iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped
Latest iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped News and Updates
Jobs Report Postponed until Friday, May 8
The jobs report should have gone out last Friday. But the BLS decided to postpone it until this Friday, May 8. Unless the report is unusually good, the bond market will probably take it in stride.
The Housing Industry Is Painting a Positive Outlook for the Economy
In April, the number of building permits issued was reported at 1.35 million, a decrease of 1.8% from the downward revised March reading of 1.37 million permits.
Home Prices Hit New Records: What Does This Mean for REITs?
The recent 5.5% year-over-year gain for home prices has put the FHFA House Price Index about 3% past its April 2007 levels.
Behind Home Prices: Status Compared to Incomes
April’s 5.9% year-over-year gain for home prices has put the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) House Price Index at about 3% above its April 2007 level.
Mortgages: An Alternative outside the Stock Market
Jeffrey Gundlach thinks that in today’s environment, investors will need to find alternatives outside the stock market if they want returns.
Background on MFA Financial
As a REIT, MFA Financial must distribute 90% of its income to its shareholders, and it isn’t subject to income tax at the corporate level.
Average hourly earnings tick up along with inflation to $24.78
Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% month-over-month and 2.0% year-over-year to $24.78 an hour. Average weekly hours were flat at 34.6.
Employment Costs Rise with Healthcare Inflation
Employment costs rose 0.6% in the quarter ending March 31, 2016. Over the past 12 months, compensation costs for civilian workers have risen 1.9%.
Analyzing the Fall in December’s Existing Home Sales
According to the January report from NAR, existing home sales decreased 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million homes in December.
Introduction to the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
Homebuilders use data from the Fannie Mae survey to measure consumers’ attitudes toward future home price appreciation. This affects attitudes about risk-taking.
Why Gundlach Prefers Mortgages versus the High-Yield Market?
Gundlach prefers mortgages versus the high-yield bond market. He identifies inherent risks when investing in the high-yield market.
Why Student Debt May Not Affect the US Economy Like Sub-Prime
According to the White House Council of Economic Advisers, “Student debt is less likely to make a recession more severe or slow an expansion in the way that mortgage debt may have.”
Gundlach: Invest in Industrials, Materials, Financial Sectors
“Industrials, materials, and financials are the sectors. . .you want to be invested in,” said Jeffrey Gundlach recently in a CNBC interview.
Could New Home Sales Continue to Rise?
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development report monthly data on the number of new homes sold in the United States.
Why Existing Home Sales Have Been on a Continuous Slide
The United States National Association of Realtors (or NAR) releases a monthly report on the existing home sales (ITB) market.
What American Builders Were Worried about in June
The HMI was reported to have decreased by two points to 68 in June as compared to a May reading of 70.
Are Rising Rates Affecting Housing Markets?
Rising interest rates increase the cost of owning a home for prospective buyers, but the housing market hasn’t yet felt the impact of rate increases.
What Drove the Leading Economic Index Higher in May?
According to the June 21 Conference Board report, the May LEI was 109.5—a 0.2% increase from the revised April LEI of 109.3.
Why the Fall in April New Home Sales Isn’t a Reason to Worry
As per the recent report, new single-family homes (XHB) sold in April were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 662,000 units.
Why Existing Home Sales Continued Their Decline in April
The US National Association of Realtors (or NAR) releases a monthly report on the existing home sales (ITB) market.
Should Housing Investors Worry about Declining Building Permits?
An increase in the number of building permits in any given month is a signal for increased activity in the housing sector (DHI) in the future.
Why American Builders Remain Confident about the Housing Industry
The housing market index was reported to have increased by two points to 70 in May compared to the downwardly revised April reading of 68.
Why Drove the Leading Economic Index Higher in April?
The latest Conference Board LEI reading was released on May 17. The LEI for April came in at 109.4, an increase of 0.4% from the March reading of 109.0.
Here Are March’s Trends in Existing Home Sales
According to the NAR’s April 2018 report, existing home sales rose 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.6 million homes in March.
What to Make of the March Increase in Building Permits Issued
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development report monthly data on building permits issued in the United States.
Why American Builders’ Confidence Fell 1 Point in March
The HMI (housing market index) was reported to have decreased by one point to 69 in April 2018.
What to Make of the Drop in Building Permits Issued in February
The decrease in building permits spanned across the sectors in February.
How Confident Are American Builders?
The March housing market index reading is at 70, a one-point decline from the revised February reading of 71.
