Terra Nitrogen Co LP
Sales Drivers and What to Expect for Fertilizer Companies
The world has a problem that’s actually good for the fertilizer industry. This is the world’s population, which is ever-growing, as is food consumption.
Fertilizer Update for the Week Ending March 30
CF Industries emerged as the biggest gainer last week and rose as much as 1.0% to $37.7. Most fertilizer stocks continue to deliver losses YTD.
Urea Prices Fell Last Week, Remain Higher in 2018
On average, urea prices in the Middle East fell as much as 4% week-over-week to $237 per metric ton from $247 per metric ton a week ago.
Fertilizer Affordability Improves in the Week Ended March 16
Fertilizer affordability tracks how the prices of key NPK fertilizers moved in comparison with the key fertilizer-consuming crops such as corn, soybean, and wheat.
How Nitrogen Margins for Fertilizer Companies Trended in 4Q17
In the recent quarters, fertilizer companies (MOO) have rationalized their output and costs to sustain the downward momentum in fertilizer prices that seemed to keep going down.
Comparing Producers’ Nitrogen Fertilizer Realized Prices in 4Q17
For years, nitrogen prices have been trending lower, but in 4Q17, ammonia, urea, and UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) realized prices finally improved.
How Nitrogen Shipments of These Fertilizer Companies Trended
In 4Q17, the overall nitrogen shipments of the five companies discussed below moved lower year-over-year.
4Q Earnings Analysis: How These 8 Fertilizer Companies Stacked Up
With the 4Q17 earnings season behind us, it’s time to take a closer look at how fertilizer companies (MOO) performed in the recent quarter.
Urea Prices Rose Last Week
Urea prices for the standard grade in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US and in Egypt saw the steepest weekly change last week.
How the Fertilizer Affordability Index Trended Last Week
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index was unchanged week-over-week at 0.7x.
Urea Price Update for the Week Ending February 16
Last week, urea price movements were broadly positive with prices in the Middle East experiencing strong gains week-over-week.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved in Week Ending February 16
CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer among fertilizer stocks with a 6.7% rise last week to close at $3.18 per share.
How CF Industries’ Per-Ton Margins Performed in 4Q17
CF’s Ammonia segment’s gross margin per ton expanded from $1.00 per metric ton to $36.00 per metric ton.
How CF Industries’ Shipments Grew in 4Q17
During 4Q17, CF Industries’ Ammonia segment grew 58.0% year-over-year to 1.2 million metric tons.
Fertilizer Affordability Update for the Week Ending January 26
Last week, the fertilizer affordability showed some positive momentum week-over-week.
How Natural Gas Prices Performed Last Week
Lately, natural gas prices have experienced high volatility primarily due to the swing in weather in North America.
What Scotts Miracle-Gro Could Gain from Tax Cuts
SMG said it intends to pass on the benefits from tax savings to its employees by increasing salaries and through other programs.
Fertilizer Affordability Remains Stable amid Strengthening Prices
Fertilizer affordability has seen some tightening in the last couple of months.
How Natural Gas Prices Trended Last Week
In the week ending January 19, natural gas prices at Henry Hub remained elevated with the prices peaking at $5.46 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on January 16, 2018.
Urea Prices Fell Last Week
Nitrogen fertilizer prices remained volatile on the back of the volatility in the input prices of natural gas.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved Last Week
In the week ending January 19, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) rose 1%, and the broader market S&P 500 (SPY) also ended in positive territory with a gain of 1.2%.
Natural Gas Prices for the Week Ending January 12
Natural gas is one of the critical input materials needed for nitrogen and some phosphate-based fertilizers.
Urea Prices Were Positive Last Week, Remain a Concern
Urea is sold in the granular and prilled variety. In the week ending January 12, granular urea prices were broadly flat to positive week-over-week.
Are Rising Prices Affecting Fertilizer Affordability?
Recently, the Fertilizer Affordability Index has seen an upward trend.
DAP Prices Remained Strong in 1st Week of 2018
For the week ending January 5, 2018, DAP (diammonium phosphate) global prices at most locations were flat to positive with the exception of Saudi Arabia.
Why Natural Gas Rose Sharply Last Week
Natural gas is one of the key input components for gas-based nitrogen fertilizer producers (MOO)(MXI) such as CF Industries (CF), Terra Nitrogen (TNH), CVR Partners (UAN), and Nutrien (NTR).
Urea Prices Saw Good Start to 2018
In the week ending January 5, the prices for granular as well as prilled urea were broadly higher week-over-week.
