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US Natural Gas Price Drivers on August 6–10
US natural gas futures increased 1.3% to $2.81 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on July 26–August 2.
Smaller Build in US Natural Gas Inventories Supported Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 35 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,308 Bcf on July 20–27.
Are Hedge Funds Reducing Bullish Bets on US Natural Gas?
Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.
What’s the Forecast for Southwestern Energy Stock?
As of July 25, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~50.0%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~50.9% at the end of the second quarter of 2018.
Record US Natural Gas Production Kept a Lid on the Prices
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.5% to 81 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 19–25.
Smaller Rise in US Natural Gas Inventories Helped the Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 24 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,273 Bcf on July 13–20.
A Look at CNX Resources’ Stock Price Forecast
As of July 26, 2018, CNX Resources (CNX) had an implied volatility of ~37.2%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~39.1% at the end of Q2 2018.
How Does US Natural Gas Production Impact Prices?
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.
Decoding US Natural Gas Inventories from June 22 to 29
On July 6, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its natural gas storage report.
Analyzing Hedge Funds’ Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.9% to 186,799 on June 12–19.
This is XLE’s Strongest Energy Stock
Year-to-date, ONEOK (OKE) has been the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLE) strongest energy stock, rising ~29%.
EIA Reports Significant Build in US Natural Gas Inventories
On June 21, the EIA released its natural gas storage report. It reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,004 Bcf from June 8 to 15.
Is Southwestern Energy’s New Uptrend for Real?
For the week ended June 15, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock increased ~6.0% from $4.88 on June 8 to $5.16 on June 15.
Hedge Funds’ Net Bullish Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.1% to 190,432 on June 5–12.
EIA Upgrades US Natural Gas Production Forecasts for 2018, 2019
Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.
Upstream Losses: HPR, CRC, XOG, SRCI, and DNR
As of June 13, HighPoint Resources (HPR) had fallen ~5.7% this week, to $6.28 from $6.66, pushing HPR below its 50-day moving average.
US Natural Gas Inventories: Lowest since 2014 This Time of Year
On June 7, the EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose 92 Bcf to 1,817 Bcf from May 25 to June 1.
Could Southwestern Energy Be Following a New Uptrend?
In the last week (May 29–June 4), Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock has risen ~7%.
Southwestern Energy’s Trading Range Forecast for the Next 7 Days
As of May 25, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of 54.2%, which is lower than 62.2% at the end of Q1 2018.
How Is the Energy Sector Performing in 2018?
Crude oil prices have been rising since June 2017 and are up ~76% since then.
Analyzing US Natural Gas Consumption Trends
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption dropped ~1.4% to 56.7 Bcf per day on May 17–23.
Largest Injection in US Natural Gas Inventories since 2015
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,629 Bcf on May 11–18.
Southwestern Energy’s Possible Trading Range Forecast for Next Week
On May 21, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~49.7%, lower than its implied volatility of ~62.2% at the end of the first quarter.
Is a Trend Change in the Offing for Southwestern Energy?
Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock rose 7% from $4.42 on May 14 to $4.73 on May 21.
Upstream Losses: CXO, CDEV, CPE, RSPP, and MTDR
In the week starting on May 14, Concho Resources (CXO) decreased from $152.70 to $149.33—a decrease of more than 2.2%.
Is US Natural Gas Consumption Trending Higher?
PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US natural gas consumption increased ~4% to 57.5 Bcf per day on May 10–16.
Largest Build in US Natural Gas Inventories since 2015
US natural gas inventories increased by 106 Bcf to 1,538 Bcf on May 4–11—the largest build in US natural gas inventories for this time of the year since 2015.
Southwestern Energy: Trading Range Forecast for Next Week
As of May 14, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of 44.3%, which is lower than 62.2% at the end of the first quarter.
Natural Gas Futures: Outlook for May 14–18
US natural gas futures increased 3.2% on May 3–10. Natural gas prices increased due to a lower increase in natural gas inventories.
US Natural Gas Inventories Push Natural Gas Prices Higher
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 89 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,432 Bcf on April 27–May 4.
What’s the Outlook for Natural Gas Futures Next Week?
Cooling demand may increase for the next two weeks, which could support natural gas prices in upcoming sessions.
Why Natural Gas Inventories Pressured Natural Gas Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 62 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,343 Bcf between April 20 and April 27.
US Natural Gas Futures: What to Expect
US natural gas futures increased 6.1% on April 19–26. Prices increased due to the larger-than-expected decline in natural gas inventories.
Drop in Natural Gas Inventories Impacted Natural Gas Futures
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,281 Bcf on April 13–20.
US Natural Gas Production Fell on April 12–18
PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.6% to 79.6 Bcf per day on April 12–18, 2018.
EIA Downgrades US Natural Gas Production Forecast for 2018
PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production rose 0.3% to 80.1 Bcf per day on April 5-11, 2018.
Larger Drop in US Natural Gas Inventories Helped Gas Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 19 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,335 Bcf on March 30–April 6, 2018.
Gulfport Energy: Poor Normalized Free Cash Flow in 2017
In 2017, Gulfport Energy reported a negative FCF of -$1.8 billion—317% higher compared to Gulfport Energy’s FCF of -$420 million in 2016.
