BTC iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Why a Change in Inventory Could Make Oil Bulls Happy
According to the EIA’s report on July 18, US crude oil inventories rose by ~5.8 MMbbls to ~411.1 MMbbls in the week that ended on July 13.
Concho Resources: The Fourth-Lowest Energy Performer in XLE
In the first half of 2018, CXO fell from its 2017 close of $150.22 to $138.35—a moderate decrease of ~8.0%.
Anadarko Petroleum: XLE’s Third-Strongest Stock
This year, Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has been the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLE) third-strongest stock.
A Fall in Oil Inventories Might Support Oil’s Rise
According to the EIA’s report released on May 16, US crude oil inventories fell by ~1.4 MMbbls to ~432.4 MMbbls in the week ending May 11.
Why US Crude Oil Inventory Levels May Fall
According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), in the week ended May 4, US crude oil inventories fell by ~2.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to ~433.8 MMbbls.
Natural Gas Market Could Be Pricing In a Supply Deficit
On January 16, 2018, the gap between natural gas’s February 2018 futures and February 2019 futures was $0.07, or the futures spread.
The Top 5 Upstream Companies Based on Return on Equity
The company with the highest trailing 12-month ROE (return on equity) as of 3Q17 is Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) with an ROE of 52.1%.
Natural Gas: Are Winter Demand Fears Rising?
On January 2, 2018, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) (FCG) February 2018 futures settled $0.025 less than February 2019 futures.
Are US Distillate Inventories Bearish for Oil Prices?
US distillate inventories rose by 1,667,000 barrels or 1.3% to 129.4 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 24–December 1, 2017.
Will Crude Oil Futures Trend Higher after OPEC Meeting?
The American Petroleum Institute will release its crude oil inventory report on Tuesday, December 5, 2017.
Crude Oil Prices Are Positive before OPEC’s Meeting
US crude oil futures for January delivery rose 0.3% to $57.47 per barrel at 1:10 AM EST on November 30, 2017. Prices rose ahead of OPEC’s meeting.
Cushing Inventories Could Push WTI Crude Oil Futures Higher
The EIA estimated that Cushing’s crude oil inventories fell by 1,827,000 barrels or 2.9% to 61 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 10–17, 2017.
Are Oversupply Concerns Gripping Natural Gas Prices?
On November 22, natural gas (UNG)(BOIL) January 2018 futures closed at a discount of ~$0.2 to January 2019 futures.
The Relationship between US Crude Oil Inventories and Oil Prices
Estimates for US crude oil inventories The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on November 22, 2017. It reported that US crude oil inventories fell 1.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 457.1 MMbbls between November 10 and 17, 2017. Inventories were 31.8 MMbbls (6.5%) lower than in the same period in 2016. The market anticipated […]
US Crude Oil Exports and Drilling Activity Impact OPEC
According to the EIA, US crude oil exports rose by 260,000 bpd to 1,129,000 bpd on November 3–10, 2017. Exports rose 30% week-over-week.
Natural Gas: OPEC’s Meeting Could Impact Supply and Demand
US natural gas production rose by 0.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.9 Bcf per day on November 9–15, 2017. Production rose 0.4% week-over-week.
Will US Crude Oil and Gas Rigs Pressure Natural Gas Futures?
Baker Hughes will publish its US crude oil and natural gas rig count report on November 17, 2017. The rigs were flat at 169 on November 3–10, 2017.
Natural Gas Futures Spread: Analyzing Oversupply Concerns
On November 15, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) December 2017 futures traded at a discount of ~$0.1 to December 2018 futures.
US Gasoline Inventories Are above the 5-Year Average
The EIA estimates that US gasoline inventories rose by 894,000 barrels or 0.4% to 210.4 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 3–10, 2017.
Russian and US Crude Oil Exports Are Important for Oil Bears
US crude oil exports fell by 1,264,000 bpd or 60% to 869,000 bpd on October 27–November 3, 2017. Exports rose by 459,000 bpd from the same period in 2016.
