Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF

On May 24–29, natural gas July futures fell 2.3%. On May 24, the EIA released the natural gas inventory report for the week ending May 18.

In the week ending May 11, natural gas inventories rose by 106 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,538 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on May 17.

In the week ending April 27, natural gas inventories rose by 62 Bcf to 1,343 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on May 3.

In the week ending May 4, the oil rig count rose by nine to 834—the highest level in more than three years.

In the week ending April 20, natural gas inventories declined by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,281 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on April 26.

In the week ending April 13, natural gas inventories declined by 36 Bcf to 1,299 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on April 19.

In the week ending April 20, the oil rig count rose by five to 820—the highest level in more than three years.

In the week ending March 30, 2018, the oil rig count fell by seven to 797. US crude oil prices and the oil rig count usually move in a pattern.

On March 19, US crude oil May futures fell 0.4% and settled at $62.13 per barrel. US crude oil May futures made a high of $62.44 per barrel.

On February 27, 2018, natural gas futures contracts’ closing prices until August 2018 settled at progressively higher prices.

US crude oil production increased by 332,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,251,000 bpd on January 26–February 2, 2018.

On February 6, 2018, natural gas March 2018 futures settled $0.2 below March 2019 futures.

US crude oil production could hit a record high of 10,200,000 bpd in 2018, which would be the highest annual production average ever.

On January 29, 2018, the difference between Brent crude oil (BNO) active futures and WTI crude oil active futures was $3.9—the lowest since August 17, 2017.

US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.1 MMbbls to 411.6 MMbbls on January 12–19, 2018. They also fell ~12% in 2017.

In the week ending January 12, 2018, US crude oil exports were at ~1.25 MMbpd—234,000 barrels per day more than the previous week.

According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production increased by 0.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.7 Bcf per day on January 11–17, 2018.

The EIA estimates that global crude oil inventories could rise in 2018 and 2019, which is bearish for oil prices.

On January 11, 2018, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 18.2%. That was 5.2% above its 15-day average.

US natural gas consumption fell 14.4% to 102.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on January 4–10, 2018, according to PointLogic.

On January 4, 2018, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 17.9%—2.9% above its 15-day average.

For the week ended December 29, 2017, the US oil rig count was unchanged at 747, but it has risen 42.3% from last year.

Cushing inventories fell by 1,584,000 barrels to 51.4 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 15–22, 2017, according to the EIA.

A larger-than-expected withdrawal in US natural gas inventories compared to historical averages would help natural gas prices this week.

US crude oil production declined by 35,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 0.4% to 9,754,000 bpd from December 15 to 22, 2017, per the EIA.

Cushing inventories rose by 754,000 barrels or 1.4% to 52.9 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 8–15, 2017, according to the EIA.

According to the EIA, global crude oil supply outages fell by 10,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 0.7% to 1,555,000 bpd in November 2017.

Oil rig count In the week ended December 15, 2017, the US oil rig count fell by four to 747, and rose 50% from the same period last year. However, US crude oil prices rose only 10.1% from last year, showing how a higher oil rig count can limit oil prices. Often, oil prices fluctuate three to six months […]

Cushing inventories fell by 3,317,000 barrels to 52.2 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 1–8, 2017, according to the EIA.

US distillate inventories fell by 1.3 MMbbls (million barrels) to 128.1 MMbbls on December 1–8, 2017, according to the EIA.

On November 24, 2017, US crude oil settled at the highest closing price in 2017. The oil rig count could be at a three-year high by May 2018.

Reuters estimated that Iraq’s crude oil production fell by 50,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 4,330,000 bpd in November 2017—compared to the previous month.

The EIA estimated that Cushing’s crude oil inventories fell by 2,753,000 barrels or 4.7% to 55.5 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 24–December 1, 2017.

US crude oil (DWT) futures hit $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017, which was the highest level in the last 30 months.

According to the EIA, US gasoline inventories rose by 6,780,000 barrels to 220.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 24–December 1, 2017.

