United States Natural Gas ETF

Kansas City Southern (KSU) registered a 3.8% gain in carload traffic in the 52nd week of 2017, going against the trend among other US railroads.

Mild weather and rising inventory estimates could drag natural gas prices lower. The key support for natural gas prices is seen at $2.60 per MMBtu.

On July 5, 2017, natural gas (UNG) active futures fell 3.8% and settled at $2.84 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), their lowest level since March 8, 2017.

Genesee & Wyoming’s North American railcar traffic expanded 4.9% YoY (year-over-year) on a same-railroad basis in April 2018.

In the week ended October 1, 2016, CSX’s overall carloads reported a fall of 5.6% compared to the week ended October 3, 2015.

Natural gas rigs remain down since the beginning of the year, with no major catalyst for them to increase in the medium term.

ConocoPhillips’s (COP) Barnett assets have a relatively small contribution to its overall production. In 2016, COP’s Barnett assets produced only 11 MBoepd.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories fell by 68 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,295 Bcf between February 24, 2017, and March 3, 2017.

BNSF Railway (BRK-B) operates in the Western US in direct competition with Union Pacific (UNP).

Natural gas has gained market share for use in power generation. Learn about the drivers of this trend and the consequences of increased natural gas use.

On February 9–16, 2018, US crude oil April futures rose 4.3% and closed at $61.55 per barrel on February 16, 2018.

Stocks that are leading the rise in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund this week include Chesapeake Energy, Andeavor, and FMC Technologies.

For 2Q17, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) reported operating cash flow of ~$144 million, which is ~3% lower than Wall Street analysts’ expectation for ~$149 million in cash flows.

According to Range Resources’ presentation on its merger with Memorial Resource Development, it’s expecting an ~108% boost to its 2016 estimated cash flow.

Donald Trump’s policies are aimed at strengthening job markets in the United States (VFINX) (IVV).

According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), retail electricity prices were $0.10 per kilowatt-hour in 1Q17, 1.7% higher compared to 1Q16.

According to CHK’s December 2016 presentations, break-even prices in the Marcellus and Utica Shales are $2.00 per MMBtu and $2.15 per MMBtu, respectively.

Natural gas prices rose last week in response to a bullish inventory report and expected cold weather.

ConocoPhillips stock is nearing its psychologically important price level of $40. It hasn’t been able to break above this level since January 5.

July natural gas futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 3.26% on Thursday. Natural gas prices closed at $2.85 per MMBtu on June 25, 2015.

Union Pacific’s combined coal and coke carloads fell by 26.2% in the latest reported week of 2016 on a year-over-year basis.

December natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures contracts trading on NYMEX fell 0.97% to $3.05 per MMBtu (or million British thermal units) on October 26, 2017.

U.S. natural gas rigs remain elevated 10% since late June.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 2016 debt management efforts included a combination of debt exchanges, open market repurchases, and equity-for-debt exchanges.

On July 19, 2017, natural gas August futures closed at $3.07 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), 0.7% below their previous settling price.

Energy stocks are rising this week. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has risen 1.2% from June 18–20.

Analysts are expecting CNP’s earnings to come in at $0.23 per share in 4Q15 versus its earnings of $0.36 per share in 4Q14.

US natural gas inventories are 16.4% more than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could keep a lid on US natural gas prices.

On January 23, the natural gas futures for March 2019 closed at a discount of ~$0.01 to the March 2020 futures.

Crude oil (USO) prices rose from last week’s close of $68.58 per barrel to $70.53 per barrel on June 26—an increase of ~3%.

Last week (ended June 2, 2017), crude oil prices continued their weekly declining trend, falling from $49.80 per barrel to $47.66 per barrel.

In the week ending March 26, 2016, CSX’s (CSX) railcar units, excluding coal and coke, fell by 8.0%.

As of November 2, 2017, around 71.9% of analysts covering Devon Energy (DVN) have “strong buy” or “buy” recommendations on the stock.

Marathon Oil’s stock price fell from $15.91 to $15.16 last week, while crude oil prices fell from $53.18 per barrel to $49.62 per barrel.

In 9M17, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) reported revenues of ~$1.4 billion, which is ~63.0% higher than its 9M16 revenues of ~$839.0 million.

