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US Natural Gas Inventory Has Been Rising since April 2015
Natural gas stocks rose by 9 Bcf to 4,009 Bcf for the week ended November 20, 2015. Natural gas inventory rose due to rising production and a mild winter weather forecast.
Rising Oil Inventories Spread Impacts Oil Prices
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by ~9.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in the week ending on February 10, 2017—compared to the previous week.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Hit Lowest Levels since 1940s: What’s Next?
The US crude oil rig count fell by ten to 362 rigs for the week ending April 1, 2016, which is the lowest level since the 1940s.
Weekly US Natural Gas Consumption Is Higher for the Second Week
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose marginally for the second straight week for the week ending June 15—compared to the previous week.
Recovery in Crude Oil Prices: What Are the Key Drivers?
The IEA released its monthly Oil Market report on January 19, 2017. OPEC crude oil production fell by 320,000 bpd to 33,090,000 bpd in December 2016.
Will Gasoline Inventories Impact Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices?
The API released its weekly inventory report on December 28, 2016. It estimates that US gasoline inventories fell by 2.8 MMbbls from December 16–23, 2016.
US Natural Gas Supplies Fell due to Drop in Imports from Canada
PointLogic reported that natural gas supplies fell by 1.1% to 79.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day for the week ending June 29, 2016, compared to the previous week.
Nordic Bank SEB Revises Crude Oil Price Forecasts
Leading Nordic bank SEB raised its Brent crude oil forecast to $48 per barrel for 2016 compared to its previous forecast of $44 per barrel.
How Does Gasoline Demand Impact Crude Oil Prices?
The EIA reported that US gasoline demand rose by 12,000 bpd to 9.8 MMbpd between July 15 and July 22. It rose by 0.12% week-over-week and 4.9% YoY.
Crude Oil Prices Are Steady Due to OPEC’s Production Cut
Crude oil prices pared gains in post-settlement trade on February 14 due to the API’s (American Petroleum Institute) bearish crude oil inventory report.
Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production: Will It Impact Oil Prices in 2017?
Figures from the EIA suggest that non-OPEC crude oil production rose by 350,805 bpd to 44.6 MMbpd in September 2016—compared to the previous month.
Will Crude Oil Prices Test $60 per Barrel?
Brent crude oil prices could trade between $35 and $40 per barrel in 2016 due to a stronger dollar, oversupply, and near-record US crude oil inventories.
Why Did Crude Oil and US Diesel Futures Diverge?
The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices rose 0.8% to $2.54 per gallon for the week ending December 26, 2016—compared to the previous week.
Crude Oil Traders Are Closely Watching These Bearish Drivers
In the previous two parts of this series, we covered bullish drivers for crude oil prices. Now let’s look at some key bearish drivers for crude oil prices in 2016.
Crude Oil Market: Will Bullish Oil Traders Control 2017?
January WTI crude oil futures fell for the third straight day yesterday. Prices fell below the key psychological levels of $42 per barrel on November 30.
US Oil Inventories Spread Impacts Crude Oil Prices
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by ~6.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in the week ending January 27, 2017—compared to the previous week.
Key Bearish Factors for Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices have rallied more than 40% since the lows reached in February 2016. Traders could square off their long positions as part of profit-booking.
What’s in the Cards for US Natural Gas Prices in August?
US natural gas inventories are 23.2% higher than their five-year average. High inventories could limit the upside potential for US natural gas prices.
Crude Oil Prices Fell below the 200-Day Moving Average
Crude oil prices were $50–$54 per barrel between December 2016 and early March 2017. Prices broke below $50 per barrel on March 9, 2017.
Cushing Inventories Rise for the First Time in 12 Weeks
Cushing is the largest crude oil storage hub in the United States. A market survey estimates that Cushing inventories fell from August 4 to August 11.
Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Could Balance in 2017
The EIA estimates that the global crude oil supply could outstrip demand by 1.1 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in 2H16—compared to 2.2 MMbpd in 1H16.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Sixth Time in 7 Weeks
US distillate inventories increased for the sixth time in the last seven weeks. The inventories rose ~11% in the last seven weeks.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the Ninth Time in 10 Weeks
June diesel futures contracts rose 0.7% to $1.47 per gallon on May 3, 2017. Prices rose due to the fall in distillate inventories.
How Did Crude Oil Prices React to the Last 3 OPEC Meetings?
OPEC’s meeting in Vienna is scheduled on Thursday, June 2, 2015. There aren’t any optimistic cues that the group will reach an agreement to cap production.
Iran’s Crude Oil Exports Could Impact Crude Oil Prices
The rise in crude oil export capacity suggests that Iran’s getting ready for a massive increase in crude oil production in 2018.
