SPDR® S&P Oil & Gas Equipment&Svcs ETF
National Oilwell Varco’s Historical Valuation in Context
On March 31, 2017, National Oilwell Varco (NOV) stock was 7.0% higher than on December 30, 2016. In 1Q17, its adjusted earnings were negative.
Iran and Iraq’s Role in OPEC’s Meeting
The EIA estimates that Iran’s crude oil production was flat at 3.81 MMbpd in April 2017—compared to March 2017. Production rose 8.8% YoY.
US Rig Count Impacted SLB and HAL in 1Q18
Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) saw higher revenues from North America in 1Q18—compared to the previous year.
Analyzing National Oilwell Varco’s Growth Drivers
Let’s discuss National Oilwell Varco’s growth drivers. The fall of the Wellbore Technology segment’s operating income was restricted by expense reduction.
SLB, HAL, NOV, and BHGE: Comparing the Capex Growth
National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) capital expenditure or capex fell ~32% in fiscal 2017—compared to its capex spend in fiscal 2016.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Hit September 2015 High
The US crude oil rig count rose by eight to 617 rigs from March 3–10, 2017. The US crude oil rig count has risen 33 times in the last 36 weeks.
Schlumberger’s 7-Day Stock Price Forecast on May 26
Schlumberger stock will likely close between $71.88 and $68.30 in the next seven days. Sclumberger’s stock price was $70.09 on May 26, 2017.
What Schlumberger’s Implied Volatility Suggests
On March 3, 2017, Schlumberger’s implied volatility was 16.5%. Since its 4Q16 financial results were announced, Schlumberger’s implied volatility has fallen marginally.
US Crude Oil Inventories Are near January 2016 Levels
The EIA released its weekly crude oil inventory report on September 28, 2016. US crude oil inventories are near January 2016 levels.
Comparing Net Debt for BHGE and NOV Post-1Q18
In this series, we’ll compare Baker Hughes, a GE company, and National Oilwell Varco, two top oilfield equipment and services companies.
How Does Nabors Industries’ Valuation Compare to Its Peers?
Nabors Industries’ valuation, expressed as a TTM PE (price-to-earnings) multiple, isn’t available due to negative adjusted earnings.
US Crude Oil Rigs Are near a 4-Week Low
Baker Hughes reported that US crude oil rigs declined by seven to 797 on March 23–29, 2018. The rigs are near a four-week low.
Schlumberger’s Stock Price Forecast for the Next 7 Days
Based on its implied volatility, Schlumberger (SLB) stock could close between $65.44 and $70.46 in the next seven days.
Iraq Could Extend the Output Cut Deal to December 2018
On September 19, 2017, Iraq’s oil minister indicated that major producers’ output cut deal would be extended beyond March 2018.
What’s NOV’s 7-Day Stock Price Forecast as of April 17?
On April 17, 2017, National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) implied volatility was ~34%. Since NOV announced its 4Q16 financial results on February 6, 2017, its implied volatility has remained nearly unchanged.
What Do Analysts Expect from Schlumberger’s 1Q17 Earnings?
In 1Q17, analysts expect Schlumberger (SLB) to post adjusted earnings per share (or EPS) of $0.26, a fall of 3% compared to its 4Q16 adjusted EPS of $0.27.
Why the US Crude Oil Rig Count Is near a 3-Month Low
Baker Hughes (BHI) released its weekly US crude oil rig count report on September 15. It reported that the US crude oil rig count fell by seven to 749 between September 8 and September 15.
What PTEN’s Analysts Expect for 2Q17
For 2Q17, analysts expect Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) to report an adjusted loss per share of $0.30. This would mean a cut in its losses from 1Q17.
Will US Shale Oil Production Rise for an 11th Straight Month?
Baker Hughes (BHI) published its weekly US oil and gas count report on October 13. US oil rigs fell by five to 743 from October 6 to 13.
Is Halliburton’s Historical Valuation Justified?
Halliburton’s forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple is lower compared to 1Q17. Analysts expect higher adjusted EBITDA in the next four quarters.
WTI and Brent Crude Oil Prices Hit 2016 High
Crude oil prices rose by ~42% since the lows in February 2016. The major reasons were the slowing US production and the new crude oil production deal.
What Rate Hike Road Is the Fed Really on in 2016? (It Looks Strangely Like 2015)
Policymakers are now hinting toward a rate hike in June. But markets seem to be feeling otherwise.
What Wall Street Analysts Expect from PTEN’s 3Q17 Earnings
In 3Q17, analysts expect an $0.18 adjusted loss per share for Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), which means Wall Street analysts expect PTEN to cut its losses from the 2Q17 adjusted loss of $0.21 per share.
