brent

Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA

Brent Nyitray has 18+ years of experience in the investment industry, primarily focused on the Real Estate Sector at a variety of hedge funds, including Elliot Management and Dellacamera Capital Management. Until 2004, Brent was a Managing Director at Bear Stearns, responsible for the European Risk Arbitrage trading desk in London. Brent earned an MBA in 1994 from the Simon Graduate School of Business with a 3.9 GPA. He was formerly a US Naval Officer.

Disclosure: I am in full compliance with all ethics and other policies for Market Realist research analysts. I am not invested in securities that I cover on Market Realist.

More From Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA

  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Mortgage rates fall as bonds sell off, affecting homebuilders

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 12 basis points as the ten-year yield rose 10 basis points, and TBAs sold off. With the refinance boom over, originators are overstaffed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Why analysts saw a slow week and a disappointing Black Friday

    The initial reports regarding Black Friday shopping look like we’re seeing the first actual decline in seven years.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae Attitudes about housing expected px appreciation
    Consumer

    Why consumers are more conservative about housing than the pros

    In the latest survey, consumers expect home prices to rise by 2.9% over the next 12 months. This is flat month-over-month and down 100 basis points year-over-year.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MRD RRC benefits of merger
    Miscellaneous

    What Will Arbs Think of the MRD-RRC Deal?

    This transaction is a classic merger arb core position. The companies are reasonably big and liquid and the deal makes strategic sense. It’s fairly safe.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Weekly Realist real estate roundup (Part 4)

    Back to Part 3 The recent bond market sell-off bumps up mortgage rates again Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why Bernanke and the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance, which increases their disposable income and helps stimulate economic growth. Lower […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Funds dot graph Mar
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    FOMC Meeting Should Be a Non-Event This Week

    The big event for investors will be the April FOMC meeting. Investors are assigning a 0% probability that the Fed will hike rates next week.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ALR ABT ABT basics
    Miscellaneous

    What You Need to Know about the Abbott Labs Side of the Alere-Abbott Merger

    Abbott Laboratories is a leading pharmaceutical company that also makes diagnostic products, nutritional products, and vascular products.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Toll Brothers Gross Margins
    Earnings Report

    Toll Brothers’ Gross Margins Fall on a Year-over-Year Basis

    In the fourth quarter of 2015, Toll Brothers’ (TOL) gross margins, excluding interest and write-downs, fell to 22.3% compared to 26.8% a year ago.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Personal Consumption Expenditures
    Real Estate

    Personal consumption jumps in August: We are spending money again!

    Personal income is the income a person receives from all sources. This includes wages and salaries, government transfer payments, other labor income, proprietor’s income, and rental income.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Mortgage Rates Rise as Bond Yields Increase

    Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market. The Fed’s plan to help the housing market started when it pushed rates lower to allow people to refinance.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Mortgage Refinance Applications Rise

    Mortgage refinance applications, as measured by the MBA Refinance Index, rose 16.7% from 1,693 to 1,902 for the week ending August 28.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Consumer

    Weekly economic recap – Dovish comments from the Fed

    The 10-year bond is the basis for all mortgage pricing Long-term interest rates are priced off the benchmark long-term bond, which is the ten-year Treasury. These days, the ten-year bond reacts to economic data through the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program, also known as quantitative easing (QE). As a general rule, economic data that shows […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Funds dot graph Mar
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    FOMC Meeting Is the Highlight of the Week Ahead

    This week contains some important data with housing starts, industrial production, and retail sales. The FOMC meeting will be the highlight on June 14 and 15.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///New Home Sales  year
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    New Home Sales Impressed Wall Street while GDP Disappointed

    The week ending May 27 was dominated by a big upward surprise in new home sales and a disappointing GDP revision on Friday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Fannie Mae securities rallied with bonds about 1/4

    The main action driving TBAs specifically seems to be out of Washington, between the Fed purchases and the government’s policies to drive origination.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MAC SPG spread
    Miscellaneous

