Antero Resources Corp

On October 27, Antero Resources Corporation announced the initial public offering of Antero Midstream Partners LP.

Antero Resources’ current acreage is focused in the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia and the Utica Shale in Ohio.

The U.S. onshore, or land-based, rig count increased by four rigs—from 1,865 to 1,869—during the week ending September 19. Land-based rigs include 13 inland water rigs. This is the highest onshore rig count in the past two years. It’s the highest rig count since August 17, 2012. This marks the eighth increase in the past ten weeks.

Following Rice Energy’s (RICE) 1Q16 earnings, Wall Street analysts updated their target prices for the company for the next 12 months.

Natural gas prices in the northeastern US have increasingly been below the Henry Hub price. This is primarily because of the Northeast’s increased access to Marcellus natural gas production.

AR has reduced its 2016 E&P (exploration and production) capex (capital expenditure) by 22% from 2015. The E&P budget for 2016 is $1.4 billion.

The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be ~4.0 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2016, which is the start of the 2016–2017 heating season.

Antero Resources announced adjusted revenue of ~$783 million. AR’s 3Q16 revenue was ~37% higher than its 3Q15 revenue of ~$570 million.

Every week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (or EIA) reports figures on natural gas inventories, or the amount of natural gas stored in facilities across the U.S.

For 4Q17, Antero Resources (AR) is expected to report total production of 2,347 MMcfe/d (million cubic feet equivalent per day), which represents an 18% increase year-over-year.

The long-term oversupply concerns could drag natural gas prices lower. The key support for natural gas prices is seen at $2.60 per MMBtu.

Between May 15 and May 22, 2017, natural gas June futures fell 0.6%. During that same period, an equally weighted selection of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 1.5%.

Antero Midstream Partners, the midstream MLP formed by Antero Resources (AR) to provide natural gas midstream services, has 100 “buy” ratings.

On December 21–28, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 9.4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 17.5%.

October natural gas futures contracts rose by 0.86% on September 24. Natural gas prices rose despite a larger-than-expected rise in the natural gas inventory.

Between January 18 and January 25, the United States Natural Gas ETF fell 3.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF fell 8.1%.

On March 6, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for April 2017 delivery closed at $2.9 per MMBtu, which is ~2.6% above the previous closing price.

Approximately 63% of analysts rate Noble Energy (NBL) a “buy” and 37% rate it a “hold.”

Natural gas futures are expected to close between $3.24 and $3.85 per MMBtu 68.0% of the time until January 4.

Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) plans to release its second-quarter earnings on July 27. Revenue estimates stand at ~$384.96 million.

On September 1, natural gas (UNG) October futures closed at $3.07 per MMBtu (million British thermal units). On the same day, natural gas prices rose 1%.

On July 21, 2017, the short interest ratio, or short interest as a percentage of float, for Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock was ~23%.

About 73% of Street analysts rate Rice Energy a “buy,” while ~19% rate it a “hold,” and ~8% rate it a “sell.” The average broker target price is $18.93.

Natural gas futures contracts for October delivery fell by 1.04% on September 25, 2015. Natural gas prices fell due to oversupply concerns.

On July 18, 2017, Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) short interest ratio was ~4.7%. At the beginning of the year, its short interest ratio was 4.2%.

October natural gas futures contracts fell by 2% and settled at $2.64 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) on September 2, 2015.

On July 26, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 19.5%, ~2.5% below its 15-day moving average.

Range Resources and Antero Resources had the highest negative correlations with natural gas June futures over the past five trading sessions.

On April 24, natural gas June 2018 futures closed at a premium of ~$0.2 to June 2019 futures. The difference is called the “futures spread.”

Natural gas prices rose for the sixth time in the last ten days. Prices rose by 0.05% more on the up days than on the down days.

On April 3, 2018, natural gas May 2018 futures closed at a premium of $0.04 to May 2019 futures.

Natural gas prices fell for the fifth time over the last ten days. Prices fell by 4.6% more on the average down-days than on the average up-days.

In the past year, the correlation rose between natural gas and crude oil. During August 2015 and December 2015, the 30-day correlation rose significantly.

