Invesco DB Gold Fund

The US dollar rose 0.32% on January 3, which led to a lower price for spot gold and silver. During the last month, the US dollar (UUP) has fallen 0.78%, and gold has risen 2.9%.

In the past few weeks, fluctuations in precious metals and precious metals–based funds have been influenced by changes in the US dollar.

Copper prices stabilized on Monday, July 4, amid expectations of stimulus from central banks.

At 6:40 AM EST on July 5, the COMEX Copper futures contract for September delivery was trading at $2.2 per pound—a drop of 0.81%.

The talk about the commodities slump (USCI) is almost ubiquitous. It is hard to ignore the freefall most commodities (DBC) seem to have been in during the past year.

With the added support from global partners and the massive gold holdings, China could bring back to life the dead gold standard.

It’s true that market volatility has been unusually low lately, but it’s expected to rise. There are several ways to mitigate the impact of rising volatility and historically, gold has been one of the more effective tools.

There is often a debate among academics, financial gurus, asset managers, and advisors as to the place for non-traditional assets in a portfolio.

In addition to the potential headwind from higher real rates, it’s also not clear that either metal is that mispriced. Valuing commodities is notoriously difficult, as there are no cash flows.

Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why RAAX maintains a bullish or bearish position on certain asset classes.

Over the past three years, HL and KGC have seen falling correlations with gold.

Most precious metal mining stocks have fallen over the last few months due to falling gold prices.

The sudden surge in bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market made some market participants worry about the future of gold.

According to the World Gold Council, jewelry accounts for about 50% of global gold demand.

Precious metals prices shot up on January 19, 2018, with concerns looming over the shutdown the of the US government.

The US dollar rose 0.18% on Tuesday, January 9, 2018, which led to the lower price of spot gold (GLD) and silver.

The PowerShares DB Gold Fund (DGL) and the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) rose 2.2% over the five trading days leading up to December 27, 2017.

Alamos Gold, Sibanye Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines, and Pan American Silver have call-implied volatilities of 43.2%, 50.5%, 22.1%, and 27.5%, respectively.

In this article, we’ll take a look at the call-implied volatilities and RSI scores of Barrick Gold, Kinross Gold, Eldorado Gold, and IAMGOLD.

Speculative positions fell sharply last week. It was the most significant one-week fall since May 2016.

We’ll briefly analyze mining stocks’ correlation with gold. Gold is the most crucial of the precious metals, and mining stocks tend to increasingly take their price changes from gold.

Correlation analysis A correlation study of mining stocks to precious metals is important. It gives insights about miners’ potential price movement. Although the mining shares are essentially part of the market’s equity segment, they’re more coordinated with metals’ movement. Gold is the most dominant precious metals. We’ll discuss how Yamana Gold (AUY), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Coeur […]

As of November 16, 2017, Alamos Gold, First Majestic Silver, Sibanye Gold, and AngloGold Ashanti had call-implied volatilities of 46.9%, 54.6%, 63%, and 40.9%, respectively.

New Gold and Goldcorp have seen upward trends in their correlations with gold, while Newmont Mining has seen its correlation decline.

If we look beyond the dollar influence on precious metals, we can analyze how the probability of an interest rate hike could influence precious metals and their miners.

As of November 2, 2017, AGI, GFI, IAG, and HMY had call-implied volatilities of 46.9%, 40.4%, 44.3%, and 53.3%, respectively.

On October 30, 2017, ABX, AU, KGC, and IAG had call implied volatilities of 29.1%, 40.9%, 41.6%, and 44.3%, respectively.

On October 26, 2017, Royal Gold, Newmont, Sibanye, and Yamana had call implied volatilities of 24.8%, 25.9%, 63%, and 48.4%, respectively.

When investors look at mining stocks, it’s important that they do a technical analysis of the stocks.

On October 23, Alamos, First Majestic Silver, Sibanye Gold, and Gold Fields had call implied volatilities of 46.9%, 54.6%, 63%, and 40.4%, respectively.

Understanding mining stocks’ correlation with gold is crucial for investors in precious metal mining stocks.

The PowerShares DB Gold Fund (DGL) and the Vaneck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) have risen 12.1% and 12.95, respectively, year-to-date, taking strong cues from gold.

Analysts believe the fluctuation in gold can be tracked through the OPEC meetings. If they lead to higher oil prices, there could be inflationary pressure across global economies.

Donald Trump’s recent victory is shining a light on the possibility of a rise in inflation and how such a rise could work for gold.

Let’s look at the implied volatilities of giant mining companies and their RSI (relative strength index) levels in the wake of the carnage in precious metal prices.

The difference between yields on ten-year US notes and similar-maturity TIPS, a gauge of price expectations, expanded to as much as 1.7% last Tuesday.

Last week was rough for precious metals. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all fell. Gold had the biggest weekly fall in about three years.

Gold broke its key level of $1,300 per ounce on Tuesday, October 4, 2016. But investors are seeing gold’s 200-day moving average of $1,258 per ounce as a resistance level.

Many of the fluctuations in precious metals have been determined by the Federal Reserve’s stance on the interest rate, and these fluctuations play on precious metals–based funds.

Many of the fluctuations in precious metals have been determined by the Federal Reserve’s stance on the interest rate, and these fluctuations play on precious metals–based funds.

Aside from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate conundrum, precious metals prices have taken cues from the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.

Gold prices have gained 21% YTD in 2016 and closed at $1,308.40 on September 16, 2016.

Gold is valued in dollars. As a result, the stronger dollar, driven by the recovery of the US economy, is pushing the gold prices further down.

Demand from India Could Lend Support In the near term, India could lend support to the gold market. Indian gold demand has been very weak this year due mainly to the higher gold price. This suggests there is pent-up demand. A good monsoon season in India can lead to a bountiful fall harvest that typically […]

Yellen Channels Doobie Brothers’ “What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits” Another aspect of Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech furthered our conviction for strong gold prices in the long term. She described all of the unconventional monetary policies implemented since the financial crisis (e.g., zero rates, QE, etc.) as components of the Fed’s “toolkit”. Perhaps […]

The precious metals price correction that happened on September 2, 2016, extended to September 6. How did equities and funds respond?

The US dollar rebounded on Tuesday, August 2, after losing on Friday due to weak US economic data. The US dollar rose by 0.15% against world currencies.

2016 started with more turbulence than expected, and many central banks started stacking gold.

Brexit could send jitters around the globe, and investors may jump to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver, which have risen 21.2% and 25.6%, respectively, on a YTD (year-to-date) basis.

Hedge funds increased their bets on gold as prices fell after gold’s gains in 1Q16. However, hedge funds and money managers curbed their bets on gold as it fell steadily in May.

Generally, gold is viewed as a hedge against rapid inflation and lower interest rates. That makes it hard to value gold as there are no cash flows or earnings associated with it.

HSBC analysts have determined that historically, gold has risen for at least 100 trading days after the first hike by the Federal Open Market Committee.

China began updating its gold reserve figures on a monthly basis in July 2015.

Unforeseen events triggered the sudden increase in precious metals at the beginning of 2016. The year started with a bang and took precious metals on a high ride.

China’s love for gold is world famous, and demand had touched its peak in 2013 when gold experienced a steep price fall.

China is looking to change the international gold market with its recently established yuan-denominated gold. The Chinese benchmark rate will derived from a 1 kg contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

As the dollar strengthens, dollar-denominated assets usually suffer. Foreign investors have to buy a rather expensive dollar to invest in these metals.