    Simon Property Sends a Bear Hug Letter to Macerich

    Simon Property (SPG) has proposed to buy Macerich (MAC) for $91 a share, half of which will be cash and half of which will be SPG stock at a fixed ratio.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Why bonds rallied from the FOMC to a possible government shutdown

    The ten-year bond rallied throughout the week as the market digested the implications of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Commitee) meeting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Fall 5 Ticks

    The ten-year bond yield fell by 1 basis point for the week ending November 20. Ginnie Mae TBAs fell 5 ticks to go out at 103 25/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBS Yields
    Financials

    The end of the carry trade — Part 5

    Back to Part 4 Impact on mortgage REITS The Treasury Department Financial Stability Oversight Council report mentioned the mortgage REIT sector specifically as at risk for a convexity event. A convexity event comes into play when interest rates move sharply. Because borrowers can prepay their mortgage without penalty, mortgage-backed securities are difficult to hedge in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR consumer sentiment
    Consumer

    Consumer sentiment falls, another warning about the economy?

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important indicator of the consumer’s perception of the U.S. economy. Similar to other consumer confidence measures, it asks consumers about their views on the current economic conditions and their […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Lennar Revenues
    Consumer

    Lennar reports increases in units and prices in 2nd quarter 2014

    For the second quarter, Lennar reported $1.64 billion in revenues. This is an increase of 29% year-over-year. Homebuilding revenues increased 28%, to $1.6 billion from $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2013.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Caught a Bid on Last Week’s Bond Market Rally

    Like Fannie Mae TBAs, Ginnie Mae TBAs caught a bid and picked up 18 ticks to 104 17/32, underperforming Fannie Mae TBAs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MAC SPG MAC basics
    Miscellaneous

    Background on Macerich

    Macerich is in the second tier of large retail REITs. It’s a player in the community or power shopping center segment, along with Kimco Realty (KIM).

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Must-know: Why bonds rallied on weak economic and jobs reports

    Bonds followed through on last week’s rally with another rally. After closing out the prior week at 2.66%, interest rates moved lower in response to the weak first quarter GDP report.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment rate LT
    Financials

    Why pay attention to last week’s extremely important releases?

    Last week had some extremely important economic data, with the ISM report, construction spending, GDP, and the jobs report. The advance estimate of first quarter GDP came in at 0.1%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Sentiment
    Consumer

    Consumer Sentiment Lifts In December

    The performance of tenants is a critical driver of vacancy rates and returns. While mall REITs aren’t directly exposed to consumer spending, consumer spending is still a critical driver.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Index
    Consumer

    Homebuilder sentiment leaps in June

    The National Association of Homebuilder Sentiment Index is a closely-watched measure of future building activity The National Association of Homebuilders Sentiment Index measures the confidence of homebuilders. It gauges builder perceptions of current and future sales of single family residences and asks them to characterize them as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.”  It also asks the […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///New Home Sales  year
    Consumer

    Must-know: Why the future looks bright for homebuilders

    It’s important to remember that while growth is coming from distressed levels, current production is still well below historical averages.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///TFM APO comps
    Miscellaneous

    Could The Fresh Market Deal Become Competitive?

    The $28.50 purchase price was a high premium of over 24% to where The Fresh Market was trading on March 11, 2016—the day before the deal was announced.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Distressed Sales
    Consumer

    Distressed Home Sales Fall

    Distressed Home sales are tracked by CoreLogic in their monthly Market Pulse Distressed Sales and shadow inventory are closely related. Distressed sales include Real Estate Owned (REO) and short sales. REO sales are generally foreclosures, while short sales are below the current outstanding debt on the property. Distressed supply will put a damper on pricing as […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR household formation
    Real Estate

    Why household formation drives homebuilder demand (Part 2)

