How Inflation Becomes a Core Determinant of the Price of Gold
The possible interest rate hike is taking a lot of market participants’ attention. Many policymakers are also focusing on inflation numbers.
Miscellaneous
Is the Dollar-Gold Relationship Getting Stronger?
Precious metals have been closely associated with the movement of the US dollar over the last few months.
Will the Inventories Spread Impact US Crude Oil?
US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.9 MMbbls in the week ending November 17, 2017—0.5 MMbbls more than the market’s expected fall.
Is Oil’s Rise Coming to a Halt?
On November 28, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (USL) active futures fell 0.2% and closed at $57.99 per barrel. All eyes are on the outcome of OPEC’s meeting.
Is Oil Bullishness Boosting Oil ETFs?
Between November 17 and November 24, 2017, the United States Oil Fund LP (USO), which tracks WTI crude oil near-month futures, rose 3.9%.
How Are Natural Gas ETFs Adjusting to Fall in Natural Gas Prices?
Between November 17 and November 24, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 8.8%.
Will OPEC’s Meeting Help Crude Oil Bulls or Bears?
OPEC’s meeting will be held on November 30, 2017. Reuters said that OPEC might extend the production cuts for nine more months.
Weather Impacts the US Natural Gas Market
January US natural gas (DGAZ) (UNG) futures contracts fell 1.4% to $3.01 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 1:05 AM EST on November 24, 2017.
Analyzing the Downside for Natural Gas Next Week
On November 24–30, natural gas active futures could close between $2.89 and $3.23 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) with a probability 68%.
Energy Sector Saw a Mixed Performance This Week
With the mixed performance from natural gas and crude oil, the energy sector is showing a modest increase this week.
Analyzing Trends in Mining Stocks’ Correlation
Gold remains the most dominant among the four precious metals. It’s crucial that investors analyze how the miners are moving versus precious metals.
Are Oversupply Concerns Gripping Natural Gas Prices?
On November 22, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL) January 2018 futures closed at a discount of ~$0.2 to January 2019 futures.
What Led to the Recent Rebound in Precious Metals?
After a substantial slump on Monday, gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5% on Tuesday and closed at $1,281.7 per ounce.
How the Higher Dollar Has Affected Precious Metals
Precious metal slump All four precious metals saw a down day on Monday, November 20. Gold fell 1.6% to $1,275.30 per ounce, after touching a one-month high on Friday, November 17. The fall in precious metals was most likely due to the rise in the US dollar. The US Dollar Index rose 0.45% on Monday. Gold, silver, platinum, […]
A Quick Look at Miners’ Technical Details
As of November 16, 2017, Alamos Gold, First Majestic Silver, Sibanye Gold, and AngloGold Ashanti had call-implied volatilities of 46.9%, 54.6%, 63%, and 40.9%, respectively.
Saudi Arabia Could Help the Global Oil Market
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to the US fell to 525,000 bpd in October 2017—the lowest in 30 years. Exports fell due to ongoing output cuts.
Are Natural Gas ETFs Doing Any Better than Natural Gas?
Between November 10 and November 17, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 3.2% while natural gas active futures fell 3.6%.
Natural Gas Futures Spread: Analyzing Oversupply Concerns
On November 15, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) December 2017 futures traded at a discount of ~$0.1 to December 2018 futures.
Who’s Pro Gold and Who’s Not?
Geopolitical events like the tensions with North Korea helped drive the price of gold higher in September 2017.
Mining Stocks: Analyzing the Technical Details
In this part, we’ll concentrate on the technical readings of key mining stocks, including their call implied volatilities and RSI (relative strength index) levels.
Russian and US Crude Oil Exports Are Important for Oil Bears
US crude oil exports fell by 1,264,000 bpd or 60% to 869,000 bpd on October 27–November 3, 2017. Exports rose by 459,000 bpd from the same period in 2016.
US Dollar Could Pressure Crude Oil Futures This Week
The US Dollar Index rose 0.13% to 94.4 on November 13, 2017. It limited the upside for US crude oil (UWT) (DWT) prices on the same day.
Did Natural Gas ETFs Outperform Natural Gas Last Week?
Between November 3 and November 10, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose 8%, only 30 basis points above the gain in natural gas December futures.
What’s the Directional Trend in Key Miners’ Correlation?
AngloGold Ashanti has had the lowest correlation with gold this year, while Gold Fields has had the highest correlation with gold.
Futures Spread: Is the Oil Market Tightening?
On November 7, 2017, US crude oil (OIIL) December 2018 futures settled $2.08 below the December 2017 futures.
