Credit Suisse Nassau Branch

The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be ~4.0 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2016, which is the start of the 2016–2017 heating season.

As we saw in the previous part of this series, Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) stock price decreased strongly by ~6.0% for the week ended January 19. Natural gas (UGAZ)(DGAZ)(UNG) prices fell marginally by ~0.5%.

US natural gas inventories are 23.2% higher than their five-year average. High inventories could limit the upside potential for US natural gas prices.

PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose 10% between December 8 and December 14, 2016.

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions on US natural gas futures and options contracts by 2,511 contracts to 81,683 on August 15–22, 2017.

US natural gas rigs rose 35% in the last 12 months, while US natural gas prices (UNG) fell 20% during this period.

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu this winter from November 2016 to March 2017.

November natural gas futures contracts are following their long-term downward trend. Prices are trading close to the key support of $2 per MMBtu.

US natural gas inventories are 22.1% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could pressure natural gas prices.

Natural gas prices rose due to cold weather forecasts and the bullish US natural gas inventory report. Prices hit a 2016 and two-year high.

From November 9–16, 2016, natural gas December futures rose 2.8%. The US Dollar Index rose 1.8% during that period.

US natural gas inventories are 4.6% above their five-year average. However, the surplus is shrinking.

Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) stock price rose ~4.9% for the week ending December 29. Even natural gas (UGAZ) (DGAZ) (UNG) prices moved to the upside.

Long-term bearish momentum is dragging natural gas prices to record lows. All the fundamental drivers are supporting the bearish traders.

The long-term bearish momentum could cause natural gas prices to fall, and the next support for natural gas prices could be seen at $2 per MMBtu.

The EIA estimated that monthly US natural gas consumption rose by 19 Bcf per day to 91 Bcf per day in December 2016—compared to the previous month.

US natural gas inventories are 25% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could also limit the upside for US natural gas prices.

Range Resources’ 4Q17 revenue In 4Q17, Range Resources (RRC) reported revenue of ~$600 million, lower than Wall Street analysts’ estimate of ~$626 million. RRC’s revenue rose ~24% from its 3Q17 revenue of ~$482 million and ~2% from its 4Q16 revenue of ~$590 million. Reasons behind Range Resources’ higher revenue in 4Q17 Range Resources’ higher revenue could be attributed […]

Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.

US natural gas (GASL) futures contracts for January delivery were below their 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages on December 14, 2017.

US natural gas inventories are currently 11% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could weigh on US natural gas prices.

NYMEX natural gas (GASL) (DGAZ) futures contracts for July delivery rose 4.3% and settled at $3.06 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on June 15.

World Bank forecast that US natural gas prices will average $2.30 per MMBtu in 2016, $3.00 per MMBtu in 2017, and $3.50 per MMBtu in 2018.

The consensus of rising natural gas inventory could push natural gas prices lower than the key resistance of $2.30 MMBtu.

US natural gas prices were on a rollercoaster ride in 2016. February 2017 natural gas futures contracts fell and closed at $3.72 per MMBtu on December 30.

The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be at 1,940 Bcf by the end of March 2017—20.0% higher than the five-year average.

NYMEX natural gas futures contracts for March delivery fell 0.27% to $2.58 per MMBtu on February 15, 2018.

For 4Q17, Southwestern Energy (SWN) reported revenues of ~$809 million—higher than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$803 million.

According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production increased by 0.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.7 Bcf per day on January 11–17, 2018.

According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production fell 3.7% to 74 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day between December 28, 2017, and January 3, 2018.

A larger-than-expected withdrawal in US natural gas inventories compared to historical averages would help natural gas prices this week.

US natural gas inventories fell by 182 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,444 Bcf on December 8–15, 2017, according to the EIA.

According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production rose 0.9% to 76.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on December 14–20, 2017.

Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock has fallen more than 9% in the last five trading sessions.

The EIA estimated that US natural gas inventories rose by 2 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,695 Bcf on November 24–December 1, 2017.

US natural gas production rose by 0.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.9 Bcf per day on November 9–15, 2017. Production rose 0.4% week-over-week.

The weather is expected to be colder than normal next week. High demand could have a bullish impact on natural gas prices.

The EIA estimates that US gas inventories rose by 15 Bcf (billion cubic feet) or 0.4% to 3,790 Bcf on October 27–November 3, 2017.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 65 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,775 Bcf on October 20–27, 2017.

