Denbury Resources Inc
Are Oil’s Supply Concerns Rising?
On May 21, US crude oil July futures closed $5.97 above the July 2019 futures contract. On May 14–21, US crude oil July futures rose 1.9%.
Analyzing Denbury Resources’ 1Q16 Earnings Call
For 1Q16, Denbury Resources (DNR) reported an adjusted EBITDA of ~$105 million with an EBITDA margin of ~40%. Its EBITDA margin is only ~20% lower.
Why Has Denbury Resources Been Underperforming Crude Oil?
In the last month, crude oil producer Denbury Resources (DNR) has seen its stock price underperform crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices.
Top Energy Losses Last Week
On June 8–15, Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and California Resources (CRC) fell the most on our list of energy stocks.
Is California Resources Rising due to Short Covering?
On December 21, 2016, California Resources’ total shares shorted, also known as its short interest, stood at ~13.7 million.
Futures Spread Indicates Bullishness for Oil Prices
Yesterday, US crude oil November 2018 futures closed ~$3.48 above November 2019 futures, and between September 17 and yesterday, US crude oil November futures rose 5%.
What Devon Energy’s Implied Volatility Could Say about Its Stock Price
On May 18, 2017, Devon Energy (DVN) had an implied volatility of ~33.9, which is ~14.9% below its 260-trading day historical price volatility of ~39.9%.
Denbury Resources’ Production Fell to a 3-Year Low in 2Q17
For 2Q17, Denbury Resources’ continuing production averaged 59.8 Mboepd, which is ~5% lower than its 2Q16 continuing production of ~63.0 Mboepd.
WTI Oil’s Struggle: Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Should You Watch?
On July 18, US crude oil September futures rose 0.9% and closed at $67.75 per barrel.
Denbury Resources’s Capital Expenditure Guidance
For fiscal 2016, Denbury Resources (DNR) plans to spend ~$200 million in capital expenditure, which is ~51% lower when compared with fiscal 2015 capital expenditure of ~$407 million.
Crude Oil Traders Are Closely Watching These Bearish Drivers
In the previous two parts of this series, we covered bullish drivers for crude oil prices. Now let’s look at some key bearish drivers for crude oil prices in 2016.
Global Crude Oil Supply Outages Impact Crude Oil Prices
The EIA estimates that global crude oil supply outages fell by 38,000 bpd to 2,284,000 bpd in November 2016—compared to the previous month.
What Are the Key Bearish Drivers for Crude Oil Prices in 2016?
Multiyear low crude oil prices impact domestic and international oil producers’ margins like PetroChina, Comstock Resources, Whiting Petroleum, and Denbury Resources.
Occidental Petroleum Paid Dividend of $0.76 per Share in January
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) paid its most recent dividend for 4Q16 on January 13, 2017—$0.76 per share on its common stock.
Legacy Reserves: Top Upstream Gainer This Week
In the week starting on March 26, 2018, Legacy Reserves LP increased from last week’s close of $4.47 to $4.94 on March 26—an increase of ~11%.
Futures Spread Nearing Discount: US Crude Sentiment Might Reverse
On October 22, US crude oil December 2018 futures closed just ~$0.6 above the December 2019 futures.
Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Could Outperform Oil’s Downturn?
On February 11, 2016, US crude oil touched a 12-year low. From February 11, 2016, to March 13, 2017, US crude oil active futures contracts rose 84.7%.
Iran’s Crude Oil Exports Could Impact Crude Oil Prices
The rise in crude oil export capacity suggests that Iran’s getting ready for a massive increase in crude oil production in 2018.
How the Crude Oil Market Could React to the Doha Oil Producers Meeting
A meeting of oil producers is scheduled in Doha, Qatar, for April 17. The meeting is meant to support crude prices and will focus on freezing production.
Will Saudi Arabia Cause Colossal Damage for Crude Oil Futures?
According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production hit 10.7 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2017.
Hedge Funds Change Net Long Positions in WTI Crude Oil
The CFTC released its weekly Commitments of Traders report on March 3. Hedge funds’ net long positions hit 413,637 contracts in the week ending February 21.
Saudi Arabia Cutting Oil Exports: Which Stocks Could Gain?
On July 24, 2017, US crude oil (USO)(DBO)(USL) September futures rose 1.2% and closed at $46.34 per barrel.
Better Earnings Impacted PXD’s Volatility and Returns
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) rose the most in the past five days and the last year. On February 7, 2017, it announced its 4Q16 earnings results.
Which Oil ETFs Fell Less than Oil Last Week?