In the week ending December 1, 2017, the oil rig count rose by two to 749. In the last four weeks, there hasn’t been a decline in the oil rig count.

The API reported that US gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 9,200,000 barrels and 4,300,000 barrels on November 24–December 1, 2017.

Wall Street analysts anticipate that crude oil inventories at Cushing would fall between November 24, 2017, and December 1, 2017.

The EIA released its natural gas inventory report on November 30, 2017. US natural gas inventories fell by 33 Bcf to 3,693 Bcf on November 17–24, 2017.

US crude oil exports rose by 462,000 bpd or 41% to 1,591,000 bpd on November 10–17, 2017, according to the EIA.

OPEC’s meeting will be held in Vienna on November 30, 2017. Crude oil (BNO) (DBO) (SCO) prices have risen 23% since September 2017.

The EIA estimated that Cushing’s crude oil inventories fell by 1,827,000 barrels or 2.9% to 61 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 10–17, 2017.

On November 22, 2017, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 23%—approximately 3% below its 15-day average.

US gas rigs are at the highest level since October 20, 2017. Meanwhile, crude oil (USL) (DBO) prices are at a 30-month high.

The EIA estimated that US natural gas inventories fell by 46 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 1.2% to 3,726 Bcf on November 10–17, 2017.

US gasoline inventories According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), US gasoline inventories rose by 44,000 barrels to 210.4 MMbbls (million barrels) between November 10 and 17, 2017. However, gasoline inventories were 13.5 MMbbls (6.1%) lower than in the same period in 2016. The market estimated that US gasoline inventories would rise by 737,000 barrels between […]

US crude oil production  According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), US crude oil production rose 13,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,658,000 bpd between November 10 and 17, 2017. Production, which rose for the fifth straight week, has been pressuring oil (SCO) prices in the last few weeks. Production has risen 977,000 bpd (11.3%) year-over-year. Any […]

US crude oil exports fell by 1,264,000 bpd or 60% to 869,000 bpd on October 27–November 3, 2017. Exports rose by 459,000 bpd from the same period in 2016.

The EIA estimates that Cushing’s crude oil inventories rose by ~720,000 barrels to 64.5 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 27–November 3, 2017.

Based on the implied volatility of 24.4% and a standard deviation of one, US crude oil active futures could settle between $55.24 and $59.10 per barrel.

The EIA (or US Energy Information Administration) released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on November 8, 2017.

In the week ended November 3, 2017, the US oil rig count fell by 8 to 729. In the last 12 weeks since the week ended August 11, 2017, the US oil rig count has risen only twice.

The EIA estimates that US crude oil production averaged 9.3 MMbpd in October 2017—down by 90,000 bpd (barrels per day) from the level in September.

The EIA reported that Cushing’s crude oil inventories rose by ~100,000 barrels to 63.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 20–October 27, 2017.

US crude oil production rose by 1,101,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,507,000 bpd on October 13–20, 2017. Production has risen by 1,003,000 bpd or 11.8% YoY.

The global oil supply is expected to average 97.99 MMbpd in 2017, which is 760,000 bpd or 0.8% higher than the oil supplies in 2016.

The market expected that Cushing’s crude oil inventories would rise on October 20–27, 2017. Cushing oil inventories are near a five-month high.

PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.6 Bcf per day between October 19 and October 25, 2017.

The EIA (or US Energy Information Administration) published its weekly US natural gas inventory report on October 26, 2017.

Last week (ended October 20, 2017), the natural gas rig count fell by eight to 177.

Crude oil inventories rose by 856,000 barrels to 457.3 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 13–20, 2017. The inventories are near a three-week high.

The EIA estimates that the four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 76,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,345,000 bpd on October 6–13, 2017.

Global crude oil supply outages are near the six-year low. Any fall in the crude oil supply outage could increase the supplies and pressure oil prices.

Wall Street analysts expected that crude oil inventories at Cushing would rise between October 13, 2017, and October 20, 2017.