US natural gas consumption rose by 7.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per to 70.37 Bcf per day in July 2017 compared to August 2017.

For 3Q17, Wall Street analysts expect Southwestern Energy (SWN) to report revenues of ~$759 million.

Market data provider PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production fell by 0.2 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.3 Bcf per day from September 21 to 27, 2017.

US natural gas (DGAZ)(UGAZ) futures contracts fell 0.3% to $3.00 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 2:00 AM EST today.

October US natural gas (UNG) (FCG) futures contracts fell 4.5% to $2.95 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on September 21, 2017.

Market data provider PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.2 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 73.9 Bcf per day from September 7 to 13.

On September 14, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly US natural gas inventory report.

The EIA estimates that US natural gas prices could average $3.06 per MMBtu in 2017—1.4% lower than previous estimates.

The EIA estimates that monthly US natural gas consumption rose by 0.11 Bcf per day or 0.2% to 62.77 Bcf per day in June 2017—compared to May 2017.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 30 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,155 Bcf on August 18–25, 2017.

Hurricane Harvey hit the Gulf Coast region on August 26, 2017. It’s estimated to be one of the biggest hurricanes to hit the US in the last 50 years.

October natural gas (BOIL) (UNG) futures contracts trading on NYMEX rose 2% to $3.04 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on August 31, 2017.

US natural gas futures contracts for September delivery were trading flat at $2.96 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 1:45 AM EST on July 28, 2017.

The EIA estimates that monthly US dry natural gas production fell by 2.37 Bcf per day, or 3.2%, to 71.6 Bcf per day in April 2017—compared to March 2017.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 57 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,945 Bcf on June 30–July 7, 2017.

August natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ) (UGAZ) futures contracts trading in NYMEX fell 0.67% to $2.96 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on July 13, 2017.

The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 10.0 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,061 Bcf between March 31, 2017, and April 7, 2017.

US natural gas inventories are at 2,242 Bcf for the week ending March 10, 2017—21.4% higher than their five-year average.

According to data from the EIA released on March 9, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (FCG) (DGAZ) inventories fell by 68 Bcf during the week ending March 3, 2017.

From February 8, 2017, to February 15, 2017, natural gas March futures fell 6.4%. The US dollar (UUP) (UDN) (USDU) rose 0.9% during that period.

The EIA estimates that US natural gas consumption could average 75.4 Bcf per day in 2017 and 76.9 Bcf per day in 2018.

The EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report on January 26. US natural gas inventories fell by 119 Bcf to 2,798 Bcf from January 13–20, 2017.

In the past four trading sessions, natural gas futures and the US Dollar Index moved in opposite directions one out of four times.

From December 14 to December 21, 2016, natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ) January futures rose 0.1%. The US Dollar Index (UUP) (UDN) rose 1.2% during that period.

From March 3 to December 14, the US Dollar Index and natural gas prices moved in opposite directions based on the closing prices in 108 trading sessions.

Lower natural gas prices have a negative impact on the profitability of oil and gas producers such as EXCO Resources (XCO), WPX Energy (WPX), and Antero Resources (AR).

Between October 12 and October 19, 2016, natural gas November futures fell ~1.2%. The US Dollar Index was flat during this period.

From May 2–August 31, the US Dollar Index and natural gas prices moved in opposite directions based on the closing price in 43 out of 85 trading sessions.

On May 2, 2016, the US Dollar Index closed at 92.6—its lowest level year-to-date. Between May 2 and August 24, the US Dollar Index rose by ~2.3%,

In the week ended August 5, 2016, temperatures were higher than the forecast for the week. That boosted natural gas prices on August 3.

The larger-than-expected rise in US natural gas inventories weighed on natural gas prices on July 14 and July 15.

In this series, we’ll take a look at the effect of declining natural gas prices on Encana. We’ll also cover its May 17 Presentation for Investors on its Montney Resource Play.

When El-Niño occurs, it keeps the sea surfaces warmer. This causes milder-than-normal cold temperatures across the sea and some parts of the US.

The US natural gas inventory rose by 15 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,493 Bcf for the week ended March 18, 2016.

April natural gas futures contracts trading on NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) rose by 1.1% and closed at $1.81 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on March 24, 2016.

Cold winter weather could drive natural gas prices higher. But on the other hand, record natural gas stocks will push natural gas prices lower.