For 2Q17, Denbury Resources’ continuing production averaged 59.8 Mboepd, which is ~5% lower than its 2Q16 continuing production of ~63.0 Mboepd.

For 2Q17, W&T Offshore (WTI) reported total production of ~3.9 MMboe, which was slightly above the mid-point of its production guidance range of 3.7 MMboe–4.1 MMboe.

The key support level for natural gas is seen at $2.50 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark multiple times in April 2015. Resistance is seen at $2.75 per MMBtu.

High yield debt markets saw $6 billion worth of new supply issued across 12 transactions in the week ending October 24.

In this series, we’ll analyze Range Resources’ 2Q16 earnings and revenue and look at its cash flow, operational performance, analyst ratings, and price forecasts.

On April 9, the natural gas futures for May 2019 closed at a premium of ~$0.08 to the May 2020 futures.

September natural gas futures contracts rose for the third day in a row. Natural gas prices have been trading close to the key resistance of $2.90 per MMBtu.

On February 10, 2014, Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (BWP) announced 4Q13 and FY2013 results. The company reported 4Q13 adjusted EBITDA of $129.6 million.

Offshore oil and gas producer Cobalt International Energy (CIE) just saw its stock price underperform crude oil prices by a wide margin.

The information technology, energy, and materials sectors rose 2.2%, 2.2%, and 1.9%, respectively, on March 29, 2018.

Natural gas futures for July delivery slumped by 4.95% on Thursday. Natural gas prices declined due to rising inventory data. It continued its losing streak.

CSX’s carloads In the week ended January 14, 2017, CSX’s (CSX) overall railcar volumes rose 3.1% YoY (year-over-year). In the second week of 2017, CSX hauled over 68,000 railcars, compared with over 66,000 railcars in the comparable week last year. The company’s carloads, excluding coal and coke, rose 0.8%—a smaller rise than Norfolk Southern’s (NSC). […]

In the second quarter, CSX’s coal revenues grew 7.0% year-over-year to $569.0 million from $530.0 million in the second quarter of 2017.

Natural gas prices closed at $4.49 per MMBtu for the week ended March 28, 2014, up from $4.31 per MMBtu the prior Friday.

On November 2, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (USL) December futures rose 0.4% and settled at $54.54 per barrel, the highest closing price for US crude oil active futures in 2017.

Natural gas continued to climb on the week, as the markets expected cold weather to boost demand, a positive short-term and medium-term indicator.

After EQT’s 3Q17 earnings release on October 26, its stock fell ~1.3%. The stock likely fell due to the 3Q17 revenue miss and fall in natural gas prices.

In 1Q17, Denbury Resources (DNR) reported revenue of ~$275 million, ~11% higher than Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate of ~$248 million.

Last week (ended May 26), crude oil prices fell from $50.67 per barrel to $49.80 per barrel.

In this part of our series, we’ll compare Noble Energy (NBL) stock movements with movements in the broader industry, the broader market, crude prices, and natural gas prices.

Dynegy (DYN) has taken an aggressive stance from the last couple of quarters and has added several power generation assets to its current portfolio.

Last week temperatures were colder than normal, however, natural gas fell steeply on the week despite this.

Natural gas inventory figures as reported on July 3 were mildly positive, and the commodity traded up slightly on the day.

The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.1% of the S&P 500 Index, fell ~1.1% on April 27. XLE fell ~1.1% to $73.83 on April 27.

For 2Q17, California Resources (CRC) reported total production of 129 Mboepd, which is below the midpoint production guidance of 128 Mboepd to 133 Mboepd.

For 3Q17, Wall Street analysts expect Devon Energy (DVN) to report revenues of ~$3.17 billion. On a year-over-year basis, DVN’s 3Q17 revenues expectations are ~10% higher compared with 3Q16 revenues of ~$2.88 billion.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) lowered its production estimates for natural gas. The fall in production corresponds to lower natural gas prices.

A symmetrical triangle could swing natural gas prices in either direction. Bears could see the key support at $2.50 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark in April.

On May 1, the natural gas futures for June 2019 closed at a premium of ~$0.05 to the June 2020 futures.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock has been choppy in the last few weeks, and its stock has been following the movements in energy prices. Since the beginning of 2017, CHK stock has fallen 28%.