Could the Decline in Southwestern Energy Stock Continue?
In the last one-week period, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock fell more than 8.0% from $4.47 on March 26 to $4.10 on April 2.
Upstream Losses: SN, TELL, BBG, EPE, and EXXI
In the week starting on March 26, 2018, Sanchez Energy (SN) decreased from $3.31 to $3.11—a decrease of more than 6.0%.
Forecasting Southwestern Energy’s Stock Price
As of March 23, 2018, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had implied volatility of ~66.1%, higher than its volatility of ~58.2% at the end of 4Q17.
Did Cabot Oil & Gas’s Normalized Free Cash Flows Rise in 2017?
For 2017, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) has normalized FCF (free cash flow) of ~15%, which is the fourth highest among the upstream producers we have been tracking.
Upstream Losses: NOG, TELL, GPOR, EPE, and REN
In the week starting on March 19, 2018, Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) decreased from $2.09 to $1.86—a significant decrease of ~11.0%.
Where Range Resources Stock Could Settle This Week
As of March 9, 2018, Range Resources had an implied volatility of ~47.3%—higher than its implied volatility of ~40.7% on December 29, 2017.
Will Range Resources Stock Start a New Uptrend?
For the week ending March 9, 2018, Range Resources (RRC) stock rose more than 7% or from $14.65 to $15.74.
These Stocks Are the Upstream Losers So Far This Week
In the week starting March 5, 2018, California Resources (CRC) fell from $14.98 to $14.65, a decrease of ~6.1%.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds’ net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options contracts dropped 25% to 88,763 on February 13–20, 2018.
US Natural Gas Inventories: Largest Weekly Withdrawal since 2014
US natural gas inventories declined by 194 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,884 Bcf on February 2–9, 2018, according to the EIA.
Where Could Natural Gas Prices Close Next Week?
On January 25, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was at 54.8%, 8% above its 15-day average.
Does Natural Gas’s Rise Depend on Crude Oil?
Between January 16 and January 23, 2018, natural gas (GASL) (UNG) (FCG) had a correlation of 84.6% with US crude oil (OIIL) (USL) (DBO) active futures.
How Natural Gas ETFs Performed Last Week
Between January 12 and January 19, 2018, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), an ETF that has exposure to natural gas futures, fell 1.7%.
Why US Natural Gas Traders Are Tracking OPEC’s Production
Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.
What to Expect from Natural Gas Next Week
On January 18, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 53.9%, 10.2% above its 15-day average.
Natural Gas Market Could Be Pricing In a Supply Deficit
On January 16, 2018, the gap between natural gas’s February 2018 futures and February 2019 futures was $0.07, or the futures spread.
How Natural Gas ETFs Are Reacting to Spike in Natural Gas
Between January 5 and January 12, 2018, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which holds positions in active natural gas futures, gained 14.5%.
Is $3.30 Possible for Natural Gas Next Week?
On January 11, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 49.1%. That’s 7% above its 15-day average.
Possible Downside in Natural Gas Next Week
On December 21, 2017, natural gas prices closed at the lowest closing level since February 23, 2017. Since that day, natural gas futures have risen 11.1%.
Natural Gas ETFs to Watch in 2018
On December 29, 2017, the closing prices of natural gas futures contracts between March 2018 and May 2018 were progressively lower.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Start 2018 on a Positive Note?
February US natural gas (UNG) futures contracts were above their 20-day moving averages on December 29, 2017.
How Has SWN Performed?
Southwestern Energy Company’s (SWN) operating revenue fell 22% in 2016 before gaining 37% in the first nine months of 2017 (or 9M17).
Natural Gas Returns and Natural Gas ETFs
From December 15–22, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) rose 0.6%.
Could Natural Gas Reach a New 2017 Low Next Week?
Implied volatility On December 21, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 42.4%. In the last trading session, their implied volatility was on par with the 15-day average. Supply-glut concerns pushed natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures to a 17-year low on March 3, 2016, with an implied volatility of 53.8%. From this multiyear low, natural gas prices […]
Is Gulfport Energy’s Normalized Free Cash Flow Trending Up?
For 9M17 (the first nine months of 2017), Gulfport Energy (GPOR) had normalized FCF (free cash flow) of -336%, the fourth lowest among the upstream producers we have been tracking.
Why EQT’s Normalized Free Cash Flow Is Improving
As we saw in part one of this series, EQT (EQT) had normalized free cash flows of ~5% in the first nine months of 2017, the fifth highest among crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) (UGAZ) producers we have been tracking.
Natural Gas: Have Oversupply Concerns Eased?
On December 19, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL)(FCG) January 2018 futures closed $0.31 below its January 2019 futures.
Are Natural Gas ETFs Outperforming the Natural Gas Fall?
Between December 8 and December 15, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)—which invests in natural gas near-month futures contracts—fell 5.6%.
Could Natural Gas Hit a New 2017 Low Next Week?
On December 14, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas futures was 40.4%. It was ~5.9% below its 15-day average.
