Key trends from the July 2014 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey (Part 1 of 4)
Why REITs focus on the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
The Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
Fannie Mae puts out a monthly National Housing Survey that measures consumers’ attitudes about housing and the economy. In many ways, it’s similar to the consumer confidence indices. However, the majority of the questions relate to real estate.
Homebuilders like Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) use the survey data to measure consumers’ attitude towards future home price appreciation, which helps—or hinders—risk-taking. Mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and PennyMac (PMT) will use the survey data to help forecast prepayment speeds and also to gauge consumer sentiment and its expected effects on the economy.
The survey asks a number of questions, including the following:
- Do you think the economy is on the right track or the wrong track?
- Looking ahead one year, do you expect your personal financial situation to get much better, somewhat better, stay the same, get worse, or get much worse?
- Looking back over the past year, has your personal financial situation gotten much better, somewhat better, stayed the same, gotten worse, or gotten much worse?
- In general, do you think it’s a very good time, a somewhat good time, a somewhat bad time, or a very bad time to buy a house?
- In general, do you think it’s a very good time, a somewhat good time, a somewhat bad time, or a very bad time to sell a house?
- During the next 12 months, do you think home prices in general will go up, go down, or stay the same?
- By what percent do you expect home prices will change over the next 12 months?
- During the next 12 months, do you think home rental prices will go up, go down, or stay the same?
- By what percent do you expect rental prices to change over the next 12 months?