Why the Rebound in Building Permits Is Positive for the US Economy
The Conference Board uses the number of building permits issued as one of the key constituents of its LEI (Leading Economic Index) model.
Why Declining Existing Home Sales Are Considered a Positive Sign
The United States National Association of Realtors (or NAR) releases a monthly report on existing home sales (ITB).
Why American Homebuilders Are Confident about Industry
February’s HMI reading was reported at 72, unchanged from the January reading and two points below the 18-year peak reported in December.
Why Building Permits Didn’t Change in December
For 2017, 1,263,400 housing units have been authorized by building permits—a 4.7% increase from 1,206,600 housing units in 2016.
How Confident Are Homebuilders at the Beginning of 2018?
Comments from NAHB members indicated that homebuilders are optimistic about the future demand and projected increased activity in the housing sector.
Existing Home Sales: Strongest Pace in 11 Years
According to the latest report from NAR, existing home sales rose 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million homes in November.
Housing Market: Builders’ Confidence Reaches an 18-Year High
For November, the NAHB Housing Market Index was reported as 74—an increase of five from October and an 18-year high.
Should Investors Be Concerned about Fewer Building Permits?
In November 2017, housing units (XHB) authorized by building permits were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.298 million—a decrease of 1.4% from October.
Households Think It’s a Good Time to Buy a Home
According to the latest report from NAR, existing home sales have risen 2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million in October.
Housing Market: What a Rise in Building Permits Signals
In October 2017, building permits were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.297 million—an increase of 5.9% from the reading of 1.225 million in September.
Is the Drop in September Building Permits Cause for Concern?
In September 2017, building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.215 million—a fall from August’s 1.272 million and 4.3% below September 2016.
How Has the US Economy Fared since the Last FOMC Meeting?
Since the last FOMC meeting in July, economic conditions in the US have continued to improve.
Why Improving Economic Conditions Aren’t Enough for the FED
In the last few months, the performance of the US economy has been impressive. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in August.
REITs Explained: Qualifications and Types of REITs
To qualify as a REIT, a company must have most of its assets and income tied to real estate investment and must pay out almost all of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends. In the U.S., a REIT must meet the following four requirements. The REIT must distribute at least 90% […]
REIT Explained: Qualifications and Types of REITs
Let’s talk about the two main types of REITs (ICF)—equity REITs and mortgage REITs.
Ginnie Mae TBAs Rise with the Bond Market
The ten-year bond yield fell by 8 basis points to 1.51% for the week ending August 12, 2016. Ginnie Mae TBAs rose by 4 ticks and closed at 104 28/32.
Mortgage Rates Didn’t Move despite a Volatile Bond Market
Lately, mortgage rates and bond yields have shown a weak correlation. Treasury yields have fallen in the past month, while mortgage rates have been steady.
The Employment Cost Index Was Flat in 2Q16
Employment costs rose 0.6% in the quarter ending June 30, 2016. Over the past 12 months, compensation costs for civilian workers have risen 2.3%.
What’s Annaly Capital’s Take on the Bond Market’s Volatility?
Annaly positioned itself to reduce its interest rate risk and increase its credit risk. Since 2009, global bond markets have risen in value by about $17 trillion.
How’s Annaly Capitalizing on Commercial Real Estate?
By investing in commercial real estate, Annaly Capital is increasing its returns. At the same time, it’s taking on credit risk.
Mortgage Rates Rise despite a Big Bond Market Rally
Mortgage rates and bond yields have shown a weak correlation. Treasury yields have fallen over the past month, while mortgage rates have been steady.
Real Estate Market Hot in the West, Cold in the Northeast
Home prices in the Pacific and Mountain states have outperformed prices in the rest of the country over the past two years.
Home Prices Are Almost 4% above the Bubble Peak
May’s 5.6% year-over-year gain in home prices has put the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) House Price Index at about 4% above its April 2007 level.
Why Are State Foreclosure Laws Important?
There are two basic types of state foreclosure laws—judicial and non-judicial. In non-judicial states, foreclosures are handled through a streamlined process.
How Much Did Mortgage Refinance Applications Fall Last Week?
Mortgage refinance applications, as measured by the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Refinance Index, fell last week. Since mid-2013, refinances have been dropping dramatically.
Mortgage Applications Fell on the Brexit Vote
Mortgage applications fell 2.6% last week after rising 2.9% the week before. Rates were increasing for most of the week, only to fall on Friday on the Brexit vote.
