Northern Oil & Gas Inc
Analyzing Crude Oil Prices in 2016 and 2017
Crude oil prices were $54.1 per barrel on December 28—the highest since July 14, 2015. As of January 16, 2017, crude oil prices are 3.4% below their highs.
US Dollar at a 13-Year High: Crude Oil Market’s Turning Point?
The US Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 101.4 on November 18, 2016—the highest level in the last 13 years. It also rose 4% in the last two weeks.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production: Bears Could Control Oil Prices
Libya’s crude oil production was at 1,030,000 bpd in July 2017. Production has risen ~60% from its levels in January 2017.
US Dollar Index Fell: How Will It Impact Crude Oil Prices?
The US Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 98.3 on October 28, 2016. It fell due to political uncertainty in the US. It had risen earlier in the morning on October 28.
Can OPEC and Russia Rescue the Oil Market?
The EIA estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 90,000 bpd to 31.71 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in April 2017—compared to March 2017.
What Are the Key Drivers for the Crude Oil Market This Week?
July West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 2.9% and settled at $49.37 per barrel on June 20, 2016.
API Crude Oil Stocks Could Add More Pain for Crude Oil Prices
On April 19, the API will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. The US crude oil inventory rose by 6.22 MMbbls for the week ending April 8, 2016.
Relationship between US Distillate Inventories and Oil Prices
US distillate inventories rose by 2,747,000 barrels to 127.7 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 17–24, 2017. Inventories rose 2.2% week-over-week.
US Crude Oil Inventories Could Hit a New Record
On March 7, the API (American Petroleum Institute) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories are at an all-time high.
Oil Traders Focus on US Crude Oil Inventories
On January 31, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. It reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 5.8 MMbbls from January 20–27.
Why Morgan Stanley Expects Crude Oil Prices to Trend even Lower
As of the end of April, crude oil prices had rallied by almost 70% since the lows of February 2016. But prices were still ~60% lower than in June 2014.
Why US Gasoline Demand Is Important for Crude Oil Prices
The EIA reported that the weekly US gasoline demand rose 320,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,118,000 bpd from October 14–21, 2016.
Will US Crude Oil Inventories Pressure Oil Prices?
September US crude oil (BNO) (IEZ) (UCO) futures contracts fell 0.3% to $46.4 per barrel in electronic trading at 2:15 AM EST on July 19, 2017.
US Crude Oil Production Is near 4-Year Low
The EIA estimates that US crude oil production fell by 1,074,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 8,406,000 bpd on October 6–13, 2017.
Why Investors Are Tracking US Gasoline Demand
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 80,000 bpd to 9,237,000 bpd on April 14–21.
Crude Oil Prices Could Hit $80 per Barrel in 2018
BBL Commodities is one of the largest oil hedge funds in the world. BBL Commodities expects that Brent crude oil prices could hit $80 per barrel in 2018.
Federal Reserve and OPEC Pressure Crude Oil Prices
On December 14, the Federal Reserve reported that it would raise the interest rate by 25 basis points. As a result, the US Dollar Index appreciated by 0.7%.
OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Could Rebalance the Oil Market
A Reuters survey estimates that OPEC showed 95% compliance with targeted production cuts in March 2017 due to major producers’ production cut deal.
US Inventories and Libya Impact Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices fell due to the unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories. However, crude oil prices are trading near 2016 highs.
Will Russia Support OPEC if Production Cuts Continue?
On April 28, 2017, the Ministry of Energy of Russia said the country’s oil production fell 300,000 bpd to meet the targeted production cut in April 2017.
US Crude Oil Production Hit a 10-Month High: What’s Next?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil production rose by 24,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,001,000 bpd between February 10 and February 17, 2017.
Goldman Sachs: OPEC and Russia Could Pressure Oil Prices
Goldman Sachs (GS) thinks that a rise in production from OPEC, Russia, and the US in 2H18 could lead to renewed oversupply by the end of 2018.
EIA and API’s Crude Oil Inventories Impact Oil Prices
On December 28, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories rose by 4,200,000 barrels from December 16–23, 2016.
OPEC’s Spare Production Capacity Fell: Will It Impact Oil Prices?