    Continued from Part 1 The state of the first-time homebuyer The first-time homebuyer has been in a difficult position post-crisis. Many college students graduated with high levels of student loan debt and grim job prospects. Given the harsh job market, many graduates decided to return to school, moved in with their parents, or moved in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Kansas City Fed
    Consumer

    Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Report shows moderating activity

    The general business conditions index slipped 4 points to +6, coming off the the best reading in two years in May. Interestingly, the reason for moderation in factory growth was attributed to a difficulty in finding qualified workers.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Why mortgage rates have been flat with the bond market, at 4.17%

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was flat at 4.17%, as the ten-year yield rose 1 basis point, while TBAs rallied. With the refinance boom over, originators are overstaffed

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GEVA ALXN LAL D
    Miscellaneous

    Backing Out of the Synageva BioPharma Deal, Part 3

    Things like acts of war and natural disasters aren’t MACS unless they disproportionately affect Synageva relative to other early-clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///LPS originations
    Financials

    Why low mortgage origination volumes are bad for REITs

    Mortgage originators have had a difficult time over the past year, as rates have begun rising. The increase in interest rates pretty much stopped the refinance boom in its tracks.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///RAD_WBA comps
    Miscellaneous

    Could the Rite Aid–Walgreens Merger Get Competitive?

    In the Rite Aid–Walgreens merger, Walgreens is paying about 0.6x trailing-12-month revenues and 13.6x trailing-12-month EBITDA.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Why Did Bonds Barely React to the FOMC Minutes?

    On July 6, the Fed released the minutes from the June FOMC meeting. The Brexit vote mainly overshadowed anything that came out of the June FOMC meeting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///TWC CHTR election
    Miscellaneous

    Choosing the Proper Election in the Time Warner Cable Deal

    Time Warner Cable (TWC) shareholders have a choice in the transaction. They can elect to receive $100 cash plus .5409 shares of Charter (CHTR) or $115 plus .4562 shares of Charter.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs Rise with the Bond Market

    For the week ending August 12, 2016, Fannie Mae TBAs ended at 103 24/32—up 4 ticks for the week. The ten-year bond yield fell by 8 basis points to 1.51%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY leverage
    Financials

    Recommendation: REITs are getting bullish—should you?

    2013 was a very difficult year for mortgage REITs, as the Fed finally began to lighten its footprint in the mortgage market by reducing asset purchases.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADT APO Comps
    Miscellaneous

    Could the Apollo-ADT Transaction Get Competitive?

    The $42 purchase price was a high premium of over 50% to where ADT (ADT) was trading on February 12, 2016, the Friday before the deal was announced.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Inventories Spike In November, Portending Weak December Sales

    Sales fell 0.2% in November. Inventories increased 0.2%. Interestingly, the inventory build was with the retailers, not the manufacturers.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HPY GPN transforming the model
    Miscellaneous

    Parsing the Heartland–Global Payments MAE Clause, Part 3

    Let’s continue our discussion on the Heartland–Global Payments merger. The MAE clause is one of the first things that arbitrageurs look at in a merger agreement.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Nonfarm Payrolls
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Jobs Report Postponed until Friday, May 8

    The jobs report should have gone out last Friday. But the BLS decided to postpone it until this Friday, May 8. Unless the report is unusually good, the bond market will probably take it in stride.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Nonfarm Payrolls
    Financials

    Why strong payroll growth is shaping REIT and homebuilder stocks

    We had quite a few important economic releases last week, starting with construction spending, which came in lower than expected. But the prior month was revised upward in a big way.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Initial Jobless Claims
    Financials

    Initial jobless claims jump

    Initial jobless claims rose to an annualized rate of 360,000 for the week ended May 10th Initial jobless claims are one of the few labor market indicators that are released every week. Unemployment is a profound driver of economic growth, and persistent unemployment has been the Achille’s heel of this recovery. While it seems like […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Empire State Manufacturing Survey
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Empire State Manufacturing Rebounds