A Review of CF Industries’ Margins
In the earlier parts of this series, we saw how CF Industries (CF) sales performed as a result of movements in fertilizer prices and shipment volumes.
Assessing the Shift in CF Industries’ Product Mix
In the earlier part of this series, we discussed how shipments impacted CF Industries’ (CF) sales. From our analysis, it’s clear that a rise in selling prices remains the most important growth catalyst for the company.
What 2018 May Hold for Nitrogen Prices
Nitrogen in 2018 Nitrogen prices remained weak for most of 2017, falling as much as 27% YoY (year-over-year). Ammonia, a fundamental nitrogen input, is further upgraded to nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and urea ammonium nitrate. Ammonia supply As shown in the above chart, ammonia capacity saw a net addition of five million metric tons, or […]
Nitrogen Fertilizer Input Cost: Natural Gas Prices Fell Last Week
For the week of December 6–13, 2017, natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub were broadly lower, according to the EIA.
Natural Gas Prices for Fertilizer: Week Ended December 8
According to the EIA (U.S Energy Information Administration), natural gas prices were broadly mixed from November 29 to December 6, 2017.
Fertilizer Prices Update: Week Ended December 8
CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer last week, rising 17.4% week-over-week to close at $3.70. CF Industries (CF) followed, rising 4.4% to close at $39.30.
How Tax Bill Could Impact Agribusiness Stocks
Since the Senate approval of the tax bill, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) is up by 48 basis points, and the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) is up by 74 basis points.
What’s the Natural Gas Price Forecast?
Henry Hub (MOO) natural gas prices saw a negative week-over-week trend, a continuation of the trend from the previous week.
PotashCorp’s Outlook on Nitrogen Supply, Demand, and Prices
When we talk about nitrogen, China gets the most attention because of its large exports that have put downward pressure on prices in recent years.
How Natural Gas Prices at Henry Hub Moved Last Week
Last week, the average weekly natural gas prices were broadly lower week-over-week at the Henry Hub in the US (MOO).
Key Fertilizer Updates for the Week Ending November 24
Last week, Intrepid Potash (IPI) emerged as the top gainer in the industry with its stock closing 5.6% higher at $3.78.
Natural Gas Prices Impacted Nitrogen Fertilizers Last Week
The average weekly natural gas prices at Henry Hub for the week ending November 17 moved higher week-over-week.
Urea Price Update for the Week Ending November 17
Last week, urea prices at the Yuzhny location fell as much as 4.1% week-over-week to $256 per metric ton from $267 per metric ton a week ago.
Latest Update on Fertilizer Price Movements
In the week ending November 17, most of the agricultural fertilizer stocks ended in negative territory. Intrepid Potash emerged as the biggest loser.
CF Industries’ 3Q17 Nitrogen Shipments Compared to Peers
CF Industries (CF) saw the steepest growth in nitrogen shipments in 3Q17. Shipments rose 33% YoY to 4.4 million metric tons.
EV Energy Partners Was the Top MLP Gainer Last Week
EV Energy Partners (EVEP), Mid-Con Energy Partners MCEP), and Legacy Reserves (LGCY) led the MLP top gainers last week ending November 3.
How Natural Gas Price Movements Could Affect Fertilizer Producers
Last week, Henry Hub natural gas prices saw a week-over-week improvement.
How Did Fertilizer Stocks Perform Last Week?
In the week ending November 3, agricultural fertilizer stocks were broadly positive.
Why CF Industries’ Realized Prices Kept Trending Lower in 3Q17
In the previous part of this series, we saw that the 3Q17 shipments for CF Industries (CF) saw meaningful growth year-over-year.
Why CF Industries’ Sales Grew 28% in 3Q17
In 3Q17, CF Industries (CF) sales saw growth across each of its five segments year-over-year. Overall, the company’s sales grew 28% year-over-year to $870 million from $680 million in 3Q16.
Analysts’ Views on CF Industries in October 2017
CF Industries (CF) has managed to deliver a strong performance over the last month, rising 12.5% as of October 16, 2017.
Nitrogen Input: Natural Gas Prices Fell Last Week
The natural gas prices at Henry Hub in the US fell 4.1% week-over-week from a weekly average of $2.96 per MMBtu to a weekly average of $2.84 per MMBtu.
Urea Prices Continued to Rise in the Week Ending October 13
On average, granular urea prices were flat to positive week-over-week. In NOLA (New Orleans), granular urea prices rose as much as 3.5% week-over-week.
