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Higher Inventories Might Help Natural Gas Recover
On May 24–29, natural gas July futures fell 2.3%. On May 24, the EIA released the natural gas inventory report for the week ending May 18.
Higher Inventories Might Support Natural Gas’s Rise
In the week ending May 11, natural gas inventories rose by 106 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,538 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on May 17.
Change in Inventory Levels Might Support Natural Gas Prices
In the week ending April 27, natural gas inventories rose by 62 Bcf to 1,343 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on May 3.
Will There Be More Upside in the Oil Rig Count?
In the week ending May 4, the oil rig count rose by nine to 834—the highest level in more than three years.
Higher Inventories Might Support Natural Gas Prices
In the week ending April 20, natural gas inventories declined by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,281 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on April 26.
Natural Gas Inventory: Analyzing the Expectations
In the week ending April 13, natural gas inventories declined by 36 Bcf to 1,299 Bcf—based on the EIA’s data announced on April 19.
Oil Rig Count: Is More Upside Possible?
In the week ending April 20, the oil rig count rose by five to 820—the highest level in more than three years.
Why the Oil Rig Count Could Concern Energy Investors
In the week ending March 30, 2018, the oil rig count fell by seven to 797. US crude oil prices and the oil rig count usually move in a pattern.
Why the Equity Market Could Be Dragging Oil Prices Down
On March 19, US crude oil May futures fell 0.4% and settled at $62.13 per barrel. US crude oil May futures made a high of $62.44 per barrel.
Natural Gas Market: A Tight Supply Situation?
On February 27, 2018, natural gas futures contracts’ closing prices until August 2018 settled at progressively higher prices.
OPEC Upgrades Non-OPEC and US Crude Oil Production
US crude oil production increased by 332,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,251,000 bpd on January 26–February 2, 2018.
Are Concerns about Natural Gas Oversupply Back?
On February 6, 2018, natural gas March 2018 futures settled $0.2 below March 2019 futures.
US Crude Oil Production Is near 1970 High
US crude oil production could hit a record high of 10,200,000 bpd in 2018, which would be the highest annual production average ever.
Brent-WTI Spread Is Declining: What Does It Mean?
On January 29, 2018, the difference between Brent crude oil (BNO) active futures and WTI crude oil active futures was $3.9—the lowest since August 17, 2017.
US and OECD’s Crude Oil Inventories Could Impact Oil’s Price Rally
US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.1 MMbbls to 411.6 MMbbls on January 12–19, 2018. They also fell ~12% in 2017.
US Oil Exports Could Threaten International Oil Prices
In the week ending January 12, 2018, US crude oil exports were at ~1.25 MMbpd—234,000 barrels per day more than the previous week.
US Natural Gas Production and Consumption Could Impact Prices
According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production increased by 0.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.7 Bcf per day on January 11–17, 2018.
OECD’s Crude Oil Inventories: Trump Card for Crude Oil Bulls?
The EIA estimates that global crude oil inventories could rise in 2018 and 2019, which is bearish for oil prices.
What Could Be the High for US Crude Oil Next Week?
On January 11, 2018, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 18.2%. That was 5.2% above its 15-day average.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Hit a Record in 2018 and 2019
US natural gas consumption fell 14.4% to 102.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on January 4–10, 2018, according to PointLogic.
Upside in US Crude Oil Next Week
On January 4, 2018, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 17.9%—2.9% above its 15-day average.
Why Oil Rigs Could Stymie Oil’s Gains
For the week ended December 29, 2017, the US oil rig count was unchanged at 747, but it has risen 42.3% from last year.
Cushing Inventories Could Boost Crude Oil Prices in 2018
Cushing inventories fell by 1,584,000 barrels to 51.4 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 15–22, 2017, according to the EIA.
Natural Gas Inventories Could Help US Natural Gas Prices
A larger-than-expected withdrawal in US natural gas inventories compared to historical averages would help natural gas prices this week.
Weekly US Crude Oil Production Fell for the 1st Time since October
US crude oil production declined by 35,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 0.4% to 9,754,000 bpd from December 15 to 22, 2017, per the EIA.
Cushing Inventories Rose for the First Time in Nearly 2 Months
Cushing inventories rose by 754,000 barrels or 1.4% to 52.9 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 8–15, 2017, according to the EIA.
Global Crude Oil Supply Outage Is near 2012 Low
According to the EIA, global crude oil supply outages fell by 10,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 0.7% to 1,555,000 bpd in November 2017.