    The General Business Conditions Index shows that Empire state manufacturing has rebounded. Of those surveyed, 33% reported better conditions.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Retail Sales
    Financials

    Why real estate investors should focus on overseas events

    The bond market has been reacting strangely to domestic reports lately, which probably means something international is causing some sort of flight to safety.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///SLXP ENDP Xifaxan
    Miscellaneous

    Important Indications: The Salix Situation Is Competitive

    What sort of process did Salix run in January? Did it only solicit a few potential buyers? It must have, since Endo made an unsolicited offer and the bidding is now public.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Mortgage Apps LT
    Real Estate

    Good credit conditions help commercial REITs like Boston Properties

    Increased credit availability is extremely important to commercial REITs like Simon Property Group (SPG), Boston Properties (BXP), Kilroy (KRC), Vornado (VNO), and S.L. Green (SLG).

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Lots of Real Estate Numbers ahead: Here’s What You Need to Know

    This week will have a lot of valuable data for real estate investors. We have some important earnings this week too.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Government Spending
    Consumer

    Does the economy need a government spending shot in the arm?

    Do we need a new New Deal? Construction spending doesn’t have to be simply residential (or private construction). Public construction also matters (however, it’s less than half of private construction dollars). The use of federal construction dollars to increase demand in the economy has been an issue of tremendous debate, with one side believing that […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR Retail Sales
    Consumer

    Retail sales increase 0.2% in July, homebuilder opportunity ahead

    Retail sales data gives analysts insight into the strength of the consumer Consumption is the biggest driver of the U.S. economy and accounts for 70% of GDP. Consumption has been relatively subdued since the recession began, as Americans have boosted their savings rate and spent only on essentials. The real estate bubble drove consumption in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///TWC CHTR overview
    Miscellaneous

    Time Warner Cable and Charter Merger: What Could Stop the Deal?

    Between Time Warner Cable and Charter Communications, the MAC clause lays out the circumstances under which Charter can back out of the deal.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Twos Tens
    Financials

    Strong economic data is causing the yield curve to steepen

    The shape of the yield curve matters almost as much as the absolute level of interest rates to financial companies As a general rule, financial companies (banks, REITs) borrow short and lend long. What this means is that they lever their balance sheet by borrowing at short-term interest rates and generally invest in longer-maturity assets, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Miscellaneous

    Fannie Mae TBAs Rally with the Bond Market

    For the week ending April 1, Fannie Mae TBAs ended at 105 2/32. The ten-year bond yield, tradable through TLT, fell by 5 basis points to 1.7%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Capacity Utilization
    Real Estate

    A rebound in capacity utilization helps office REITs like SL Green

    While most people don’t think of industrial data affecting office REITs, it does influence the top-line growth of commercial REITs like SL Green (SLG).

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  GDP forecast
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    October FOMC Minutes Show the Economy Is Improving

    According to the October FOMC minutes, the Fed members noted that industrial production had fallen, which they attributed to the rise in the US dollar.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///VNO FFO
    Real Estate

    Why does Vornado report an increase in funds from operations?

    Many REITs use funds from operations, including office REITs like Vornado (VNO), S.L. Green (SLG), and Boston Properties (BXP) as well as retail REITs like Simon Property (SPG) and General Growth Properties (GGP).

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Spending
    Consumer

    Why construction spending pulls back in June

    Construction spending is just off its post-recession high, but it’s still depressed—current levels equate to mid-2003 spending levels—construction spending peaked at $1.2 trillion in March, 2006.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR IBD TIPP
    Consumer

    Economic optimism rebounds, but it still remains depressed

    The IBD/TIPP Optimism Index increased by 3 points to 41.4 versus 38.4 in October. It’s well below its 12-month average of 45.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Consumer

    What to watch for in real estate next week

    The week ahead Earnings season is pretty much over. Only five companies will report next week; nobody related to real estate is reporting. Next week is not all that heavy data-wise, although we will get the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index and Pending Home Sales. The Case-Schiller data will be from March, which should begin […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Government Spending
    Consumer

    Must-know: Can the government do something for the economy?

