Gordon Kristopher

US natural gas futures increased 1.3% to $2.81 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on July 26–August 2.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 35 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,308 Bcf on July 20–27.

On July 30, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 70,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.64 MMbpd in July.

The API reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 5.6 MMbbls (million barrels) on July 20–27.

The S&P 500 rose ~0.49% to 2,816.29 on July 31. Renewed trade negations between the US and China supported the S&P 500.

WTI and Brent oil prices could average $65.95 per barrel and $71.80 per barrel in 2018, according to the EIA.

The Brent-WTI Midland spread reached $23.11 per barrel on May 31, which was its highest level since August 2014.

The S&P 500 Index fell ~0.58% to 2,802.60 on July 30. Eight of the 11 key sectors in the S&P 500 dropped on July 30.

Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.

US crude oil rigs rose by three to 861 on July 20–27. The rigs hit 858 for the week ending July 20—near the lowest level since May 18.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.5% to 81 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 19–25.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 24 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,273 Bcf on July 13–20.

US gasoline consumption averaged 9.32 MMbpd in 2017. Gasoline consumption could average 9.31 MMbpd in 2018 and 9.36 MMbpd in 2019.

US gasoline production decreased 0.4% to 10.3 MMbpd (million barrels per day) on July 13–20. The production decreased 1.3% from a year ago.

The EIA estimates that the US crude oil output was steady at 11 MMbpd on July 13–20. The production was steady for the second consecutive week.

The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 404.9 MMbbls on July 13–20.

The US Dollar Index fell ~0.1% to ~94.6 on July 24, while September WTI oil futures rose 0.93% to $68.52 per barrel on the same day.

The API reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 407.6 MMbbls on July 13–20.

Active WTI crude oil futures decreased 1.0% to $70.46 per barrel from July 13 to July 20.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas consumption increased 4.5% to 65.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 12–18.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil output rose by 100,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 11,000,000 bpd last week, a record high.

Yesterday, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its oil inventory report.

WTI crude oil prices fell 8.2% on June 29–July 17. August WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.03% to $68.08 per barrel on July 17.

August WTI oil futures contracts fell 0.7% in early morning trading on July 18. Brent and WTI crude oil futures rose ~0.5% and ~0.03% on July 17.

The S&P 500 rose ~0.4% to 2,809.55 on July 17—the highest closing since February 1. The index rose due to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bullish comments.

The EIA estimates that OECD’s oil inventories decreased by 0.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 2,834.3 MMbbls in June compared to the previous month.

The WTI Cushing-WTI Midland spread was $11.25 per barrel on July 16, compared to $13.25 per barrel on July 9.

The Brent-WTI crude oil spread was $3.78 per barrel on July 16, down from $4.22 per barrel on July 9. The Brent-WTI spread dropped ~10.4% from July 9 to July 16.

Pressured by the drop in crude oil prices and energy stocks, the S&P 500 Index fell ~0.1% to 2,798.43 on July 16.

Baker Hughes reported that US natural gas rigs rose by two to 189 on July 6–13—the highest level since June 15.

Baker Hughes reported that US crude oil rigs were flat at 863 on July 6–13. The rigs have risen by 98 or ~12.8% year-over-year.

US crude oil exports decreased 13.2% to 2,027,000 bpd on June 29–July 6. The exports increased by 1,109,000 bpd or 121% from a year ago.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that the US crude oil output was steady at 10,900,000 bpd on June 29–July 6.

The US Dollar Index rose ~0.1% to ~94.15 yesterday, while August WTI oil futures rose 0.4% to $74.11 per barrel.

Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE), published its US crude oil rig count report on July 6, indicating that the US crude oil rig count rose by five last week to 863, its highest level since March 2015.

The EIA estimates that the four-week average US gasoline demand increased 2.4% to 9,701,000 bpd (barrels per day) on June 22–29.

US gasoline futures rose 0.6% to $2.13 per gallon on July 5 due to the larger-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories.

The EIA estimates that the US crude oil production could average 10,790,000 bpd in 2018 and 11,760,000 bpd in 2019.

On July 6, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its natural gas storage report.

The S&P 500 rose ~0.85% to 2,759.82 on July 6, its highest level in two weeks.

Reuters estimates that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production increased by 700,000 bpd to 10,700,000 bpd in June—compared to the previous month.

The US Dollar Index fell ~0.38% to ~94.67 on July 3, while August WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.3% to $74.14 per barrel that same day.

The API reported that US gasoline inventories fell by ~3.1 MMbbls (million barrels) on June 22–29.

August WTI crude oil prices hit an intraday high of $75.27 per barrel on July 3—the highest level since November 2014.

August WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.3% to $74.14 per barrel on July 3. Brent oil futures rose 0.6% to $77.16 per barrel on the same day.

WTI crude oil futures increased ~8.6% on June 25–July 2. Expectations of a drop in US crude oil inventories could support oil prices.

On July 2, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 320,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32,320,000 bpd in June.

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose ~1.7% to $271.28 during the first half of the year. SPY aims to track the performance of the S&P 500 Index.

US crude oil inventories fell 9.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 421.4 MMbbls from June 15–22.

WTI crude oil futures increased ~3.4% on June 18–25. Expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventories could support oil prices.