Unexpected Build in US Crude Oil Inventories Pressures Oil Futures
The EIA (or US Energy Information Administration) released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on November 8, 2017.
US Crude Oil Exports: Will They Affect OPEC’s Production Cut Deal?
On November 7, 2017, the difference between Brent crude oil (BNO) active futures and US crude oil (USO) active futures, or the Brent-WTI (West Texas Intermediate) spread, was $6.50.
Futures Spread: Is the Oil Market Tightening?
On November 7, 2017, US crude oil (OIIL) December 2018 futures settled $2.08 below the December 2017 futures.
US Dollar Helped the Crude Oil Bull Market
The US Dollar Index fell 0.25% to 94.62 on November 6, 2017. It benefited US crude oil (USL) (DBO) prices on the same day.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Surpass Production
US natural gas consumption rose by 8.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 64.5 Bcf per day on October 26–November 1, 2017.
US Distillate Inventories Are near a 3-Year Low
US distillate inventories fell by 302,000 barrels to 128.9 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 20–27, 2017. It’s the lowest level since April 10, 2015.
US Crude Oil Inventories Fell 15%: Good News for Oil Bulls
The EIA estimates that nationwide crude oil inventories fell by 2,435,000 barrels to 454.9 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 20–27, 2017.
Understanding the Natural Gas Futures Spread: Are Oversupply Concerns Rising?
On November 1, natural gas December 2018 futures settled $0.22 above December 2017 futures. On October 25, the futures spread was at a premium of $0.11.
US Crude Oil Exports Could Be at a Tipping Point
On October 31, 2017, Brent crude oil (BNO) active futures were ~$7 above US crude oil (UCO) futures.
Is the Oil Market Balancing?
On October 31, 2017, US crude oil (USO) December 2018 futures settled $1.4 below December 2017 futures.
US Crude Oil Production: Will It Cap Oil Prices in 2018?
US crude oil production rose by 1,101,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,507,000 bpd on October 13–20, 2017. Production has risen by 1,003,000 bpd or 11.8% YoY.
Gasoline Inventories: US Crude Oil Futures Hit July 2015 High
December WTI crude oil (USO) (SCO) (USL) futures contracts rose 0.55% to $54.68 per barrel in electronic exchange at 2:15 AM EST on November 1, 2017.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions in US Natural Gas Hit 3-Week High
The CFTC (or US Commodity Futures Trading Commission) will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report on Friday, October 27, 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Inventories Help Natural Gas Futures?
The EIA (or US Energy Information Administration) published its weekly US natural gas inventory report on October 26, 2017.
Brent-WTI Spread: Will US Oil Exports Rise Further?
On October 24, 2017, Brent crude oil (BNO) active futures were $5.86 above WTI crude oil active futures.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Help the Prices
US natural gas consumption fell 0.17% to 57.1 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) on October 12–18, 2017. It rose 3.1% from the same period in 2016.
Reading the Natural Gas Futures Spread: Rising Oversupply Concerns
On October 11, 2017, the futures spread was at a premium of $0.13. Between then and October 18, natural gas November futures fell 1.2%.
Why the Brent-WTI Spread Could Make Global Oil Supplies Rise
On October 17, 2017, Brent crude oil (BNO) active futures closed $6 above the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures.
Futures Spread: Does It Signal End of Oil’s Oversupply Concern?
On October 17, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) December 2018 futures traded $0.46 below the December 2017 futures.
US Natural Gas Production’s 22-Month High: Will Prices Collapse?
US dry natural gas production rose by 3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.9 Bcf per day in July 2017—compared with the previous month.
US Crude Oil Inventories Are 21% above their Five-Year Average
The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” on October 12, 2017.
Why the Natural Gas Futures Spread Is Concerning Markets
When the futures spread is at a premium, or the premium rises, it could hamper the rise in natural gas prices.
Will Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Production and Exports Hit a New Low?