Cushing Inventories Rise for the First Time in 12 Weeks
Cushing is the largest crude oil storage hub in the United States. A market survey estimates that Cushing inventories fell from August 4 to August 11.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Sixth Time in 7 Weeks
US distillate inventories increased for the sixth time in the last seven weeks. The inventories rose ~11% in the last seven weeks.
How Did Crude Oil Prices React to the Last 3 OPEC Meetings?
OPEC’s meeting in Vienna is scheduled on Thursday, June 2, 2015. There aren’t any optimistic cues that the group will reach an agreement to cap production.
What’s Baker Hughes’s Current Valuation versus Peers?
Baker Hughes, a GE Company (BHGE), is the largest company by market capitalization in our select set of major oilfield services and equipment companies.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the First Time in 5 Weeks
The fall in distillate inventories supported diesel and crude oil futures on June 28, 2017. US diesel futures rose 1.4% to $1.43 per gallon on June 28.
How Falling Cushing Crude Inventories Are Impacting Oil Prices
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) will release its crude oil inventory report for the week ending September 2 on September 8, 2016, at 10:30 AM EST.
A Look at SLB and HAL’s Net Debt after 4Q17
In this series, we’ll compare Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL), two of the largest oilfield equipment and services (or OFS) companies.
API’s Crude Oil Inventories: Boon or Bane for Oil Prices?
On May 23, the API will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories could have fallen by 2.3 MMbbls on May 12–19, 2017.
OPEC Could Pressure US Natural Gas Prices in 2018
US natural gas rigs rose 35% in the last 12 months, while US natural gas prices (UNG) fell 20% during this period.
Reality Check: Major Oil Producers’ Output Cut Plans
Crude oil prices have risen ~15% since November 2016 due to the expectation that major oil producers’ production cuts would curb oversupply in the market.
How Halliburton’s Revenues and Earnings Panned Out in 4Q16
In fiscal 2016, Halliburton’s net loss deteriorated to $5.7 billion in 2016 compared to its $671 million net loss in 2015.
Fairmount Santrol: Wall Street’s Forecasts after Its Earnings
On August 3, 2017, after Fairmount Santrol’s 2Q17 earnings were released, ~63% of the analysts tracking the company rated it as a “buy” or some equivalent.
What Wall Street Predicts for Basic Energy Services
On August 1, 2017, ~50% of the sell-side analysts tracking Basic Energy Services rated it a “buy” or some equivalent.
Analysts’ Targets for OFS Stocks with the Best and Worst Returns
Flotek Industries ranks first among our list of OFS companies in terms of stock price returns in 1Q17. All of the sell-side analysts recommended a “buy.”
Monthly US Crude Oil Production Rose Again
US crude oil production rose for the second straight month. Rising US crude oil production could pressure crude oil (USO) (UCO) (USL) (IXC) (ERY) prices.
Will US Crude Oil Futures Fall from 4-Month Highs?
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (RYE) (VDE) futures hit $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016—the lowest level in more than a decade.
Will Gasoline Inventories Support Crude Oil Prices?
For the week ending March 10, 2017, the EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 3.1 MMbbls to 246.3 MMbbls.
Weatherford’s Next 7-Day Stock Price Forecast
On November 24, 2017, Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility (or IV) was 61%.
How TechnipFMC Stock Has Performed
TechnipFMC’s (FTI) one-year returns were 15.5% as of July 10.
Is the US Crude Oil Bull Market Sustainable?
Brent crude oil futures closed at $57.54 per barrel on September 29, 2017. Some OPEC officials think that $60 per barrel for crude oil isn’t sustainable.
Analyzing Schlumberger’s Indebtedness after 3Q17
Schlumberger’s net debt-to-trailing 12-month EBITDA was ~7x in 3Q17. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio (or indebtedness) rose in 3Q17.
Crude Oil Futures Could Breach Key Resistance of $55 per Barrel
WTI crude oil (ERX) (ERY) (XES) futures contracts for May delivery rose 0.1% to $52.4 per barrel in electronic trade at 4:45 AM EST on April 19, 2017.
Will Global Crude Oil Demand Fall in 2017 and 2018?
The IEA downgraded the global crude oil demand estimates for 2017 and 2018, which weighed on oil (USO) (USL) prices on November 14, 2017.
Do US Energy Stocks Look Promising?
Crude oil production continues to rise, and oil prices remain at $50. Despite that, US energy stocks aren’t getting investors’ interest.
Record Inventories at Cushing Could Pressure Crude Oil Prices
WTI crude oil futures contracts for May delivery rose 0.24% and settled at $51.15 per barrel on April 5, 2017. Crude oil prices pared gains on April 5.
Will Crude Oil Prices Break below the 100-Day Moving Average?
So far, crude oil prices and broader markets such as the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) are diverging in 2017. SPY has risen 4% YTD (year-to-date).
Will Russia’s Oil Production Fall in the Coming Months?
