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Markets Crash in 1Q – April Fool’s
Decent earnings combined with low expectations are fueling rally after rally – not to mention the ever elusive promise of a China deal.
Is US Crude Oil Losing Momentum?
Between April 20 and April 27, US crude oil June futures fell 0.4%. Let’s take a closer look.
US Natural Gas Futures near 2-Week High
March US natural gas futures contracts fell 0.34% to $2.62 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on February 23, 2018.
S&P 500 and US Natural Gas Futures Next Week
NYMEX natural gas futures contracts for March delivery fell 0.27% to $2.58 per MMBtu on February 15, 2018.
Where Could Natural Gas Prices Close Next Week?
On January 25, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was at 54.8%, 8% above its 15-day average.
Does Natural Gas’s Rise Depend on Crude Oil?
Between January 16 and January 23, 2018, natural gas (GASL) (UNG) (FCG) had a correlation of 84.6% with US crude oil (OIIL) (USL) (DBO) active futures.
Is Natural Gas Pricing in Colder Weather?
On January 23, 2018, natural gas February 2018 futures settled $0.34 above February 2019 futures.
How Natural Gas ETFs Performed Last Week
Between January 12 and January 19, 2018, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), an ETF that has exposure to natural gas futures, fell 1.7%.
Why US Natural Gas Traders Are Tracking OPEC’s Production
Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.
What to Expect from Natural Gas Next Week
On January 18, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 53.9%, 10.2% above its 15-day average.
Are the Gains in Natural Gas and Oil Coincidental?
Between January 9 and January 16, 2018, the correlation between natural gas and US crude oil active futures was 52.7%.
Natural Gas Longs: Here’s Why You Should Watch Oil Rigs
On January 12, 2018, the natural gas rig count was 88.4% less than its historic high of 1,606 in 2008.
How Natural Gas ETFs Are Reacting to Spike in Natural Gas
Between January 5 and January 12, 2018, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which holds positions in active natural gas futures, gained 14.5%.
Is $3.30 Possible for Natural Gas Next Week?
On January 11, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 49.1%. That’s 7% above its 15-day average.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Rise or Fall in 2018?
February US natural gas (UGAZ) futures contracts are above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages on January 11, 2018.
US Natural Gas Futures Could Continue to Fall
Hedge funds’ net long positions in US natural gas futures (UGAZ) (UNG) and options contracts were at 5,318 for the week ending January 2, 2018.
Possible Downside in Natural Gas Next Week
On December 21, 2017, natural gas prices closed at the lowest closing level since February 23, 2017. Since that day, natural gas futures have risen 11.1%.
Natural Gas Traders Should Stay Cautious of Oil Rigs
On December 29, the natural gas rig count was 88.7% below its record high of 1,606 in 2008. However, natural gas supplies have risen drastically since 2008.
Natural Gas ETFs to Watch in 2018
On December 29, 2017, the closing prices of natural gas futures contracts between March 2018 and May 2018 were progressively lower.
Natural Gas Returns and Natural Gas ETFs
From December 15–22, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) rose 0.6%.
Could Natural Gas Reach a New 2017 Low Next Week?
Implied volatility On December 21, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 42.4%. In the last trading session, their implied volatility was on par with the 15-day average. Supply-glut concerns pushed natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures to a 17-year low on March 3, 2016, with an implied volatility of 53.8%. From this multiyear low, natural gas prices […]
Is Natural Gas Moving with Oil Prices?
The correlation between natural gas (GASL)(GASX)(FCG) active futures with US crude oil active futures was 99.8% between December 12 and December 19.
Are Natural Gas ETFs Outperforming the Natural Gas Fall?
Between December 8 and December 15, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)—which invests in natural gas near-month futures contracts—fell 5.6%.
Could Natural Gas Hit a New 2017 Low Next Week?
On December 14, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas futures was 40.4%. It was ~5.9% below its 15-day average.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Fall More?
US natural gas (GASL) futures contracts for January delivery were below their 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages on December 14, 2017.
Natural Gas: Fall Impacts Natural Gas ETFs
On December 1–8, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), which holds near-month natural gas futures contracts, fell 9.3%.
Possibilities for Natural Gas Prices Next Week
On December 7, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 40.5% or ~7.5% less than its 15-day average. On November 29, the implied volatility rose to 47.7%.
