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How Is US Natural Gas Production and Consumption Trending?

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Oct. 27 2017, Updated 10:38 a.m. ET

Weekly US natural gas production  

PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.6 Bcf per day between October 19 and October 25, 2017. Production rose 1.2% week-over-week and 4.1 Bcf per day, or 5.8%, from the same period in 2016.

Similarly, monthly US natural gas production was at a 22-month high. High natural gas production is bearish for natural gas (BOIL) (GASL) (FCG) prices, which in turn impacts energy producers (FENY) (IXC) like EQT (EQT), Antero Resources (AR), and Southwestern Energy (SWN).

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Weekly US natural gas consumption 

US natural gas consumption fell 1.4% to 56.4 Bcf per day between October 19, 2017, and October 25, 2017. It also fell 1.1% from the same period in 2016. The fall in consumption is bearish for natural gas (UGAZ) (DGAZ) (UNG) prices, which in turn is bearish for energy producers (XLE) (VDE).

EIA’s natural gas production and consumption estimates  

According to the EIA, US natural gas production will average 73.6 Bcf per day in 2017 and 78.5 Bcf per day in 2018. US production had averaged 72.9 Bcf per day in 2016, the first fall in 11 years. According to estimates, US natural gas consumption will average 73.1 Bcf per day in 2017 and 76.8 Bcf per day in 2018. Consumption had averaged 75.1 Bcf per day in 2016.

Impact 

US gas supplies could surpass consumption in 2017 and 2018. It would pressure natural gas (UNG) prices. However, a rise in exports could cap the impact of oversupply.

Next, we’ll take a look at some natural gas price forecasts.

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