Ignoring Oil Rig Data Could Cost Oil Bulls
Oil rig count In the week ended December 15, 2017, the US oil rig count fell by four to 747, and rose 50% from the same period last year. However, US crude oil prices rose only 10.1% from last year, showing how a higher oil rig count can limit oil prices. Often, oil prices fluctuate three to six months […]
Cushing Inventories: Largest Weekly Fall since 2009
Cushing inventories fell by 3,317,000 barrels to 52.2 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 1–8, 2017, according to the EIA.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the First Time in 4 Weeks
US distillate inventories fell by 1.3 MMbbls (million barrels) to 128.1 MMbbls on December 1–8, 2017, according to the EIA.
Bullish Oil Traders Must Count the Oil Rigs
On November 24, 2017, US crude oil settled at the highest closing price in 2017. The oil rig count could be at a three-year high by May 2018.
Iraq’s Crude Oil Production and Exports Could Help Oil Bulls
Reuters estimated that Iraq’s crude oil production fell by 50,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 4,330,000 bpd in November 2017—compared to the previous month.
Cushing Oil Inventories Are near November 2015 Low
The EIA estimated that Cushing’s crude oil inventories fell by 2,753,000 barrels or 4.7% to 55.5 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 24–December 1, 2017.
Will Crude Oil Futures Be Range Bound or Trend Higher?
US crude oil (DWT) futures hit $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017, which was the highest level in the last 30 months.
US Gasoline Inventories Add More Pain to Crude Oil Futures
According to the EIA, US gasoline inventories rose by 6,780,000 barrels to 220.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 24–December 1, 2017.
Oil Rig Count Could Threaten Your Energy Portfolio
In the week ending December 1, 2017, the oil rig count rose by two to 749. In the last four weeks, there hasn’t been a decline in the oil rig count.
Analyzing US Gasoline Inventories and Demand
The API reported that US gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 9,200,000 barrels and 4,300,000 barrels on November 24–December 1, 2017.
Cushing Inventories Are Near 13-Week Low: Good News for Oil Bulls
Wall Street analysts anticipate that crude oil inventories at Cushing would fall between November 24, 2017, and December 1, 2017.
US Natural Gas Future Fell after the Natural Gas Inventory Report
The EIA released its natural gas inventory report on November 30, 2017. US natural gas inventories fell by 33 Bcf to 3,693 Bcf on November 17–24, 2017.
Improving US Crude Oil Drilling Costs and Oil Exports
US crude oil exports rose by 462,000 bpd or 41% to 1,591,000 bpd on November 10–17, 2017, according to the EIA.
How Long Can OPEC Extend the Production Cuts?
OPEC’s meeting will be held in Vienna on November 30, 2017. Crude oil (BNO) (DBO) (SCO) prices have risen 23% since September 2017.
Cushing Inventories Could Push WTI Crude Oil Futures Higher
The EIA estimated that Cushing’s crude oil inventories fell by 1,827,000 barrels or 2.9% to 61 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 10–17, 2017.
What to Expect from US Crude Oil Next Week
On November 22, 2017, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 23%—approximately 3% below its 15-day average.
Higher Crude Oil Prices Pressure US Natural Gas Futures
US gas rigs are at the highest level since October 20, 2017. Meanwhile, crude oil (USL) (DBO) prices are at a 30-month high.
US Natural Gas Inventories Have Fallen 8% from Last Year
The EIA estimated that US natural gas inventories fell by 46 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 1.2% to 3,726 Bcf on November 10–17, 2017.
How Lower US Gasoline Inventories Help Crude Oil Futures
US gasoline inventories According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), US gasoline inventories rose by 44,000 barrels to 210.4 MMbbls (million barrels) between November 10 and 17, 2017. However, gasoline inventories were 13.5 MMbbls (6.1%) lower than in the same period in 2016. The market estimated that US gasoline inventories would rise by 737,000 barrels between […]
Why US Crude Oil Production Could Hit a Record High in 2018
US crude oil production According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), US crude oil production rose 13,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,658,000 bpd between November 10 and 17, 2017. Production, which rose for the fifth straight week, has been pressuring oil (SCO) prices in the last few weeks. Production has risen 977,000 bpd (11.3%) year-over-year. Any […]
US Distillate Inventories Are near a 3-Year Low
A better-than-expected draw in distillate inventories supported US diesel futures on November 15, 2017.
Russian and US Crude Oil Exports Are Important for Oil Bears
US crude oil exports fell by 1,264,000 bpd or 60% to 869,000 bpd on October 27–November 3, 2017. Exports rose by 459,000 bpd from the same period in 2016.
