Getting Trump's tariff refunds will be chaotic for companies even if court rules in their favor

The legality of the Trump administration's tariffs is being closely examined by the Supreme Court, but several businesses have rushed to get a potential refund secured. With eyes on that verdict, smaller companies joined by bigger corporations have approached the court seeking refunds for the costs incurred due to tariffs. However, analysts now estimate that even if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the businesses and against the tariffs, getting refunds could still be chaotic.

In the past weeks, several big companies, including Costco, Revlon, Bumble Bee Foods, and the maker of Ray-Ban, joined the league of small businesses to move the U.S. Court of International Trade to secure refunds, in the event that the highest court strikes down Trump's tariffs. Brands like Costco argued that they had to abide by a technical deadline that might prevent them from getting the refund if they had not filed the suit. While companies are hopeful of the court ruling in their favor, there is no guarantee of how their refunds would be processed, Axios suggests.

The implementation of the tariffs had been at the center of President Trump's economic agenda, and reports suggest undoing them can lead to chaos, due to the White House's unprecedented approach to imposing the levies. If the tariffs are struck down, importers and businesses could face a bureaucratic struggle to reclaim payments, as refunds are typically slow and majorly reliant on paper checks and tied to complex filing requirements, as per Interior Daily.

Furthermore, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), along with the Treasury Department, would be responsible for issuing the refunds, and without a streamlined process, issuing millions of individual refund checks would be a mammoth task. The other challenges include outdated systems, risks of mail theft, and disputes between importers and couriers, such as UPS and FedEx, as per the publication.

Recently, in a legal filing, the Department of Justice hinted at the scale of refunds, with lawyers suggesting that as of last week, roughly $130 billion in tariffs had been collected under the International Economic Powers Act, the law that the president used to impose the tariffs, as per Axios. As per the report, about 301,000 importers paid the tariffs with 34 million entries for goods submitted to the CBP.

With all the complications, some small businesses doubt that they will ever get any refunds at all. Speaking to Interior Daily, Harley Sitner, the owner of Seattle-based Peace Vans, described the payments as "sunk cost", adding that the unexpected duties made him halt overseas imports. While experts told the publication that automated systems could simplify repayments, the administration may not be eager to do so, as it would rush to find a way to reinstate the tariffs.

The Trump administration has repeatedly claimed that there are ways to replicate the exact tariff structure even if the Supreme Court strikes them down. "Tell me what kind of refund Costco is due if the foreign producer lowers their price [on the imported goods]. They've taken a deduction on having paid the tariffs," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the New York Times DealBook conference, Axios reported.

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