VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN
Week 41: US Rail Freight Traffic Up, Canada and Mexico Slide
In the week ended October 14, US railroads’ overall freight volumes rose 3% compared with the same week in 2016. US railroads carried ~10.6 million carloads, up 3.7% for the first 41 weeks of 2017.
ConocoPhillips Is Nearing the $40 Price Level
ConocoPhillips stock is nearing its psychologically important price level of $40. It hasn’t been able to break above this level since January 5.
Behind the Natural Gas Price Forecasts for 2016 and 2017
In its March report, the EIA stated that the US natural gas supply-demand gap could average 2.89 Bcf per day in 2016 and rise to 4.05 Bcf per day in 2017.
Natural Gas Prices Driving Chesapeake Energy Stock in 2017
Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 2016 debt management efforts included a combination of debt exchanges, open market repurchases, and equity-for-debt exchanges.
Decoding US Natural Gas Inventories by Region
The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be ~4.0 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2016, which is the start of the 2016–2017 heating season.
A Look at Pioneer Natural Resources’ Stock Performance
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) has recovered significantly from its low point in 2017. The stock has been on an uptrend recently, rising ~4% year-over-year.
Natural Gas Prices Could Trade within an Uptrend Channel
A symmetrical triangle could swing natural gas prices in either direction. Bears could see the key support at $2.50 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark in April.
Could Crude Oil Prices Give Chesapeake Stock a Much-Needed Boost?
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock has been choppy in the last few weeks, and its stock has been following the movements in energy prices. Since the beginning of 2017, CHK stock has fallen 28%.
Natural Gas Inventories Impact Natural Gas Prices
Over the last ten years, whenever natural gas inventories have been higher than their five-year average, prices have fallen.
Why Analysts Have a ‘Hold’ Rating for Canadian National Railway
There are 21 analysts covering CNI. Of those, only five, or 24.0%, have a “buy” rating for the stock.
How Has Cabot Oil & Gas Stock Performed in 2017?
Unlike most energy stocks, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) stock has increased this year. Since January, Cabot Oil & Gas stock has risen ~10%.
Behind Norfolk Southern’s Freight Volumes in Week 26
NSC broke its upward volume journey and reported a slight fall of 2% in its overall freight rail traffic in the week ended July 1, 2017.
Can SM Energy’s Stock Continue to Rally after Its 1Q16 Earnings?
SM Energy (SM) announced its 1Q16 earnings on May 3, 2016, after the Market closed. On the day of its earnings release, SM Energy’s stock price fell by 3.68% to close at $29.06 per share.
A Look at Cobalt International Energy’s 2Q17 Revenues
For 2Q17, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) reported revenues of ~$14.0 million, which was lower than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$34.0 million.
Large Build in US Natural Gas Inventories Pressured Gas Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 74 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,189 Bcf on April 14–21. Inventories rose 3.5% week-over-week.
Why CSX’s Overall Freight Volumes Declined in Week 36
In the week ended September 9, 2017, CSX registered a 4.2% fall in railcar volumes.
World Bank Thinks US Natural Gas Prices Could Rise in 2018
World Bank expects that US natural gas prices could average $3.1 per MMBtu in 2018, which would be 4% higher than the average level in 2017.
Is Southwestern Energy Following Natural Gas Price Movements?
As we saw in the previous part of this series, Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) stock price decreased strongly by ~6.0% for the week ended January 19. Natural gas (UGAZ)(DGAZ)(UNG) prices fell marginally by ~0.5%.
What’s the Latest News on Chesapeake Energy Stock?
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock increased 18.5% in the week ending May 15. The stock was supported by higher crude oil prices (DBO) (UCO).
How Union Pacific’s Carloads Compared with Overall US Railroads
In the week ended December 3, Union Pacific’s (UNP) overall railcars fell 2.6% to 95,000-plus units from ~98,000 units in the corresponding week of 2015.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Rise in September?
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions on US natural gas futures and options contracts by 2,511 contracts to 81,683 on August 15–22, 2017.
