More From Gordon Kristopher
Natural Gas Prices Are Following the Price Channel
Mild weather and rising inventory estimates could drag natural gas prices lower. The key support for natural gas prices is seen at $2.60 per MMBtu.
Crude Oil Inventory Buildup Erases Crude Oil Gains
The weekly commercial crude oil inventory report was released by the EIA on April 8, 2015. Weekly crude oil inventories rose by 10.95 MMbbls.
Global Crude Oil Supply Outage Is near a 7-Month High
The EIA estimates that the global crude oil supply outage increased by 275,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 1,870,000 bpd in February 2018.
Asia’s Crude Oil Imports and Demand Could Drive Oil Prices
China’s General Administration of Customs estimates that the country’s crude oil imports fell by 810,000 bpd to 8.4 MMbpd in April 2017—compared to March.
Crude Oil Prices Settle below Key Moving Averages after Brexit
Market surveys project that the global crude oil glut could narrow due to supply outages in 2016.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions in WTI Contracts Hit More Lows
Hedge funds’ net long positions in WTI contracts fell by 36,248 contracts to 120,556 contracts for the week ending July 26, 2016, compared to the previous week.
Traders Are Tracking OPEC’s Meeting on June 22
The crude oil production from OPEC and non-OPEC producers is expected to increase by 300,000 bpd–600,000 bpd in OPEC’s upcoming meeting.
Crude Oil Inventories Rose despite Oil Demand from US Refineries
The rise in US crude oil production would have contributed to the rise in US crude oil inventories between October 28 and November 4, 2016.
Iran and Iraq’s Role in OPEC’s Meeting
The EIA estimates that Iran’s crude oil production was flat at 3.81 MMbpd in April 2017—compared to March 2017. Production rose 8.8% YoY.
US Natural Gas Inventories Are Higher than Their 5-Year Average
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories fell by 68 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,295 Bcf between February 24, 2017, and March 3, 2017.
What Should Energy Traders Look for This Week?
The events in the energy sector influence crude oil and natural gas prices. The ups and downs in crude oil prices impact oil and gas producers’ earnings.
Energy Calendar for the Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market
Looking at the energy calendar, there are important events in the energy sector this week. On Tuesday, the API will release its crude oil inventory report.
US Natural Gas Inventory Has Been Rising since April 2015
Natural gas stocks rose by 9 Bcf to 4,009 Bcf for the week ended November 20, 2015. Natural gas inventory rose due to rising production and a mild winter weather forecast.
Cushing Inventories Hit December 2014 Low
Analysts estimate that Cushing inventories could have declined on March 2–9. The EIA is scheduled to release its crude oil inventories report on March 14.
Crude Oil Market Shifts Focus to API Crude Oil Inventory Report
A Reuters survey showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 100,000 barrels between August 26 and September 2, 2016.
How the US Dollar Index Is Affecting Oil
The US Dollar Index rose ~0.1% to ~94.15 yesterday, while August WTI oil futures rose 0.4% to $74.11 per barrel.
Is Natural Gas Supply and Demand Narrowing?
Natural gas production from the lower 48 states of the US increased slightly by 0.6% to 79.82 Bcf as of May 20, 2015—compared to the previous week.
SPY trades flat after Greece delays debt deal
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) traded flat as investors were cautious about Greece’s debt deal negotiations with its Eurozone partners.
US Gasoline Inventories Fell for the Fourth Consecutive Week
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories declined by 3.4 MMbbls (million barrels) to 239.5 MMbbls on March 16–23, 2018.
US Natural Gas Consumption Rose for the 7th Time in 8 Weeks
Market intelligence company PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 4.4% between July 21–July 27, 2016. Gas consumption rose for the seventh time in the last eight weeks.
How a Fed Rate Hike Could Hurt Crude Oil Prices
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen 8% against global currencies in 2015. The rising dollar should put further pressure on the pessimistic oil market.
Why Did Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Hit a New Record?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Cushing crude oil stocks rose by 36,000 barrels to 65 MMbbls for the week ending February 12, 2016.
Iran and Russia Impact Crude Oil Prices
March WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (XLE) (USL) (USO) (UCO) futures contracts rose 0.5% and closed at $53.83 per barrel on February 3, 2017.
Analyzing China’s Crude Oil Imports and Fuel Exports
Platts surveys suggest that China’s crude oil imports in 2016 will average 7.4 MMbpd—10% higher than in 2015—due to demand from teapot refineries.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Hit September 2015 High
The US crude oil rig count rose by eight to 617 rigs from March 3–10, 2017. The US crude oil rig count has risen 33 times in the last 36 weeks.
Bearish Crude Oil Prices Pressured US Gasoline Futures
Bearish momentum in crude oil prices pressured gasoline prices on October 26, 2016. Gasoline active futures contracts rose 30% from their lows in February.