Nitrogen Supply and Demand Impacts Prices
Nitrogen prices have been subdued for most of this year—compared to a few years ago. The global market continues to experience excess capacity.
Nitrogen Input: How Natural Gas Prices Moved Last Week
So far this year, Henry Hub natural gas prices have hovered around $3 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Are Urea Prices Cooling Off?
After an impressive runup in the past four months, urea prices appear to be cooling off.
Natural Gas Prices Rose for the Week Ending September 29
In the EIA’s recent outlook, natural gas prices are expected to average $3.29 per MMBtu in 2018—compared to an average of $3.05 per MMBtu in 2017.
Urea Prices Gained Significant Momentum Last Week
In the week ending September 22, urea prices gained significant upward momentum. The gain was favorable news for nitrogen fertilizer producers.
Terra Nitrogen Makes It to Top 10 Agricultural Chemicals Stocks
Over the recent decade, Terra Nitrogen has risen 55.2% and underperformed the S&P 500 Index’s rise of 69.2% over the same period.
Top MLP Gainers in Week Ended September 8
EV Energy Partners (EVEP) was the top MLP gainer last week, which ended on September 8, 2017. It rose 13.9%.
Fertilizer Prices Were Mainly Positive Last Week
The week ending September 1 was broadly positive for the agribusiness sector. The week was positive for fertilizer stocks.
Top MLPs Losers Last Week, Ended September 1
Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO) was the top MLP loser last week, which ended September 1, 2017. It fell 6.3%.
Behind the Outlook for Nitrogen: When Will Prices Rise?
The higher supply of nitrogen fertilizer was the key reason that producers experienced lower selling prices YoY.
Monoammonium Phosphate Prices for Week Ended August 25
MAP prices reached a peak of $400 per metric ton earlier this year, but they’ve been on a downward trajectory ever since.
Natural Gas Prices Kept Rising in Week Ended August 25
Last week, natural gas prices at Henry Hub saw a positive momentum week-over-week. They rose as much as 3.2% to a weekly average of $2.95 per MMBtu.
Urea Prices Pause for Week Ended August 25
Last week, which ended August 25, 2017, the price of urea paused on its upward momentum.
Reading Nitrogen Price Realizations in 2Q17: Fertilizer Players Compared
Calendar 2Q17 remained subdued for the nitrogen fertilizer pricing environment. Cheap energy costs have driven capacity buildups and flattened the cost curve.
CF’s Margins Contracted in All Segments in 2Q17
During 2Q17, CF Industries (CF) saw its gross margins fall in each of its segments except the AN (ammonium nitrate) segment.
CF Industries’ Realized Prices Continued to Fall in 2Q17
While CF Industries’ (CF) shipments rose in 2Q17, price realizations continued to disappoint.
What You Need to Know about CF Industries’ 2Q17 Earnings
CF Industries (CF) reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.10 in 2Q17, which was in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.01 per share.
Capital Expenditure Expectations for CF Industries in 2Q17
CF Industries (CF) is expected to see a significant reduction in its capital expenditure (or capex) year-over-year (or YoY) in 2Q17 and for the next four quarters.
Granular Urea versus Prilled Urea Last Week
Last week, granular urea prices moved higher, which helped bring some relief to urea producers. But the falling global ammonia prices remained a challenge.
CF Industries: The Strongest Nitrogen Player
CF Industries (CF) is the largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer in North America. The company also has a controlling stake in Terra Nitrogen (TNH).
Mixed Granular Urea Price Momentum: First Week of July
Last week, granular urea price momentum was broadly mixed on a week-over-week basis, while prilled urea prices failed to show any momentum.
Fertilizer Prices Keep Extending Losses into July
For the week ended July 7, the agribusiness sector performed broadly in the negative territory.
How China’s Fertilizer Export Sector Is Changing
China is the largest consumer of nitrogen fertilizers, but it produces most of it within its borders. Urea is Chinese farmers’ top choice.
Fertilizer Input: Natural Gas Prices for Week Ended June 30
Week-over-week, natural gas prices at the Henry Hub in the United States were broadly negative for the week ended June 30, 2017.
How Lower Fertilizer Prices Are Hurting Intrepid Potash
Realized prices for fertilizer companies are the main culprit for the dismal performances among companies in the agricultural fertilizer sector.
Is the Worst Over for CF Industries? Analysts Weigh In
CF Industries (CF) is gaining momentum in terms of capacity additions and lowering its production costs. Is the worst over for the company?
Why Urea Prices Remain under Pressure
For each of the past two years, there have been net urea capacity additions of ~22 million metric tons. During the same period, ~14 million metric tons of capacity were shut down.