Comparing Union Pacific’s Carloads
Union Pacific’s carloads In the western United States, Union Pacific (UNP) competes with BNSF Railway, which is owned by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B). In the week ended February 18, 2017, UNP’s overall railcar volumes grew 7.2% YoY (year-over-year) to ~96,000 units. Railcar volumes, excluding coal and coke, rose 1.8% YoY to 70,000 units, compared with 69,000 units in […]
CSX: Behind the Freight Volume Decline in Week 37
CSX posted a double-digit 11.0% fall in railcar volumes in the week ended September 16, 2017.
Natural Gas Prices Are Trading near the Key Support Again
Natural gas futures contracts for October delivery fell for the second day. Natural gas prices have been fluctuating within a trading range for the last two months.
Natural Gas Could Fall below $2.7 Next Week
On August 3, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 30%—5.1% below its 15-day moving average.
Southwestern Energy Has a Higher Correlation with Natural Gas
For the week ending March 16, Southwestern Energy stock had a high correlation of ~79% with natural gas (UGAZ).
OPEC Could Pressure US Natural Gas Prices in 2018
US natural gas rigs rose 35% in the last 12 months, while US natural gas prices (UNG) fell 20% during this period.
How Could Hillary Clinton Impact the US Energy Market?
Hillary Clinton’s energy proposal implementation might slow down US crude oil production activity. It would be bullish for US crude oil prices.
Natural gas prices rallied again on cold weather conditions
Natural gas April futures contracts closed near the day’s high—up by 0.99% on February 27, 2015. The total volume for the day was at 107,303 contracts.
How Did BNSF’s Traffic Fare in Week Ending July 16?
BNSF Railway’s total railcars for the week ended July 16, 2016, fell by 1.8% to 99,000 units compared with 100,000 plus units on a year-over-year basis.
Chesapeake Energy Stock Didn’t Rise despite Rise in Natural Gas
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock has fallen a significant ~23.0% since the beginning of 2017. For the most part, it’s mirroring natural gas prices.
What to Expect from Natural Gas Prices
As of April 13, 2017, US natural gas prices were 19% below their 15-month high. They fell due to warmer-than-normal weather for this time of year.
How long will the weather batter natural gas prices?
Natural gas prices are in a long-term downward trend, driven by estimates of a huge supply outweighing demand from mid-November 2014.
Kansas City Southern: Railcars Kept Freight Volumes Up in Week 37
Kansas City Southern’s (KSU) railcar traffic increased 4.5% in the week ended September 16, 2017.
How Will SPY and US Natural Gas Futures Perform This Week?
Natural gas futures (GASL) (BOIL) rose 11.1% on December 22–29, 2017. It was the biggest weekly gain since December 2016.
How Union Pacific’s Carloads Compare to BNSF Railway’s
In the Western United States, Union Pacific (UNP) competes with BNSF Railway, which is owned by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B).
Will US Natural Gas Futures Test 2016 High?
As of May 4, 2017, June natural gas futures are above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
How Has Diamondback Energy Stock Performed in 2018?
On a YoY basis, Diamondback Energy stock has increased 8.3%. Diamondback Energy stock has outperformed the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE).
How Natural Gas Prices Have Supported Chesapeake Energy
2016 has been good for natural gas prices (UGAZ). Prices have risen ~34% year-over-year.
What Factors Drove the Major Coal Company Stocks in 1Q16?
Uncertainty surrounding the recovery of coal prices and the enactment of environmental regulations such as the Clean Power Plan impacted coal stocks in 1Q16.
Natural gas prices rally on bullish inventory withrawals
A bull-bear battle in February 2015 has caused natural gas prices to rise and fall repeatedly. The bull isn’t out of fight yet.
How Chesapeake Energy Stock Moved Last Week
Key factors have been supporting CHK stock recently, including rising oil prices, strong earnings, higher production, and the company paying down its debt.
What Is Chesapeake’s Production Forecast for 4Q16 and 2017?
Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 4Q16 production is expected to be 550 Mboepd–570 Mboepd.
