Will Oil Hit $100 a Barrel? A Forecast
Perfect Storm for Natural Gas—What Are the Top Stock Picks?
Why oil takeaway capacity in the Bakken can affect earnings
The availability of takeaway capacity from the Bakken can affect producers’ earnings.
ConocoPhillips: 2015 Operational Highlights, 2016 Guidance
ConocoPhillips’s (COP) total production volume in 2015 was 1,589 Mboe/d excluding Libya. This represents a 5% year-over-year growth after adjusting for asset dispositions and downtime.
How does Occidental Petroleum compare to industry peers?
In terms of profitability, OXY has the highest profit margins amongst its peers at 24.2%. OXY also has one of the highest dividend yields at 2.85%.
Drop in US Crude Oil Production Supported WTI Prices
The EIA estimates that US crude oil production fell by 40,000 barrels per day to 9.096 million barrels per day in the week ending September 25.
ConocoPhillips: Investors’ Confidence Is Rising
Since ConocoPhillips (COP) reported its fourth-quarter earnings results on January 31, the stock has fallen 1.7%.
ConocoPhillips’s 1Q17 Crude Oil Price Underperforms WTI
ConocoPhillips’s 1Q17 crude oil realized prices In 1Q17, excluding the effect of hedges, ConocoPhillips’s average realized crude oil price in the Lower 48 region was $45.89 per barrel, up ~70% from its price of $27.04 per barrel in 1Q16. Sequentially, ConocoPhillips’s 1Q17 price is ~4% higher than it was in 4Q16. Crude oil prices versus […]
Understanding EOG Resources’ Q2 2018 Production Guidance
For the second quarter, EOG Resources expects total production in the range of 670.3–706.2 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day).
The WTI-Brent crude oil discount narrows
The divergence between WTI and Brent narrowed last week, as a slowdown in Cushing offered a glimmer of hope, causing WTI to rise.
Analyzing Denbury Resources’ 1Q16 Earnings Call
For 1Q16, Denbury Resources (DNR) reported an adjusted EBITDA of ~$105 million with an EBITDA margin of ~40%. Its EBITDA margin is only ~20% lower.
Why Did ConocoPhillips’s Revenue Grow in 1Q18?
For 1Q18, ConocoPhillips (COP) reported revenues of ~$9.0 billion—higher than analysts’ consensus of ~$8.8 billion.
Why Has Denbury Resources Been Underperforming Crude Oil?
In the last month, crude oil producer Denbury Resources (DNR) has seen its stock price underperform crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices.
How a Fed Rate Hike Could Hurt Crude Oil Prices
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen 8% against global currencies in 2015. The rising dollar should put further pressure on the pessimistic oil market.
Why issuers stayed away from high-yield debt markets
Issuance slowed to a trickle when market conditions were unfavorable in August. A number of transactions were either postponed, re-priced, or withdrawn from the market altogether. There was an increase in high-yield debt risk perceptions.
Key Analysis of Chevron’s Fiscal 3Q15 Earnings
Chevron (CVX) announced its third quarter earnings on October 30, 2015. Chevron saw new positions in 870 institutional investors’ portfolios in fiscal 2Q15.
ConocoPhillips Is Nearing the $40 Price Level
ConocoPhillips stock is nearing its psychologically important price level of $40. It hasn’t been able to break above this level since January 5.
How ConocoPhillips Turned Losses into Profits in 4Q17
ConocoPhillips (COP) announced its 4Q17 earnings on February 1, 2018, before the market opened. It had better-than-expected profits of ~$540 million, beating analyst expectations.
ConocoPhillips Stock Outperforms Crude Oil
The price of natural gas (UNG) rose ~5% last week. It rose from $2.92 per mmBtu (million British thermal units) to $3.07 per mmBtu. ConocoPhillips’s production volume mix contains ~40% natural gas.
What Devon Energy’s Implied Volatility Could Say about Its Stock Price
On May 18, 2017, Devon Energy (DVN) had an implied volatility of ~33.9, which is ~14.9% below its 260-trading day historical price volatility of ~39.9%.
