First Trust Natural Gas ETF

As of August 2, 2017, Devon Energy (DVN) had an implied volatility of ~40.7%, which is lower than its implied volatility of ~33.6% on July 25, 2017.

On June 8, 2017, US natural gas (GASL) (GASX) (FCG) active futures had an implied volatility of 36%—up 3.8% compared to the 15-day average.

PointLogic reported that natural gas supplies fell by 1.1% to 79.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day for the week ending June 29, 2016, compared to the previous week.

For 2Q17, Denbury Resources’ continuing production averaged 59.8 Mboepd, which is ~5% lower than its 2Q16 continuing production of ~63.0 Mboepd.

As of March 28, 2016, about 55% of Wall Street analysts rated Range Resources (RRC) as a “buy” and ~40% of analysts rated it as a “hold.”

Natural gas futures contracts for August delivery rose by 1.5% and settled at $2.69 per MMBtu on July 21. Prices rose due to the hot summer weather forecast.

For 3Q17, Southwestern Energy (SWN) reported revenues of ~$737 million—higher than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$777 million.

Year-to-date, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) has been the fifth-weakest energy stock from the US oil and gas production sector.

In 1Q17, the stock of Appalachian natural gas (UNG) producer Southwestern Energy (SWN) underperformed natural gas, falling from $10.82 to $8.17.

On July 20, 2017, natural gas active futures’ implied volatility was 32.3%, which was 3% below their 15-day moving average.

Between June 13 and June 20, our equally weighted basket of natural gas–weighted stocks rose 4.6%—compared to a 6.2% rise in natural gas for the same period.

For 2Q17, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) reported revenues of ~$14.0 million, which was lower than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$34.0 million.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 74 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,189 Bcf on April 14–21. Inventories rose 3.5% week-over-week.

On April 5, 2017, active natural gas (UNG) (FCG) (BOIL) (GASL) futures were trading at a premium of $0.33 to futures contracts 12 months forward.

Between May 15 and May 22, 2017, natural gas June futures fell 0.6%. During that same period, an equally weighted selection of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 1.5%.

PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production rose 0.3% to 80.1 Bcf per day on April 5-11, 2018.

On November 16, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas was 44%—6.4% above its 15-day average.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US natural gas production averaged 78.9 Bcf per day in July 2016.

On November 2, 2017, natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) implied volatility was 38.2%, 1.8% below its 15-day average.

US natural gas inventories are 6.9% above their five-year average. They’re also near record levels.

PointLogic reported that US natural gas supplies were flat at 77.7 Bcf per day from September 22–28, 2016—1.4% less compared to the same period in 2015.

PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption dropped ~1.4% to 56.7 Bcf per day on May 17–23.

In the week ended October 6, natural gas inventories rose by 87 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,595 Bcf—13 Bcf more than the market expected inventories to rise.

Since 2008, the natural gas rig count has fallen ~89% from its record high. But the fall was unable to stop the rise in natural gas supplies.

Between October 27 and November 3, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose just 0.2%, and natural gas December futures rose 0.7%.

From March 2, 2017, to March 9, 2017, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 5.7%. Natural gas futures rose 6.1% during the same period.

US natural gas futures increased 1.3% to $2.81 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on July 26–August 2.

At a broader level, 72.7% of the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg rate Breitburn Energy a “hold,” 9.1% rate it a “buy,” and the remaining ~18.2% rate it a “sell.”

On August 3, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 30%—5.1% below its 15-day moving average.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low. From March 3, 2016, to March 13, 2017, natural gas rose 85.4% on a closing price basis.

On September 21, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.1%, or 5.1% above the 15-day average.

Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.

Between March 20, 2017, and March 27, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for May 2017 rose 1%. The commodity saw the small gain due to slightly bullish inventory data.

US natural gas prices tested the intraday high of $2.03 per MMBtu on Thursday, March 31, 2016. This is the highest level since February 2016.

On August 31, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) active futures’ implied volatility was 32%, which was 4.9% above its 15-day moving average.

PointLogic reported that US natural gas supplies rose 0.5% to 77.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from November 10–16, 2016.

Futures spread On September 27, 2017, natural gas (FCG) (GASL) (BOIL) 2018 November futures traded $0.04 lower than November 2017 futures. That is, the futures spread was at a discount of $0.04. On September 20, 2017, the futures spread was at a discount of $0.10. Between September 20 and 27, 2017, natural gas November futures […]

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu this winter from November 2016 to March 2017.

In the week starting March 5, 2018, California Resources (CRC) fell from $14.98 to $14.65, a decrease of ~6.1%.

As of May 11, 2017, June natural gas futures are above their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.

Oil and gas producers’ earnings such as Swift Energy, ConocoPhillips, and Continental Resources will depend on crude oil and natural gas prices.

For the week ending July 22, September natural gas futures (UNG) (FCG) (GASX) (DGAZ) (BOIL) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) rose by 0.61% in the week.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3, 2016, to February 13, 2017, natural gas rose 79.3%.

Natural gas’s (UNG) (BOIL) (FCG) (GASL) implied volatility was 39.4% on March 3, 2017, 0.3% below its 15-day average.

As of May 27, 2016, Range Resource’s dividend yield, which measures the amount of cash flow an investor can get for each dollar invested in an equity position, stood at ~0.34%.

Donald Trump supports increasing production of fossil fuels like coal, crude oil, and natural gas. It could support employment and benefit the economy.