Other than Coal Commodities Drove Union Pacific’s Carloads Higher
In the reported week, UNP’s combined coal (ARLP) and coke carloads fell 8.1% on a year-over-year basis.
How Could Donald Trump Impact the US Energy Market?
Donald Trump supports increasing production of fossil fuels like coal, crude oil, and natural gas. It could support employment and benefit the economy.
Natural Gas Prices Are Trading near the Support Level
Lower natural gas prices, demand from power plants, and warm weather could support natural gas prices. The next resistance is seen at $3 per MMBtu.
Natural gas prices declined more than 5% in a single day
Colder weather conditions and gas glut led to volatility in natural gas prices in February 2015. The EIA reported the weekly gas in storage on March 6, 2015.
Natural Gas Prices Impact Chesapeake Energy Stock
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock showed signs of improvement in the last few weeks. The stock tracked natural gas prices higher.
These Commodities Boosted Kansas City Southern’s Carloads
Kansas City Southern’s carloads Over the past few weeks, US-Mexico railroad Kansas City Southern (KSU) has seen higher freight volumes year-over-year. In the week ended November 18, 2017, KSU’s carload traffic stood at 26,600 units, up 5.7% from the 25,200 units it reported in the week ended November 19, 2016. Whereas many US railroads reported volume losses, Kansas City […]
Chesapeake Energy’s Stock Fell after 3Q17 Earnings
After Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 3Q17 earnings release on November 2, 2017, its stock fell ~7.6%.
Which Commodity Groups Drove Union Pacific’s Carloads Higher?
In the reported week, UNP’s combined coal (ARLP) and coke carloads fell 7.7% on a year-over-year basis. UNP’s coal revenues fell ~20% in 3Q16.
Which Commodities Pulled Down CSX’s Freight Volumes in Week 48?
CSX registered a 0.6% gain in intermodal volumes in week 48 of 2017.
How Do Union Pacific’s Carloads Compare with Industry Volumes?
In the week ended July 23, Union Pacific’s total railcars declined by 6.3% to 94,000 units from ~100,000 units in the corresponding week of 2015.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Outperform Wall Street Next Week?
December US natural gas (UNG) (UGAZ) futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose 0.97% and settled at $3.05 per MMBtu on November 16, 2017.
A Look at Union Pacific’s Carloads in the 4th Week of 2017
Union Pacific’s carloads In the western United States, Union Pacific (UNP) competes with BNSF Railway, which is owned by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), In the week ended January 28, 2017, UNP’s overall railcar volumes contracted 0.5% to ~95,000 units, flat compared with the volumes reported in the corresponding week of 2016. Railcar volumes, excluding coal and coke, […]
How Has Chesapeake Energy Stock Been Performing Lately?
CHK fell ~18% year-over-year, while XLE rose 14.3% year-over-year.
Chesapeake Energy Stock: What’s Holding It Down?
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock has fallen ~26.0% since the beginning of 2017.
How Crude Oil Prices and 2Q17 Earnings Are Driving WLL Stock
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) stock has been under pressure for most of this year. WLL stock has fallen ~60% since the beginning of 2017.
US Natural Gas Consumption: Bullish or Bearish for Prices?
The EIA estimated that monthly US natural gas consumption rose by 19 Bcf per day to 91 Bcf per day in December 2016—compared to the previous month.
How BNSF’s Carloads Compared to Rival Union Pacific
BNSF Railway’s (BRK-B) total railcars for the week ended December 10, 2016, fell 5.5% to ~95,000 units, compared to ~100,000 units on a year-over-year basis.
Chesapeake Energy’s Production Expectation for 2017 and Beyond
Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 2017 production growth guidance is -3.0%–2.0%. It plans to increase its production 5.0%–15.0% annually through 2020.
How BNSF’s Carloads Compare to UNP’s
BNSF Railway’s total railcars for the week ended July 9, 2016, fell by 11% to 85,000 plus units compared with 96,000 plus units on a year-over-year basis.
