Comstock Resources Inc
Why natural gas rigs aren’t likely to rise much through year-end
Natural gas rigs remain down since the beginning of the year, with no major catalyst for them to increase in the medium term.
Cold weather and bullish inventories boosted natural gas prices
Natural gas prices rose last week in response to a bullish inventory report and expected cold weather.
Why higher natural gas rig counts may be a positive signal
U.S. natural gas rigs remain elevated 10% since late June.
Must-know: Why natural gas prices had another strong rally
Natural gas continued to climb on the week, as the markets expected cold weather to boost demand, a positive short-term and medium-term indicator.
Crude Oil Traders Are Closely Watching These Bearish Drivers
In the previous two parts of this series, we covered bullish drivers for crude oil prices. Now let’s look at some key bearish drivers for crude oil prices in 2016.
What Are the Key Bearish Drivers for Crude Oil Prices in 2016?
Multiyear low crude oil prices impact domestic and international oil producers’ margins like PetroChina, Comstock Resources, Whiting Petroleum, and Denbury Resources.
Will EIA’s Crude Oil Inventories Data Follow API Data?
November WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts rose 1.4% to $51 per barrel in electronic trade at 5:20 AM EST on October 19, 2016.
Natural Gas: Up for the Second Day on Cold Weather Forecasts
Natural gas futures for May delivery rose for the second day by 1.20% and settled at $2.60 per MMBtu on April 22, 2015.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Rise in September?
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions on US natural gas futures and options contracts by 2,511 contracts to 81,683 on August 15–22, 2017.
Understanding Falling US Distillate Inventories
The EIA estimates that US distillate inventories fell 0.8 MMbbls (million barrels) to 138.0 MMbbls from September 15–22, 2017.
OPEC and Russia: More Negative Forces for Crude Oil Market
The EIA reported that OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 510,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.7 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2016.
API Crude Oil Stocks Could Add More Pain for Crude Oil Prices
On April 19, the API will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. The US crude oil inventory rose by 6.22 MMbbls for the week ending April 8, 2016.
Natural Gas Prices Are Trading Close to $2 per MMBtu
November natural gas futures contracts are following their long-term downward trend. Prices are trading close to the key support of $2 per MMBtu.
Will Saudi Arabia Remove Excess Oil from the Market?
Saudi Arabia is expected to cut exports 10% to North Asian refiners in September 2017 due to OPEC’s production cut deal.
Must-know: Why natural gas prices fell 6% last week
This past week, natural gas prices decreased by $0.25 per MMBtu. Natural gas prices remain low in a long term perspective despite last week’s great slip.
What’s the Long-Term US Natural Gas Price Forecast?
In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA forecast that the US natural gas supply-demand balance could average around 2.9 Bcf per day in 2016.
Gasoline Inventories and Consumption Impact Crude Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories rose by 2.8 MMbbls to 259.1 MMbbls from February 3–10. US gasoline inventories are at the highest levels ever.
Gasoline Inventories Impact Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
The API released its weekly inventory report on December 20. It estimates that US gasoline inventories fell by 1.96 MMbbls from December 9–16, 2016.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions in US Crude Oil Rose Again
Hedge funds increased their net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options rose by 36,834 contracts to 215,488 contracts on July 11–18, 2017.
Will API Inventory Report Limit Upside for Crude Oil Prices?
November WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts rose 0.32% to $50.97 per barrel in electronic trade at 5:10 AM EST on October 12, 2016.
Is the Supply Side of the Crude Oil Market Rebalancing?
Citigroup estimates that global crude oil supply outages could currently be around 3.5 MMbpd (million barrels per day).
How Did Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and SPY Fare Last Week?
For the week ended July 8, 2016, August natural gas futures (UNG) (FCG) (UGAZ) (DGAZ) (BOIL) fell by 6.2%.
How Cushing Inventories and OPEC Are Pressuring Crude Prices
January 2017 WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts fell 2.3% and settled at $49.77 per barrel on December 7, 2016.
Natural gas prices plummet to lowest point since February
Natural gas prices closed down sharply given a larger than expected inventory draw and milder weather.
Natural gas drilling activity likely to remain muted
Natural gas targeted drilling in the US is likely to remain muted given the relatively low prices.
Will Natural Gas Prices Hold above $2 per MMBtu
Long-term bearish momentum is dragging natural gas prices to record lows. All the fundamental drivers are supporting the bearish traders.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Fell in April: What’s Next?
Russia is the largest crude oil producer in the world. Russia’s production fell by 50,000 bpd to 11 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in April 2017.
Natural gas rig counts see largest weekly increase since September
Baker Hughes, an oilfield services company, reported that rigs targeting natural gas rose last week, from 335 to 345 for the week ended March 7, 2014
Bottom Fishing: Natural Gas Prices Could Rally
The long-term bearish momentum could cause natural gas prices to fall, and the next support for natural gas prices could be seen at $2 per MMBtu.
Fall in US Refinery Demand and Imports Impacted Inventories
US refineries operated at 91.5% of their operable capacity in the week ending May 5, 2017. The US refinery demand fell for the second consecutive week.
Cushing Inventories Hit February 2015 Low
A Bloomberg survey estimated that the crude oil inventories at Cushing could have fallen by 1.5 MMbbls between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018.
Will Natural Gas Prices Make a U-turn at $2.3 per MMBtu?
The consensus of rising natural gas inventory could push natural gas prices lower than the key resistance of $2.30 MMBtu.
Gasoline Inventories Could Fall from All-Time High Levels
The API released its weekly inventory report on February 22, 2017. It estimated that US gasoline inventories fell by 0.9 MMbbls from February 10–17, 2017.
Natural gas prices took another dive with a warm weather outlook
Natural gas prices plummeted last week, as forecasts showed mild weather in early November. This is a negative for gas demand.