How Urea Prices Continued to Fall despite Capacity Shutdowns
Urea prices have fallen YTD (year-to-date) as of June 23, 2017. They’re now trading even lower than the levels they saw in the corresponding week in 2016.
What’s the Price Impact of the Chinese Urea Capacity Shutdown?
Fertilizer prices are one of the key determinants of the survival of fertilizer companies such as CF Industries (CF), PotashCorp (POT), Intrepid Potash (IPI), and Terra Nitrogen (TNH).
Why Chinese Urea Capacity Is Shutting Down
The demand for nitrogen fertilizers (XLB) remains robust, as we can see in the latest earnings releases of CF Industries, PotashCorp (POT), Agrium (AGU), and Terra Nitrogen (TNH).
Understanding the Urea Cost Curve for CF Industries
Not only did CF Industries’ earnings fall year-over-year (or YoY) in 1Q17, its margins were also significantly lower YoY. To understand why, let’s dig deeper into the cost curve.
A Near-Term Outlook for Nitrogen Fertilizers’ Capacity Additions
In this article, we’ll discuss the outlook for the capacity additions of ammonia, the fundamental nitrogen fertilizer, in the near term.
How Shipment Growth Is Keeping CF Industries Alive
In this article, we’ll explore the impact of the second key driver of CF Industries’ sales: shipments.
What’s Driving CF Industries’ Sales Growth?
CF Industries (CF) reports its sales in five segments: UAN (urea ammonium nitrate), Granular Urea, Ammonia, AN (ammonium nitrate), and Other Nitrogen Products.
What Are CF Industries’ Price Targets and Recommendations?
CF Industries (CF) closed at $27.3 per share on June 9, which was 13.4% lower than its levels at the beginning of this year.
Why Did Natural Gas Prices Fall Last Week?
Last week, natural gas prices at Henry Hub fell by an average of 3.1% week-over-week to $3 per MMBtu from $3.2 MMBtu a week ago.
Nitrogen Prices Have Been Lower in Recent Quarters
In recent quarters, nitrogen fertilizer prices have been lower YoY including in 1Q17. Overall nitrogen prices continue to impact producers’ profitabilities.
Analyzing Nitrogen Fertilizer Shipment Growth in 1Q17
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) saw the highest growth in shipments. Its shipments rose 45% YoY to 598 thousand metric tons from 411 thousand tons a year ago.
Fertilizers: Natural Gas Price Forecasts for Week Ended May 5
While lower natural gas prices on the back of abundant availability provide positive direction for these companies, pressures from China remain an issue.
Fertilizer Stocks and Commodities: Update for Week Ended May 5
Last week was broadly negative for agricultural fertilizer stocks. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 53 basis points, and SPY rose 42 basis points.
CF Industries’ Realized Prices Fell in 1Q17
Prices continue to remain under pressure as a result of excess supply in the market.
How Agrium’s Margins Fared in 1Q17
During 1Q17, Agrium experienced a slight expansion in gross margins from 20% in 1Q16 to 21% in 1Q17.
Fertilizer Affordability Fell for the Week Ending April 28
For the week ending April 28, the Fertilizer Affordability Index fell slightly to 0.58x—compared to 0.59x the previous week.
Fertilizer Stock and Commodities Update: Week Ending April 28
The week ending April 28, 2017, was broadly positive for agricultural fertilizer stocks. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) rose by 126 basis points.
A Look into Analysts’ Estimates for CF Industries’ EBITDA
Analysts estimate CF Industries’ EBITDA to reach $302 million, which could grow slightly from $300 million in 1Q16.
CF Industries’ Sales Estimated to Rise in 2017
CF Industries earns most of its sales—about one-third—from its UAN segment, followed by its Ammonia and Granular Urea segments.
How PotashCorp’s Nitrogen Shipments Performed in 1Q17
PotashCorp’s Nitrogen segment sales fell ~11% YoY to $365 million, as compared to $412 million in 1Q16.
Natural Gas Prices Fell for the Week Ending April 21
Natural gas prices trended lower week-over-week for the week ending April 24. Summer months are usually less demanding for natural gas.
Analyzing Natural Gas Prices for the Week Ending April 7
Last week, as reported by the EIA, natural gas prices at Henry Hub rose 1.3% week-over-week to $3.03 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Granular Urea Prices Rose for the Week Ending April 7
Urea prices in the US Gulf NOLA rose 4.8% week-over-week to $197 per short ton. Prices in the Middle East rose 3.1% week-over-week to $200 per metric ton.