Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3x Shares

Here’s how Direxion ETFs can help you cut your losses and generate alpha. Take a closer look at the S&P 500 and key indicators from the first half of 2019.

After oil ran up in early July to over $75 per barrel, it has been heading straight down since then (below $65 as of the writing of this article).

From the presidential election in November 2016 through August 2017, the energy sector saw its worst time.

The energy sector, as tracked by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), has lost ~17.0% year-to-date as of August 31.

The EIA estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production fell by 150,000 bpd to 32.77 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in August 2017—compared to July 2017.

A market survey estimates that Cushing crude oil inventories has risen between September 8 and September 15.

Let’s track some important events for crude oil and natural gas traders from September 11 to 15, 2017.

 US gasoline inventories The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that US gasoline inventories rose 35,000 barrels to 229.9 MMbbls (million barrels) between August 18 and 25, 2017. Inventories fell 2.1 MMbbls, or 0.9%, from the same period in 2016. For the third time in five weeks, inventories rose. A market survey estimated that US gasoline […]

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported on Friday, August 25, that hedge funds have cut back their bullish positions in US crude futures and options.

A Reuters survey estimated that US crude oil inventories would fall 3.5 MMbbls between August 11, 2017, and August 18, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose by 50,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 10.20 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in July 2017 compared to the previous month.

US active crude oil (PXI) (ERY) (FXN) futures hit $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016—the lowest level in more than 13 years.

Let’s track some important events for oil and gas traders from August 14 to 18, 2017.

The EIA released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on August 8, 2017. It estimates that US crude oil production could average 9.35 MMbpd in 2017.

Saudi Arabia is expected to cut exports 10% to North Asian refiners in September 2017 due to OPEC’s production cut deal.

September US crude oil prices are on a rollercoaster ride in 2017 due to bullish and bearish drivers. US crude oil prices are near a two-month high.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell 1.1% or by 2.5 MMbbls (million barrels) to 227.7 MMbbls on July 21–28, 2017.

The EIA (US Energy Information Administration) estimates that US gasoline demand rose 1.5% to 9.6 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in May 2017 compared to May 2016.

The EIA reported that US crude oil production fell by 19,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,410,000 bpd on July 14–21, 2017.

Hedge funds increased their net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options rose by 36,834 contracts to 215,488 contracts on July 11–18, 2017.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 4.4 MMbbls (million barrels) to 231.2 MMbbls on July 7–14, 2017.

Saudi Arabia is the largest crude oil producer and exporter among the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) member countries.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell 1.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 235.6 MMbbls between June 30, 2017, and July 7, 2017.

August WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts rose 1.0% and closed at $45.49 per barrel on Wednesday, July 12, 2017.

OPEC will release its Monthly Oil Market Report on July 12, 2017. OPEC’s crude oil production rose in June 2017.

Hedge funds increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options by 16,345 contracts to 149,951 contracts on June 27–July 4, 2017.

Cushing inventories could have fallen on June 30–July 7, 2017. Crude oil inventories at Cushing have fallen for the seventh straight week.

The EIA reported that US distillate inventories fell by 1.8 MMbbls (million barrels) or 1.2% to 150.4 MMbbls on June 23–30, 2017.

Iran’s crude oil exports are expected to fall 7% in July 2017, according to Reuters. Exports are expected to fall to 1.86 MMbpd in July 2017.

So far this year, the S&P 500 energy sector has struggled mightily, down 12% versus an almost 9.5% gain in the S&P500 this year.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 0.1 MMbbls to 241 MMbbls on June 16–23, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that weekly US gasoline demand rose by 547,000 bpd or 6% to 9,816,000 bpd on June 9–16, 2017.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options on June 13–20.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) will release weekly data on crude oil and gasoline inventories on June 28, 2017.

ETF Securities A return to backwardation? Among the three components of total return when investing in futures contracts (price return, roll yield, and collateral yield), the roll yield for the energy sector has been a continuous performance drag over the last decade (see “Drag on performance” chart below). Oil futures markets are most often in […]

A recent survey estimated that inventories at Cushing could have fallen on June 2–9, 2017. Inventories at Cushing fell for the seventh time in ten weeks.