Analyzing Libya’s Crude Oil Production
A Reuters survey estimates that Libya’s crude oil production fell by ~20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 670,000 bpd in February 2017—compared to January 2017.
Why Did Crude Oil Prices Rise?
On February 9, 2017, US crude oil futures contracts for March delivery closed at $53.00 per barrel—an ~1.3% rise compared to the previous trading session.
Record Oil at Sea: Crude Oil Prices Hit a 10-Week Low
The US benchmark WTI crude oil futures contracts for December delivery fell by 2.9% on November 11, 2015. Crude oil prices hit lows seen in August.
Cushing Inventories Have Fallen 10% in the Last 10 Weeks
Cushing crude oil inventories have fallen 10% in the last ten weeks. A better-than-expected fall in Cushing inventories could support US crude oil prices.
Oil Traders Bet about Crude Oil Prices over the Next 12 Months
A Bloomberg survey of 15 senior oil traders and executives showed that US crude oil prices could trade at $40–$60 per barrel over the next 12 months.
Russia’s Central Bank: Crude Oil Prices Could Hit $40 per Barrel
Brent crude oil prices could fall as low as $40 per barrel by the end of 2017 if OPEC doesn’t extend major producers’ production cut deal in 2H17.
Despite Oversupply, World Bank Upgrades Crude Oil Price Forecast
The IEA (International Energy Agency) estimates that the crude oil market is closer to balancing in 2H16.
Natural Gas Prices Trade Close to Key Support Levels
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that natural gas prices could average around $2.69 per MMBtu in 2015 and $3 per MMBtu in 2016.
Analyzing Crude Oil Price Forecasts for 2Q17
A market survey of 31 banks shows that US WTI crude oil prices could average $54.5 per barrel in 2Q17. In 2Q17, prices could break the February 2017 high.
Will Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance in 2017?
The EIA thinks that global crude oil supply could outstrip demand by 1.1 MMbpd in 2H16. It expects crude oil supply and demand to reach a balance in 2017.
Major Banks Predict Crude Might Trade Like This For the Rest of 2016
December 2016 WTI crude oil contracts are trading at a discount of $4 per barrel to December 2017 WTI crude oil contracts—the widest gap in almost 8 months.
Will US Crude Oil Prices Outperform in 2H17?
WTI crude oil (BNO) (PXI) (UCO) (XOP) prices have fallen 18% year-to-date. They have fallen 7% in the past year due to bearish drivers.
OPEC’s Crude Oil Production: Key for Crude Oil Traders?
A Bloomberg survey estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 315,000 bpd to 32.21 MMbpd in May 2017—compared to the previous month.
What to Expect from Libya’s Crude Oil Production in September
The EIA estimates that Libya’s crude oil production fell by 145,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 860,000 bpd in August 2017—compared to the previous month.
What Investors Can Expect from Crude Oil Prices
April WTI crude oil prices are at a three-month low as of March 13. So far, crude oil prices and broader markets such as the S&P 500 are diverging in 2017.
Planned Refinery Maintenance Could Impact Crude Oil Prices
The strong US dollar, high crude oil and gasoline inventories, and weak demand cues from Japan and Europe will pressure crude oil prices.
US Refinery Demand Impacts Crude Oil Inventories
US refineries operated at 93.4% of their operable capacity in the week ending May 5, 2017. The rise in refinery demand is bullish for crude oil prices.
The EIA Upgrades US Natural Gas Forecast for 2016
US natural gas inventories are 22.1% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could pressure natural gas prices.
Energy Calendar for Crude Oil and Natural Gas
All of the events on the energy calendar influence crude oil and natural gas prices. Uncertainty in the prices can impact oil and gas producers’ earnings.
US Gasoline Inventories Fell Less, Pressured Gasoline Prices
The EIA released its weekly crude oil report on May 24, 2017. US gasoline inventories fell by 0.8 MMbbls to 239.9 MMbbls on May 12–19, 2017.
Analysts: Summer Weather Could Drive Natural Gas Prices Higher
US natural gas inventories are 19% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could keep a lid on US natural gas prices.
Why Morgan Stanley Expects Crude Oil Prices to Trend even Lower
As of the end of April, crude oil prices had rallied by almost 70% since the lows of February 2016. But prices were still ~60% lower than in June 2014.
What’s the Long-Term US Natural Gas Price Forecast?
In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA forecast that the US natural gas supply-demand balance could average around 2.9 Bcf per day in 2016.
Will Crude Oil Prices Test 3 Digits Again?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil prices will average $41.16 per barrel in 2016 and $51.58 per barrel in 2017.
