First Trust Natural Gas ETF

US natural gas futures increased 1.3% to $2.81 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on July 26–August 2.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 35 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,308 Bcf on July 20–27.

Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.

As of July 25, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~50.0%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~50.9% at the end of the second quarter of 2018.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.5% to 81 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 19–25.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 24 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,273 Bcf on July 13–20.

As of July 26, 2018, CNX Resources (CNX) had an implied volatility of ~37.2%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~39.1% at the end of Q2 2018.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.

On July 6, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its natural gas storage report.

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.

Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.9% to 186,799 on June 12–19.

Year-to-date, ONEOK (OKE) has been the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLE) strongest energy stock, rising ~29%.

On June 21, the EIA released its natural gas storage report. It reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,004 Bcf from June 8 to 15.

For the week ended June 15, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock increased ~6.0% from $4.88 on June 8 to $5.16 on June 15.

Hedge funds decreased their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 1.1% to 190,432 on June 5–12.

Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.

As of June 13, HighPoint Resources (HPR) had fallen ~5.7% this week, to $6.28 from $6.66, pushing HPR below its 50-day moving average.

Year-to-date, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) has been the fifth-weakest energy stock from the US oil and gas production sector.

On June 7, the EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose 92 Bcf to 1,817 Bcf from May 25 to June 1.

In the last week (May 29–June 4), Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock has risen ~7%.

As of May 25, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of 54.2%, which is lower than 62.2% at the end of Q1 2018.

Crude oil prices have been rising since June 2017 and are up ~76% since then.

PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption dropped ~1.4% to 56.7 Bcf per day on May 17–23.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,629 Bcf on May 11–18.

On May 21, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~49.7%, lower than its implied volatility of ~62.2% at the end of the first quarter.

Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock rose 7% from $4.42 on May 14 to $4.73 on May 21.

In the week starting on May 14, Concho Resources (CXO) decreased from $152.70 to $149.33—a decrease of more than 2.2%.

PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US natural gas consumption increased ~4% to 57.5 Bcf per day on May 10–16.

US natural gas inventories increased by 106 Bcf to 1,538 Bcf on May 4–11—the largest build in US natural gas inventories for this time of the year since 2015.

As of May 14, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of 44.3%, which is lower than 62.2% at the end of the first quarter.

US natural gas futures increased 3.2% on May 3–10. Natural gas prices increased due to a lower increase in natural gas inventories.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 89 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,432 Bcf on April 27–May 4.

Cooling demand may increase for the next two weeks, which could support natural gas prices in upcoming sessions.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories increased by 62 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,343 Bcf between April 20 and April 27.

US natural gas futures increased 6.1% on April 19–26. Prices increased due to the larger-than-expected decline in natural gas inventories.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,281 Bcf on April 13–20.

PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.6% to 79.6 Bcf per day on April 12–18, 2018.

PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production rose 0.3% to 80.1 Bcf per day on April 5-11, 2018.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 19 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,335 Bcf on March 30–April 6, 2018.

In 2017, Gulfport Energy reported a negative FCF of -$1.8 billion—317% higher compared to Gulfport Energy’s FCF of -$420 million in 2016.

In the last one-week period, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock fell more than 8.0% from $4.47 on March 26 to $4.10 on April 2.

In the week starting on March 26, 2018, Sanchez Energy (SN) decreased from $3.31 to $3.11—a decrease of more than 6.0%.

As of March 23, 2018, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had implied volatility of ~66.1%, higher than its volatility of ~58.2% at the end of 4Q17.

For 2017, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) has normalized FCF (free cash flow) of ~15%, which is the fourth highest among the upstream producers we have been tracking.

In the week starting on March 19, 2018, Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) decreased from $2.09 to $1.86—a significant decrease of ~11.0%.

For the week ending March 16, 2018, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock rose ~3% or from $4.35 to $4.46.

As of March 9, 2018, Range Resources had an implied volatility of ~47.3%—higher than its implied volatility of ~40.7% on December 29, 2017.

For the week ending March 9, 2018, Range Resources (RRC) stock rose more than 7% or from $14.65 to $15.74.

In the week starting March 5, 2018, California Resources (CRC) fell from $14.98 to $14.65, a decrease of ~6.1%.

US natural gas inventories declined by 194 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,884 Bcf on February 2–9, 2018, according to the EIA.

On January 25, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was at 54.8%, 8% above its 15-day average.

Between January 16 and January 23, 2018, natural gas (GASL) (UNG) (FCG) had a correlation of 84.6% with US crude oil (OIIL) (USL) (DBO) active futures.

Between January 12 and January 19, 2018, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), an ETF that has exposure to natural gas futures, fell 1.7%.

Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.

On January 18, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 53.9%, 10.2% above its 15-day average.

On January 16, 2018, the gap between natural gas’s February 2018 futures and February 2019 futures was $0.07, or the futures spread.