Between May 30 and June 6, 2017, the US dollar (UUP) (USDU) (UDN) fell 0.7%, and crude oil (USO) (OIIL) July futures fell 3%.

The EIA estimates that US gasoline consumption averaged 9,600,000 bpd (barrels per day) in May 2017—0.16 MMbpd higher than the same period in 2016.

The EIA estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand rose by 124,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,430,000 bpd on May 12–19, 2017.

In the trailing week, the US dollar fell 0.1%. Despite a fall in the US dollar, crude oil July futures fell 3.5% between May 23 and May 30, 2017.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) July futures rose 5% between May 16 and May 23, 2017.

2016 proved fruitful for the energy sector (XLE) with an improvement in oil prices (USO) (USL).

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) futures contracts for June 2017 delivery rose 3.7% between May 10 and May 17, 2017.

US gasoline futures contracts for June delivery fell 0.1% to $1.60 per gallon on May 17, 2017. Prices fell due to a lower fall in US gasoline inventories.

US crude oil production fell by 9,000 bpd to 9,305,000 bpd on May 5–12, 2017. Production fell 0.1% week-over-week, but rose 5.8% year-over-year.

On May 16, 2017, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories rose by 0.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on May 5–12, 2017.

The US energy sector contributed to ~6.3% of the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) on May 12, 2017.

US refineries operated at 91.5% of their operable capacity in the week ending May 5, 2017. The US refinery demand fell for the second consecutive week.

US crude oil futures contracts for June 2017 delivery fell 3.7% between May 2, and May 9, 2017, while the US Dollar Index rose 0.7%.

June gasoline futures contracts rose 1.3% to $1.53 per gallon on May 3, 2017. Prices rose due to the less-than-expected rise in US gasoline inventories.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) futures contracts for June 2017 delivery fell 3.8% between April 25, 2017, and May 2, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 80,000 bpd to 9,237,000 bpd on April 14–21.

June WTI crude oil futures contracts fell 0.40% and were trading at $48.68 per barrel in electronic trade at 2:35 AM EST on May 2, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil production rose by 13,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,265,000 bpd on April 14–21.

US crude oil futures contracts for June delivery fell 6.2% between April 18, 2017, and April 25, 2017. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index fell 0.7%.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand rose by 6,000 bpd to 9,317,000 bpd on April 7–14.

Gasoline futures contracts for May delivery fell 3% to $1.65 per gallon on April 19, 2017. Prices fell due to the surprise build in US gasoline inventories.

US crude oil futures contracts for June delivery fell 1.7% between April 11, 2017, and April 18, 2017. The US Dollar Index fell 1.2% during that period.

WTI crude oil (ERX) (ERY) (XES) futures contracts for May delivery rose 0.1% to $52.4 per barrel in electronic trade at 4:45 AM EST on April 19, 2017.

The EIA estimates that Iran’s crude oil production was flat at 3.8 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in March 2017—compared to February 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline inventories fell 2.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 236.1 MMbbls between March 31, 2017, and April 7, 2017.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) futures contracts for May delivery rose 4.6% between April 4, 2017, and April 11, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 1.6 MMbbls to 535.5 MMbbls from March 24–31, 2017.

US crude oil futures contracts for May delivery rose 5.5% between March 28, 2017, and April 4, 2017. The US Dollar Index rose 0.9% during that period.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 3.7 MMbbls to 239.7 MMbbls from March 17–24, 2017.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) futures contracts for May delivery fell 0.2% between March 14, 2017, and March 21, 2017.

On March 21, 2017, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. It reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.5 MMbbls from March 10–17.

The energy sector contributed to ~6.5% of the S&P 500 on March 17, 2017. Oil and gas producers’ earnings depend on crude oil and natural gas prices.