What Drove ConocoPhillips’s Operating Cash Flow This Year?
ConocoPhillips’s cash flow from operating activities this year has risen on a YoY basis. Its CFO for the first nine months of 2017 came to ~$4.6 billion.
Why US oil rigs have been trending downward since mid-year
Oil rig counts decreased last week, down ~4% since June Last week, the Baker Hughes oil rig count decreased from 1,367 to 1,361. Oil rig counts have been on a slight downward trend since mid-year. Rigs drilling for oil peaked this year in June, at 1,413, but have since fallen about 4%. Though the drop […]
Refinery Inputs Fall Again: What It Means for WTI Crude Oil
In its weekly report on June 3, the EIA reported that US crude oil refinery inputs averaged ~16.4 MMbpd during the week ending May 29.
Denbury Resources’ Production Fell to a 3-Year Low in 2Q17
For 2Q17, Denbury Resources’ continuing production averaged 59.8 Mboepd, which is ~5% lower than its 2Q16 continuing production of ~63.0 Mboepd.
Must-know: Petroleum doing well, but potash is slow
Total petroleum production increased by 4% in fiscal year 2014 (or FY14). However, the highlight was the increase in liquids production. It was supported by a 73% increase in Onshore U.S. liquid volumes and nearly doubled production at Atlantis. This is important to note because liquid volumes are more profitable.
What Has Hedging Done for Range Resources?
In 1Q16, natural gas hedging activities increased Range Resources’ (RRC) average realized natural gas price by $0.91 per Mcf (thousand cubic feet).
Yields on Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Remain Low
If spreads are rising or widening, credit conditions can be assumed to be worsening. Spreads widen when growth is slow and economic conditions worsen.
Big Forces Behind India’s Future Monetary Policy
Rate cut transmissions by commercial banks, inflation, and monetary policy actions by the Fed will have the largest influence on India’s future.
Anadarko Petroleum Ranks Seventh in Terms of Cash Flow Growth
In this article, we’ll look into the cash flow growth expectations of Anadarko Petroleum (APC).
How Range Resources Did in 1Q18
Range Resources (RRC) announced its 1Q18 earnings on April 25, after the market closed.
Why Is Apache Struggling with Its 100-Day Moving Average?
Apache was trading 11.8% below its 100-day moving average. Since November 27, 2015, the stock has struggled to cross its 100-day moving average.
Natural Gas Prices Slump due to Increasing Inventory Data
Natural gas futures for July delivery slumped by 4.95% on Thursday. Natural gas prices declined due to rising inventory data. It continued its losing streak.
India’s Consumer Price Index Is Tethered but Risky
The RBI had headroom to make a further rate reduction in August, but then the bank resisted, citing the rise in core inflation.
Spread between WTI crude oil and Brent oil has closed in significantly since YE2012
The WTI-Brent spread remained relatively unchanged last week, but has closed in significantly since year-end 2012.
Do Crude Oil Prices Hold the Key to a Rate Hike in the US?
Cushing, Oklahoma WTI prices fell to $41.93 a barrel on August 17—the lowest since early March 2009. Iran flooding the market with its oil is one of the reasons for this fall.
The Story behind Stone Energy’s Operating Netbacks
In 2Q16, Stone Energy’s (SGY) reported operating netback of ~$23.64 per boe (barrel of oil equivalent), which is higher by ~4% than in 2Q15.
What Just Happened to ConocoPhillips Stock?
Last week (ended May 26), crude oil prices fell from $50.67 per barrel to $49.80 per barrel.
The must-know relationship between oil rigs and crude prices
The previous parts of this series (parts 8 and 9) explained the counterintuitive relationship between low natural gas prices, falling rigs, and rising natural gas production. Oil rigs have a simpler relationship with crude oil prices and oil production.
A must-know overview of ConocoPhillips’ operations in the US
The lower 48—representing the largest business segment in COP—consists of operations located in the U.S. lower 48 states plus Latin America.