The EIA estimated that OPEC’s spare crude oil production capacity fell by 36,277 bpd to 2.32 MMbpd in April 2017—compared to March 2017.
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: More Pain for Oil Prices?
Market surveys estimate that Cushing crude oil inventories rose from March 3–10. A rise in crude oil inventories could pressure US crude oil prices.
Iran’s Crude Oil Exports Hit a Record: What’s Next?
A Reuters survey estimates that Iran’s crude oil production rose by 10,000 bpd to 3.77 MMbpd in March 2017—compared to the previous month.
US Crude Oil Production Fell for the First Time since February
US crude oil production fell by 9,000 bpd to 9,305,000 bpd on May 5–12, 2017. Production fell 0.1% week-over-week, but rose 5.8% year-over-year.
US Diesel Futures Follow Crude Oil Prices
February 2017 NY Harbor ULSD futures fell and settled at $1.66 per gallon on December 21. Diesel futures fell despite the fall in distillate inventories.
Analyzing Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Export Strategy
On July 24, 2017, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister stated that the country would cut crude oil exports to 6.6 MMbpd in August 2017.
OPEC’s Crude Oil Production and Strategy Ahead of Its Meeting
A Bloomberg survey reported that that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 484,000 bpd to 33.2 MMbpd in April 2016—compared to the previous month.
Will Trump and US Supplies Drive Crude Oil Futures?
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (UCO) (XLE) (USO) futures contracts for June delivery rose 0.84% and closed at $49.07 per barrel on May 17, 2017.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Fourth Straight Week
US distillate inventories rose by 1.1 MMbbls to 152.5 MMbbls on June 9–16, 2017. US distillate inventories rose for the fourth consecutive week.
US Distillate Inventories Are near a 3-Year Low
US distillate inventories fell by 302,000 barrels to 128.9 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 20–27, 2017. It’s the lowest level since April 10, 2015.
Is Weekly US Crude Oil Production Bullish or Bearish?
The EIA reported that US crude oil production fell by 11,000 bpd to 8,681,000 bpd from November 4–11, 2016. Production fell 5.5% year-over-year.
Will US Crude Oil Inventories Fall and Support Oil Prices?
February WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts fell 0.2% to $53.2 per barrel in electronic trade at 4:50 AM EST on January 5, 2017.
OECD’s Oil Inventories Reached an All-Time High
OECD’s oil inventories are at the highest level ever. Record oil inventories are bearish for crude oil (PXI) (ERX) (DIG) (USL) (IXC) prices.
What to Watch for in the Energy Sector This Week
Moves in crude oil prices can impact the earnings of oil and gas producers such as ConocoPhillips (COP) and Northern Oil & Gas (NOG).
How the US Dollar and Brexit Are Affecting Crude Oil Prices
Prior to the Brexit referendum, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for August delivery rose by 2% and settled at $50.11 per barrel on Thursday, June 23, 2016.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the Fourth Time in 5 Weeks
The EIA reported that US distillate inventories fell by 1.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 149.5 MMbbls on July 14–21, 2017.
Why Is a Production Freeze a Key Catalyst for Crude Movement?
On April 17, 2016, OPEC and non-OPEC producers will meet to discuss a possible production freeze agreement. The talks aim to lock the production levels of participating countries at January 2016 levels.
Cushing Inventories Fell 33% from the Peak
Analysts expect that Cushing crude oil inventories could have declined on January 5–12, 2018. A fall in Cushing inventories is bullish for oil prices.
Traders Could Start Booking a Profit in Crude Oil Futures
On January 16, 2018, Goldman Sachs said that crude oil prices could exceed its forecast in the coming months.
Upstream Losses: NOG, TELL, GPOR, EPE, and REN
In the week starting on March 19, 2018, Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) decreased from $2.09 to $1.86—a significant decrease of ~11.0%.
US Crude Oil Inventories Limit the Upside for Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 6.8 MMbbls (million barrels) to 418.3 MMbbls on January 19–26, 2018.
EIA Upgraded Crude Oil Price Forecasts for 2018
The EIA forecast that Brent (BNO) crude oil would average $59.74 per barrel in 2018—4.3% higher than the previous estimates in December 2017.