US crude oil imports fell by 745,000 bpd to 7,405,000 bpd from March 3–10, 2017. Imports fell 9.1% week-over-week and 3.7% year-over-year.

US crude oil futures contracts for April delivery fell 10.2% between March 7, 2017, and March 14, 2017.

The EIA estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand rose by 82,000 bpd to 8,763,000 bpd between February 24, 2017, and March 3, 2017.

The EIA reported that US distillate inventories fell by 2.7 MMbbls (million barrels) to 161.5 MMbbls between February 24, 2017, and March 3, 2017.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 1.5 MMbbls to 520.2 MMbbls from February 17–24, 2017.

US crude oil futures contracts for April delivery fell 0.6% between February 21 and February 28, 2017. The US Dollar Index fell 0.2% during that period.

Major producers’ production cut deal led to a fall in OPEC’s crude oil production by 30,000 bpd to 32.19 MMbpd in February 2017—compared to January 2017.

On February 22, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. It reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 0.88 MMbbls from February 10–17.

US crude oil futures contracts for April delivery rose 1.6% between February 14 and February 21, 2017. The US Dollar Index didn’t change during that period.

US crude oil futures contracts for March delivery rose 2% between February 7, 2017, and February 14, 2017. The US dollar rose ~1% during that period.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 0.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 256.2 MMbbls between January 27, 2017, and February 3, 2017.

Crude oil prices rose between November 15 and December 28, 2016, due to the expectation that major oil producers’ production cuts would curb oversupply.

The EIA estimates that Iran’s crude oil production rose by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 3,720,000 bpd in December 2016—compared to the previous month.

Tortoise Capital Advisors thinks that US WTI and Brent crude oil prices could trade between $50 and $60 per barrel in 2017.

The EIA reported that US refinery crude oil demand rose by 418,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 17,107,000 bpd between December 30, 2016, and January 6, 2017.

Despite skepticism about the efficacy of OPEC’s agreement, we think that oil (USO) (UCO) is set to rise in the medium term.

February WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts fell 0.2% to $53.2 per barrel in electronic trade at 4:50 AM EST on January 5, 2017.

The EIA estimates that the world oil supply and demand gap averaged 780,000 bpd (barrels per day) in 1H16. It’s expected to average 650,000 bpd in 2H16.

Figures from the EIA suggest that non-OPEC crude oil production rose by 350,805 bpd to 44.6 MMbpd in September 2016—compared to the previous month.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that global crude oil supply outages fell by 408,000 bpd to 2,332,000 bpd in October 2016.

Goldman Sachs expects that US WTI crude oil prices will average $55 per barrel in 1H17—compared to past estimates of $47.5 per barrel for the same period.

The expectations of a rise in crude oil production from Iraq will have a negative impact on crude oil prices in the oversupplied market.

For the week ending November 11, the EIA reported that Cushing crude oil inventories rose by 0.7 MMbbls to 59.2 MMbbls—compared to the previous week.

The EIA reported that monthly US crude oil production rose by 510,000 bpd to 8,744,000 bpd in August 2016—compared to the previous month.

OPEC released its Annual Report on November 8, 2016. It reported that crude oil demand will rise in 2017 to 95.3 MMbpd (million barrels per day).

Oil and gas exploration and production companies’ performances have been poor over the trailing-five-day and trailing-one-month periods due to lower crude oil prices.

Donald Trump supports increasing production of fossil fuels like coal, crude oil, and natural gas. It could support employment and benefit the economy.

US natural gas supplies fell 0.4% to 77.2 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day between October 27 and November 2, 2016.

December NY Harbor ULSD futures fell 3.3% and settled at $1.46 per gallon on November 2. Diesel futures fell despite the decline in distillate inventories.

A large rise in US crude oil inventories pressured crude oil prices. OPEC’s struggle with its plans to cap production pressured crude oil prices.

The EIA reported that the weekly US gasoline demand rose 320,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,118,000 bpd from October 14–21, 2016.

The US Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 98.3 on October 28, 2016. It fell due to political uncertainty in the US. It had risen earlier in the morning on October 28.