May 16—the highest settlement since November 26, 2014.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Is near a 5-Year High
The EIA estimates that Libya’s crude oil production increased by 20,000 bpd to 1,005,000 bpd in April—compared to the previous month.
API Reports an Unexpected Rise in US Crude Oil Inventories
On May 15, the API released its crude oil inventory report. The API reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 4.85 MMbbls on May 4–11.
Crude Oil Prices and the Energy Sector Support the S&P 500
The S&P 500 rose ~0.1% to 2,730.13 on May 14 due to the rise in crude oil prices and energy stocks.
Cushing Inventories Are near January High
According to the EIA, Cushing inventories increased by 1.4 MMbbls (million barrels) to 37.2 MMbbls on April 27–May 4.