Northern Oil and Gas Leads Upstream Gainers This Week
In the week starting January 1, Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) increased from last week’s close of $2.05 to $2.54 on January 2, a significant increase of ~24%.
Massive Fall in US Gasoline Inventories Drove Gasoline Futures
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 5,465,000 barrels or 2.5% to 216.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 13–20, 2017.
Iran’s Crude Oil Production Was Flat in August 2017
The EIA estimates that Iran’s crude oil production was flat at 3.8 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in August 2017—compared to July 2017.
US Gasoline Inventories’ Largest Weekly Drop in 27 Years
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly crude oil inventory report on September 13.
Why Were Crude Oil Price Forecasts Downgraded Again?
A Wall Street Journal survey estimates that US crude oil prices could average $51 per barrel in 2018—$2 per barrel lower than previous estimates.
How Hurricane Harvey May Impact US Crude Oil Production
US crude oil production The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil production rose by 2,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,530,000 bpd between August 18 and 25, 2017. Production rose 1,042,000 bpd, or 12.3%, from the same period in 2016. It has risen for three consecutive weeks to August 25, and has reached […]
Will US Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories Support Oil Prices?
September WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (OIH) (SCO) (DIG) futures contracts rose 0.5% to $47.81 per barrel in electronic trading at 1:50 AM EST on August 16, 2017.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the Second Straight Week
The EIA reported that US distillate inventories fell by 1.8 MMbbls (million barrels) or 1.2% to 150.4 MMbbls on June 23–30, 2017.
US Crude Oil Production: Biggest Weekly Fall since July 2016
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil production fell by 100,000 bpd to 9,250,000 bpd on June 16–23, 2017.
Analyzing US Gasoline Inventories and Gasoline Demand
US gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 MMbbls to 242.3 MMbbls on June 2–9, 2017. Inventories rose 0.9% week-over-week and 2.3% year-over-year.
Analyzing Cushing Crude Oil Inventories and US Crude Oil Futures
A fall in Cushing inventories could benefit US crude oil (BNO) (SCO) (UCO) prices. Crude oil prices have risen 2.8% in the last four weeks.
US Crude Oil Inventories Are 0.6% below Their All-Time High
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 1 MMbbls to 532.3 MMbbls on April 7–14, 2017. US crude oil inventories fell 0.2% week-over-week.
US Crude Oil Inventories Supported Crude Oil Prices
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 884,000 barrels to 488.1 MMbbls from November 18–25, 2016.
Gasoline Demand Impacts Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices
US gasoline prices hit $1.14 per gallon on February 8, 2016—the lowest in 12 years. As of November 29, 2016, prices rose 21.1% from their lows in February.
US Gasoline Inventories Pressured Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories rose by 600,000 barrels to 228.4 MMbbls (million barrels) from September 2–9, 2016.
Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Lead in the Correlation with Crude Oil?
On July 25, US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (SCO) contracts for September delivery closed at $43.13 per barrel—2.4% below its previous closing price.
Upstream Stocks with Highest Short Interest-to-Equity Float Ratios
On July 18, 2016, Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI) had the highest short interest-to-equity float ratio among the upstream stocks at ~58.0%.
Upstream Stocks with High Short Interest–to–Equity Float Ratios
As of July 8, 2016, Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI) has the highest short interest–to–equity float ratio among upstream stocks at 57.8%.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Will Pressure the Crude Oil Market
Russia’s crude oil production rose to 10.84 MMbpd in June 2016—compared to the previous month—according to sources from the Russian Energy Ministry.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions Rose for the First Time in 5 Weeks
Net long positions rose by 21,586 contracts to 213,075 contracts for the week ended June 21, 2016, compared to the previous week.
Crude Oil Fell almost 8% in the Last 2 Days: Is It the Turning Point?
August West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts fell by ~2.8% and settled at $46.33 per barrel on Monday, June 27, 2016. Prices fell for the second day due to the aftermath of the Brexit vote on June 24.
What Drove the Crude Oil Demand in Asia?
India’s Petroleum, Planning, and Analysis Cell reported that India’s crude oil demand rose by 0.4 MMbpd in April. It’s 10% higher than the same period in 2015.