Is US Natural Gas Production Helping Natural Gas Bears?
US dry natural gas production fell by 0.5 Bcf per day or 0.7% to 76.2 Bcf per day on November 30–December 6, 2017, according to PointLogic.
Does the Natural Gas Fall Relate to Oil’s Decline?
Between November 29 and December 6, natural gas (GASL)(GASX)(FCG) January 2018 futures had a correlation of -1.6% with US crude oil January futures.
Rise in Natural Gas Impacts Natural Gas ETFs
On November 24–December 1, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), that follows near-month natural gas futures contracts, rose 4.5%.
Can Natural Gas Stay above $3 Next Week?
On November 30, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 44.3%, about 1% above its 15-day average.
Will US Natural Gas Prices Trend Higher Next Week?
A massive fall in natural gas inventories compared to the historical and seasonal average could drive natural gas prices higher next week.
US Natural Gas Future Fell after the Natural Gas Inventory Report
The EIA released its natural gas inventory report on November 30, 2017. US natural gas inventories fell by 33 Bcf to 3,693 Bcf on November 17–24, 2017.
How Are Natural Gas ETFs Adjusting to Fall in Natural Gas Prices?
Between November 17 and November 24, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 8.8%.
Analyzing the Downside for Natural Gas Next Week
On November 24–30, natural gas active futures could close between $2.89 and $3.23 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) with a probability 68%.
Weather Impacts the US Natural Gas Market
January US natural gas (DGAZ) (UNG) futures contracts fell 1.4% to $3.01 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 1:05 AM EST on November 24, 2017.
Will the Inventory Spread Help Natural Gas Rise?
In the week ended November 17, natural gas inventories were cut by 46 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,726 Bcf. The market had expected a fall of 51 Bcf.
Are Natural Gas ETFs Doing Any Better than Natural Gas?
Between November 10 and November 17, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 3.2% while natural gas active futures fell 3.6%.
How Much Natural Gas Could Fall Next Week
On November 16, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas was 44%—6.4% above its 15-day average.
Did Natural Gas ETFs Outperform Natural Gas Last Week?
Between November 3 and November 10, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose 8%, only 30 basis points above the gain in natural gas December futures.
Natural Gas Could Reach the $3.4 Mark Next Week
On November 9, 2017, natural gas had an implied volatility of 43.5%—9.4% more than its 15-day average. Natural gas active futures settled at $3.2 per MMBtu.
How Natural Gas ETFs Fared Last Week
Between October 27 and November 3, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose just 0.2%, and natural gas December futures rose 0.7%.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Surpass Production
US natural gas consumption rose by 8.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 64.5 Bcf per day on October 26–November 1, 2017.
What Could Impact Natural Gas Futures?
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.5 Bcf per day on October 26–November 1, 2017.
Will Natural Gas Prices Fall to $2.8 Next Week?
On November 2, 2017, natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) implied volatility was 38.2%, 1.8% below its 15-day average.
Natural Gas versus Natural Gas ETFs Last Week
On October 20–27, natural gas (FCG) (GASL) (GASX) December futures fell 4.8%. During this period, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 4.1%.
Could Laggards Come Out as Winners?
As with most timeframes in the market, the laggards are a mix of surprising and obvious names (in hindsight, of course). This October, they stand out a little more than usual since so many asset classes are up this year.
How Weather Influences Natural Gas Prices
If, in real estate, everything is “location, location, location,” then with natural gas investing, everything is “weather, weather, weather.”
Will Natural Gas Remain above $3 Next Week?
On October 26, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL) futures’ implied volatility was at 38.3%—3.4% above the 15-day average.
How Weather Forecasts Are Affecting US Natural Gas Futures
December natural gas (BOIL) (FCG) futures contracts fell 0.29% to $3.04 per MMBtu (or million British thermal units) in electronic exchange at 2:04 AM EST on October 27, 2017.
Where Natural Gas ETFs Stood next to Natural Gas Last Week
Between October 13 and October 20, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 2.2%, and natural gas November futures fell 2.8%.
US Natural Gas Rig Count Could Hit a 2-Month Low
Baker Hughes will publish its weekly US oil and gas rig count report on October 19, 2017. The US natural gas rig count fell by two to 185 on October 6–13.
