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Continued from Part 2: Where is supply growth going for dry bulk ships?
The significance of scrapping level and shipping rates
For a short- to medium-term assessment of supply and demand dynamics, investors can look towards ship scrappage (retirement) activity. The rate at which companies scrap ships often reveals whether the dry bulk shipping industry is facing excess capacity. When excess capacity pressures the shipping industry, firms will often retire older ships to relieve pressure on shipping rates and maintenance costs.
Scrapping activity shows falling trend
On September 6, the total number of ships retired since IHS Global Limited began collecting the data in 2005 rose to 2,157 ships—an increase of six vessels from 2,151 ships on August 30. So far, shipping companies have broken up 313 ships since the beginning of this year, which represents 3.71% of the 8,428 available ships reported at the beginning of the year. The eight-week rolling average number of ships being scrapped stood at 6.25 vessels, which remains in a downtrend from the peak seen in 2012. This scrappage has helped keep the supply increase lower, particularly among Supramax vessels, supporting shipping rates.
Falling scrappage is actually positive, not negative
At the start of the year, 6% of existing vessels were above the age of 25–the age that companies estimate to be the average useful life of each ship. Although companies often report the number of ships available to scrap as evidence of limited supply concern, the reality is that several ships do celebrate birthdays beyond 25. Companies are also unlikely to scrap ships just because they’re old. Companies will often try to hold on to old vessels as long as they can find customers to use them. So although the industry can scrap another 200 ships, investors should see falling scrappage as a positive sign that shipping rates are rising.
Current trend positive for dry bulk shipping companies
As long as scrappage activity falls, it’s a positive indication that managers expect rates to rise in the future. The current trend is positive for dry bulk shipping companies such as DryShips Inc. (DRYS), Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX), Safe Bulkers Inc. (SB), Navios Maritime Partners LP (NMM), and Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM).
© 2013 Market Realist, Inc.