Why Isn’t the Dollar Steering Natural Gas Prices?
Between May 2 and August 10, the US Dollar Index and natural gas prices moved in opposite directions based on the closing price in 35 out of 70 trading sessions.
Gasoline Inventories and Consumption Impact Crude Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories rose by 2.8 MMbbls to 259.1 MMbbls from February 3–10. US gasoline inventories are at the highest levels ever.
Crude Oil Prices Rose Due to the Supply Outage
NYMEX-traded WTI crude oil futures contracts for December delivery rose by 3.8% on November 3. Crude oil prices rose due to a supply disruption in Brazil.
Why US Crude Oil Production Could Hit a Record High in 2018
US crude oil production According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), US crude oil production rose 13,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,658,000 bpd between November 10 and 17, 2017. Production, which rose for the fifth straight week, has been pressuring oil (SCO) prices in the last few weeks. Production has risen 977,000 bpd (11.3%) year-over-year. Any […]
Will US Natural Gas Prices Rise in 2016 and 2017?
In its March STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) report, the EIA forecast that US natural gas prices could average $2.25 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.02 per MMBtu in 2017.
Natural Gas Prices Are Impacted by the US Dollar
Between May 3 and May 10, 2017, natural gas (GASX) (FCG) (GASL) June futures rose 2%. The US dollar (UUP) (UDN) (USDU) rose 0.5% during that period.
Crude Inventories Rose as US Refinery Crude Demand Fell
The EIA reported that US refinery crude oil demand fell by 255,000 barrels per day to 16,597,000 bpd between July 29 and August 5.
US Natural Gas Production Rose Last Week
The EIA estimates that US dry natural gas production could average 73.7 Bcf per day in 2017 and 77.7 Bcf per day in 2018.
Why Did Brent and WTI Crude Oil Prices Hit Monthly Lows?
US benchmark WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for May delivery fell by 3% and closed at $35.7 per barrel on April 4, 2016.
North American Oil and Gas Producers’ Debt Rose in 2015
AlixPartners surveyed 134 public companies in the US and Canada. The surveys showed that they had a cumulative long-term debt of more than $353 billion in 2015.
Major Banks Downgrade Crude Oil Prices despite OPEC’s Deal
A Wall Street Journal survey from major banks predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $56 per barrel in 2017—$1 per barrel less than the last survey.
Will US Crude Oil Futures Rise above $50 per Barrel This week?
September US crude oil prices are on a rollercoaster ride in 2017 due to bullish and bearish drivers. US crude oil prices are near a two-month high.
How Does the US Dollar Drive Crude Oil Prices?
The US Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 100.5 on January 27, 2017. It also pressured crude oil prices. However, the US dollar is trading near two-month lows.
US Crude Oil Prices Are Near a 2-Week Low
US crude oil prices fell in post-settlement trade on April 18, 2017, after the API’s (American Petroleum Institute) crude oil inventory report.
US Crude Oil Futures: Key Support and Resistance
June WTI crude oil (IEZ) (USL) (PXI) futures contracts fell 0.3% to $49.4 per barrel in electronic trade at 4:05 AM EST on April 26, 2017.
Key Dates for the Energy Sector, July 10–14, 2017
There are several important events this week that could affect crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices.
Oil Prices Passed $50—a Key Psychological Number
US crude oil prices briefly breached the psychologically significant mark of $50 per barrel.
Why Goldman Sachs Raised Its Crude Oil Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs expects that US WTI crude oil prices will average $55 per barrel in 1H17—compared to past estimates of $47.5 per barrel for the same period.
Crude Oil Prices Pressure Gasoline Futures
April gasoline futures fell 3% to $1.67 per gallon on March 1, 2017. Prices fell despite the fall in US gasoline inventories.
Did Weekly Natural Gas Production and Consumption Rise?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that US natural gas production could average ~79.6 Bcf per day and ~81.3 Bcf per day in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
Will US Crude Oil Futures Rise above $50 per Barrel This Week?
US active crude oil (PXI) (ERY) (FXN) futures hit $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016—the lowest level in more than 13 years.
Why the Ruble Is on the Rise
The recovery of oil prices in the latter half of 2016 has helped the Russian ruble to appreciate along with improved exports.
Oil on the Verge of Collapse: What the Inventory Spread Indicates
US commercial crude oil inventories rose ~8.2 MMbbls in the week ending March 3, 2017, reaching a historic high level that goes back to at least 1982.
OPEC Mania Is Back: Will Crude Oil Soar?
US crude oil rose on November 18 due to the market’s belief that OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) members might cut their output.
US Crude Oil Production Hit a 10-Month High: What’s Next?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil production rose by 24,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,001,000 bpd between February 10 and February 17, 2017.