On November 2–9, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) fell 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively.
Why Southwestern Energy’s Implied Volatility Rose
Southwestern Energy’s implied volatility rose 3.5% on February 24. The stock fell ~12%. On February 23, the company reported a net loss of $0.08 per share.
Crude Oil Prices Fall: Strong Dollar and Oversupply to Blame
June WTI crude oil futures contracts trading on NYMEX fell 0.85% and closed at $47.75 per barrel on Friday, May 20. Crude oil prices fell due to profit-booking and a strong dollar.
Why Goldman Sachs Revised Its Crude Oil Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs (GS) forecast that Brent crude oil prices could test $50 per barrel in 2H16 due to recent supply outages.
Wall Street analyst targets for Denbury Resources
The highest target price for Denbury comes from KLR Group, of $13 per share for the company. Denbury currently trades near $9, implying a ~45% return.
Are Crude Oil Prices on the Verge of Collapsing?
Crude oil prices fell due to the API’s bearish crude oil inventory report. Prices have been trading between $50 per barrel and $54 per barrel since January.
EIA Inventory Data Might Concern Oil Bulls
In the week ending January 4, US crude oil inventories were 8% higher than their five-year average—the same as the previous week.
Will Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Support Crude Oil Bulls?
October US crude oil futures contracts fell 0.3% to $46.31 per barrel in early electronic trading on August 30, 2017.
Can OPEC and Russia Rescue the Oil Market?
The EIA estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 90,000 bpd to 31.71 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in April 2017—compared to March 2017.
Why Did Crude Oil Prices Hit a 3-Month Low?
Crude oil (USO) (IXC) (XES) was trading near a 20-month high on March 7. US crude oil prices posted their biggest one-day decline in the last 13 months.
Will the Sharp Sell-Off in Europe and China Impact Oil Prices?
On September 28–October 5, US crude oil November futures rose 1.5% and closed at $74.34 per barrel on October 5.
What to Expect from Libya’s Crude Oil Production in September
The EIA estimates that Libya’s crude oil production fell by 145,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 860,000 bpd in August 2017—compared to the previous month.
The Big Push for Oil this Year
Between September 14 and 21, US crude oil November futures rose 2.9% and closed at $70.78 per barrel. Let’s take a closer look.
Will US Crude Oil Futures Surpass their 200-Day Moving Average?
Let’s track some important events for oil and gas traders from August 14 to 18, 2017.
Traders Focus on the API and EIA’s Crude Oil Inventories
On May 16, 2017, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories rose by 0.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on May 5–12, 2017.
Why Did US Distillate Inventories Fall Again?
June diesel futures contracts rose 2.1% to $1.47 per gallon on May 10, 2017. Prices rose due to the larger-than-expected fall in distillate inventories.
Kurdistan Referendum: Time to Buy Crude Oil Futures?
On September 25, 2017, the people in Kurdistan voted in a referendum for independence. As a result, Turkey blocked 500,000 bpd of crude oil exports.
Upstream Stocks Were the Energy Space’s Top Gainers Last Week
In the week that ended on April 5, upstream stock Denbury Resources (DNR) rose the most among the stocks in the energy space.
Rising Inventories Spread Might Drag Oil Prices
In the week ending on November 2, US crude oil inventories were 3% above their five-year average.
Why Did Oil Prices Fall?
On March 22, natural gas April 2018 futures declined 0.8% and settled at $2.62 per million British thermal units.
Energy XXI Gulf Coast Leads Upstream Gainers from June 18–20
From June 18–20, Energy XXI Gulf Coast (EGC) rose from last week’s close of $7.49 to $8.97, an increase of 20%.
How Long Will Nigeria’s Supply Disruption Help Oil Prices?
Crude oil prices rose on June 9, 2017, due to the supply outage in Nigeria. Rebels damaged the Trans Niger pipeline in Nigeria, which caused a leak.
US Crude Oil and Gasoline Futures Moved Together
June gasoline futures contracts rose 1.3% to $1.53 per gallon on May 3, 2017. Prices rose due to the less-than-expected rise in US gasoline inventories.
US Gasoline Inventories Fell Less, Pressured Gasoline Prices
The EIA released its weekly crude oil report on May 24, 2017. US gasoline inventories fell by 0.8 MMbbls to 239.9 MMbbls on May 12–19, 2017.
Analyzing Oil ETFs’ Returns Last Week
On November 16–23, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) fell 10.3% and 9.9%, respectively.
Will Russia’s Oil Production Fall in the Coming Months?
