United States Natural Gas ETF

Mild weather and rising inventory estimates could drag natural gas prices lower. The key support for natural gas prices is seen at $2.60 per MMBtu.

In the week ended October 1, 2016, CSX’s overall carloads reported a fall of 5.6% compared to the week ended October 3, 2015.

Natural gas rigs remain down since the beginning of the year, with no major catalyst for them to increase in the medium term.

Donald Trump’s policies are aimed at strengthening job markets in the United States (VFINX) (IVV).

Natural gas prices rose last week in response to a bullish inventory report and expected cold weather.

ConocoPhillips stock is nearing its psychologically important price level of $40. It hasn’t been able to break above this level since January 5.

Union Pacific’s combined coal and coke carloads fell by 26.2% in the latest reported week of 2016 on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. natural gas rigs remain elevated 10% since late June.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 2016 debt management efforts included a combination of debt exchanges, open market repurchases, and equity-for-debt exchanges.

On July 19, 2017, natural gas August futures closed at $3.07 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), 0.7% below their previous settling price.

Energy stocks are rising this week. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has risen 1.2% from June 18–20.

US natural gas inventories are 16.4% more than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could keep a lid on US natural gas prices.

In the week ending March 26, 2016, CSX’s (CSX) railcar units, excluding coal and coke, fell by 8.0%.

Marathon Oil’s stock price fell from $15.91 to $15.16 last week, while crude oil prices fell from $53.18 per barrel to $49.62 per barrel.

In 9M17, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) reported revenues of ~$1.4 billion, which is ~63.0% higher than its 9M16 revenues of ~$839.0 million.

For 2Q17, Denbury Resources’ continuing production averaged 59.8 Mboepd, which is ~5% lower than its 2Q16 continuing production of ~63.0 Mboepd.

The key support level for natural gas is seen at $2.50 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark multiple times in April 2015. Resistance is seen at $2.75 per MMBtu.

High yield debt markets saw $6 billion worth of new supply issued across 12 transactions in the week ending October 24.

In this series, we’ll analyze Range Resources’ 2Q16 earnings and revenue and look at its cash flow, operational performance, analyst ratings, and price forecasts.

September natural gas futures contracts rose for the third day in a row. Natural gas prices have been trading close to the key resistance of $2.90 per MMBtu.

On February 10, 2014, Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (BWP) announced 4Q13 and FY2013 results. The company reported 4Q13 adjusted EBITDA of $129.6 million.

Natural gas futures for July delivery slumped by 4.95% on Thursday. Natural gas prices declined due to rising inventory data. It continued its losing streak.

CSX’s carloads In the week ended January 14, 2017, CSX’s (CSX) overall railcar volumes rose 3.1% YoY (year-over-year). In the second week of 2017, CSX hauled over 68,000 railcars, compared with over 66,000 railcars in the comparable week last year. The company’s carloads, excluding coal and coke, rose 0.8%—a smaller rise than Norfolk Southern’s (NSC). […]

Natural gas continued to climb on the week, as the markets expected cold weather to boost demand, a positive short-term and medium-term indicator.

After EQT’s 3Q17 earnings release on October 26, its stock fell ~1.3%. The stock likely fell due to the 3Q17 revenue miss and fall in natural gas prices.

Last week (ended May 26), crude oil prices fell from $50.67 per barrel to $49.80 per barrel.

Last week temperatures were colder than normal, however, natural gas fell steeply on the week despite this.

For 2Q17, California Resources (CRC) reported total production of 129 Mboepd, which is below the midpoint production guidance of 128 Mboepd to 133 Mboepd.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) lowered its production estimates for natural gas. The fall in production corresponds to lower natural gas prices.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock has been choppy in the last few weeks, and its stock has been following the movements in energy prices. Since the beginning of 2017, CHK stock has fallen 28%.

In the fourth quarter 2017, Kansas City Southern (KSU) reported revenue of $660.4 million, exceeding analysts’ revenue estimates by 0.6%.

GasLog Partners (GLOP) plans to release its 1Q18 results before the market opens on April 27.