Now for the ConocoPhillips Nitty-Gritty: Debt, Cash, Leverage, and Liquidty
ConocoPhillips’s net debt-to-EBITDA was in the range of 0.6x–1.1x between 3Q13 and 4Q14. But in 2015, its net debt-to-EBITDA multiple started increasing.
Commodity ETFs a Riskier Bet Last Week Than XOP
While retail investors don’t have easy access to the futures market, they can benefit from access to safer, low-cost avenues such as energy ETFs to bet on WTI crude prices.
Why energy investors monitor the EIA’s crude inventory report
Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.5 million barrels in crude inventories last week. We’ll discuss actual changes in the crude inventory in this series.
Chesapeake Energy Is Trading In-Line with Its Historical Multiples
Chesapeake Energy’s 4Q15 EV-to-EBITDA multiple is in-line with its historical average of ~5.8x. The market value of its equity declined by ~71% year-over-year.
Production is expected to increase, despite lower crude prices
The EIA expects 2015 production to touch 9.3 MMbbls/d—despite the low prices. In 2014, production averaged 8.6 MMbbls/d, according to the EIA’s estimates.
Can Marathon Oil Report Higher Profits in Q2 2018?
Marathon Oil (MRO) is set to report its Q2 earnings on August 1. Excluding one-time items, the net income estimate is ~$161 million.
EIA projections: What to expect for crude prices in 2015
Plunging crude prices may cause crude production to decline.The EIA has scaled down its 2015 production growth forecast from 900,000 to 700,000 barrels.
Will US Crude Oil Hit $60?
The EIA reported a fall of 8.6 MMbbls (million barrels) in US crude oil inventories to 445.9 MMbbls for last week.
Lower Crude Oil Prices Are Behind the Layoffs at U.S. Steel
Lower crude oil prices are the primary reason behind falling oil rig counts. Leading energy companies have reduced their 2015 capital expenditure targets.
An Overview of US LNG Production and Exports
Investors may be seeing a lot of reports about rising US LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports. Let’s review the basics of LNG.
Declining Crude Oil Inventory versus Oversupply Sentiments
July WTI crude oil futures trading on NYMEX showed the rectangular trading range pattern. Prices have been fluctuating between $58 and $61 per barrel for a few weeks.
Natural Gas Prices Rise for 5 Consecutive Days on Rising Demand
NYMEX-traded June natural gas futures increased by 1.62% on Monday—led by the consensus of warm weather estimates. Prices rose for the fifth consecutive day.
Will ConocoPhillips Continue to Deliver amid Oil’s Turbulence?
As of November 12, Brent crude oil active futures had fallen 18.3% from their almost four-year high of $86.29 per barrel on October 3.
Will capex cuts by E&P companies affect oil prices?
Conoco is confident that its production growth will grow by ~3%, driven by a combination of new projects such as APLNG, expected to ramp up in mid-2015.
Why Southwestern Energy’s Implied Volatility Rose
Southwestern Energy’s implied volatility rose 3.5% on February 24. The stock fell ~12%. On February 23, the company reported a net loss of $0.08 per share.
One Key Driver for Marathon Oil’s Stock Price Movement
Identifying the key driver Marathon Oil’s (MRO) stock price was in an uptrend from October 2011 to September 2014 when NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (USO) prices were in an uptrend. But NYMEX WTI crude oil started to fall in June 2014, and Marathon Oil’s stock price had topped within three […]
Brent-WTI Spread Impacts US Upstream Stocks
On February 19, Brent crude oil April futures settled ~$10 higher than WTI crude oil April futures—near its four-month high.
US Crude Oil Inventories Increased More Than Expected, WTI Down
In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on November 4, 2015, the EIA reported an increase of 2.8 MMbbls in crude oil inventories for the week ended October 30, 2015.
BHP Billiton Is Deferring Petroleum Production, but Can It Generate Value?
The key to understanding profitability for BHP’s Petroleum division is looking unit costs of petroleum and its outlook on these going forward.
IEA Reveals a Big Surprise for Oil Bulls
On March 14, US crude oil April futures rose 0.6% and settled at $58.61 per barrel, the highest closing level for US crude oil active futures since November 12.