Crude Oil Futures Hit a 3-Year High
February WTI crude oil futures contracts rose 2.1% to $61.63 per barrel on January 3. Brent oil futures also rose 1.9% to $67.84 per barrel on January 3.
Natural Gas Prices Surge on Lowest Stockpile Gain in 2 Months
July natural gas futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 3.26% on Thursday. Natural gas prices closed at $2.85 per MMBtu on June 25, 2015.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Hit Lowest Levels since 1940s: What’s Next?
The US crude oil rig count fell by ten to 362 rigs for the week ending April 1, 2016, which is the lowest level since the 1940s.
Decoding OPEC Members’ Crude Production in July 2016
Lower crude oil prices impact US and international oil producers’ profitability such as PetroChina (PTR), Sanchez Energy (SN), and Stone Energy (SGY).
Behind the Natural Gas Price Forecasts for 2016 and 2017
In its March report, the EIA stated that the US natural gas supply-demand gap could average 2.89 Bcf per day in 2016 and rise to 4.05 Bcf per day in 2017.
What’s Affecting Natural Gas Futures?
December natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures contracts trading on NYMEX fell 0.97% to $3.05 per MMBtu (or million British thermal units) on October 26, 2017.
Will Crude Oil Futures Break Key Resistance of $54 per Barrel?
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for May delivery rose 1.2% to $51.6 per barrel in electronic trade at 5:20 AM EST on April 5.
US Crude Oil Rigs Are Steady at March 2015 High
Baker Hughes reported that US crude oil rigs were flat at 863 on July 6–13. The rigs have risen by 98 or ~12.8% year-over-year.
How US Crude Oil Imports and Refinery Demand Affect Inventories
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US refinery crude oil demand fell 182,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 15,370,000 bpd between October 7 and October 14.
US Crude Oil Inventories Are near January 2016 Levels
The EIA released its weekly crude oil inventory report on September 28, 2016. US crude oil inventories are near January 2016 levels.
Weekly US Natural Gas Consumption Is Higher for the Second Week
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose marginally for the second straight week for the week ending June 15—compared to the previous week.
Recovery in Crude Oil Prices: What Are the Key Drivers?
The IEA released its monthly Oil Market report on January 19, 2017. OPEC crude oil production fell by 320,000 bpd to 33,090,000 bpd in December 2016.
S&P 500 trades at its highest since December 2014
The S&P 500 was trading at 2,068.59 on February 10, 2015, the highest level since December 30, 2014.
Largest Weekly Decline for US Gasoline Inventories since April 2016
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 2.5 MMbbls to 238.1 MMbbls for the week ending May 13. It’s the largest decline since April 8, 2016.
Will Gasoline Inventories Impact Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices?
The API released its weekly inventory report on December 28, 2016. It estimates that US gasoline inventories fell by 2.8 MMbbls from December 16–23, 2016.
EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report Supports Bearish Traders
The EIA reported that the US commercial crude oil inventory rose by 2.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 487.4 MMbbls for the week ending December 25, 2015.
World Bank: US Natural Gas Prices Could Trade Higher in 2017
US natural gas inventories are 16.4% more than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could keep a lid on US natural gas prices.
Decoding US Natural Gas Inventories by Region
The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be ~4.0 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2016, which is the start of the 2016–2017 heating season.
Natural Gas Prices and Gas Rigs Move in the Same Direction
On Friday, June 5, Baker Hughes released the weekly natural gas rig count report. As expected, natural gas rigs fell by three to 222 for the week ending June 5.
US Natural Gas Supplies Fell due to Drop in Imports from Canada
PointLogic reported that natural gas supplies fell by 1.1% to 79.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day for the week ending June 29, 2016, compared to the previous week.
Triple Top Pattern: Crude Oil Prices Could Decline
WTI crude oil prices are declining for the third day in a row. The bearish sentiments could push oil to test the support of $55 per barrel.
Nordic Bank SEB Revises Crude Oil Price Forecasts
Leading Nordic bank SEB raised its Brent crude oil forecast to $48 per barrel for 2016 compared to its previous forecast of $44 per barrel.
Crude Oil Prices Rise for the Second Day, Led by EIA Inventory Data
The unexpected fall in crude oil inventory supported crude oil prices. The fall in US imports might have led to the fall in the US oil inventory.
US Crude Oil Rig Count: Turning Point for the Bear Market?
Baker Hughes (BHI) reported that the US crude oil rig count rose by 11 to 758 on June 16–23, 2017. Rigs rose 1.5% week-over-week and 129.8% year-over-year.
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: What Does the Future Hold?
Bloomberg surveys projected that Cushing crude oil inventories fell by 0.7 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending June 3—compared to the previous week.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the Third Time in 5 Weeks
US distillate inventories decreased by 2.4 MMbbls (million barrels) to 138.9 MMbbls on February 9–16, 2018, according to the EIA.