Unlike most energy stocks, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) stock has increased this year. Since January, Cabot Oil & Gas stock has risen ~10%.

In June 2017, Morgan Stanley upgraded GasLog (GLOG) to “overweight” from “equal weight.”

The EIA estimated that US-marketed natural gas production fell by 0.64 Bcf per day to 77.93 Bcf per day in October—compared to September 2016.

In the week ended April 22, 2017, CSX Corporation’s (CSX) overall railcar volumes fell ~0.6% YoY (year-over-year).

The long-term oversupply concerns could drag natural gas prices lower. The key support for natural gas prices is seen at $2.60 per MMBtu.

On April 5, 2017, active natural gas (UNG) (FCG) (BOIL) (GASL) futures were trading at a premium of $0.33 to futures contracts 12 months forward.

Encana (ECA) didn’t give any specific production guidance for 4Q17. But on its 3Q17 earnings conference call, Encana maintained its 2017 production guidance from July 2017.

The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.2% of the S&P 500 Index, fell 0.4% on June 13. XLE fell ~0.4% to $76.42 on June 13.

On December 21–28, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 9.4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 17.5%.

On November 16, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas was 44%—6.4% above its 15-day average.

On November 2, 2017, natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) implied volatility was 38.2%, 1.8% below its 15-day average.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock increased 18.5% in the week ending May 15. The stock was supported by higher crude oil prices (DBO) (UCO).

Another key reason behind why investors have kept Chesapeake Energy (CHK) in their sights is its significant steps towards debt reduction and management.

October natural gas futures contracts rose by 0.86% on September 24. Natural gas prices rose despite a larger-than-expected rise in the natural gas inventory.

Between January 18 and January 25, the United States Natural Gas ETF fell 3.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF fell 8.1%.

On March 6, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for April 2017 delivery closed at $2.9 per MMBtu, which is ~2.6% above the previous closing price.

May natural gas futures fell by 4.47% and settled at $2.52 per MMBtu on April 9, 2015. Natural gas prices plunged because of the massive inventory buildup.

PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption dropped ~1.4% to 56.7 Bcf per day on May 17–23.

CSX (CSX) is a major operator in the Eastern US that competes with Norfolk Southern (NSC).

On Thursday, September 3, 2015, natural gas prices rallied due to speculation of an increase in demand for natural gas as a result of the warm weather forecast.

September natural gas futures contracts fell by 4.91% on August 13, 2015. Prices fell due to a better-than-expected rise in natural gas inventory data.

Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) plans to release its second-quarter earnings on July 27. Revenue estimates stand at ~$384.96 million.

Natural gas futures for May delivery rose for the second day by 1.20% and settled at $2.60 per MMBtu on April 22, 2015.

NYMEX-traded June natural gas futures increased by 1.62% on Monday—led by the consensus of warm weather estimates. Prices rose for the fifth consecutive day.

Between October 27 and November 3, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose just 0.2%, and natural gas December futures rose 0.7%.

On September 1, natural gas (UNG) October futures closed at $3.07 per MMBtu (million British thermal units). On the same day, natural gas prices rose 1%.

CNI’s freight volumes in Week 49 Recently, Canada’s largest freight railway, Canadian National Railway (CNI), has seen its carload traffic fall YoY (year-over-year). However, in the last two weeks, the trend has reversed. In the week ended December 9, 2017, or Week 49, the railroad’s carload traffic grew 4.9% to ~62,600 carloads from ~59,700 units […]

Natural gas futures contracts for October delivery fell by 1.04% on September 25, 2015. Natural gas prices fell due to oversupply concerns.

In the week ended December 10, 2016, CSX’s (CSX) overall carloads fell 6.1%. The company hauled 72,000 railcars against 77,000 in the corresponding week last year.

October natural gas futures contracts fell by 2% and settled at $2.64 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) on September 2, 2015.

NYMEX-traded natural gas for May increased by 1.54% on April 21, 2015. Prices increased due to cold weather estimates. This could increase the demand for natural gas.

On March 1, 2017, active natural gas (UNG) (FCG) (BOIL) (GASL) futures were trading at a discount of $0.5 to futures contracts 12 months ahead.