The WTI Cushing-WTI Midland spread was at $4.12 per barrel on June 25—compared to $9.7 per barrel on June 18. The spread fell 58% on June 18–25.

Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.9% to 186,799 on June 12–19.

On June 21, the EIA released its natural gas storage report. It reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,004 Bcf from June 8 to 15.

The S&P 500 fell ~0.63% to 2,749.76 on June 21. The decline in crude oil prices pressured energy stocks, which in turn pressured the S&P 500 ahead of the OPEC meeting.

The API reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 3 MMbbls (million barrels) on June 8–15.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production increased by 60,000 bpd to 10,120,000 bpd in May—compared to the previous month.

Russia’s crude oil output averaged 10.97 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in May. Russia’s crude oil production averaged 11.1 MMbpd in early June.

The crude oil production from OPEC and non-OPEC producers is expected to increase by 300,000 bpd–600,000 bpd in OPEC’s upcoming meeting.

Baker Hughes reported that the US natural gas rig count fell by four to 194 on June 8–15—the lowest level since April 13.

Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.1% to 190,432 on June 5–12.

Market intelligence company Pointlogic estimates that US natural gas consumption fell ~0.9% to 57.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.

Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.

The EIA reported that US crude oil production increased by 100,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10.9 MMbpd on June 1–8.

The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 432.4 MMbbls on June 1–8.

The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.2% of the S&P 500 Index, fell 0.4% on June 13. XLE fell ~0.4% to $76.42 on June 13.

The EIA estimates that OECD’s crude oil inventories increased 0.9% to 2,840.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in May—compared to the previous month.

July WTI oil futures contracts rose 0.4% to $66.36 per barrel on June 12 due to the expectation of a fall in US crude oil inventories.

Reuters estimates that Venezuela’s crude oil output decreased by 50,000 bpd to 1,450,000 bpd in May—compared to the previous month.

Iran’s crude oil production averaged 3.80 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in May. The production was near a nine-year high.

PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption rose ~2.1% to 57.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from May 31 to June 6.

On June 7, the EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose 92 Bcf to 1,817 Bcf from May 25 to June 1.

The S&P 500 fell ~0.07% to 2,770.37 on June 7 due to the decline in technology stocks and global trade tariff tensions.

The US Dollar Index fell ~0.13% to 93.89, and July WTI oil futures rose ~1.2% on June 5.

On June 5, the API (American Petroleum Institute) released its crude oil inventory report.

A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production declined by 70,000 bpd to 32 MMbpd in May—compared to the previous month.

Reuters surveys estimate that Iran’s crude oil production decreased by 20,000 bpd to 3.80 MMbpd in May—compared to the previous month.

Active WTI crude oil futures have declined ~10.4% since May 21. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has dropped ~4% since May 21.

The API is scheduled to release its crude oil inventory report on June 5. The EIA is scheduled to release its US crude oil production data on June 6.

The EIA estimates that the four-week average US gasoline demand increased 1.6% to 9,671,000 bpd (barrels per day) on May 18–25.

The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.1% of the S&P 500, rose 0.5% on June 1. XLE rose ~0.5% to $76.38 on June 1.

The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.1% of the S&P 500 Index, fell 0.8% on May 31. XLE fell ~0.8% to $76 on May 31.

Libya plans to increase its crude oil production in 2018 despite ongoing production cuts mandated by OPEC.

On May 8, President Trump announced that the United States is exiting the Iran nuclear pact. Trump now plans to impose new sanctions on Iran.

The S&P 500 fell ~1.2% to 2,689.86 on May 29, marking the largest one-day decline in a month. Concerns about political uncertainty in Italy and the Eurozone pressured US bank stocks.

July WTI crude oil futures were trading above their 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages on May 25.

The API (American Petroleum Institute) is set to release its weekly crude oil inventory report on May 30, and the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is set to release its US crude oil production data on May 31.

Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE), released its US crude oil rig count report on May 25, indicating that the US crude oil rig count rose by 15 to reach 859 between May 11 and 18.

According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), Cushing inventories fell for the first time in five weeks, by 1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 36.1 MMbbls between May 11 and 18.

In this series, we’ll cover US gasoline demand, Cushing inventories, the US crude oil rig count, and some drivers for oil prices this week.

PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption dropped ~1.4% to 56.7 Bcf per day on May 17–23.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,629 Bcf on May 11–18.

US gasoline inventories increased by 1.9 MMbbls to 233.9 MMbbls on May 11–18. The inventories have fallen by 5.9 MMbbls or 2.5% YoY.

The EIA reported that US crude oil production increased by 2,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,725,000 bpd on May 11–18.

The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.4% of the S&P 500 Index, fell 0.01% on May 23. XLE fell ~0.01% to $77.85 on May 23.

The US Dollar Index rose ~0.4% to 93.6 on May 15–22—the highest level since December 18, 2017.

Hedge funds’ net long positions in US crude oil futures and options contracts trading in NYMEX and ICE declined by 15,322 to 419,907 on May 8–15.

The EIA estimates that US crude oil exports increased by 689,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 2,566,000 bpd on May 4–11.

The EIA estimates that Venezuela’s crude oil production decreased by 45,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 1,465,000 bpd in April—compared to March.