Will Natural Gas Fall to $2.7 Levels Next Week?
On October 19, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 38.8%, 9.6% above its 15-day average.
Where Natural Gas Prices Stand next to Oil Prices
Between October 11 and October 18, 2017, natural gas active futures had a correlation of -53.1% with US crude oil futures.
US Natural Gas Production’s 22-Month High: Will Prices Collapse?
US dry natural gas production rose by 3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.9 Bcf per day in July 2017—compared with the previous month.
Will Natural Gas Reclaim $3 Next Week?
On October 12, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.9%, 1.7% above its 15-day average.
Did UNG Outperform Natural Gas in the Week Ended October 6?
Between September 29 and October 6, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) fell 4.9%, while natural gas (BOIL) (GASX) November futures fell 4.8%.
Could Natural Gas Fall below the $2.8 Mark Next Week?
On October 5, 2017, the implied volatility of US natural gas active futures was at 33.1%, or 7.3% below the 15-day average.
How the Oil Rig Count Affects Natural Gas Prices
In the week ended September 29, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by one to 189. On a year-over-year basis, the natural gas rig count has risen ~97%.
How UNG Fared Compared to Natural Gas Last Week
On September 22–29, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose 0.2%, while natural gas (BOIL) November futures fell 0.5%.
How Weather Is Affecting US Natural Gas Futures
US natural gas (DGAZ)(UGAZ) futures contracts fell 0.3% to $3.00 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 2:00 AM EST today.
Could the Inventories Spread Pull Natural Gas Prices Down?
Inventory data In the week ended September 15, 2017, natural gas inventories rose 97 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,408 Bcf, 4 Bcf more than the market had expected. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported this data on September 21, 2017. That day, natural gas November futures fell 4.5%. Inventories spread The difference between natural […]
Where Natural Gas Prices Could Go Next Week
On September 21, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.1%, or 5.1% above the 15-day average.
Will US Natural Gas Consumption Rise in 2018?
PointLogic estimates that weekly US natural gas consumption rose 11.3% to 57.9 Bcf per day on September 14–20, 2017.
OPEC’s Meeting Could Impact US Natural Gas Production and Prices
PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.5 Bcf per day on September 14–20, 2017.
Should Energy Stocks Go in Your Back-to-School Shopping Basket?
The energy sector, as tracked by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), has lost ~17.0% year-to-date as of August 31.
Why US Natural Gas Prices Could Rise in 2018
The CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) is scheduled to release its weekly “Commitment of Traders” report on September 15.
Why US Natural Gas Inventories Are above their 5-Year Average
On September 14, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly US natural gas inventory report.
Will the Weather Drive US Natural Gas Futures?
NYMEX natural gas (DGAZ)(UGAZ) futures contracts for October delivery fell 0.4% to $3.05 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 3:50 AM EST today.
Natural Gas Could Regain the $3 Mark Next Week
In the next seven days, natural gas October futures could close between $2.85 and $3.11 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Will Natural Gas Hold on to the $3 Level Next Week?
On August 31, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) active futures’ implied volatility was 32%, which was 4.9% above its 15-day moving average.
Why US Natural Gas Production Fell from a 10-Month High
The EIA estimates that monthly US dry natural gas production fell by 1.36 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day or 1.8% to 72.9 Bcf per day in June 2017.
US Natural Gas Futures Are near a 5-Week High
October natural gas (BOIL) (UNG) futures contracts trading on NYMEX rose 2% to $3.04 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on August 31, 2017.
Inventories Spread Could Boost Natural Gas Prices
The difference between natural gas inventories and its five-year average, the inventories spread, could influence natural gas prices.
Supply and Demand Factors Impact Natural Gas Prices
PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production fell 0.27% to 72.8 Bcf per day on August 17–23, 2017.
Why US Natural Gas Futures Fell before Expiry
September US natural gas (UNG) (GASL) futures contracts fell 1.7% to $2.89 per MMBtu on August 25, 2017. The contracts will expire on August 29.
Natural Gas Could Move above $3 Next Week
On August 24, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures’ implied volatility was 30.6%. The implied volatility rose 2% above its 15-day moving average.