Natural Gas: Fall Impacts Natural Gas ETFs
On December 1–8, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), which holds near-month natural gas futures contracts, fell 9.3%.
Possibilities for Natural Gas Prices Next Week
On December 7, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 40.5% or ~7.5% less than its 15-day average. On November 29, the implied volatility rose to 47.7%.
Rise in Natural Gas Impacts Natural Gas ETFs
On November 24–December 1, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), that follows near-month natural gas futures contracts, rose 4.5%.
Can Natural Gas Stay above $3 Next Week?
On November 30, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 44.3%, about 1% above its 15-day average.
How Are Natural Gas ETFs Adjusting to Fall in Natural Gas Prices?
Between November 17 and November 24, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 8.8%.
Analyzing the Downside for Natural Gas Next Week
On November 24–30, natural gas active futures could close between $2.89 and $3.23 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) with a probability 68%.
US Natural Gas Inventories Have Fallen 8% from Last Year
The EIA estimated that US natural gas inventories fell by 46 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 1.2% to 3,726 Bcf on November 10–17, 2017.
How Closely Is Natural Gas Tracking Oil?
Between November 15 and 22, natural gas (UNG)(FCG) January futures had a correlation of 52.5% with US crude oil January futures.
Will the Oil Rig Count Increase Natural Gas Downside Risk?
Since 2008, the natural gas rig count has fallen ~89% from its record high. But the fall was unable to stop the rise in natural gas supplies.
Are Natural Gas ETFs Doing Any Better than Natural Gas?
Between November 10 and November 17, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 3.2% while natural gas active futures fell 3.6%.
How Much Natural Gas Could Fall Next Week
On November 16, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas was 44%—6.4% above its 15-day average.
Your Upstream Losers This Week: EXXI, REN, EPE, CPE, and UNT
So far this week (as of Tuesday, November 14), Energy XXI Gulf Coast (EXXI) has fallen from last week’s close of $8.83 to $5.49—a significant fall of ~38%.
Did Natural Gas ETFs Outperform Natural Gas Last Week?
Between November 3 and November 10, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose 8%, only 30 basis points above the gain in natural gas December futures.
Natural Gas Could Reach the $3.4 Mark Next Week
On November 9, 2017, natural gas had an implied volatility of 43.5%—9.4% more than its 15-day average. Natural gas active futures settled at $3.2 per MMBtu.
Upstream Losers this Week: COG, SRCI, HK, AREX, and BBG
Having looked at the percentage gainers, we’ll now move on to the percentage losers from the oil and gas production—or upstream—sector in the United States this week.
How Natural Gas ETFs Fared Last Week
Between October 27 and November 3, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose just 0.2%, and natural gas December futures rose 0.7%.
US Natural Gas Inventories Could Help Natural Gas Futures
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 65 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,775 Bcf on October 20–27, 2017.
Will Natural Gas Prices Fall to $2.8 Next Week?
On November 2, 2017, natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) implied volatility was 38.2%, 1.8% below its 15-day average.
Natural Gas versus Natural Gas ETFs Last Week
On October 20–27, natural gas (FCG) (GASL) (GASX) December futures fell 4.8%. During this period, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 4.1%.
Will Natural Gas Remain above $3 Next Week?
On October 26, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL) futures’ implied volatility was at 38.3%—3.4% above the 15-day average.
How Is US Natural Gas Production and Consumption Trending?
PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.6 Bcf per day between October 19 and October 25, 2017.
Where Natural Gas ETFs Stood next to Natural Gas Last Week
Between October 13 and October 20, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 2.2%, and natural gas November futures fell 2.8%.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Help the Prices
US natural gas consumption fell 0.17% to 57.1 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) on October 12–18, 2017. It rose 3.1% from the same period in 2016.
Will Natural Gas Fall to $2.7 Levels Next Week?
On October 19, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 38.8%, 9.6% above its 15-day average.
How the Inventory Spread Could Boost Natural Gas Prices
In the week ended October 6, natural gas inventories rose by 87 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,595 Bcf—13 Bcf more than the market expected inventories to rise.
The Smell of Natural Gas: Ripe for a Pullback?
On October 18, natural gas November futures closed at $2.85 per MMBtu (million British thermal units)—3.6% below the last trading session’s closing price.
Will Natural Gas Reclaim $3 Next Week?
On October 12, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.9%, 1.7% above its 15-day average.
Could Oil Rig Count Stop Natural Gas Fall?
In the week ended October 6, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by two to 187.
Key Energy Events for October 9–13, 2017
The EIA’s STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) Report is scheduled to be released on October 10, 2017, and could impact crude oil and natural gas prices.
Did UNG Outperform Natural Gas in the Week Ended October 6?
Between September 29 and October 6, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) fell 4.9%, while natural gas (BOIL) (GASX) November futures fell 4.8%.
Could Natural Gas Fall below the $2.8 Mark Next Week?
On October 5, 2017, the implied volatility of US natural gas active futures was at 33.1%, or 7.3% below the 15-day average.
Could La Niña Save Natural Gas Bulls?
On October 4, 2017, natural gas (UNG) November futures closed at $2.94 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), a rise of 1.6% from the last trading session.