    There has been a tug-of-war between the left-wing prescription of using the government to cushion the blows of a difficult economy and the right’s version of “let the markets clear.”

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR KBH
    Consumer

    KB Home swings to a profit and its turnaround stays on pace

    Unlike some of the other builders, KB is a turnaround story. The company believes its strategic focus on first-time and move-up homebuyers is finally beginning to pay off.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR consumer confidence
    Financials

    Consumer confidence ticks down as Americans fret the economy

    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 79.7, from an upward-revised 81.8 in August. (Consumer confidence in 1985 was 100.)

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae Attitudes about housing expected px appreciation
    Consumer

    Consumers are tempering their home price appreciation expectations

    The 2.3% home price expectation is much lower than the 6%–7% forecast we’re seeing out of the National Association of Realtors and the mid single-digit forecast we’re seeing from most Wall Street professionals.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DHI Gross Margins
    Earnings Report

    D.R. Horton’s Gross Margins Fall Slightly

    Like most other builders, D.R. Horton has been reporting lower gross margins due to sticker shock. Home prices have been increasing, but wage growth has been stagnant.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Spending
    Consumer

    Construction Spending Fell in June

    In June 2016, private construction fell 0.6%, and public construction fell 0.6% month-over-month.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Consumer

    GDP Will Be the Highlight This Week

    We’re nearing the end of August—many investment professionals will be watching markets from the beach. The second revision to Q2 GDP will be out on Friday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ISM PMI
    Consumer

    ISM manufacturing survey shows more manufacturing expansion

    Overall increases in business activity and consumption are starting to drive more business for homebuilders.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Financials

    Why mortgage rates declined after the FOMC maintained its course

    Interest rates fell sharply across the board as the Fed voted to maintain its current rate of asset purchases. The market was betting heavily that the Fed would begin to reduce purchases.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Financials

    The Fed maintains its policy on reinvesting QE assets

    The Fed’s decision to reinvest QE assets in the markets affects REITs. It keeps a bid under TBAs, and it supports MBS values in general.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Foreclosure Completions Fell in November: What Does It Mean?

    Foreclosure completions fell by 4,000 units to 33,000 in November, according to CoreLogic. Completions fell 19% YoY (year-over-year).

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment Rate
    Consumer

    Why the FOMC minutes and weak payroll data drove REITS and builders

    Last week, we had two important data points with the FOMC minutes from the December meeting and the Employment Situation report on Friday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed dot graph Dec
    Financials

    December FOMC Statement Cheers Stock Investors

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve ended its September FOMC meeting. It changed its language regarding interest rate normalization going forward.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///IGTE CAP identity
    Miscellaneous

    What Kind of Return Will the IGATE–Capgemini Spread Yield?

    To turn this into a reasonable return, you’re looking at a July close. This isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but it could be tough, especially since there’s a shareholder vote.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Rates
    Consumer

    Must-know: Why mortgage rates rose slightly as bonds sold off

    Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Manufacturing activity keeps improving in the Mid-Atlantic region

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MRD RRC comps
    Miscellaneous

    Will the MRD-RRC Deal Get Competitive?