US Gasoline Demand Could Drive Crude Oil Prices Higher
The EIA estimates that weekly US gasoline demand rose by 147,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,461,000 bpd on October 20–27, 2017.
Russia’s Crude Oil Exports Could Pressure Oil Futures
Russia’s energy ministry estimates that the country’s crude oil exports rose 2% or by 160,000 bpd (barrel per day) in the first nine months of 2017.
Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories Could Impact Crude Oil Futures
December US crude oil (DWT) (DBO) futures contracts fell 0.56% to $56.88 per barrel in electronic trade at 1:10 AM EST on November 8, 2017.
US Natural Gas Inventories Could Help Natural Gas Futures
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 65 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,775 Bcf on October 20–27, 2017.
Behind the Correlations of Key Miners Today
On a YTD (year-to-date) basis, the correlations of the above mining stocks appear to be weak when compared with last year.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Rose in October
Russia’s crude oil production rose by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 10,930,000 bpd in October 2017—compared to September 2017.
US Gasoline Inventories Fell 18%, Bullish for Crude Oil
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US gasoline inventories fell by 4,020,000 barrels to 212.8 MMbbls on October 20–27, 2017.
Understanding the Natural Gas Futures Spread: Are Oversupply Concerns Rising?
On November 1, natural gas December 2018 futures settled $0.22 above December 2017 futures. On October 25, the futures spread was at a premium of $0.11.
Is the Oil Market Balancing?
On October 31, 2017, US crude oil (USO) December 2018 futures settled $1.4 below December 2017 futures.
The Importance of Knowing the Technicals of Mining Stocks
On October 30, 2017, ABX, AU, KGC, and IAG had call implied volatilities of 29.1%, 40.9%, 41.6%, and 44.3%, respectively.
Gauging Global Risk against Gold
All four precious metals rose on Monday, October 30, as multiple speculations in the market gripped investors’ attention.
US Crude Oil Inventories and Production Impact Crude Oil Prices
The market expects that US crude oil inventories could have fallen by 2.5 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 20–27, 2017.
Natural Gas versus Natural Gas ETFs Last Week
On October 20–27, natural gas (FCG) (GASL) (GASX) December futures fell 4.8%. During this period, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 4.1%.
Will Natural Gas Remain above $3 Next Week?
On October 26, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL) futures’ implied volatility was at 38.3%—3.4% above the 15-day average.
A Look at the Correlation Trends for Miners
Franco-Nevada and Silver Wheaton have seen an upward trend in their correlations with gold.
A Technical Analysis of Mining Shares in October
When investors look at mining stocks, it’s important that they do a technical analysis of the stocks.
What Mining Stocks’ Implied Volatility Tells Us
As of October 24, 2017, Silver Wheaton (SLW), Yamana Gold (AUY), Barrick Gold (ABX), and AngloGold Ashanti (AU) had implied volatility readings of 30.8%, 48.4%, 29.1%, and 40.9%, respectively.
Platinum Ratio Analysis: Which Way Is Platinum Moving?
The gold-platinum spread was ~1.38 on October 23. The RSI (relative strength index) level for the gold-platinum spread is now at 93.9.
Understanding the Natural Gas Futures Spread—And What It Means for Prices
On October 25, 2017, natural gas December 2018 futures closed $0.11 above the December 2017 futures.
How Mining Stocks Have Moved in October
On October 23, Alamos, First Majestic Silver, Sibanye Gold, and Gold Fields had call implied volatilities of 46.9%, 54.6%, 63%, and 40.4%, respectively.
Where Natural Gas ETFs Stood next to Natural Gas Last Week
Between October 13 and October 20, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) fell 2.2%, and natural gas November futures fell 2.8%.
Mining Shares: RSI Numbers and Implied Volatility
As of October 19, Sibanye Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines, Silver Wheaton, and Randgold Resources had implied volatility readings of 63%, 33.6%, 30.8%, and 25%.
Is US Natural Gas Production Bearish for Natural Gas?
US dry natural gas production will likely average ~73.6 Bcf/d in 2017. It will likely rise by 4.9 Bcf/d or 6.6% to 78.5 Bcf/d in 2018.
Will Natural Gas Fall to $2.7 Levels Next Week?
On October 19, 2017, natural gas futures’ implied volatility was 38.8%, 9.6% above its 15-day average.
Reading the Natural Gas Futures Spread: Rising Oversupply Concerns
On October 11, 2017, the futures spread was at a premium of $0.13. Between then and October 18, natural gas November futures fell 1.2%.