Analyzing Crude Oil Prices in 2016 and 2017
Crude oil prices
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (BNO) (XLE) (IEZ) (RYE) (XOP) (PXI) futures contracts for February delivery rose 1.5% and were trading at $53.1 per barrel in electronic trade at 5:10 AM EST January 17, 2017. For more on crude oil (ERY) (ERX) (USL) (USO) (UCO) and the dollar, read Part 1 of the series.
Interested in IYE? Don't miss the next report.
Receive e-mail alerts for new research on IYE
Crude oil’s lows in the last 12 months
US crude oil settled at $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016. Crude oil prices hit 13-year lows due to the following:
- record OPEC crude oil production
- record Russian oil production
- high global crude oil and refined products inventories
- record US crude oil production in 2015
As of January 16, 2017, crude oil prices rose 99.4% from their 2016 lows. Higher crude oil (IYE) (IXC) (FENY) (SCO) prices have a positive impact on producers’ earnings such as ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Northern Oil & Gas (NOG), and Triangle Petroleum (TPLM).
Key bearish drivers for crude oil in 2017
- US production
- US crude oil inventories at a 30-year seasonal record high
- Donald Trump’s energy policy
- Rising Libyan and Nigerian crude oil production
- OECD crude oil inventories
- Iran’s crude oil production
- Strong dollar
Crude oil’s highs in the last 12 months
US crude oil prices settled at $54.1 per barrel on December 28, 2016—the highest since July 14, 2015. As of January 16, 2017, crude oil prices are 3.4% below their highs.
Key bullish drivers for crude oil 2017
- successful implementation of major oil producers’ production cut deal
- India and China’s crude oil demand
- US gasoline demand
A Reuters poll estimated that Brent and US WTI crude oil prices will average $57.01 per barrel and $55.23 per barrel in 2017, respectively. In the last part of this series, we’ll look at some crude oil price forecasts.
In the next part of the series, we’ll look at Cushing crude oil inventories and their impact on crude oil prices.