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production is expected to fall to 9.77 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in November 2017, according to Saudi Aramco.
Oil Futures Spread: Oversupply Concerns Still Loom
On October 10, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (DBO) (OIIL) November 2018 futures traded $0.46 higher than November 2017 futures.
Chesapeake Energy’s Revenue and Profit Margin Trends
Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 1Q17 revenue rose ~41% YoY. In comparison, its YoY revenue growth was approximately -39.3% in 1Q16 and -50.4% in 4Q16.
Futures Spread: A Look at Natural Gas Supply–Demand Concerns
On October 4, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (GASL) November 2018 futures traded $0.08 above the November 2017 futures.
Brent Underperforming US Crude Oil: Impact on US Oil Exports
In 2017 year-to-date, US crude oil exports averaged ~782,700 barrels per day, based on weekly data from the EIA (Energy Information Administration).
Oil’s Contango: Supply–Demand Fears Could Impact the Market
On October 3, 2017, US crude oil (USL) (OIIL) November 2018 futures settled $0.33 higher than the November 2017 futures.
Understanding the Rising US Gasoline Inventories
The EIA estimated on September 27 that US gasoline inventories rose 1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 217.2 MMbbls from September 15–22, 2017.
Understanding the Oil Futures’ Forward Curve
On September 26, 2017, US crude oil November 2017 futures traded just $0.14 below the November 2018 futures.
Behind the Natural Gas Rig Count: Will Production Rise?
The natural gas rig count rose by four to 187 in the week ended September 8, 2017. On a YoY basis, the natural gas rig count more than doubled that week.
Have Oil Supply Glut Concerns Relaxed since Harvey?
On September 5, US crude oil October 2018 futures traded at a premium of $1.94 to October 2017 futures. On August 29, the premium was at $2.37.
Natural Gas: Analyzing the Futures Spread
On August 30, 2017, natural gas October 2018 futures traded at a discount of ~$0.03 to October 2017 futures.
Oil’s Futures Spread: Have Supply Glut Concerns Increased?
On August 29, 2017, US crude oil (USL) October 2018 futures traded at a premium of $2.37 to October 2017 futures.
Natural Gas Futures Spread: Analyzing Supply-Glut Concerns
On August 23, 2017, natural gas September 2018 futures traded at a discount of $0.03 to September 2017 futures.
Could the Oil Rig Count Threaten Bullish Bets on Oil Prices?
The US oil rig count rose by three to 768 for the week ended August 11, 2017.
What Are Analysts’ Expectations for Apache in the Next 12 Months?
Approximately 52% of analysts have rated Apache (APA) a “hold.” The average broker target price of $51.21 implies a potential return of ~13.2% in the next 12 months.
What Analysts Are Recommending for Concho Resources
Approximately 50.0% of the analysts covering Concho Resources (CXO) stock have rated it a “buy,” and 26.5% have rated it a “strong buy.”
Recent Analyst Recommendations for EQT’s Stock
Approximately 47% of analysts have rated EQT (EQT) a “hold.” The remaining 53% have rated it either a “buy” or a “strong buy.”
A Look at Whiting Petroleum’s Implied Volatility Trends
Whiting Petroleum’s implied volatility Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) current implied volatility is ~78%, which is ~3.4% lower than its 15-day average of 80.5%. WLL’s implied volatility fell significantly, but has been increasing again. However, it is still lower than last year’s levels. As shown in the image above, WLL’s implied volatility is significantly higher than the energy […]
Anadarko Petroleum on the Street: The Wall Street Analysts’ Take
Approximately 44% of the analysts covering Anadarko Petroleum (APC) have rated the stock a “buy.”
What Wall Street Expects for Apache in the Next 12 Months
A 60% majority of Wall Street analysts covering APA’s stock have rated it a “hold.” The average target price for APA ~$51.24.