Natural Gas Could Test the Key Support of $2.50 per MMBtu
The key support level for natural gas is seen at $2.50 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark multiple times in April 2015. Resistance is seen at $2.75 per MMBtu.
Will OPEC Successfully Implement Its Production Cap Plans?
An OPEC meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2016, in Vienna. The meeting could provide details about the quota system for OPEC members.
How Does Gasoline Demand Impact Crude Oil Prices?
The EIA reported that US gasoline demand rose by 12,000 bpd to 9.8 MMbpd between July 15 and July 22. It rose by 0.12% week-over-week and 4.9% YoY.
US Crude Oil Prices near 18-Month High: What’s Next?
US crude oil (BNO) (USO) (UCO) (IEZ) prices are near an 18-month high as of February 6, 2017. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ are near all-time highs.
Crude Oil Prices Are Steady Due to OPEC’s Production Cut
Crude oil prices pared gains in post-settlement trade on February 14 due to the API’s (American Petroleum Institute) bearish crude oil inventory report.
Will Crude Oil Futures Extend the Bullish Momentum?
Record US crude oil production, profit-booking, and a larger-than-expected increase in Cushing inventories could pressure oil prices this week.
Will the API Inventory Report Lead the Crude Oil Price Drop?
Rising refinery utilization and declining US output will support crude oil prices. This is positive for crude oil prices.
Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production: Will It Impact Oil Prices in 2017?
Figures from the EIA suggest that non-OPEC crude oil production rose by 350,805 bpd to 44.6 MMbpd in September 2016—compared to the previous month.
Will the US Crude Oil Output Rise in November?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) published that the US crude oil output rose by 48,000 bpd to 9.2 MMbpd for the week ending October 30, 2015.
Commodities and the S&P 500 Are Feeling the Heat
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell ~0.5% to $268.8 on April 19, 2018. SPY targets to follow the S&P 500 Index’s performance.
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories Could Support Crude Oil Prices
A decrease in crude oil inventories at Cushing supports crude oil prices. High crude oil prices positively impact crude oil and gas producers’ earnings.
Cushing Inventories Increased for the First Time in 12 Weeks
A larger decline in Cushing inventories could have a positive impact on oil prices. US crude oil futures rose 1.8% to $62.41 per barrel on March 16, 2018.
Natural Gas Prices Are Trading Close to the Key Resistance
September natural gas futures contracts rose for the third day in a row. Natural gas prices have been trading close to the key resistance of $2.90 per MMBtu.
Unexpected Build in US Crude Oil Inventories Weighs on Crude Prices
WTI crude oil futures contracts for September delivery fell by ~2.4% and settled at $41.91 per barrel on July 27, 2016. In this series, we’ll look at US crude oil production and imports, refinery demand, and US gasoline and distillate prices and inventories.
US Crude Oil Inventories Pushed Crude Oil Prices Higher
The EIA released its weekly crude oil inventory report on April 18, 2018. US crude oil inventories decreased by 1 MMbbls to 427.5 MMbbls on April 6–13.
US Crude Oil Rig Counts Rose by 4 Last Week: What Does It Mean?
On October 14, 2016, Baker Hughes (BHI) released its weekly US crude oil rig count. It reported that the US crude oil rig count rose by four to 432 rigs from October 7–14, 2016.
Crude Oil Traders Are Skeptical about OPEC Production Cap Plans
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for November delivery fell 1.1% and closed at $50.79 per barrel on October 11, 2016.
Why US Gasoline Inventories Fell from All-Time High
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 2.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 256.4 MMbbls between February 10 and February 17, 2017.
How Will Traders Play the Major Oil Producers’ Meeting?
US crude oil prices were up by 12% in August 2016, partially due to speculation about the oil producers’ meeting, which could result in an output cap.
Decoding Weekly and Monthly US Crude Oil Production
The EIA estimates that monthly US crude oil production rose by 62,000 bpd, or 0.7%, to 9.1 MMbpd in March 2017—compared to February 2017.
Crude Oil Prices Rebound Due to a Draw in US Gasoline Inventories
September WTI crude oil futures contracts rose and closed at $40.83 per barrel on August 3. Prices rose due to an unexpected draw in US gasoline inventories.
How Could Next Week’s OPEC Meeting Drive Crude Oil Futures?
Crude oil futures WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures (DBO) for January delivery fell 0.22% to $57.89 per barrel, whereas E-mini S&P 500 (SPY) futures for December delivery rose 0.01% to 2,594.75. WTI crude oil prices are at a multiyear high. Higher oil prices benefit oil producers (RYE) (XLE) such as Chevron (CVX), Northern Oil […]
FOMC’s Meeting Could Impact the Dollar and Oil Prices
The FOMC’s two-day meeting will be held on December 12–13, 2017. The Fed is expected to raise the US interest rate during this meeting.