US natural gas consumption rose by 7.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per to 70.37 Bcf per day in July 2017 compared to August 2017.

The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” on October 12. It reported that gasoline inventories rose by 2.4 MMbbls (million barrels).

The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” on October 12, 2017.

The EIA estimates that weekly US gasoline demand fell by 281,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9.2 MMbpd (million barrels per day) on September 22–29, 2017.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production is expected to fall to 9.77 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in November 2017, according to Saudi Aramco.

The US oil rig count contracted by seven and was at 749 in the week ended September 15, 2017—the fifth-straight week without a rise in the oil rig count.

A market survey estimates that Cushing crude oil inventories has risen between September 8 and September 15.

Russia’s crude oil production averaged ~11.0 MMbpd in 2016—the highest level in 30 years. Russia’s crude oil production could average 11.1 MMbpd in 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose by 50,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 10.20 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in July 2017 compared to the previous month.

The US oil rig count rose by three to 768 for the week ended August 11, 2017.

On August 10, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) active futures implied volatility was 27.3%–2.2%, which was below its 15-day average.

The EIA released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on August 8, 2017. It estimates that US crude oil production could average 9.35 MMbpd in 2017.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell 1.1% or by 2.5 MMbbls (million barrels) to 227.7 MMbbls on July 21–28, 2017.

Oil rig data The US oil rig count rose by two to 766 in the week ended July 28, 2017. Year-over-year, the oil rig count has surged by more than twofold, with US crude oil active futures gaining 22.7%. Since the high of 9.6 million barrels per day in the week ended June 5, 2015, […]

On a week-over-week basis, the oil rig count fell by one to 764 for the week ending July 21, 2017. The oil rig count has more than doubled on a YoY basis.

The US Energy Information Administration estimated that OPEC’s spare crude oil production capacity fell by 170,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 2.01 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2017.

Hedge funds increased their net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options rose by 36,834 contracts to 215,488 contracts on July 11–18, 2017.

On July 24, 2017, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister stated that the country would cut crude oil exports to 6.6 MMbpd in August 2017.

On July 20, 2017, US crude oil futures’ implied volatility was 27.2%, which was 4.2% below its 15-day moving average.

The US oil rig count extended to 765 in the week ending July 14, 2017—a gain of two rigs compared to the previous week.

The EIA estimates that the four-week average for US gasoline demand rose 129,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9.7 MMbpd (million barrels per day) from July 7 to 14, 2017.

In the week ended July 7, 2017, the natural gas rig count gained five and went to 189. Compared to the same period in 2016, it has more than doubled.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell 1.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 235.6 MMbbls between June 30, 2017, and July 7, 2017.

The US oil rig count rose by seven to 763 in the week ended July 7, 2017. This was the rig count’s highest level since April 10, 2015.

India is the third-largest crude oil consumer after the US and China. India is expected to import crude oil from the US by October 2017.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production hit 10.7 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2017.

There are several important events this week that could affect crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices.

In the week ended June 30, 2017, the natural gas rig count rose by just one to 184. However, on a year-over-year (or YoY) basis, the natural gas rig count has more than doubled.

On June 23–June 30, the US oil rig count fell by two to 756. The fall was marginal, but it was the first fall after rising for 23 consecutive weeks.

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options by 1,136 contracts to 133,606 contracts on June 20–27, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 0.1 MMbbls to 241 MMbbls on June 16–23, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that weekly US gasoline demand rose by 547,000 bpd or 6% to 9,816,000 bpd on June 9–16, 2017.

On June 22, 2017, WTI crude oil (USO) (OIIL) active futures’ implied volatility was 29.7%, up 1.7% compared to its 15-day average.

In the week ended June 16, 2017, the US oil rig count was 747, its highest level since the week ended April 17, 2015.

On June 15, 2017, US crude oil active futures’ implied volatility was 27.9%.

US gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 MMbbls to 242.3 MMbbls on June 2–9, 2017. Inventories rose 0.9% week-over-week and 2.3% year-over-year.