Between March 20, 2017, and March 27, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for May 2017 rose 1%. The commodity saw the small gain due to slightly bullish inventory data.

The consensus of rising inventories for the week ending July 31, 2015, might put downward pressure on natural gas prices.

US crude oil September futures closed at $68.69 per barrel on July 27—the fifth straight closing below $70.00 per barrel.

Let’s take a look at five stocks that are trading with high dividend yields and the risks involved with each.

In the week ending on December 28, the inventories spread was -17.2%.

On November 23–30, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 2.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 5%.

September natural gas futures trading in NYMEX fell by 0.53% on August 7. Natural gas prices fell due to oversupply concerns and the mild weather forecast.

On December 29, the natural gas rig count was 88.7% below its record high of 1,606 in 2008. However, natural gas supplies have risen drastically since 2008.

September natural gas futures contracts rose by 1.32% on Tuesday on August 25, 2015. Natural gas prices rose due to warm weather estimates.

2016 has been good for natural gas prices (UGAZ). Prices have risen ~34% year-over-year.

October natural gas futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 2.41% on September 14. The rising demand due to warm weather estimates supported natural gas prices.

The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is an ETF that tracks prompt natural gas futures. UNG shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange like company stock.

Mild weather could curb the cooling needs. As a result, the demand for natural gas could drop. This could be negative for natural gas prices.

On December 24, the natural gas futures for February 2019 closed at a premium of ~$0.35 to the February 2020 futures.

The EIA’s STEO was released on April 7. It forecasts that total natural gas consumption will average 76.3 Bcf/d in 2015 and 75.8 Bcf/d in 2016.

Lower natural gas prices, demand from power plants, and warm weather could support natural gas prices. The next resistance is seen at $3 per MMBtu.

On December 31, the natural gas futures for February 2019 closed at a discount of ~$0.06 to the February 2020 futures.

Natural gas futures contracts for December delivery rose by 2.8% on October 30. Natural gas prices rose for the second day due to the cold weather forecast.

September natural gas futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 2.18% on August 4, 2015. Prices rose for the second day due to the warm weather forecast.

NYMEX-traded natural gas futures contracts for October fell by 0.48% and closed at $2.70 per MMBtu on September 1. Prices were almost flat due to oversupply concerns.

For EQT (EQT), ~61% of the analysts rated the stock as a “buy,” while 39% rated it as a “hold.”

Southwestern Energy (SWN) was the weakest upstream stock in the week ending September 28. Southwestern Energy fell 10.8% last week.

On October 25, natural gas’s implied volatility was 42.1%, which was ~8.2% above its 15-day moving average.

Between March 3, 2016, and November 6, 2017, natural gas active futures rose 91.2% from their 17-year low.

Natural gas futures are expected to close between $2.74 and $2.90 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) 68.0% of the time until September 21.

Southwestern Energy had a correlation of 35.9% with US crude oil May futures on March 21–28, 2018.

October natural gas futures contracts rose for the first time in the last six days. Natural gas prices rose slightly by 0.16% on September 22, 2015.

On January 22, natural gas February futures fell to an intraday low of $3.13 per MMBtu, which is ~10% below the last closing level.

On March 5, natural gas active futures were 3.7%, 15.4%, and 8.6% below their 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.

From October 9–16, 2017, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 2.4% compared to a 4.0% rise in natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) November futures.

On April 18–26, natural gas active futures rose 1.8%. Natural gas to closed at $2.58 per MMBtu on April 26.

On February 25, natural gas’s 50-day moving average fell 0.7% below the 200-day moving average for the first time since July 3.

Except Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), all of the natural gas–weighted stocks on our list had correlations of over 34% with natural gas prices.

Prices have been fluctuating over the last month. The rising natural gas inventory and warm weather estimates continue to influence natural gas prices.

NYMEX-traded natural gas futures contracts rose by 0.18% on August 26. Natural gas prices rose for the second day due to the warm weather consensus.

For retail investors who don’t have easy access to the futures market, there are other safer low-cost avenues for betting on natural gas prices.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) reported its second-quarter earnings today. The company reported revenue of ~$2.25 billion, narrowly missing analysts’ estimates.