Between January 5 and January 12, 2018, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which holds positions in active natural gas futures, gained 14.5%.

On January 11, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 49.1%. That’s 7% above its 15-day average.

On December 21, 2017, natural gas prices closed at the lowest closing level since February 23, 2017. Since that day, natural gas futures have risen 11.1%.

On December 29, 2017, the closing prices of natural gas futures contracts between March 2018 and May 2018 were progressively lower.

February US natural gas (UNG) futures contracts were above their 20-day moving averages on December 29, 2017.

Southwestern Energy Company’s (SWN) operating revenue fell 22% in 2016 before gaining 37% in the first nine months of 2017 (or 9M17).

From December 15–22, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) rose 0.6%.

Implied volatility On December 21, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 42.4%. In the last trading session, their implied volatility was on par with the 15-day average. Supply-glut concerns pushed natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures to a 17-year low on March 3, 2016, with an implied volatility of 53.8%. From this multiyear low, natural gas prices […]

For 9M17 (the first nine months of 2017), Gulfport Energy (GPOR) had normalized FCF (free cash flow) of -336%, the fourth lowest among the upstream producers we have been tracking.

As we saw in part one of this series, EQT (EQT) had normalized free cash flows of ~5% in the first nine months of 2017, the fifth highest among crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) (UGAZ) producers we have been tracking.

On December 19, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL)(FCG) January 2018 futures closed $0.31 below its January 2019 futures.

Between December 8 and December 15, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)—which invests in natural gas near-month futures contracts—fell 5.6%.

On December 14, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas futures was 40.4%. It was ~5.9% below its 15-day average.

On December 1–8, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), which holds near-month natural gas futures contracts, fell 9.3%.

On December 7, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 40.5% or ~7.5% less than its 15-day average. On November 29, the implied volatility rose to 47.7%.

On November 24–December 1, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), that follows near-month natural gas futures contracts, rose 4.5%.

On November 30, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 44.3%, about 1% above its 15-day average.

Between November 17 and November 24, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 8.8%.

On November 24–30, natural gas active futures could close between $2.89 and $3.23 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) with a probability 68%.

The EIA estimated that US natural gas inventories fell by 46 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 1.2% to 3,726 Bcf on November 10–17, 2017.

Between November 15 and 22, natural gas (UNG)(FCG) January futures had a correlation of 52.5% with US crude oil January futures.

Since 2008, the natural gas rig count has fallen ~89% from its record high. But the fall was unable to stop the rise in natural gas supplies.

Between November 10 and November 17, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 3.2% while natural gas active futures fell 3.6%.

On November 16, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas was 44%—6.4% above its 15-day average.

So far this week (as of Tuesday, November 14), Energy XXI Gulf Coast (EXXI) has fallen from last week’s close of $8.83 to $5.49—a significant fall of ~38%.

Between November 3 and November 10, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose 8%, only 30 basis points above the gain in natural gas December futures.

On November 9, 2017, natural gas had an implied volatility of 43.5%—9.4% more than its 15-day average. Natural gas active futures settled at $3.2 per MMBtu.

Having looked at the percentage gainers, we’ll now move on to the percentage losers from the oil and gas production—or upstream—sector in the United States this week.

For 3Q17, EOG Resources (EOG) reported revenues of ~$2.65 billion, which was higher than the Wall Street analyst consensus of ~$2.59 billion.

Between October 27 and November 3, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose just 0.2%, and natural gas December futures rose 0.7%.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 65 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,775 Bcf on October 20–27, 2017.

On November 2, 2017, natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) implied volatility was 38.2%, 1.8% below its 15-day average.

For 3Q17, Southwestern Energy (SWN) reported revenues of ~$737 million—higher than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$777 million.

On October 20–27, natural gas (FCG) (GASL) (GASX) December futures fell 4.8%. During this period, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 4.1%.

On October 26, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL) futures’ implied volatility was at 38.3%—3.4% above the 15-day average.

PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.6 Bcf per day between October 19 and October 25, 2017.

Between October 13 and October 20, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 2.2%, and natural gas November futures fell 2.8%.

US natural gas consumption fell 0.17% to 57.1 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) on October 12–18, 2017. It rose 3.1% from the same period in 2016.

On October 19, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 38.8%, 9.6% above its 15-day average.

In the week ended October 6, natural gas inventories rose by 87 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,595 Bcf—13 Bcf more than the market expected inventories to rise.

On October 18, natural gas November futures closed at $2.85 per MMBtu (million British thermal units)—3.6% below the last trading session’s closing price.

On October 12, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.9%, 1.7% above its 15-day average.

In the week ended October 6, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by two to 187.

The EIA’s STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) Report is scheduled to be released on October 10, 2017, and could impact crude oil and natural gas prices.