In 1Q17, the stock of Appalachian natural gas (UNG) producer Southwestern Energy (SWN) underperformed natural gas, falling from $10.82 to $8.17.

In the fourth quarter 2017, Kansas City Southern (KSU) reported revenue of $660.4 million, exceeding analysts’ revenue estimates by 0.6%.

On July 20, 2017, natural gas active futures’ implied volatility was 32.3%, which was 3% below their 15-day moving average.

GasLog Partners (GLOP) plans to release its 1Q18 results before the market opens on April 27.

Unlike most energy stocks, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) stock has increased this year. Since January, Cabot Oil & Gas stock has risen ~10%.

GasLog Partners’s (GLOP) fiscal 2016 revenues totaled $228 million—higher than its revenues of $200 million recorded in 2015.

In June 2017, Morgan Stanley upgraded GasLog (GLOG) to “overweight” from “equal weight.”

The EIA estimated that US-marketed natural gas production fell by 0.64 Bcf per day to 77.93 Bcf per day in October—compared to September 2016.

In the week ended April 22, 2017, CSX Corporation’s (CSX) overall railcar volumes fell ~0.6% YoY (year-over-year).

Driven by higher exports and lower imports, the US became a net exporter of natural gas (UNG) for the first time in November 2016. US natural gas exports totaled ~202 Bcf by the end of September 2016, which is 42% higher than the five-year average of ~142 Bcf.

For 2Q17, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) reported revenues of ~$14.0 million, which was lower than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$34.0 million.

Top upstream MLP losers include EV Energy Partners (EVEP), Memorial Production Partners (MEMP), Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR), and Legacy Reserves (LGCY).

The long-term oversupply concerns could drag natural gas prices lower. The key support for natural gas prices is seen at $2.60 per MMBtu.

On April 5, 2017, active natural gas (UNG) (FCG) (BOIL) (GASL) futures were trading at a premium of $0.33 to futures contracts 12 months forward.

Encana (ECA) didn’t give any specific production guidance for 4Q17. But on its 3Q17 earnings conference call, Encana maintained its 2017 production guidance from July 2017.

PointLogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production rose 0.3% to 80.1 Bcf per day on April 5-11, 2018.

The energy sector, which accounts for ~6.2% of the S&P 500 Index, fell 0.4% on June 13. XLE fell ~0.4% to $76.42 on June 13.

On December 21–28, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 9.4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 17.5%.

On November 16, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas was 44%—6.4% above its 15-day average.

On November 2, 2017, natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) implied volatility was 38.2%, 1.8% below its 15-day average.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock increased 18.5% in the week ending May 15. The stock was supported by higher crude oil prices (DBO) (UCO).

Another key reason behind why investors have kept Chesapeake Energy (CHK) in their sights is its significant steps towards debt reduction and management.

October natural gas futures contracts rose by 0.86% on September 24. Natural gas prices rose despite a larger-than-expected rise in the natural gas inventory.

Between January 18 and January 25, the United States Natural Gas ETF fell 3.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF fell 8.1%.

For the week ending November 17, Marathon Oil stock had the highest correlation of ~97% with natural gas (UNG).

On March 6, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for April 2017 delivery closed at $2.9 per MMBtu, which is ~2.6% above the previous closing price.

May natural gas futures fell by 4.47% and settled at $2.52 per MMBtu on April 9, 2015. Natural gas prices plunged because of the massive inventory buildup.

The energy sector contributed to ~6.6% of the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) on April 13, 2017. Oil and gas are major parts of the energy sector.

The earnings of midstream companies do not have much direct commodity price exposure.

PointLogic estimates that US natural gas consumption dropped ~1.4% to 56.7 Bcf per day on May 17–23.

CSX (CSX) is a major operator in the Eastern US that competes with Norfolk Southern (NSC).

On Thursday, September 3, 2015, natural gas prices rallied due to speculation of an increase in demand for natural gas as a result of the warm weather forecast.

September natural gas futures contracts fell by 4.91% on August 13, 2015. Prices fell due to a better-than-expected rise in natural gas inventory data.

PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.6% to 80.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on April 19–25.

Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) plans to release its second-quarter earnings on July 27. Revenue estimates stand at ~$384.96 million.