    Range Resources’ (RRC) offer of $15.75 per share was a 17% premium to Memorial Resource Development’s (MRD) price before the deal was announced.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Business inventories rise slower than sales, good for activity

    This series focuses on industrial and manufacturing releases that will affect the real estate sector. Since homebuilders are highly cyclical, housing analysts watch the manufacturing data closely.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Sales fell, increasing business inventories in August 2014

    Business inventories are important economic drivers, especially when they build. Historically, recessions start with a buildup of inventory.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Toll Brothers Geo footprint
    Earnings Report

    Geographic Results for Toll Brothers in Fiscal 2Q16

    In Toll Brothers’ North segment, the ASP (average selling price) rose from $630,000 to $705,000 in fiscal 2Q16.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Manufacturing Production
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Construction Supply Production Increases In December

    Construction supplies increased 1.4% in December, a standout number. This might portend a more vibrant building season in 2015.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Real Estate

    Foreclosure Completions Drop In October

    Since foreclosures represent a process that may or may not wind up with the bank owning the home, foreclosure completions are a better indicator of foreclosure activity than foreclosure starts.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed dot graph Dec
    Financials

    Stocks fall and bonds rally in the FOMC statement

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve ended its September FOMC meeting. It changed its language regarding interest rate normalization going forward.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Hourly Earnings
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Wage Growth Could Be Picking Up

    Average hourly earnings rose by 9 cents on a month-over-month basis in October and were up 2.4% YoY (year-over-year) to $25.20. However, wage growth is still barely outpacing inflation.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing starts
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Last Week’s Housing Starts Came In Stronger than Expected

    Last week we had some stronger-than-expected economic data with housing starts and building permits topping 1.1 million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Employment Rises, Labor Force Participation Rate Remains Unchanged

    The unemployment rate has been falling, so why doesn’t the average citizen feel better about the economy? The reason is the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.8% in November.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Price Index
    Consumer

    Investor outlook: Consumer price inflation meets the Fed’s target

    This report will probably hold the hawks on the Fed at bay and allow them to continue to maintain ultra-low interest rates. The Fed wants to see annual inflation of about 2%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NFIB Small Business Optimism
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Economic Data Will We See This Week?

    The week after the jobs report is usually very data-light, and this week is no exception. None of the economic reports this week will be market-moving.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///SPG FFO
    Real Estate

    Simon Property increases funds from operations and keeps dividend

    Occupancy percentage increased to 96.5% from 95.1% a year ago—an increase of 140 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing starts
    Financials

    Must-know: What to watch for in real estate this week

    Mortgage real estate investment trusts (or REITs) like American Capital Agency (AGNC) and Annaly (NLY) will focus on data that will move the bond market.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Real Estate

    Must-know: Thinking about quantitative easing going forward

    The Fed currently supports $4 trillion in assets with about $55 billion in equity. Under any other entity, that would be considered an unthinkable leverage ratio.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: Should REIT investors fear an accelerated taper?

    Last week, we had some stronger-than-expected data with housing starts and some of the industrial production data. Does that mean the Fed will accelerate tapering?

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Must-know: Why the jobs report slammed Ginnie Mae TBAs

    Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report was the catalyst for a heavy sell-off in the bond market. The ten-year bond sold off by 15 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Import Price Index
    Financials

    Import prices fall in May

    Import prices are an important driver of inflation The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its U.S. Import and Export Price Indices monthly. The report keeps track of import prices by locality, type, and fuel/non-fuel. It also separates commodities and non-commodities. Commodity prices tend to be more volatile than non-commodity prices, so it makes sense to […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NFIB Small Business Optimism
    Real Estate

    Why small business optimism continues to recover slowly

    Small business accounts for roughly half of the U.S. gross domestic product (or GDP) and jobs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  GDP forecast
    Financials

    Why has the recovery taken so long to arrive?

    The recovery hasn’t been satisfying. Due to consumption and consumer deleveraging, the necessary spending isn’t generated to pull the economy out of its slow growth pattern.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Fannie Mae TBAs Fell by 9 Ticks

    Fannie Mae TBAs ended the prior week at 103 17/32. They fell nine ticks to go out at 103 8/32 for the week ending December 18.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA House Price Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    US Home Prices Rise 5.1% Year-over-Year

    In January 2015, home prices grew 0.3% month-over-month, up 5.1% year-over-year. Prices are now within 3.5% of their April 2007 peak.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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