The Impact of an Interest Rate Hike on Different Industries
Since insurance companies are highly dependent on their ability to generate interest income, rising interest rates can significantly boost profits.
The Case-Shiller Index Is 10% below Its 2006 Peak
In April, the Case-Shiller Index rose by 1% month-over-month. It’s up by 5.4% YoY. Prices are still about 10% below the peak set in the summer of 2006.
Why Did Bonds Rally on Brexit?
After closing the prior week at 1.6%, bond yields, as tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), fell by 5 basis points to 1.6% last week.
Why Is the Median Income to Median Home Price Ratio Elevated?
The recent 5.5% year-over-year gain for home prices has put the FHFA House Price Index about 3% above its April 2007 level.
Home Prices Dropped in a Quarter of States in 1Q16
From March 2015 to March 2016, the Pacific states took the lead with home price appreciation of 9.5%, followed by the Mountain states with a gain of 8.5%.
Bonds Get Slammed on FOMC Minutes
On May 18, 2016, the Fed released its minutes from the April FOMC meeting. In this series, we’ll take an in-depth look at those minutes and their implications for investors.
Why States Affect the Valuation of Mortgage Servicing Rights
State laws affect the value of mortgage servicing rights. Typically, the rights in states like New York and New Jersey trade at a 25% discount to other states.
Home Prices Are at Record Levels According to the FHFA
The recent 6% year-over-year gain for house prices put the FHFA House Price Index about 2% past its April 2007 levels. Prices are nearly back to their prior peak.
How Home Price Appreciation Is Driving Consumption
The recent 5.9% year-over-year gain for house prices has put the FHFA1 House Price Index about 1% past its April 2007 levels.
How Would Negative Interest Rates Impact REITs?
A fall in interest rates makes REITs more attractive dividend-yielding investments compared to bonds. This is because REITs have been traditionally viewed as dividend-yielding investments.
House Prices Eclipse Their Bubble Peak of April 2007
The recent 5.9% year-over-year gain for house prices put the FHFA House Price Index ~1% past its April 2007 levels. Prices are nearly back to their prior peak.
Why Barbara Corcoran Credits Donald Trump for Changing Manhattan
In an interview with Wall Street Week, Corcoran was asked about her views on Trump. According to Corcoran, Trump is “due the credit of changing the view of Manhattan to the view of luxury Manhattan.”
Corcoran and Cisneros’s Housing Market Talk Merits a Closer Look
In an interview with Wall Street Week, Shark Tank’s Barbara Corcoran and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros shared their views on the housing market.
Home Prices Are Nearly Back to Their Prior Peak Levels
Many homeowners hold 2006-vintage and 2007-vintage MBS that have high coupons and low prepayment rates. As home prices appreciate, these loans will pay off.
Home Prices Near Peak Levels: Good News for the Middle Class?
The recent 5.8% year-over-year gain for home prices has put the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) House Price Index back at April 2007 levels.
Why Home Price Appreciation Differs from State to State
In the judicial states, particularly New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, we’re seeing much lower home price appreciation.
Labor Force Participation Rate Drops Again
In September, the labor force participation rate slid to 62.4%, its lowest point since 1977. The labor force declined from 157.1 million to 156.7 million, while the population increased from 251.1 million to 251.3 million.
Home Prices Now 1.6% from April 2007 Peak Levels
The recent 5.4% YoY gain for home prices has put the FHFA House Price Index back at June 2006 levels. The rate of price appreciation appears to be slowing.
Employment Cost Index Falls
The employment cost index increased 0.2% in the quarter ending June 30, 2015. This was a small increase from the fourth quarter of 2014.
The July Unemployment Rate Stays at 5.3%
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3% in July, or about 8.3 million people. The underemployment rate slipped 10.4%, and the labor force increased by about 69,000 people.
Comments from the Annaly 2Q15 Conference Call
The outlook for interest rates is probably going to be volatile. Agency REITs like Annaly Capital Management are most exposed to a churning bond market.
What Differentiates MFA Financial from Other Mortgage REITs?
MFA Financial has been increasing its book of non-performing and re-performing MBS and, as a result, it’s much better positioned for a rising interest rate environment.
MFA Financial Reports a 2Q15 Fall in Book Value per Share
MFA Financial’s (MFA) book value per share fell from $8.13 in the first quarter of 2015 to $7.96 in the second quarter.