Russia’s Energy Ministry reported that its oil production fell in the first half of April 2017 due to major producers’ production cut deal.
Oil Might Feel Pressure from US-China Trade Talks on January 28
Between January 18 and January 25, US crude oil March futures fell 0.6% and closed at $53.69 despite a fall in the US dollar.
Crude Oil Storage in Tankers Hit a 2017 High
July US crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (USO) futures contracts fell 0.2% and were trading at $44.13 per barrel in electronic trade at 5:55 AM EST on June 20, 2017.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Hits Record: What’s Next?
Russia’s crude oil production rose by 2,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 11.23 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in November 2016 compared to the previous month.
Tyco International to Tie Up with Johnson Controls
Tyco International (TYC) and Johnson Controls (JCI) revealed on Monday, January 25, 2016, that they are going to merge. The news raised TYC stocks that day, while JCI fell 3.9%.
Are These Bearish Upstream Stocks in Your Portfolio?
On December 5, 2016, California Resources (CRC) had the highest short interest-to-equity float ratio of ~42.5% among the upstream stocks in XOP.
Oil Prices: Why ‘March’ Could Be Important
On February 28, US crude oil April futures rose 0.5% and settled at $57.22 per barrel.
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories’ Record Highs: Impact on Oil
Market surveys estimate that Cushing crude oil inventories fell from February 10 to 17, 2017. A fall in crude oil inventories at Cushing could support US crude oil prices.
Futures Spread: Divergence Is Important for Oil Traders
On December 3, US crude oil January 2019 futures closed ~$1.12 below the January 2020 futures.
Futures Spread: Less Bearish Sentiments for Oil?
On January 7, US crude oil February 2019 futures closed ~$3.1 below the February 2020 futures.
EIA Inventory Data: Impact on Oil
On April 24, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is scheduled to announce last week’s US crude oil inventory data.
Oil-Weighted Stocks at Maximum Risk, Oil Declines
On October 17, US crude oil November futures fell 3% and closed at $69.75 per barrel—below $70 for the first time since September 18.
Why Certain Oil-Weighted Stocks Outperformed Last Quarter
In the fourth quarter, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 44.2%—compared to the 39.7% fall in US crude oil February futures.
Why Traders Are Tracking the API’s Crude Oil Inventories
A market survey estimates that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.83 MMbbls on June 23–30, 2017. Gasoline inventories might have fallen by 0.5 MMbbls.
Traders Track US Crude Oil Production and Exports
US crude oil production rose by 290,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 3.1% to 9,481,000 bpd in September 2017—compared to the previous month.
Oil-Weighted Upstream Stocks: Outlier in the Energy Space
On August 24–31, upstream stock California Resources (CRC) saw the highest gain on our list of energy stocks.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Hit a 3-Year High
Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that the country’s crude oil production rose to ~700,000 bpd in January—the highest level in the last three years.
Oil Wasn’t the Only Catalyst for Oil-Weighted Stocks
The high correlation indicates a stronger positive relationship between oil-weighted stocks and US crude oil prices.
Did Oil ETFs Rise Faster Than US Crude Oil Last Week?
Last week, Denbury Resources (DNR) and California Resources (CRC) rose 23.6% and 21.8%, respectively, the most on our list of oil-weighted stocks.
Denbury Resources’ Revenues Drive Its Profitability
Revenues for Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR) have almost doubled in the six years to 2014. They rose from ~$1.3 billion in 2008 to ~$2.4 billion in 2014.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Fell in April: What’s Next?
Russia is the largest crude oil producer in the world. Russia’s production fell by 50,000 bpd to 11 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in April 2017.
Oil ETFs Outperformed Oil’s Fall Last Week
On October 5–12, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) both fell 3.6%.
Hedge Funds’ Net Bullish Positions on US Crude Oil
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options by 1,136 contracts to 133,606 contracts on June 20–27, 2017.
Why Has Marathon Oil Curtailed Its Dividend?
Marathon Oil (MRO) paid its last dividend on September 12, 2016, issuing a dividend of $0.05 per share on its common stock for 2Q16.
Are US Distillate Inventories Bearish for Oil Prices?
US distillate inventories rose by 1,667,000 barrels or 1.3% to 129.4 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 24–December 1, 2017.
Oil Futures Spread: Why the Divergence Is Interesting
On November 19, US crude oil January 2019 futures closed ~$0.7 below the January 2020 futures.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Could Rise in June
Reuters surveys estimate that Libya’s crude oil production rose by 180,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 730,000 bpd in May 2017—a three-year high.