Brent and WTI Crude Oil Prices Moved in the Same Direction
Crude oil prices fell for the first time in the last three days due to uncertainty about the United Kingdom’s future in the European Union.
Which Upstream Stocks Had the Highest Short Interest?
As of June 10, 2016, Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI) had the highest short interest-to-equity float figures among upstream stocks.
Why Is Nigeria Overshadowing the Crude Oil Market?
July WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 1.4% and settled at $50.36 per barrel on Tuesday, June 7, 2016.
Will Crude Oil’s Supply and Demand Balance Narrow or Widen?
In a recent Short-Term Energy Outlook Report, the EIA estimated that the global crude oil supply and demand gap averaged 1.2 MMbpd in 1H16.
Demand Side of the Crude Oil Market: India Is a Bright Spot
OPEC’s monthly report highlighted that India’s crude oil demand rose by 0.6 MMbpd in March 2016, 15% higher than in the corresponding period in 2015.
How Will China and India Impact the Crude Oil Market in 2016?
China’s crude oil production fell to the lowest level in four years. It fell by 5.6% YoY (year-over-year) to 16.6 metric tons in April 2016.
US Crude Oil Production Fell for 15th Straight Week: What’s Next?
Monthly US crude oil production peaked at 9.7 MMbpd in April 2015—the highest level since the 1970s. US crude oil production hit its lowest level since September 5, 2014, in the week ended May 6, 2016.
Could US Crude Oil Inventory Rise for 3rd Straight Week?
On April 26, 2016, the API (American Petroleum Institute) released its weekly crude oil inventory report. It showed that US crude oil inventory fell 1.1 MMbbls for the week ended April 22.
Some Key Bearish Catalysts for Crude Oil Prices
The expectation of rising crude oil production from Saudi Arabia could see crude oil prices under pressure. Iran will most likely increase production until it reaches pre-sanction levels.
US Crude Oil Production Sees a Significant Fall: What’s Next?
The EIA reported that US crude oil production fell by 113,000 barrels per day to 8.8 MMbpd (million barrels per day) for the week ending April 29, 2016.
Why South Korea and India Are Bullish Forces for Crude Oil
In this part of the series, we’ll look at some more bullish drivers for crude oil prices over the long term.
Why Is the US Dollar Index Limited in Driving Crude Oil Prices?
From February 26, 2016, to April 22, 2016, the US Dollar Index has fallen around 3%. The last 30-day correlation with crude oil stood at -24% on April 22.
How Are Crude Oil Prices and the S&P 500 Correlated?
Historically, crude oil prices and the S&P 500 index have influenced each other.
Gasoline Prices: Roller Coaster Ride Continues in 2016
May gasoline futures trading in NYMEX rose by 0.7% and settled at $1.39 per gallon on April 6. Gasoline prices rallied almost 30% from the lows in February.
How Seasonality Impacts Crude Oil Prices
Seasonality plays a key role in influencing crude oil prices. Crude oil prices tend to rise in August due to the summer driving season, which results in a rise in gasoline demand.
Why Is Saudi Arabia Making Crude Oil Volatile?
After Mohammad Bin Salman Al-Saud’s interview on April 1, investors turned bearish on crude oil. During the last two trading sessions, US crude oil lost about 6.8%.
Crude Is near the Break-Even Cost for Some OPEC Members
With crude falling below $40 per barrel, it’s inching towards the break-even cost of OPEC’s member countries. Lower crude oil prices are a direct loss for crude oil exporters.
Crude Oil Prices Test the Key Support Level and Could Rebound
Slowing US output and falling inventories could support crude oil prices. The next resistance for US WTI crude oil prices is seen at $55 per barrel.
Will Crude Oil Prices Hit Their Next Support Level?
August WTI crude oil futures fell below the key support level of $52 per barrel for the second day in a row.
Crude Oil Prices Test the Key Support: Hit a 2-Month Low
Crude oil prices resumed their long-term downward trend yesterday. Bearish oversupply factors and Iran’s nuclear deal could drag WTI prices lower.
Crude Oil Inventory: Will API Inventory Data Increase Again?
The API is expected to release the weekly crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventory report on Tuesday, June 9. Last week, the US stockpile increased by 1.8 MMbbls.