Occidental Petroleum: Analysts’ Ratings after 4Q17
The median target price on Occidental Petroleum stock is $78.50, which is ~12% higher than its closing price of $69.85 on February 14.
Did Natural Gas Prices Move ConocoPhillips Stock Last Week?
For the week ending November 17, ConocoPhillips (COP) stock had shown the highest correlation of ~91% with natural gas (UNG).
Why Brent pays the price for Saudi’s “generosity”
Prices were at their lowest levels since November 2010. The sharper drop in Brent prices also caused the WTI-Brent spread to fall to $2 on Wednesday.
What Do the PCE Price Index and Break-Even Inflation Indicate?
The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation because it covers the broadest set of goods and services.
What Really Moved ConocoPhillips Stock Last Week?
For the week ending October 20, ConocoPhillips stock showed a negative correlation of -15% with crude oil (USO) (SCO).
Why ConocoPhillips Expects Lower Production in 4Q17
For 4Q17, ConocoPhillips (COP) expects total production (USO) (UNG) in the range of 1,195–1,235 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day).
ConocoPhillips Outperformed Crude Oil: Positive for Its Uptrend
For the week ending October 20, 2017, crude oil (USO) prices rose from $51.45 per barrel to $51.84 per barrel—an increase of 0.76%.
Crude Oil Prices Rise: Tropical Storms and Declining Inventories
NYMEX-traded WTI crude oil futures rose marginally by 0.75% and settled at $59.97 per barrel on June 16, 2015. Prices rose despite oversupply worries.
Crude Oil Prices Fall Due to Refined Products’ Glut
November WTI crude oil futures contracts fell by 2.6% on October 19. Crude oil prices fell due to the mammoth rise in the gasoline glut and weak demand cues.
Why 2007 foreign oil asset expropriation in Venezuela affected US oil majors
In May 2007, the government expropriated all of ConocoPhillips’ operations without fair compensation. In late 2007, ConocoPhillips initiated arbitration against Venezuela before the World Bank’s ICSID.
Must-know: Why upstream players like ExxonMobil rely on fracking
For upstream companies, fracking has turned prospects that were previously considered non-viable into profitable opportunities.
Crude Oil Prices Rise Marginally on Short Covering due to Expiry
NYMEX-traded WTI crude oil futures contracts for July delivery rose marginally by 0.12% and settled at $59.68 per barrel on June 22, 2015.
Stock Comparison: How Have COP, DVN, OXY, APC, and EOG Fared?
Stock performance In this article, we’ll discuss the year-to-date (YTD) stock performance of ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), and EOG Resources (EOG), which reported the highest revenue among upstream companies in fiscal 2017. Outliers and underperformers The above image shows that ConocoPhillips (COP) is the outlier among peers. YoY […]
Is ConocoPhillips’s Increased Debt Weighing on Its Earnings?
As of June 30, 2016, ConocoPhillips’s total debt stood at ~$28.7 billion. With ~$4.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, its net debt was ~$24.5 billion.
OPEC Crude Oil Production Is Breaking Records
The latest survey from Reuters suggested that OPEC’s crude oil production is breaking historical records. OPEC crude oil production hit 33.1 MMbpd in January 2016.
Analyzing the Pros and Cons of High Volatility Upstream Stocks
On December 23, 2016, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) had the lowest implied volatility among upstream stocks that are part of XOP.
Crude Oil Prices Slip Back as Oil Oversupply Concerns Deepen
Global crude oil surplus concerns drove crude oil prices lower in yesterday’s trading. And declining demand from refineries added to the fall in oil prices.
Crude Oil Prices Tumbled Almost 6% in Single Trading Session
The US benchmark March WTI crude oil futures contracts fell by 6.0% and closed at $31.62 per barrel on February 1, 2016. Global benchmark Brent oil futures fell 1.4% and closed at $34.24.
Reviewing the Crude Oil Market in 2016
US and Brent crude oil prices have been on a rollercoaster ride in 2016. WTI was trading at $53 per barrel in electronic trade at 2:20 AM EST on December 27.