Lower Rise in US Natural Gas Inventories Supports Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 43 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 1.4% to 3,125 Bcf on August 11–18, 2017.
Natural gas at $2.65 levels seems more likely than $2.75 levels
Natural gas April futures trading on NYMEX closed at $2.732 per MMBtu on March 10, 2015. This was the fifth up day in the past ten days.
Why Did CSX’s Carloads Slump?
CSX (CSX) is a major operator in the Eastern US that competes with Norfolk Southern (NSC).
How Do Union Pacific’s Carloads Compare with Rival BNSF’s?
Union Pacific (UNP) competes with Berkshire Hathaway owned BNSF Railway (BRK-B) in the Western US.
Stone Energy’s Stock Performance in 2018
Stone Energy stock has increased the most among our top five companies. Stone Energy stock has risen 60% YoY (year-over-year).
CSX: Intermodal Supported Freight Volumes in Week 41
In the week ended October 14, 2017, Jacksonville-based CSX’s (CSX) carloads remained nearly unchanged compared with the volumes in the week ended October 15, 2016.
What Caused Range Resources’ Revenue Growth in 4Q17
Range Resources’ 4Q17 revenue In 4Q17, Range Resources (RRC) reported revenue of ~$600 million, lower than Wall Street analysts’ estimate of ~$626 million. RRC’s revenue rose ~24% from its 3Q17 revenue of ~$482 million and ~2% from its 4Q16 revenue of ~$590 million. Reasons behind Range Resources’ higher revenue in 4Q17 Range Resources’ higher revenue could be attributed […]
US Natural Gas Prices Are near 2-Month Highs
As of April 27, 2017, natural gas prices were 19.1% below their December 2016 high. Prices fell due to warmer-than-normal weather for this time of year.
Behind the Slump in CSX’s Carloads
In the week ended June 4, 2016, CSX’s carloads, excluding coal and coke, fell by 13.4%—somewhat higher compared with NSC’s volumes in the same category.
US Natural Gas Futures Are near a 4-Week High
US natural gas active futures hit $1.68 per MMBtu on March 4, 2016—the lowest level in 17 years. Prices hit $3.99 per MMBtu on December 28, 2016.
How Union Pacific’s Carloads Compare to the Industry
In the week ended August 27, 2016, Union Pacific’s railcar volumes declined by 6.9%, at 98,000-plus units from 105,000-plus units in the corresponding week in 2015.
These Commodity Groups Boosted Union Pacific’s Carloads Last Week
In the week ended February 25, 2017, UNP’s overall railcar volumes grew 5.4% YoY to ~95,000 units.
Centennial Resource Development: Stock Performance in 2018
Centennial Resource Development stock has declined ~15% YoY. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has declined ~4.5% YoY.
Why Did Southwestern Energy Stock Fall Last Week?
For the week ending December 15, Southwestern Energy stock had a very high correlation of ~92% with the natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ).
Natural Gas Prices Are Trading within a Downtrend Channel
November natural gas futures contracts are trading in a downward trending price channel. Weather and inventory data have been driving natural gas prices.
How Hedge Funds Feel about Natural Gas Right Now
On September 29, the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) is slated to release its weekly “Commitment of Traders” report.
What Boosted Canadian Pacific’s Railcar Traffic in Week 2
Canadian Pacific’s railcar traffic Calgary-based Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) posted a marginal gain of 0.6% in its carload traffic in the week ended January 13, 2018, from 29,000 carloads in the week ended January 14, 2017, to 29,300 units. The company’s volume growth was in tune with that of US railroads but contrasted with the decline […]
Why US Natural Gas Traders Are Tracking OPEC’s Production
Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.
Natural Gas Prices Are Trading within a Narrow Channel
The slowing natural gas inventory and warm weather could support natural gas prices. The nearest resistance for natural gas is seen at $3 per MMBtu.