Implied volatility On December 21, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 42.4%. In the last trading session, their implied volatility was on par with the 15-day average. Supply-glut concerns pushed natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures to a 17-year low on March 3, 2016, with an implied volatility of 53.8%. From this multiyear low, natural gas prices […]

Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.1% to 190,432 on June 5–12.

The EIA estimated that US-marketed natural gas production fell by 0.63 Bcf per day to 75.93 Bcf per day in October—compared to the previous month.

On November 30, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 44.3%, about 1% above its 15-day average.

Hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options contracts to a nine-week low for the week ending November 8, 2016.

For the week ending February 10, US natural gas inventories are 11% lower than the same period in 2016. Falling inventories will support natural gas prices.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 62 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,343 Bcf between April 20 and April 27.

On September 20, 2017, natural gas (FCG) (BOIL) October 2018 futures closed $0.10 below its October 2017 futures.

On August 10, 2017, the implied volatility for natural gas’s (UNG) (BOIL) active futures was 30.4%, which was 0.70% below its 15-day average.

On May 3, 2017, natural gas June 2017 futures were trading at a premium of $0.33 to June 2018 futures contracts.

Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.9% to 186,799 on June 12–19.

UNG ended May 4, 2017, with a drop of ~0.50%, while natural gas futures fell 1.3%.

From April 6 to April 13, 2017, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which aims to track active natural gas futures, fell 2%.

On June 21, the EIA released its natural gas storage report. It reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,004 Bcf from June 8 to 15.

Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.

PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US natural gas consumption increased ~4% to 57.5 Bcf per day on May 10–16.

In the past five trading sessions, natural gas April futures have risen 1%, closing at ~$3.01 per MMBtu on March 22, 2017—2.7% lower than the prior session.

From March 9, 2017, to March 16, 2017, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 2.2%. Natural gas futures fell 2.4% during the same period.

US natural gas futures increased 3.2% on May 3–10. Natural gas prices increased due to a lower increase in natural gas inventories.

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) this winter.

The EIA released its monthly STEO report on October 13. It expects US natural gas prices to average $2.51 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.07 per MMBtu in 2017.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 43 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 1.4% to 3,125 Bcf on August 11–18, 2017.

US natural gas futures increased 6.1% on April 19–26. Prices increased due to the larger-than-expected decline in natural gas inventories.

Between February 10, 2017, and February 17, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for March 2017 delivery fell 6.6%.

Between April 24, 2017, and May 1, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for June 2017 rose 1.7%.

In the week ending September 1, 2017, the natural gas rig count rose by three to 183. On a YoY basis, the natural gas rig count has more than doubled.

From March 16, 2017, to March 23, 2017, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which is designed to track active natural gas futures, rose 5.7%.

Natural gas’s implied volatility was 43.4% on February 24, 2017—6.7% below its 15-day average. Its implied volatility rose to 56.2% on November 14, 2016.

In the week ending July 14, 2017, natural gas inventories rose by 28 Bcf to 2,973 Bcf. The market expected a rise of 39 Bcf for the week ending July 14.

The EIA’s STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) Report is scheduled to be released on October 10, 2017, and could impact crude oil and natural gas prices.

On January 18, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 53.9%, 10.2% above its 15-day average.

On September 29, the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) is slated to release its weekly “Commitment of Traders” report.

Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.

US natural gas inventories are 0.6% less than the five-year average. Falling natural gas inventories will support natural gas (FCG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) prices.

PointLogic reported that weekly US dry natural gas production fell 0.13% to 72 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 20–26, 2017.

On October 4, 2017, natural gas (UNG) November futures closed at $2.94 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), a rise of 1.6% from the last trading session.

US natural gas consumption fell 0.17% to 57.1 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) on October 12–18, 2017. It rose 3.1% from the same period in 2016.

On December 7, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 40.5% or ~7.5% less than its 15-day average. On November 29, the implied volatility rose to 47.7%.

In the week ended October 6, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by two to 187.

NYMEX natural gas (GASL) (DGAZ) futures contracts for July delivery rose 4.3% and settled at $3.06 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on June 15.

On August 24, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures’ implied volatility was 30.6%. The implied volatility rose 2% above its 15-day moving average.

On March 31, 2017, the natural gas (BOIL) (GASX) (FCG) (GASL) rig count was 160, a rise of five rigs over the previous week.

On December 14, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas futures was 40.4%. It was ~5.9% below its 15-day average.

On April 7, 2017, the natural gas (BOIL) (GASX) (FCG) (GASL) rig count was 165, a rise of five rigs over the previous week.

On October 12, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.9%, 1.7% above its 15-day average.

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.

PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.6% to 79.6 Bcf per day on April 12–18, 2018.

As of June 13, HighPoint Resources (HPR) had fallen ~5.7% this week, to $6.28 from $6.66, pushing HPR below its 50-day moving average.

Between November 15 and 22, natural gas (UNG)(FCG) January futures had a correlation of 52.5% with US crude oil January futures.

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices won’t exceed $4.11 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in January 2017.

In 4Q15, Range Resources (RRC) paid a dividend of $0.04 per share on its common stock.

At a broader level, 60% of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg rate Vanguard Natural Resources a “hold,” 30% rate it as a “buy,” and the remaining ~10% rate it a “sell.”

On February 22, 2017, active natural gas (UNG) (FCG) (BOIL) (GASL) futures are trading at a discount of $0.65 to the futures contracts 12 months ahead.