Inventories Spread: Bullish or Bearish for Natural Gas Prices?
In the week ending August 11, 2017, natural gas inventories rose by 53 Bcf to 3,082 Bcf based on the EIA’s data released on August 17, 2017.
Warm Weather Could Benefit Natural Gas Prices
September natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) futures contracts trading in NYMEX fell 0.2% to $2.92 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 2:00 AM EST on August 18, 2017.
Inventories Spread: Natural Gas Prices Could Make a U-Turn
In the week ending August 4, 2017, natural gas inventories rose by 28 Bcf to 3,038 Bcf. The EIA reported natural gas inventory data on August 10, 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Production and Consumption Pressure Prices?
The EIA (Energy Information Administration) estimates that monthly US dry natural gas production hit a ten-month high.
Will US Weather Pressure or Support Natural Gas Prices?
September US natural gas (DGAZ) (GASL) futures contracts rose 0.1% to $2.98 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 1:50 AM EST on August 11, 2017.
Is $3.10 Possible for Natural Gas This Week?
On August 10, 2017, the implied volatility for natural gas’s (UNG) (BOIL) active futures was 30.4%, which was 0.70% below its 15-day average.
Natural Gas Futures Spread: What Investors Should Know
On August 9, 2017, natural gas September 2018 futures traded $0.005 below September 2017 futures.
Natural Gas Could Fall below $2.7 Next Week
On August 3, 2017, natural gas’s implied volatility was 30%—5.1% below its 15-day moving average.
Will the US Natural Gas Rig Count Fall Again This Week?
Baker Hughes (BHI) will release its weekly US natural gas rig count report on July 28, 2017. The rig count fell by one to 186 rigs on July 14–21, 2017.
US Natural Gas Production Is near a 2-Year Low
The EIA estimates that monthly US dry natural gas production fell by 2.37 Bcf per day, or 3.2%, to 71.6 Bcf per day in April 2017—compared to March 2017.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions on US Natural Gas Rose
Hedge funds increased their net bullish positions on US natural gas futures and options contracts by 11,617 contracts to 92,583 on June 24–July 4, 2017.
Slowing Natural Gas Inventories Could Drive Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 57 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,945 Bcf on June 30–July 7, 2017.
Will Oil Rigs Accelerate Natural Gas’s Fall?
In the week ended June 30, 2017, the natural gas rig count rose by just one to 184. However, on a year-over-year (or YoY) basis, the natural gas rig count has more than doubled.
What to Expect from Natural Gas this Summer
So what are the returns for natural gas in the summer? Again, these numbers look pretty bleak until late summer.
Why the Natural Gas Inventory Spread Supports Its Recent Recovery
In the week ended June 16, 2017, natural gas inventories rose 61 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,770 Bcf based on EIA data released on June 22, 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Inventories Support Prices?
US natural gas inventories rose by 61 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,770 Bcf on June 9–16, 2017. Inventories fell 10.5% from the same period in 2016.
Natural Gas Inventories Spread: Savior for Natural Gas Bulls?
The EIA reported that natural gas inventories rose by 78 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,709 Bcf in the week ending June 9, 2017.
Chart of the Week: Weather Forecast Report for Natural Gas
Weather forecasting agencies predict mild weather in the southern and middle Atlantic regions of the US for the next two weeks.
Will Weather Forecasts Surprise Natural Gas Bulls This Week?
US natural gas futures contracts for July delivery rose 0.4% and were trading at $3.06 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 1:30 AM EST on June 16, 2017.
US Natural Gas Futures Recovered from a 3-Month Low
NYMEX natural gas (GASL) (DGAZ) futures contracts for July delivery rose 4.3% and settled at $3.06 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on June 15.
What’s in the Natural Gas Inventory Spread—Bears?
In the week ended June 2, 2017, natural gas inventories rose by 106 Bcf.
Chart in Focus: The Natural Gas Inventory Spread
Between January 27–June 7, 2017, natural gas active futures fell 10.9%. Natural gas inventories moved above their five-year average in the week ended January 27, 2017.
Why the Inventory Spread Could Make Natural Gas Bulls Happy
On a week-over-week basis, natural gas inventories rose by 75 Bcf (billion cubic feet) and were at 2,444 Bcf for the week ended May 19, 2017.