Cushing Inventories: Analyzing Crude Oil Futures’ Rally
The EIA estimates that Cushing’s crude oil inventories rose by ~720,000 barrels to 64.5 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 27–November 3, 2017.
US Crude Oil’s Price: Could Reach $60 Next Week
Based on the implied volatility of 24.4% and a standard deviation of one, US crude oil active futures could settle between $55.24 and $59.10 per barrel.
Unexpected Build in US Crude Oil Inventories Pressures Oil Futures
The EIA (or US Energy Information Administration) released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on November 8, 2017.
Oil Rigs: Will Oil Prices Be Their Undoing?
In the week ended November 3, 2017, the US oil rig count fell by 8 to 729. In the last 12 weeks since the week ended August 11, 2017, the US oil rig count has risen only twice.
Will US Crude Oil Production and Exports Pressure Oil Prices?
The EIA estimates that US crude oil production averaged 9.3 MMbpd in October 2017—down by 90,000 bpd (barrels per day) from the level in September.
Cushing Inventories: Bears Could Outcast the Bulls
The EIA reported that Cushing’s crude oil inventories rose by ~100,000 barrels to 63.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 20–October 27, 2017.
US Crude Oil Production: Will It Cap Oil Prices in 2018?
US crude oil production rose by 1,101,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,507,000 bpd on October 13–20, 2017. Production has risen by 1,003,000 bpd or 11.8% YoY.
How Long Will Production Cuts Help the Global Crude Oil Market?
The global oil supply is expected to average 97.99 MMbpd in 2017, which is 760,000 bpd or 0.8% higher than the oil supplies in 2016.
Will Cushing Inventories Cap the Upside for Crude Oil Futures?
The market expected that Cushing’s crude oil inventories would rise on October 20–27, 2017. Cushing oil inventories are near a five-month high.
How Is US Natural Gas Production and Consumption Trending?
PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.6 Bcf per day between October 19 and October 25, 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Inventories Help Natural Gas Futures?
The EIA (or US Energy Information Administration) published its weekly US natural gas inventory report on October 26, 2017.
The Oil Rig Effect on Natural Gas Prices
Last week (ended October 20, 2017), the natural gas rig count fell by eight to 177.
Surprise Build in US Crude Oil Inventories Helps Crude Oil Bears
Crude oil inventories rose by 856,000 barrels to 457.3 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 13–20, 2017. The inventories are near a three-week high.
Is US Gasoline Demand Impacting Crude Oil Prices?
The EIA estimates that the four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 76,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,345,000 bpd on October 6–13, 2017.
Global Crude Oil Supply Outages Are near a 6-Year Low
Global crude oil supply outages are near the six-year low. Any fall in the crude oil supply outage could increase the supplies and pressure oil prices.
Cushing Inventories Are Near 5-Month High: Bearish for Oil
Wall Street analysts expected that crude oil inventories at Cushing would rise between October 13, 2017, and October 20, 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Consumption Drive Prices?
US natural gas consumption rose by 7.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per to 70.37 Bcf per day in July 2017 compared to August 2017.
Surprise Build in US Gasoline Inventories: Impact on Prices
The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” on October 12. It reported that gasoline inventories rose by 2.4 MMbbls (million barrels).
US Crude Oil Inventories Are 21% above their Five-Year Average
The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” on October 12, 2017.
US Gasoline Demand Could Fall and Pressure Crude Oil Prices
The EIA estimates that weekly US gasoline demand fell by 281,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9.2 MMbpd (million barrels per day) on September 22–29, 2017.
Will Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Production and Exports Hit a New Low?
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production is expected to fall to 9.77 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in November 2017, according to Saudi Aramco.
Will Oil Rigs Today Be the Foundation for US Crude Oil Staying above $50?
The US oil rig count contracted by seven and was at 749 in the week ended September 15, 2017—the fifth-straight week without a rise in the oil rig count.
Cushing Inventories: Bullish or Bearish for Crude Oil Prices?
A market survey estimates that Cushing crude oil inventories has risen between September 8 and September 15.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Hit a 1-Year Low
Russia’s crude oil production averaged ~11.0 MMbpd in 2016—the highest level in 30 years. Russia’s crude oil production could average 11.1 MMbpd in 2017.
Will Saudi Arabia’s Production and Exports Support Crude Oil Futures?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose by 50,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 10.20 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in July 2017 compared to the previous month.
Could the Oil Rig Count Threaten Bullish Bets on Oil Prices?