On April 24, natural gas June 2018 futures closed at a premium of ~$0.2 to June 2019 futures. The difference is called the “futures spread.”

Natural gas futures contracts for October delivery fell for the second day. Natural gas prices have been fluctuating within a trading range for the last two months.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil June futures closed at $46.22 per barrel on May 5, 2017—a 1.5% rise from the previous trading session.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.

Natural gas prices rose for the sixth time in the last ten days. Prices rose by 0.05% more on the up days than on the down days.

On April 3, 2018, natural gas May 2018 futures closed at a premium of $0.04 to May 2019 futures.

On September 21, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.1%, or 5.1% above the 15-day average.

The correlation between Cheniere Energy’s stock price and crude oil (USO) resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.87 during the past year.

US natural gas rigs rose 35% in the last 12 months, while US natural gas prices (UNG) fell 20% during this period.

In the week ended June 18, 2016, CSX Corporation’s carloads excluding coal and coke fell by 3.6%

UNG was underperforming natural gas for almost the entire week, but towards the end of the week, it gave slightly higher returns.

Natural gas April futures contracts closed near the day’s high—up by 0.99% on February 27, 2015. The total volume for the day was at 107,303 contracts.

According to Reuters, the consensus rating for Höegh LNG Partners (HMLP) is 1.38, which means a “strong buy.”

Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.

Last week, natural gas prices declined more than coal prices which is an incentive for power plants to use more natural gas as fuel relative to coal.

On August 31, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) active futures’ implied volatility was 32%, which was 4.9% above its 15-day moving average.

The consensus of rising inventories for the week ending July 31, 2015, might put downward pressure on natural gas prices.

Futures spread On September 27, 2017, natural gas (FCG) (GASL) (BOIL) 2018 November futures traded $0.04 lower than November 2017 futures. That is, the futures spread was at a discount of $0.04. On September 20, 2017, the futures spread was at a discount of $0.10. Between September 20 and 27, 2017, natural gas November futures […]

For the week ending November 17, ConocoPhillips (COP) stock had shown the highest correlation of ~91% with natural gas (UNG).

For most investors, the most straightforward way to play natural gas prices is through commodity ETFs or investing in equities that produce natural gas.

In the last four trading sessions, natural gas May futures rose 3.8%. So, UNG and BOIL outperformed natural gas May futures during this period.

On November 23–30, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 2.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 5%.

The S&P 500 rose ~0.85% to 2,759.82 on July 6, its highest level in two weeks.

Natural gas prices are in a long-term downward trend, driven by estimates of a huge supply outweighing demand from mid-November 2014.

On May 10, the United States Oil ETF (USO) rose 0.3%. On May 3–10, US crude oil June futures rose 4.3%.

UNG shares trade on the NYSE like a company stock. They gained 9.09% last week.

UNG shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange like company stock. UNG fell just 0.41% between September 18 and September 24.

For the week ending October 20, ConocoPhillips stock showed a negative correlation of -15% with crude oil (USO) (SCO).

September natural gas futures trading in NYMEX fell by 0.53% on August 7. Natural gas prices fell due to oversupply concerns and the mild weather forecast.

For 4Q17, ConocoPhillips (COP) expects total production (USO) (UNG) in the range of 1,195–1,235 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day).

For the week ending October 20, 2017, crude oil (USO) prices rose from $51.45 per barrel to $51.84 per barrel—an increase of 0.76%.

On September 6, natural gas October futures rose 0.9% and settled at $3 per MMBtu. On August 30–September 6, 2017, natural gas October futures rose 2.1%.

This past week, natural gas prices decreased by $0.25 per MMBtu. Natural gas prices remain low in a long term perspective despite last week’s great slip.

Natural gas futures increased by 0.73% from June 12–18. For investors who don’t have easy access to the futures market, there are other ow-cost avenues to bet on natural gas prices.

The energy sector contributed to ~6.3% of the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) on April 28, 2017. Oil and gas are major parts of the energy sector.

September natural gas futures contracts rose by 1.32% on Tuesday on August 25, 2015. Natural gas prices rose due to warm weather estimates.