Russia’s Energy Ministry reported that its oil production fell in the first half of April 2017 due to major producers’ production cut deal.
Weatherford’s Next-7-Day Stock Price Forecast
On October 27, Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility (or IV) was ~72%. WFT released its 2Q17 financial results on July 28.
Keane Group’s Latest Returns: Must-Knows
Keane Group’s (FRAC) one-year returns were -7.7% as of May 25. In comparison, since May 26, 2017, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) increased 12.0%.
Wall Street’s Forecasts for Halliburton after Low Fiscal 4Q15 Earnings
Approximately 81% of analysts tracking Halliburton have rated it a “buy,” whereas approximately 17% of analysts tracking the company have rated it a “hold.”
Will US Oil Rigs Support Crude Oil Bulls?
US crude oil rigs are near a five-month low. West Texas Intermediate (or WTI) crude oil (UWT) (DWT) prices are down 8.8% year-to-date (or YTD).
What Are Schlumberger’s One-Week Returns?
In the week ending July 27, Schlumberger (SLB) rose 1.4%.
Is the US Crude Oil Rig Count Slowing Down?
Baker Hughes released its weekly US crude oil rig count report on August 4, 2017. The US crude oil rig count fell by one to 765 on July 28–August 4, 2017.
Schlumberger Receives Contract from BP
On March 21, 2017, Schlumberger (SLB) announced that BP (BP) awarded SLB’s OneSubSea an engineering, procurement, and construction (or EPC) contract.
OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Hit a Record
OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 236,700 bpd (barrels per day) to 33,643,000 bpd in October 2016—compared to the previous month.
How Could Donald Trump Impact the US Energy Market?
Donald Trump supports increasing production of fossil fuels like coal, crude oil, and natural gas. It could support employment and benefit the economy.
US Crude Oil Inventories Hit a 7-Month Low
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 6.2 MMbbls to 504.6 MMbbls from September 9–16, 2016. It’s the lowest levels since February 12, 2016.
Crude Oil Prices React to Comments from Kuwait’s OPEC Governor
May WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts rose slightly by 0.5% and settled at $35.89 per barrel on April 5, 2016.
Is Weatherford International’s Net Debt a Concern after 2Q17?
Weatherford International’s (WFT) total debt rose ~6.0% in 2Q17 over 2Q16.
US Crude Oil Futures Are near 3-Week Low: What’s Next?
US crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (IEZ) futures contracts for September delivery fell 0.1% to $47.55 per barrel on August 15, 2017.
Will OPEC’s Meeting Disappoint Crude Oil Traders?
Goldman Sachs predicts that oil (USO) (DWT) prices might fall quickly if there’s any disappointing announcement in OPEC’s meeting.
Why Traders Are Tracking the API’s Crude Oil Inventories
A market survey estimates that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.83 MMbbls on June 23–30, 2017. Gasoline inventories might have fallen by 0.5 MMbbls.
China Gives Leap Year Gift to Banks: Effect on Crude Oil Prices
April WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading on NYMEX rose 3.0% and closed at $33.75 per barrel yesterday. Brent crude oil prices also rose 2.5% and settled at $35.97 per barrel.
US Distillate Inventories and Crude Oil Price Forecasts
The EIA reported that US distillate inventories rose by 0.3 MMbbls to 151.4 MMbbls on June 2–9, 2017. Inventories rose for the third straight week.
US Crude Oil Rigs Reached near March 2015 Highs
Baker Hughes reported that US crude oil rigs increased by seven to 815 on April 6–13, 2018. The rigs are at the highest level since March 20, 2015.
Schlumberger’s One-Week Returns on June 8
In the week ending June 8, Schlumberger (SLB) rose 0.7%. In comparison, XLE, which tracks an index of US energy companies, also rose 0.7%.
National Oilwell Varco’s 7-Day Stock Price Forecast
Since its 1Q17 results on April 26, 2017, National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) implied volatility has increased moderately from 33.0% to 35.0%.
Gasoline Futures Fell from 20-Month Highs
Gasoline futures contracts for May delivery fell 3% to $1.65 per gallon on April 19, 2017. Prices fell due to the surprise build in US gasoline inventories.
Wall Street’s Forecasts for Fairmount Santrol after Its 3Q17 Earnings
On November 2, 2017, after FMSA’s 3Q17 earnings were released, ~59% of the Wall Street analysts tracking Fairmount Santrol Holdings rated it as a “buy.”
National Oilwell Varco’s Forward Valuation Multiple Improved
National Oilwell Varco’s forward PE multiple is positive, which reflects sell-side analysts’ estimates of positive earnings in the next 12 months.
Will Russia’s Crude Oil Production Impact Crude Oil Prices?
Russia is the largest crude oil producer in the world. Its crude oil production was flat at 11.1 MMbpd in February 2017—compared to the previous month.
