First Trust Natural Gas ETF

PointLogic reported that natural gas supplies fell by 1.1% to 79.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day for the week ending June 29, 2016, compared to the previous week.

For 2Q17, Denbury Resources’ continuing production averaged 59.8 Mboepd, which is ~5% lower than its 2Q16 continuing production of ~63.0 Mboepd.

Between June 13 and June 20, our equally weighted basket of natural gas–weighted stocks rose 4.6%—compared to a 6.2% rise in natural gas for the same period.

On April 5, 2017, active natural gas (UNG) (FCG) (BOIL) (GASL) futures were trading at a premium of $0.33 to futures contracts 12 months forward.

Between May 15 and May 22, 2017, natural gas June futures fell 0.6%. During that same period, an equally weighted selection of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 1.5%.

On November 16, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas was 44%—6.4% above its 15-day average.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US natural gas production averaged 78.9 Bcf per day in July 2016.

On November 2, 2017, natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) implied volatility was 38.2%, 1.8% below its 15-day average.

PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption dropped ~1.4% to 56.7 Bcf per day on May 17–23.

In the week ended October 6, natural gas inventories rose by 87 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,595 Bcf—13 Bcf more than the market expected inventories to rise.

Since 2008, the natural gas rig count has fallen ~89% from its record high. But the fall was unable to stop the rise in natural gas supplies.

Between October 27 and November 3, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose just 0.2%, and natural gas December futures rose 0.7%.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low. From March 3, 2016, to March 13, 2017, natural gas rose 85.4% on a closing price basis.

On September 21, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.1%, or 5.1% above the 15-day average.

Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.

Between March 20, 2017, and March 27, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for May 2017 rose 1%. The commodity saw the small gain due to slightly bullish inventory data.

On August 31, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) active futures’ implied volatility was 32%, which was 4.9% above its 15-day moving average.

Futures spread On September 27, 2017, natural gas (FCG) (GASL) (BOIL) 2018 November futures traded $0.04 lower than November 2017 futures. That is, the futures spread was at a discount of $0.04. On September 20, 2017, the futures spread was at a discount of $0.10. Between September 20 and 27, 2017, natural gas November futures […]

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu this winter from November 2016 to March 2017.

In the week starting March 5, 2018, California Resources (CRC) fell from $14.98 to $14.65, a decrease of ~6.1%.

As of May 27, 2016, Range Resource’s dividend yield, which measures the amount of cash flow an investor can get for each dollar invested in an equity position, stood at ~0.34%.

Implied volatility On December 21, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 42.4%. In the last trading session, their implied volatility was on par with the 15-day average. Supply-glut concerns pushed natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures to a 17-year low on March 3, 2016, with an implied volatility of 53.8%. From this multiyear low, natural gas prices […]

Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.1% to 190,432 on June 5–12.

The EIA estimated that US-marketed natural gas production fell by 0.63 Bcf per day to 75.93 Bcf per day in October—compared to the previous month.

On November 30, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 44.3%, about 1% above its 15-day average.

Hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options contracts to a nine-week low for the week ending November 8, 2016.

On September 20, 2017, natural gas (FCG) (BOIL) October 2018 futures closed $0.10 below its October 2017 futures.

On May 3, 2017, natural gas June 2017 futures were trading at a premium of $0.33 to June 2018 futures contracts.

Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.9% to 186,799 on June 12–19.

UNG ended May 4, 2017, with a drop of ~0.50%, while natural gas futures fell 1.3%.

On June 21, the EIA released its natural gas storage report. It reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,004 Bcf from June 8 to 15.

Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.

In the past five trading sessions, natural gas April futures have risen 1%, closing at ~$3.01 per MMBtu on March 22, 2017—2.7% lower than the prior session.

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) this winter.

Between February 10, 2017, and February 17, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for March 2017 delivery fell 6.6%.

In the week ending September 1, 2017, the natural gas rig count rose by three to 183. On a YoY basis, the natural gas rig count has more than doubled.

From March 16, 2017, to March 23, 2017, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which is designed to track active natural gas futures, rose 5.7%.

On January 18, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 53.9%, 10.2% above its 15-day average.

On September 29, the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) is slated to release its weekly “Commitment of Traders” report.

Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.

On October 4, 2017, natural gas (UNG) November futures closed at $2.94 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), a rise of 1.6% from the last trading session.

US natural gas consumption fell 0.17% to 57.1 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) on October 12–18, 2017. It rose 3.1% from the same period in 2016.

On December 7, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 40.5% or ~7.5% less than its 15-day average. On November 29, the implied volatility rose to 47.7%.

In the week ended October 6, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by two to 187.

NYMEX natural gas (GASL) (DGAZ) futures contracts for July delivery rose 4.3% and settled at $3.06 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on June 15.

On December 14, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas futures was 40.4%. It was ~5.9% below its 15-day average.

On October 12, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.9%, 1.7% above its 15-day average.

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.

As of June 13, HighPoint Resources (HPR) had fallen ~5.7% this week, to $6.28 from $6.66, pushing HPR below its 50-day moving average.

