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Will the ResVax Vaccine Be Key Revenue Driver for Novavax?

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May. 6 2019, Published 3:33 p.m. ET

Resvax vaccine updates

On February 28, Novavax (NVAX) issued a press release announcing results from the first-ever Phase 3 trial for PrepareTM, evaluating the efficacy of the ResVax vaccine in preventing RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) disease in infants through maternal immunization. The vaccine failed to demonstrate a medically significant impact on the prevention of RSV LRTI (lower respiratory tract infection) infections, which was the primary endpoint of this trial. However, Resvax demonstrated efficacy based on the reduction in the number of hospitalizations associated with RSV LRTI infection in the first 180 days of the infant’s life, which was the secondary endpoint of the trial.

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According to the company’s first-quarter earnings conference call, Novavax has scheduled meetings with the FDA in May and June and also with regulatory agencies in four more countries to discuss the pathway for filing marketing applications for Resvax. The company plans to report the outcomes of these discussions in the third quarter.

Revenue growth estimates

Analysts expect Novavax’s revenues to change YoY by -71.96% to $9.61 million in fiscal 2019, -69.49% to $2.93 million in fiscal 2020, and 2902.89% to $88.08 million in fiscal 2021.

Analysts also expect Novavax’s revenues to change YoY by -76.39% to $2.54 million in the second quarter, -72.85% to $2.10 million in the third quarter, and -78.85% to $1.30 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019.

Reverse split

According to the company’s first-quarter earnings conference call, Novavax has decided to do a reverse split of its shares in 20:1 proportion, which is expected to raise the company’s share price above $1.0 and thereby increase the addressable investor base.

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