Noble Energy: Short Interest Trends in Its Stock
On July 19, 2017, Noble Energy’s (NBL) short interest ratio was ~3.4%. At the beginning of the year, Noble Energy’s short interest ratio was ~3.3%.
Understanding the Short Interest Trends in Noble Energy Stock
The short interest ratio (or short interest as a percentage of float) in Noble Energy (NBL) stock on June 27, 2017, was ~3.4%.
Looking at the Short Interest Trends in Whiting Petroleum Stock
On June 16, 2017, Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) short interest ratio, or its short interest as a percentage of its float, was ~17%.
Anadarko Petroleum’s Short Interest Trends
Short interest in Anadarko’s shares On June 13, Anadarko Petroleum’s (APC) short interest as a percentage of its float was 1.7%. On January 3, 2017, it was 2.2%. Since the beginning of this year, Anadarko’s short interest has fallen ~25%. As the graph above notes, Anadarko’s stock price and short interest ratio have fallen considerably […]
Whiting Petroleum’s 1Q17 Earnings: A Repeat of 4Q16?
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) is expected to release its 1Q17 earnings on April 26, 2017, after the markets close.
Shorting Whiting Petroleum: Short Interest Trends in WLL Stock
On April 13, 2017, Whiting Petroleum’s short interest ratio was ~12.2%. Its short interest ratio was ~12.6% at the beginning of the year.
Can Government Incentives Boost Green Bond Growth?
In order for the green bond market to expand further, government roles are vital.
What Are the Short Interest Trends in Whiting Stock?
On March 24, 2017, Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) short interest ratio, or its short interest as a percentage of its float, was ~12.2%.
Gauging BP’s Correlation with WTI, SPY, and Henry Hub Gas
In this part, we’ll test the correlation between BP’s stock and crude oil, the broader market, and natural gas.
How Shell’s Stock Price Correlates with WTI
Correlation coefficient In this series, we’ve analyzed Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A) stock performance, analyst ratings, short interest, institutional holdings, implied volatility, and valuation. In this part, we’ll measure the correlation between Shell’s stock and crude oil prices. A correlation coefficient shows the relationship between two variables. A correlation coefficient value of zero to one shows a […]
Analysts’ Recommendations for Upstream Companies
Analysts’ recommendations In this final part of our series, we’ll look at Wall Street analysts’ targets for Apache (APA), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), and Noble Energy (NBL). Consensus recommendations APC, COG, and NBL have the most “buy” recommendations among peers, with 53%, 43%, and 66%, respectively. […]
Whiting Doubles 2017 Capex: What to Make of It
Whiting’s capex budget in 2017 Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) 2017 capital budget is $1.1 billion, almost double its 2016 figure. It estimates that 96% of its total budget will be spent in its core Williston Basin and DJ (Denver-Julesburg) Basin (Redtail) regions. Increased focus on the Bakken and DJ Whiting has been increasing its focus on […]
Short Interest Trends in Whiting Petroleum Stock
On March 3, 2017, Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) short interest ratio was ~11.2%. Its short interest ratio was ~12.6% at the beginning of the year.
What Analysts Recommend for Cabot Oil & Gas after 4Q16
Approximately 43% of analysts rate Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) a “buy,” and 37% rate it a “hold.”
Cabot Oil & Gas’s Revenue and Profit Margin Trends
Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) 4Q16 revenue rose ~13% YoY (year-over-year). Its YoY revenue growth was -54.5% in 4Q15 and ~2% in 3Q16.
What Are Chesapeake Energy’s Revenue Trends?
Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 4Q16 revenue fell ~24% YoY (year-over-year). In comparison, its YoY revenue growth was ~-43% in 4Q15 and -32% in 3Q16.
Oasis Petroleum: Analysts’ Recommendations for the Stock
Approximately 58.3% of analysts rate Oasis Petroleum (OAS) a “buy” and 39% rate it a “hold.”
Rice Energy’s Revenue Growth and Net Profit Margin Trends
Rice Energy’s (RICE) 4Q16 revenue rose ~109.0% YoY (year-over-year).