Will Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Support Crude Oil Prices?
On May 2, the API (American Petroleum Institute) released its weekly crude oil inventory report.
EIA and IEA Expect US Crude Oil Production to Rise in 2017
The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will rise by 110,000 bpd to 9,000,000 bpd in 2017—compared to 2016.
Weather and Inventory Are Making Natural Gas Traders Bearish
Bearish natural gas traders will likely bet on mild weather and could raise their short positions as demand could drop during the peak period from November to March.
Will US Crude Oil Prices Stay above $50 per Barrel?
WTI crude oil prices have fallen almost 12.0% year-to-date due to the rise in production for the United States, Libya, Nigeria, Brazil, and Canada in 2017.
Will Crude Oil Prices Test $80 per Barrel?
Raymond James & Associates estimates that WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices will average $80 per barrel by the end of 2017.
US Gasoline Inventories: Highest Level since July 2016
A larger rise in gasoline inventories limited the upside for gasoline prices. February gasoline futures rose 2.6% to $1.6 per gallon on January 11, 2017.
EIA Forecasts Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance by 2H17
November West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts rose 1.1% and were trading at $50.9 per barrel in electronic trading at 5:35 AM EST on October 14.
US Dollar and China: Crude Oil Prices Fell for the Third Day
December WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.0% on November 6, 2015. Crude oil prices fell due to the appreciating US dollar and weak demand data from China.
Why US Crude Oil Output Hit a High from January 2016
US crude oil output is at the highest level since January 25, 2016. The rise in crude oil output is the biggest bearish driver for crude oil prices in 2017.
How Much the US Dollar Is Impacting Natural Gas Now
Between April 26 and May 3, 2017, natural gas June futures fell 1.3%. The US dollar rose 0.2% during that period.
Saudi Arabia and US Inventories Pressure Crude Oil Prices
April WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (PXI) futures contracts fell 1.4% and settled at $47.72 per barrel on March 14, 2017.
Russia and OPEC: Key Bearish Catalysts for 2016
Russia’s energy minister reported that Russia is targeting to produce ~10.9 MMbpd of crude oil in 2016 compared to 10.7 MMbpd in 2015. It’s the highest in 30 years.
Geopolitical Tension Could Drive Brent and US Crude Oil Futures
Brent crude oil futures fell 0.7% to $49.61 per barrel on July 4, 2017. August WTI crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (PXI) futures contracts rose in electronic trading.
US Distillate Inventories Support Diesel and Crude Oil Futures
US distillate inventories fell for the third time in the last five weeks. Inventories fell 1.4% for the week ending July 14, 2017.
Crude Oil Prices Fell below 200-Day Moving Average
So far, crude oil prices and broader markets such as the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) are diverging in 2017. SPY has risen 4.9% YTD (year-to-date).
API’s Crude Oil Inventories Could Support Crude Oil
A market survey estimates that US crude oil inventories would have fallen by 3.7 MMbbls (million barrels) on July 7–14, 2017.
Fall in US Refinery Demand and Imports Impacted Inventories
US refineries operated at 91.5% of their operable capacity in the week ending May 5, 2017. The US refinery demand fell for the second consecutive week.
Will US Crude Oil Futures Test a 3-Year High?
US crude oil (USO) futures hit $60.73 per barrel in early morning trade on January 2, 2018—the highest level since June 2015.
Major Banks Expect Crude Oil Prices to Trend Lower in 3Q16
Barclays estimates that Brent crude oil prices will decline further in 3Q16 due to lower refinery margins and seasonal demand weakness.
Global Crude Oil Supply Outages Near 5-Year Low
The US Energy Information Administration estimates that global crude oil supply outages fell by 247,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 2.0 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2017.
EIA Raises Estimates for US Crude Oil Production in 2018
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil production rose by 36,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,235,000 bpd between March 31 and April 7, 2017.
Strong US Gasoline Demand Supports Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
The EIA reported that the four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 6,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,770,000 bpd from August 5–12, 2016.
Natural Gas Prices Are Trading above Key Moving Averages
US natural gas inventories are 25% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could also limit the upside for US natural gas prices.
US Dollar Hits Lowest in 8 Months and Supports Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices have been on a roller coaster ride. WTI oil prices have rallied 52% since their lows from February 2016.
Crude Oil Futures: What Could Drive Volatility This Week?
US crude oil (DWT) (UCO) futures hit $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017—the highest level in nearly three years.
How Lower Refinery Margins Impact Crude Oil Prices
Gasoline production increased due to lower crude oil prices in 2015 and 1H16. This stemmed from higher refinery margins for oil refiners.