S&P 500 and Commodities Rose on March 29
The information technology, energy, and materials sectors rose 2.2%, 2.2%, and 1.9%, respectively, on March 29, 2018.
US Retail Gasoline Prices Rose for 3rd Time in 14 Weeks
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US retail gasoline prices rose 0.9% week-over-week and settled at $2.24 per gallon for the week ending October 3, 2016.
Will Crude Oil Prices Test $60 per Barrel?
Brent crude oil prices could trade between $35 and $40 per barrel in 2016 due to a stronger dollar, oversupply, and near-record US crude oil inventories.
Natural Gas Prices Slump due to Increasing Inventory Data
Natural gas futures for July delivery slumped by 4.95% on Thursday. Natural gas prices declined due to rising inventory data. It continued its losing streak.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Fell for 4th Straight Week
Last week, Baker Hughes reported that the US crude oil rig count fell by one rig to 515 rigs for the week ending January 15, 2016.
Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Positions on US Crude Oil Contracts
Hedge funds reduced their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options contracts for the second straight week in the week ending September 6, 2016.
Hot Summer Weather Forecast Sends Natural Gas Prices Higher
Natural gas futures contracts for August delivery rose by 1.5% and settled at $2.69 per MMBtu on July 21. Prices rose due to the hot summer weather forecast.
Why Did Crude Oil and US Diesel Futures Diverge?
The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices rose 0.8% to $2.54 per gallon for the week ending December 26, 2016—compared to the previous week.
US Crude Oil Rigs Are near a 4-Week Low
Baker Hughes reported that US crude oil rigs declined by seven to 797 on March 23–29, 2018. The rigs are near a four-week low.
How Did WTI and Brent Crude Oil Prices React to IEA Report?
April WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) rose by 1.7% and settled at $38.5 per barrel on March 11, 2016.
Cushing Crude Inventories Could Boost Crude Oil Prices
Cushing crude oil inventories fell by 276,000 barrels from September 16–23, 2016. A decrease in crude oil inventories at Cushing will support crude oil prices.
US Dollar Near 13-Month Low: Can It Drive Crude Oil Futures?
The US Dollar Index fell 0.50% to 92.7 on July 31, 2017. It’s the lowest level in the last 13 months.
Gasoline Stocks Fell due to Rise in Demand
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 245.1 MMbbls for the week ending March 18, 2016.
Rise in US Crude Oil Inventories Pressures Crude Oil Futures
According to the EIA, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 420.2 MMbbls on January 26–February 2, 2018.
EIA and API Crude Oil Inventories Will Benefit Crude Oil Prices
The API released its weekly crude oil inventories report on July 6. US crude oil inventories fell by 6.7 MMbbls for the week ending July 1, 2016.
Crude Oil Prices Fall Due to Possible Panic Selling
NYMEX-traded WTI crude oil futures contracts for September delivery fell by 2.47% and settled at $42.23 per barrel on Thursday, August 13, 2015.
Are US Crude Oil Inventories Bullish or Bearish for Oil Prices?
The EIA estimated that US crude oil inventories averaged ~488.4 MMbbls in 2016. They’re expected to average 469.2 MMbbls in 2017.
Crude Oil Futures Hit Multi-Month Highs but S&P 500 Falls
November US crude oil (DBO)(DWT)(SCO) futures contracts rose 3% to $52.22 per barrel on September 25—the highest level since April 2017.
US Crude Oil Inventories Supported Crude Oil Prices
A Platts survey estimated that US crude oil inventories fell by 200,000 barrels from August 5–12. A larger fall in crude oil inventories supported crude oil prices.
Crude Oil Traders Are Closely Watching These Bearish Drivers
In the previous two parts of this series, we covered bullish drivers for crude oil prices. Now let’s look at some key bearish drivers for crude oil prices in 2016.
Crude Oil Market: Will Bullish Oil Traders Control 2017?
January WTI crude oil futures fell for the third straight day yesterday. Prices fell below the key psychological levels of $42 per barrel on November 30.
Will 2017 or 2018 Mark the Return of the Bulls?
The EIA published its monthly STEO report on January 12, 2016. The global crude oil production will rise to 95.9 MMbpd in 2016 and 96.7 MMbpd in 2017.
Commodities and the S&P 500 Moved in Opposite Directions
The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.1% of the S&P 500 Index, fell ~1.1% on April 27. XLE fell ~1.1% to $73.83 on April 27.
Natural Gas Prices Could Trade within an Uptrend Channel
A symmetrical triangle could swing natural gas prices in either direction. Bears could see the key support at $2.50 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark in April.
Why Does Goldman Sachs Think Crude Oil Prices Will Rise More?
Goldman Sachs (GS) expects successful implementation of OPEC’s plan to reduce crude oil production to result in a further increase in crude oil prices.