Whiting Petroleum’s Implied Volatility: Key Trends
Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) implied volatility as of February 22, 2017, was 48.5%, which was ~4.3% lower than its 15-day average of 50.7%.
What Do the Short Interest Trends in Chesapeake Stock Tell Us?
On February 9, 2017, the short interest as a percentage of float (or short interest ratio) in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock was 12.2%.
Whiting Petroleum: Will Its 4Q16 Earnings Be Positive?
Whiting Petroleum is expected to release its 4Q16 earnings on February 21, 2017, after the markets close. For 4Q16, its revenue estimate is ~$345 million.
Whiting Petroleum’s Stock: Short Interest Trends
Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) short interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of float) on January 27, 2016, was ~11.65%.
Analyzing Short Interest Trends in Noble’s Stock
On January 27, 2017, Noble Energy’s short interest as a percentage of its float, or its short interest ratio, was ~3.4%. Its short interest ratio at the end of 3Q16 was ~2.6%.
Understanding Anadarko’s Short interest Trends
On January 25, 2017, APC short interest as a percentage of float, or short interest ratio, was ~1.7%. On September 30, 2016, it was ~2.2%.
The Permian Boasts Lower Break-Even Than All Other Plays
It shouldn’t be surprising that oil and gas producers have been scrambling to add Permian acreage to their portfolios.
Have ExxonMobil’s Refined Products Sales Fallen?
In 3Q16, ExxonMobil (XOM) sold 5.6 MMbpd (million barrels per day) of refined products, registering a 4% fall over 3Q15.
Did Whiting Petroleum’s Stock Rise Due to Short Covering?
Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) short interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of float) on January 13, 2016, was ~13%.
What Does Chesapeake’s Debt Position Look Like?
Chesapeake Energy’s net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) has steadily risen since 4Q14.
Wall Street Vibes: 4Q16 Forecasts for Chesapeake Energy
Around 67% of analysts recommend Chesapeake Energy as a “hold.” The average broker target price of $7.54 implies a return of ~9% over the next 12 months.
Which Region Dragged on Valero’s Per-Barrel Earnings?
Valero Energy witnessed a fall across the board in its refining operating income in 3Q16. The US West Coast saw the largest fall in its per-barrel refining operating earnings.
How Has Shell’s Downstream Portfolio Been Performing?
Regional refining margins in the areas in which Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A) refineries operate are indicators of Shell’s margin performance.
Shell and WTI: A Correlation Analysis
Shell’s correlation coefficient with WTI stands at 0.66, meaning that on average, 66% of movements in Shell’s stock price can be explained by changes in WTI’s price.
Understanding Callon Petroleum’s Earnings Trend
CPE’s earnings have been beating analysts’ expectations since 3Q15. Its adjusted net income in 3Q16 was $12.9 million, as compared to $3.1 million in 3Q15.
Recent Upgrades and Downgrades on Whiting Petroleum
Approximately 24% of analysts have rated Whiting Petroleum (WLL) a “strong buy” and ~55% have rated it as a “hold.”
Where Has Whiting Petroleum Focused in 2016?
On November 21, 2016, Whiting Petroleum (WLL) announced its intention to sell its Bakken midstream assets to an affiliate of Tesoro Logistics Rockies, a subsidiary of Tesoro Logistics (TLLP), for $375 million.
What’s Continental Resources Focusing on in 2016?
Continental Resources (CLR) is the largest leaseholder and one of the largest producers in the Bakken Shale, one of the premier oil plays in the United States. In this series, we’ll focus on its performance, fundamentals, and strategies in 2016.
BBG’s Implied Volatility Has Fallen Significantly in 2016
Bill Barrett’s (BBG) current implied volatility is ~65.7%, which is ~1.2% lower than its 15-day average of 66.5%.
What Are BBG’s Historical and Relative Valuations?
Bill Barrett’s (BBG) 3Q16 adjusted EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) ratio was 11.2x.