Must-know: An overview of Athlon Energy
Athlon is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. Its activities include the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and liquids-heavy gas resources in the Permian Basin.
US Crude Oil Production Hit a 20-Month High
The EIA reported that US crude oil production rose by 17,000 bpd to 9,252,000 bpd on April 7–14, 2017. Production rose 0.2% week-over-week.
Upstream Stocks that Lead in Short Interest
On October 28, California Resources (CRC) had the highest short interest-to-equity float ratio of ~44.8% among the upstream stocks in XOP.
Will Saudi Arabia Extend the Output Cut Deal?
A Reuters survey estimates that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production fell by 40,000 bpd to 9.98 MMbpd in August 2017—compared to the previous month.
Did Oil ETFs Diverge from Oil Prices Last Week?
On November 23–30, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) fell 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively.
Upstream Stocks’ Returns and Volatility
On February 17, 2017, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) had the highest implied volatility among the upstream stocks that are part of XOP.
Futures Spread: Perhaps Bearish Sentiments for Oil
On October 29, US crude oil December 2018 futures closed ~$0.01 below the December 2019 futures.
Oil-Weighted Stocks Could Be Impacted by Oil’s Fall
On April 4, 2018, US crude oil May futures fell 0.2% and closed at $63.37 per barrel. On March 28–April 4, 2018, US crude oil May futures fell 1.6%.
Which Oil-Tracking ETFs Outperformed US Crude Oil’s Fall?
On October 26–November 2, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) fell 7.1% and 6.4%, respectively.
What Could Drive Crude Oil Prices Higher?
US crude oil inventories fell 15% from their peak in March 2017 for the week ending November 3, 2017, which helped oil (USO) (UCO) prices.
US Crude Oil Inventories Fell 10% from Their Peak
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.5 MMbbls (million barrels) or 0.3% to 481.8 MMbbls on July 21–July 28, 2017.
Will Oil Glut Continue in 2016 with OPEC’s Production Policy?
Some member countries of OPEC—namely, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait—support the policy to keep oil output high in order retain market share against non-OPEC producers.
Magnetar Capital starts new positions in DNR, OKE, LAMR, and KMI and sells PFE and ZTS—13F Flash C
In this six-part series, we’ll go through some of the main positions Magnetar traded this past quarter. Why buy Lamar Advertising Co. (LAMR)?
These Upstream Stocks Have the Highest Short Interest
California Resources’ short-interest-to-equity-float ratio has risen 51.8% over the last three months.
Denbury Resources’ Operating Costs Are Drifting Upward
Over the last 12 quarters, Denbury’s operating costs have been drifting upward. They rose from $21.19 per BOE in 1Q12 to $22.64 per BOE in 4Q14.
OPEC Spare Production Capacity Hit 2017 Low
The US Energy Information Administration estimated that OPEC’s spare crude oil production capacity fell by 170,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 2.01 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2017.
Geopolitical Turmoil: US Crude Oil Might Stay near to $70
On October 12–19, US crude oil December futures fell 2.7% and closed at $69.28 per barrel on October 19.
US Gasoline Inventories Fell 4% from Their All-Time High
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 6.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 249.3 MMbbls between February 24, 2017, and March 3, 2017.
Why US Crude Oil Prices May Consolidate after OPEC Meeting
Between June 15 and June 22, US crude oil August futures rose 5.8%. The gains were mainly due to the OPEC meeting on June 22.
Will OPEC and Russia Announce Deeper Production Cuts?
The OPEC and non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting will be held on July 24, 2017, in Russia. The meeting will discuss production cut deal compliance.
Oil-Weighted Stocks Could Be Influenced by Volatile Oil Prices
On December 19, US crude oil February futures rose 3.4% from the lowest closing level in more than a year and closed at $48.17 per barrel.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Is at a 4-Year High
August West Texas Intermediate (or WTI) crude oil futures contracts rose $1.03 per barrel, or 2.2%, and settled at $47.07 per barrel on July 3, 2017.
Is the US Capturing Crude Oil Market Share in China and India?
India is the third-largest crude oil consumer after the US and China. India is expected to import crude oil from the US by October 2017.
US Crude Oil below $60 Might Harm Oil-Weighted Stocks
On November 14, US crude oil December futures rose 1% and closed at $56.25 per barrel.
Oil’s Futures Spread: An Interesting Divergence
On December 31, US crude oil February 2019 futures closed ~$3.2 below the February 2020 futures.