How Returns Affect Implied Volatility of Upstream Stocks
On December 19, 2016, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) stock fell 79.1% YTD, the steepest YTD fall among upstream stocks with the highest implied volatilities.
Oil Traders: Be Careful with Your Long Positions
The fall in the yield spread indicates concerns about the US economy’s growth rate. Oil prices might fall from the current levels.
Why Berkshire Hathaway reduces stake in ConocoPhillips
Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its position in ConocoPhillips (COP). The position now accounts for 0.11% of the fund’s 2Q14 portfolio—down from 0.74% in 1Q14. ConocoPhillips is an independent exploration and production company.
Oil Prices: Why ‘March’ Could Be Important
On February 28, US crude oil April futures rose 0.5% and settled at $57.22 per barrel.
XLE and USO Down, UNG Up in the Week Ending June 19
The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 1.35% in the week to June 19. The ETF tracks a diverse group of ~45 of the largest US energy stocks.
Sizing up the T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East Fund
The T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East Fund invests in between 50 and 80 companies, focusing on Kenya and South Africa, as well as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
US leads oil production growth, but rig count advantage shrinks
US rig count comes down In this series, we’ve been discussing oil rigs and crude oil prices in the US. In this part of the series, we’ll talk about global rig count and global crude oil production. US versus world rig count According to Baker Hughes’ estimates, the US rig count currently exceeds the total […]
Analyzing Returns of High Implied Volatility Upstream Stocks
Cobalt International Energy stock fell ~77.4% on a YTD basis—the steepest YTD fall among upstream stocks with the highest implied volatilities.
Integrated Energy Fund XLE Slides, but Commodity Funds Fare Worse
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) lost 0.92% in the week ending June 5. XLE has exposure to many types of energy companies with different exposures to energy prices
Why Certain Oil-Weighted Stocks Outperformed Last Quarter
In the fourth quarter, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 44.2%—compared to the 39.7% fall in US crude oil February futures.
A Look into ConocoPhillips Institutional Holdings
ConocoPhillips has fallen 0.6% YTD, underperforming the S&P 500 Index’s 25.5% gain. Subdued energy commodity prices could explain its underperformance.
Crude Oil Prices Hit $43 Level Due to Slowing Demand Concerns
NYMEX-traded WTI crude oil futures for September delivery fell by 1.76% on August 7. Crude oil prices are trading close to the March 2015 levels.
Production Freeze: Saudi Arabia and Iran Are Playing Hide and Seek
Saudi Arabia and Iran are both important to production freeze talks. Both countries have the option to expand their production capacities.
Analysts’ Ratings and Outlook for Occidental Petroleum
Of the 26 analysts tracking Occidental Petroleum (OXY), 69% recommend “buy,” 31% recommend “hold,” and none recommend “sell.”
Oil Fell on Trump’s Tweet this Morning
This morning at around 9:12 AM ET, US crude oil futures were down almost $1.20 from last week’s closing level.
Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Might Rise with Oil?
On February 27, US crude oil April futures rose 2.6% and closed at $56.94 per barrel due to the EIA’s bullish inventory data.
Why is production cost the vital measure for upstream oil majors?
The overall production cost structure is important to withstand the crude oil price onslaught.
Doji pattern: Crude Oil Prices Settle Below $60 per Barrel
Massive supply and a strong dollar will continue to put pressure on oil prices. On the other hand, slowing US output could support crude oil prices.
Will US Crude Oil Maintain the $54 Level on February 5?
On February 4, US crude oil prices fell 1.3% and settled at $54.56 per barrel. US crude oil active futures made an intraday high of $55.75.
ConocoPhillips’s Deepwater Exploration Exit Impacts 2016 Guidance
For 2Q16, ConocoPhillips (COP) expects total production in the range of 1,500–1,540 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day).
How Does Chevron Look from a Valuation Standpoint?
Chevron is the second-largest energy giant in the US. However, with a market capitalization of $166.9 billion, it ranks behind ExxonMobil.
Phillips 66: An overview
In 2013, Phillips 66 generated 67%, 13%, and 6% of its revenues from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, respectively. The company’s other foreign operations contributed ~16%.