Natural gas futures for May delivery settled unchanged at $2.51 per MMBtu on Tuesday, April 13, 2015. Warm weather estimates curbed the demand for natural gas.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to October 24, 2016, natural gas rose 72.6% on a closing price basis.

The slowing natural gas inventory and warm weather could support natural gas prices. The nearest resistance for natural gas is seen at $3 per MMBtu.

Approximately 22% of analysts rate Chesapeake Energy (CHK) as a “buy” and 59% rate it as a “hold.” The remaining ~19% rate it as a “sell.”

Based on data from Bentek Energy, the EIA reported that total US natural gas production remained flat in the seven days leading up to September 30, 2015.

September natural gas futures contracts rose by 0.07% on August 11. Natural gas prices traded almost flat due to rising natural gas inventory estimates.

ETFs like the United States Natural Gas—UNG—ETF fell in the direction of natural gas prices on November 20, 2015. UNG fell by 4.7% on the day.

XOP underperformed both natural gas and UNG throughout the week. XOP returned the least in the group toward the end of the week.

On July 21, the EIA announced a 34 Bcf (billion cubic feet) addition to natural gas (UNG) (GASL) (GASX) (BOIL) inventory levels for the week ending July 15.

NYMEX-traded natural gas futures contracts for October delivery fell on September 18. The consensus of mild weather estimates pushed natural gas prices lower.

Approximately 22% of analysts rate Chesapeake Energy (CHK) as a “buy,” while 59% rate it as a “hold.” The remaining ~19% rate it as a “sell.”

The short interest as a percentage of float, or the short interest ratio, in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock was ~21.5% on October 20, 2017.

On October 16, the natural gas futures for November closed at a premium of ~$0.42 to the November 2019 futures.

Between September 1 and September 11, 2017, our collection of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.1%, while natural gas October futures fell 3.9%.

The natural gas rig count The natural gas rig count rose by four to 190 in the week ended September 22, 2017. YoY (year-over-year), the natural gas rig count has more than doubled. However, the price of natural gas (BOIL) fell 2.6% YoY. Natural gas production The natural gas rig count has fallen 88.2% from […]

Between September 25 and October 2, 2017, our list of natural-gas-weighted stocks rose 1.3% compared to a 2.4% fall in natural gas (FCG) (BOIL) November futures.

December natural gas futures contracts fell by 2.8% on November 2, 2015. Natural gas prices fell due to mild winter estimates and weak demand cues.

On May 28, natural gas July futures fell 1% and settled at $2.58 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).

Natural gas futures contracts for October delivery rose for the second day. Natural gas prices have been in a narrow price channel of $2.65–$2.75 per MMBtu.

The United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which tracks prompt natural gas futures, rose by 1.4% between October 2 and October 8, 2015.

Antero Resources reported CFO of ~$1.7 billion in the first nine months of 2017, compared with ~$905.7 million in the first nine months of 2016.

Noble Energy (NBL) will release its 1Q16 earnings on May 4, 2016. Its 1Q16 revenue estimate is ~$868.3 million.

The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be at 1,940 Bcf by the end of March 2017—20.0% higher than the five-year average.

On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to December 19, 2016, natural gas rose 106.7% on a closing price basis.

Rice Energy will release its 1Q16 earnings on May 4. The company’s 1Q16 revenue estimates stand at ~$197.5 million. Its revenue in 1Q15 was ~$109.5 million.

Range Resources (RRC) reported adjusted EPS of -$0.07 in the third quarter. Let’s talk about institutional investor activity in RRC in the quarter.

Last week, Chesapeake Energy stock (CHK) fell 15.9%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline. Here’s the outlook for this week.

Hedge funds’ net long positions in US natural gas futures (UGAZ) (UNG) and options contracts were at 5,318 for the week ending January 2, 2018.

Speculation is rife that Apple (AAPL) has acquired iKinema, a UK company that specializes in motion capture, games, and VR and AR.

Any rise less than ~42 Bcf could cause the inventories spread to expand more into the negative territory—a positive development for natural gas prices.