Record US Crude Oil Inventories: Will the Blood Bath Continue?
A Bloomberg survey estimates that US crude oil inventories could have risen by 3 MMbbls from March 3–10. US crude oil inventories are at an all-time high.
Libya and OPEC Pressure Crude Oil Prices to a 3-Week Low
July WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (USO) (UCO) (XES) futures contracts trading in NYMEX fell 2.7% and closed at $48.32 per barrel on May 31, 2017.
Analyzing Net Debt for the 4 Biggest Oilfield Servies Companies
In fiscal 1Q16, Schlumberger’s (SLB) net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.1. SLB’s indebtedness more than doubled from 0.53 a year ago.
US Distillate Inventories Support Diesel and Crude Oil Futures
US distillate inventories fell for the third time in the last five weeks. Inventories fell 1.4% for the week ending July 14, 2017.
September US Gasoline Consumption Hits Record for This Time of Year
The EIA reported that the four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 36,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,296,000 bpd between September 30 and October 7, 2016.
How’s Schlumberger Valued Compared to Its Peers?
Schlumberger (SLB) is the largest company by market capitalization among our set of select OFS (oilfield equipment and services) companies.
Weatherford’s 7-Day Stock Price Forecast
On September 12, Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility was 49.3%. Since its 2Q17 financial results were declared on July 28, WFT’s implied volatility (or IV) has fallen from ~62% to the current level.
Oil Prices, World Oil Consumption, and Global Economic Growth
Steady world oil consumption would support oil prices in 2017. The change in world consumption is expected to average 1.6% in 2017.
How Will the US Dollar Affect Crude Oil Prices in 2017?
February 2017 WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (PXI) (ERX) (USL) (ERY) futures contracts rose 0.1% and settled at $53 per barrel on December 23, 2016.
Crude Oil Prices Trade Flat Due to Lower Crude Oil Stocks
Brent crude oil futures rose slightly by 0.3% to $39.26 per barrel. Crude oil prices rose marginally due to a less-than-expected rise in US crude inventories.
Schlumberger’s Next-7-Day Stock Price Forecast
On March 2, 2018, Schlumberger’s (SLB) implied volatility was 27.1%.
Schlumberger’s One-Week Returns as of June 29
In the week ended June 29, Schlumberger (SLB) stock rose 0.7%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 1.1% during the week.
Schlumberger by Implication: Reading Implied Volatility
On March 10, 2017, Schlumberger’s (SLB) implied volatility was 17.7%, having fallen from 19% since its 4Q16 financial results were announced on January 20.
Forecast for Halliburton’s 7-Day Price on July 14
On July 14, 2017, Halliburton’s (HAL) implied volatility was ~26%. Halliburton stock will likely close between $45.84 and $42.60 in the next seven days.
US Crude Oil Production Could Hit a Record
The EIA reported that US crude oil production rose by 32,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,429,000 bpd on July 7–14, 2017. Production is at a two-year high.
Crude Oil Futures: What Could Drive Volatility This Week?
US crude oil (DWT) (UCO) futures hit $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017—the highest level in nearly three years.
Schlumberger’s 7-Day Stock Price Forecast as of March 31
Since Schlumberger (SLB) announced its 4Q16 financial results on January 20, 2017, its implied volatility has risen from 17.1% to 17.6% as of March 31, 2017.
Forecasting Schlumberger’s Stock Price
On April 20, Schlumberger’s (SLB) 1Q18 financial results were released, and its implied volatility was 24.1%.
US Crude Oil Production Fell for the First Time since February
US crude oil production fell by 9,000 bpd to 9,305,000 bpd on May 5–12, 2017. Production fell 0.1% week-over-week, but rose 5.8% year-over-year.
US Crude Oil Rigs Are Steady near March 2015 Highs
Baker Hughes reported that US crude oil rigs were flat at 844 on May 11–18—the highest level since March 13, 2015.
US Crude Oil Rigs Are near a 6-Month Low
On November 3, 2017, Baker Hughes published the US oil rig count report. It estimated that US oil rigs fell by eight to 729 on October 27–November 3, 2017.
OPEC’s Monthly Report Could Pressure Oil Prices
OPEC will release its Monthly Oil Market Report on July 12, 2017. OPEC’s crude oil production rose in June 2017.
OPEC’s Plan for a Production Cut Exit Strategy
OPEC’s crude oil production was steady at 32.47 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in December 2017, according to a Bloomberg survey.
OPEC’s Crude Oil Production and Strategy Ahead of Its Meeting
A Bloomberg survey reported that that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 484,000 bpd to 33.2 MMbpd in April 2016—compared to the previous month.
How Hedge Funds Feel about Natural Gas Right Now
On September 29, the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) is slated to release its weekly “Commitment of Traders” report.
Why US Natural Gas Traders Are Tracking OPEC’s Production
Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.