API’s crude oil inventories
On July 18, 2017, the API (American Petroleum Institute) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. The API’s report will be followed by the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 AM EST on July 19, 2017.
A market survey estimates that US crude oil inventories would have fallen by 3.7 MMbbls (million barrels) on July 7–14, 2017. US crude oil inventories and crude oil prices are inversely related, as you can see in the following chart. Any fall in inventories could support oil (USO) (PXI) (USL) prices.
Gasoline and distillate inventories estimates
Crude oil stored in tankers
Meanwhile, crude oil and its products stored in tankers are declining in Southeast Asia. According to Reuters, some traders said that they might not renew contracts with crude oil tankers due to the rise in demand for crude oil and its products in the near term. The improving refining capacity and summer season drive the demand for crude oil. For more on crude oil stored in tankers, read Crude Oil Storage in Tankers Hit a 2017 High.
US crude oil inventories have fallen by ~34 MMbbls in the last ten weeks. A larger-than-expected fall in US crude oil and gasoline inventories could benefit crude oil prices this week. The expectation of a fall in crude oil stored in tankers could also benefit oil prices.
In the next part, we’ll look at how OECD crude oil inventories impact crude oil prices.