The US oil rig count rose by three to 768 for the week ended August 11, 2017.
Could US Crude Oil Fall to $46 This Week?
On August 10, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) active futures implied volatility was 27.3%–2.2%, which was below its 15-day average.
EIA Upgrades US Crude Oil Production Estimates for 2017 and 2018
The EIA released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on August 8, 2017. It estimates that US crude oil production could average 9.35 MMbpd in 2017.
US Gasoline Inventories Fell, Supported Gasoline Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell 1.1% or by 2.5 MMbbls (million barrels) to 227.7 MMbbls on July 21–28, 2017.
What We Could Expect for Oil Prices
Oil rig data The US oil rig count rose by two to 766 in the week ended July 28, 2017. Year-over-year, the oil rig count has surged by more than twofold, with US crude oil active futures gaining 22.7%. Since the high of 9.6 million barrels per day in the week ended June 5, 2015, […]
US Crude Oil Rig Count: Will Oil’s Gains Accelerate?
On a week-over-week basis, the oil rig count fell by one to 764 for the week ending July 21, 2017. The oil rig count has more than doubled on a YoY basis.
OPEC Spare Production Capacity Hit 2017 Low
The US Energy Information Administration estimated that OPEC’s spare crude oil production capacity fell by 170,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 2.01 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2017.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions in US Crude Oil Rose Again
Hedge funds increased their net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options rose by 36,834 contracts to 215,488 contracts on July 11–18, 2017.
Analyzing Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Export Strategy
On July 24, 2017, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister stated that the country would cut crude oil exports to 6.6 MMbpd in August 2017.
Will We Hit $48 for US Crude Oil Prices?
On July 20, 2017, US crude oil futures’ implied volatility was 27.2%, which was 4.2% below its 15-day moving average.
Oil Rigs: Oil Prices Could Make a U-Turn
The US oil rig count extended to 765 in the week ending July 14, 2017—a gain of two rigs compared to the previous week.
Near Record US Gasoline Demand: Are the Bulls Taking Control?
The EIA estimates that the four-week average for US gasoline demand rose 129,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9.7 MMbpd (million barrels per day) from July 7 to 14, 2017.
Rising Rigs: The Natural Gas Bear’s Best Friend
In the week ended July 7, 2017, the natural gas rig count gained five and went to 189. Compared to the same period in 2016, it has more than doubled.
US Gasoline Inventories Support Gasoline, Crude Oil Futures
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell 1.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 235.6 MMbbls between June 30, 2017, and July 7, 2017.
Why Oil Prices Could Plunge
The US oil rig count rose by seven to 763 in the week ended July 7, 2017. This was the rig count’s highest level since April 10, 2015.
Is the US Capturing Crude Oil Market Share in China and India?
India is the third-largest crude oil consumer after the US and China. India is expected to import crude oil from the US by October 2017.
Will Saudi Arabia Cause Colossal Damage for Crude Oil Futures?
According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production hit 10.7 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2017.
Miscellaneous Key Dates for the Energy Sector, July 10–14, 2017
There are several important events this week that could affect crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices.
Will Oil Rigs Accelerate Natural Gas’s Fall?
In the week ended June 30, 2017, the natural gas rig count rose by just one to 184. However, on a year-over-year (or YoY) basis, the natural gas rig count has more than doubled.
Oil Rigs: Will Oil Prices Rise More?
On June 23–June 30, the US oil rig count fell by two to 756. The fall was marginal, but it was the first fall after rising for 23 consecutive weeks.
Hedge Funds’ Net Bullish Positions on US Crude Oil
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options by 1,136 contracts to 133,606 contracts on June 20–27, 2017.
How Long Can US Gasoline Inventories Support Crude Oil Bulls?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 0.1 MMbbls to 241 MMbbls on June 16–23, 2017.
US Gasoline Demand: Positive or Negative for Crude Oil?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that weekly US gasoline demand rose by 547,000 bpd or 6% to 9,816,000 bpd on June 9–16, 2017.
Will US Crude Oil Hit $40 Next Week?
On June 22, 2017, WTI crude oil (USO) (OIIL) active futures’ implied volatility was 29.7%, up 1.7% compared to its 15-day average.
Rising Oil Rigs: Oil Bears’ Friend, Oil Bulls’ Foe
In the week ended June 16, 2017, the US oil rig count was 747, its highest level since the week ended April 17, 2015.
Where Will US Crude Prices Settle?
On June 15, 2017, US crude oil active futures’ implied volatility was 27.9%.