Between November 15 and 22, natural gas (UNG)(FCG) January futures had a correlation of 52.5% with US crude oil January futures.

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices won’t exceed $4.11 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in January 2017.

US natural gas prices were on a rollercoaster ride in 2016. February 2017 natural gas futures contracts fell and closed at $3.72 per MMBtu on December 30.

On November 9, 2017, natural gas had an implied volatility of 43.5%—9.4% more than its 15-day average. Natural gas active futures settled at $3.2 per MMBtu.

For the week ending March 16, 2018, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock rose ~3% or from $4.35 to $4.46.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to December 19, 2016, natural gas rose 106.7% on a closing price basis.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 35 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,308 Bcf on July 20–27.

As of July 25, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~50.0%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~50.9% at the end of the second quarter of 2018.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.5% to 81 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 19–25.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 24 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,273 Bcf on July 13–20.

As of July 26, 2018, CNX Resources (CNX) had an implied volatility of ~37.2%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~39.1% at the end of Q2 2018.

On July 6, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its natural gas storage report.

For the week ended June 15, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock increased ~6.0% from $4.88 on June 8 to $5.16 on June 15.

On June 7, the EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose 92 Bcf to 1,817 Bcf from May 25 to June 1.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,629 Bcf on May 11–18.

In the week starting on May 14, Concho Resources (CXO) decreased from $152.70 to $149.33—a decrease of more than 2.2%.

In the week starting on March 26, 2018, Sanchez Energy (SN) decreased from $3.31 to $3.11—a decrease of more than 6.0%.

For 2017, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) has normalized FCF (free cash flow) of ~15%, which is the fourth highest among the upstream producers we have been tracking.

In the week starting on March 19, 2018, Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) decreased from $2.09 to $1.86—a significant decrease of ~11.0%.

US natural gas inventories declined by 194 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,884 Bcf on February 2–9, 2018, according to the EIA.

On January 25, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was at 54.8%, 8% above its 15-day average.

Between January 16 and January 23, 2018, natural gas (GASL) (UNG) (FCG) had a correlation of 84.6% with US crude oil (OIIL) (USL) (DBO) active futures.

Between January 12 and January 19, 2018, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), an ETF that has exposure to natural gas futures, fell 1.7%.

On January 16, 2018, the gap between natural gas’s February 2018 futures and February 2019 futures was $0.07, or the futures spread.

Between January 5 and January 12, 2018, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which holds positions in active natural gas futures, gained 14.5%.

On January 11, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 49.1%. That’s 7% above its 15-day average.

On December 21, 2017, natural gas prices closed at the lowest closing level since February 23, 2017. Since that day, natural gas futures have risen 11.1%.

On December 29, 2017, the closing prices of natural gas futures contracts between March 2018 and May 2018 were progressively lower.

Southwestern Energy Company’s (SWN) operating revenue fell 22% in 2016 before gaining 37% in the first nine months of 2017 (or 9M17).

From December 15–22, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) rose 0.6%.

For 9M17 (the first nine months of 2017), Gulfport Energy (GPOR) had normalized FCF (free cash flow) of -336%, the fourth lowest among the upstream producers we have been tracking.

As we saw in part one of this series, EQT (EQT) had normalized free cash flows of ~5% in the first nine months of 2017, the fifth highest among crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) (UGAZ) producers we have been tracking.

On December 19, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL)(FCG) January 2018 futures closed $0.31 below its January 2019 futures.

On December 1–8, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), which holds near-month natural gas futures contracts, fell 9.3%.

On November 24–December 1, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), that follows near-month natural gas futures contracts, rose 4.5%.

Between November 17 and November 24, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 8.8%.

The EIA estimated that US natural gas inventories fell by 46 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 1.2% to 3,726 Bcf on November 10–17, 2017.

Between November 10 and November 17, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 3.2% while natural gas active futures fell 3.6%.

So far this week (as of Tuesday, November 14), Energy XXI Gulf Coast (EXXI) has fallen from last week’s close of $8.83 to $5.49—a significant fall of ~38%.

Between November 3 and November 10, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose 8%, only 30 basis points above the gain in natural gas December futures.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 65 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,775 Bcf on October 20–27, 2017.

On October 20–27, natural gas (FCG) (GASL) (GASX) December futures fell 4.8%. During this period, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 4.1%.

PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.6 Bcf per day between October 19 and October 25, 2017.

Between October 13 and October 20, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 2.2%, and natural gas November futures fell 2.8%.

On October 19, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 38.8%, 9.6% above its 15-day average.

On October 18, natural gas November futures closed at $2.85 per MMBtu (million British thermal units)—3.6% below the last trading session’s closing price.

Between September 29 and October 6, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) fell 4.9%, while natural gas (BOIL) (GASX) November futures fell 4.8%.

On October 5, 2017, the implied volatility of US natural gas active futures was at 33.1%, or 7.3% below the 15-day average.

In the week starting October 2, 2017, Jones Energy (JONE) has fallen ~9.0%, from $1.92 to $1.74. It has fallen every day so far this week.

On September 22–29, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose 0.2%, while natural gas (BOIL) November futures fell 0.5%.