Changing Winds in 2017 for Upstream Companies: Capex on the Rise
Capex increase in 2017 As we saw in the previous part, OPEC’s (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) November announcement was a catalyst to turning around commodity prices (USO) (UCO) (UNG) (UGAZ), especially oil prices. Global investment in 2017 A Wood Mackenzie report noted that “the global investment cycle will show the first signs of growth […]
Carloads Volume: Union Pacific versus BNSF Railway
Union Pacific’s carloads Union Pacific (UNP) competes with BNSF Railway, owned by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), in the western United States. In the week ended December 17, 2016, UNP’s overall railcars fell 7.5% to 89,000 units from 96,000 units in the corresponding week of 2015. Railcars, excluding coal and coke, fell 6.7% to around 67,000 units […]
Energy Calendar: Analyzing Key Oil and Gas Drivers
The energy sector contributed to ~6.6% of the S&P 500 on March 31, 2017. Oil and gas producers’ earnings depend on crude oil and natural gas prices.
US Natural Gas Rig Count and Natural Gas Price Forecasts
On June 30, 2017, Baker Hughes (BHI) is scheduled to release its US natural gas rig count report for the week ending June 30, 2017.
Comparing BNSF Railway’s Carload Traffic with the Industry in Week 48
BNSF Railway saw a double-digit rise in its intermodal volumes in the 48th week of 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Futures End 2017 on a Low Note?
January US natural gas (UGAZ) futures contracts were below their 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages on December 21, 2017.
Natural gas prices decline on bearish inventory data
April futures contracts for natural gas prices settled at $2.697 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on Thursday, February 26.
US Natural Gas Rig Count at Its Highest since December 2015
From March 24–31, 2017, the natural gas rig count rose by five to 160 rigs. It was its highest level since December 31, 2015.
How’s Chesapeake Energy’s Hedge Position Looking for 2017?
Chesapeake Energy’s December presentation noted that it had hedged 71% of natural gas volumes and 68% of oil volumes for 2017. It’s also hedged for 2018.
Freight Rail Traffic: CSX Lags behind Peers in Week 49
CSX’s carloads in Week 49 In 2017, among all Class I railroads, Jacksonville-headquartered CSX (CSX) has consistently reported lower YoY (year-over-year) freight volumes. The week ended December 9 was a no exception. In that week, CSX reported a 1.8% decline in carload traffic. CSX’s carload volumes fell to ~71,000 units from ~72,100 carloads in the week ended […]
US Crude Oil Prices Could Pressure Natural Gas Futures
Baker Hughes is scheduled to release its US crude oil and natural gas rig count report on November 11, 2017.
How BNSF’s Carloads Compared with the US Railroads
BNSF Railway’s total railcars for the week ended November 5, 2016, fell 2.6% to 105,000 units compared with ~107,000 plus units on a year-over-year basis.
Natural Gas Prices Rise from the Key Psychological Level
Natural gas futures contracts for October delivery rose for the second day. Natural gas prices have been in a narrow price channel of $2.65–$2.75 per MMBtu.
How Natural Gas Prices Are Impacting Chesapeake Energy Stock
CHK stock has fallen ~20.4% since the beginning of 2017, mirroring natural gas prices (UNG)(UGAZ) for the most part.
Dominion Resources’ Revenues Fell 13%: The Weather’s to Blame
For the fourth quarter of 2015, Dominion Resources (D) reported $2.5 billion in revenues against $2.9 billion in revenues for the fourth quarter of 2014.
How Do US Natural Gas Inventories Impact Natural Gas Prices?
The EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report on August 25. US natural gas inventories rose by 11 Bcf to 3.35 trillion cubic feet from August 12–19.
Where Wall Street Thinks Encana Could Trade in 2018
As of January 26, 2018, 31.0% of the analysts have a “strong buy,” 51.7% have a “buy,” 13.8% have a “hold,” and 3.5% have a “sell” recommendation on Encana.
How Do Natural Gas Inventories Impact Prices?
According to data from the EIA on December 8, 2016, natural gas inventories fell by 42 Bcf during the week ending December 2, 2016.
Possible Change in US Natural Gas Production Trends
According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production decreased 0.1% to 78 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on February 15–21, 2018.