Ginnie Mae TBAs Almost Unchanged Last Week: Implications for REITs
Like the Fannie Mae TBAs, the Ginnie Mae TBAs were more or less “unch’d” (unchanged) for the week.
Risk On, Risk Off: The US Bond Market Reacts to Overseas Events
The basis for numerous long-term interest rates Ten-year bond yields influence everything from mortgage rates to corporate debt. They’re now the benchmark for long-term US interest rates. Some of you might remember when the 30-year bond was the benchmark, but that changed in the 1990s. When investors want to know what’s going on in the bond market, […]
Fannie Mae TBAs Almost Unchanged Last Week: Implications for REITs
Fannie Mae TBAs started the week at 102 26/32 and gave up 2 ticks to go out at 102 3/4 even. The ten-year bond yield rose by 2 basis points.
Mortgage Rates Fell Last Week as the Bond Market Sold Off
Last week, mortgage rates fell even though the bond market fell. This was because rates rose a few basis points too high…
Last Week in Review: Endgame in Greece and the Chinese Sell-Off
The meltdown in Chinese stocks was probably more significant. However, the situation in Greece dominated the headlines.
The Labor Force Participation Rate Hits a Multi-Decade Low
Since the Great Recession, the labor force participation rate has declined. It’s back to levels we haven’t seen since the late 1970s.
The Unemployment Rate Falls as the Labor Force Shrinks
The unemployment rate ticked down 0.2% to 5.3% in June, or ~8.3 million people. The underemployment rate includes discouraged workers—people who want to work, but who have given up looking.
Fannie Mae Rises by 3/4 of a Point on To-Be-Announced Market
The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product they can trade. Fannie Mae TBAs rose by 3/4 of a point to go out at 103 14/32.
Mortgage Refinances Are Hit by Prepayment Burnout
Refinancing activity affects prepayment speeds. Prepayment speeds occur because homeowners are allowed to pay off their mortgages early and without penalty.
Mortgage Rates Rise as Bond Market Sells Off
Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market. The Fed’s plan to help housing began when it pushed rates lower to allow people to refinance.
Ginnie Mae Securities Underperform Fannies Again
The ten-year bond yield rose 7 basis points last week. Ginnie Mae TBAs gave up 20 ticks, while Fannie Mae TBAs only gave up 14 ticks.
REIT Outlook: Fannie Mae Securities Close at 104 1/32
Fannie Mae TBAs started the week at 104 15/32 and gave up 7/16 to close at 104 1/32. The ten-year bond yield increased by 7 basis points.
Fannie Mae TBAs Ignore the Turmoil in the Bond Market
When TBAs rally, it means capital gains for mortgage REITs. These gains increase TBA returns, especially when added to their interest income.
Highlights of the Asset Side of Annaly’s 1Q15 Balance Sheet
Agency mortgage-backed securities and the new Agency Credit Risk transfer bonds accounted for $70.5 billion of Annaly’s $78.7 billion in assets.
The Week Ahead: Quiet until Industrial Data Release on May 15
The week after the jobs report is usually quiet in terms of economic releases, although we will have some important industrial data on Friday.
Home Prices are Within 3% of Peak Levels
As home prices rise, previously underwater homeowners gain the ability to refinance. This increases prepayment speeds.
The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Looms Large This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. It will be the last FOMC meeting before we start worrying about rate hikes.
Fannie Mae TBAs Rally with the Bond Market
When TBAs rally, it means capital gains for mortgage REITs. These gains increase TBAs’ returns, especially when added to their interest income.
Ginnie Mae TBAs Underperform Fannie Mae TBAs Again
The ten-year bond yield decreased 18 basis points, with yields decreasing from 1.11% to 1.93%. Ginnie Mae TBAs picked up 18 ticks.
Rate Hike to Come? Investors Focus on the Fed’s ‘Patient’ Message
The FOMC meets this Tuesday and Wednesday, and the entire market is focusing on one word: “patient.”
Why Ginnie Mae TBAs Outperformed Fannies Again
This is the third time Ginnie Mae TBAs have outperformed Fannie Mae TBAs since the FHFA decreased the monthly mortgage insurance premium for FHA borrowers.
Unemployment falls, but will the yield curve flatten?
A person’s perception of the economy’s health is driven first and foremost by where unemployment stands.A person’s perception of the economy’s health is driven first and foremost by where unemployment stands.
Why the Employment Situation Report is an important investor tool
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out the “Employment Situation Report.” It contains all sorts of important data points.