Natural gas rig counts slid again, reflecting producer sentiment
Natural rig counts dropped again last week, and are down 14% year to date.
OPEC’s Crude Oil Exports: Bullish or Bearish for Traders?
Reuters estimates that OPEC’s crude oil exports rose by 450,000 bpd to 25.92 MMbpd in June 2017—compared to the previous month.
Why did natural gas prices take a tumble over the week?
Natural gas prices fell on a bearish inventory report, closing at $4.53 per MMBtu for the week ended May 9, 2014—down from the $4.67 per MMBtu close the prior week.
What Are the Implied Volatilities of Crude Oil and Natural Gas?
Crude oil’s (USO) (OIIL) implied volatility was 41.3% on July 8, 2016.
Nat gas rigs almost flat for fifth week in a row – a sign that counts have bottomed out?
Natural gas rigs drilling were almost flat again last week, the fifth week in a row that rigs drilling were generally flat.
Natural rig counts rose, breaking out of a weeks-long flat trend
Natural gas rigs rose last week, after trending flat for eight weeks.
Natural gas prices stay under $5 per MMBtu as winter weather ends
The front month contract for natural gas closed at $4.43 per MMBtu (millions of British thermal units) on March 14, marginally lower than the prior week’s close of $4.61 per MMBtu.
Natural gas rigs rose yet again – possible reversal of downward trend?
Natural gas rigs rose for the second week in a row, potentially signalling an end to the trend of declining natural gas rigs drilling.
Upstream Gainers This Week: Gulfport Energy Leads
As of June 26, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) had risen ~6.9% from last week’s close of $11.62 to $12.42, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $10.31 and $11.59, respectively.
Why US Crude Oil Production Rose Last Week
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly crude oil inventory report on September 13.
Analyzing Hedge Funds’ Net Long Position on US Crude Oil
Hedge funds increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options by 16,345 contracts to 149,951 contracts on June 27–July 4, 2017.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the Second Straight Week
The EIA reported that US distillate inventories fell by 1.8 MMbbls (million barrels) or 1.2% to 150.4 MMbbls on June 23–30, 2017.
Analyzing US Gasoline Inventories and Gasoline Demand
US gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 MMbbls to 242.3 MMbbls on June 2–9, 2017. Inventories rose 0.9% week-over-week and 2.3% year-over-year.
Iran’s Crude Oil Production: Highest in the Last 7 Years
The EIA estimates that Iran’s crude oil production rose by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 3,800,000 bpd in February 2017—compared to the previous month.
Decoding the World Oil Supply and Demand Gap in 2017
The EIA estimates that the world oil supply and demand gap averaged 780,000 bpd (barrels per day) in 1H16. It’s expected to average 650,000 bpd in 2H16.
US Crude Oil Prices Pressure Gasoline Futures
January gasoline futures fell 1.3% to $1.53 per gallon on December 14, 2016. Prices fell due to the rise in US gasoline inventories.
Why Did US Diesel Futures Rise This Week?
October NY Harbor ULSD futures rose 1.7% on September 21, 2016. Diesel futures rose despite the larger-than-expected rise in distillate inventories.
US On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices Fell Again
The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices were down 0.4% to $2.39 per gallon on September 12, 2016—compared to the previous week.
US On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices Fell for the Tenth Time in 11 Weeks
The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices were down 0.1% to $2.40 per gallon on September 5, 2016—compared to the previous week.
How Did Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Perform?
On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to July 25, 2016, natural gas rose 65.2%.
Upstream Stocks with High and Low Implied Volatilities
On July 25, 2016, Halcón Resources (HK) had the highest implied volatility among the upstream stocks. HK’s implied volatility was ~782.1%.
US Natural Gas Inventories Could Pressure Natural Gas Prices
The larger-than-expected rise in US natural gas inventories weighed on natural gas prices on July 14 and July 15.
India’s Crude Oil Demand Growth Is at Its Highest in 10 Years
India’s Petroleum, Planning, and Analysis Cell reported that India’s crude oil consumption was at 48.5 million tons between April 2016 and June 2016.
What Does a Portfolio of Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Look Like?
Between July 1 and July 11, 2016, an equally weighted basket of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.2%. These stocks operate with a production mix of at least 60% in natural gas.
Which Stocks Are Most Affected by Natural Gas Prices?
Upstream companies that correlated most closely with natural gas futures between May 27 and June 27, 2016, include Southwestern Energy (SWN) and Range Resources (RRC).
Natural Gas Keeps Outperforming Broader Markets and Crude Oil
For the week ended June 24, 2016, July natural gas futures (UNG) (FCG) rose by 1.5%.
Brent and WTI Crude Oil Prices Moved in the Same Direction
Crude oil prices fell for the first time in the last three days due to uncertainty about the United Kingdom’s future in the European Union.
Weather Drove Natural Gas Prices in June 2016
July natural gas futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 1.6% on June 17. Natural gas prices rose due to an expected rise in demand.
Why Did Natural Gas Prices Rise Almost 34% since Late May?
Natural gas prices hit nearly a nine-month high of $2.63 MMBtu on June 9, 2016. It was the highest level since September 2015.
Why Is Nigeria Overshadowing the Crude Oil Market?
July WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 1.4% and settled at $50.36 per barrel on Tuesday, June 7, 2016.
US Crude Oil Production Fell for 15th Straight Week: What’s Next?
Monthly US crude oil production peaked at 9.7 MMbpd in April 2015—the highest level since the 1970s. US crude oil production hit its lowest level since September 5, 2014, in the week ended May 6, 2016.
Pressure for Crude Oil Prices? Inventory Rose for the Seventh Week
The EIA reported that the US crude oil inventory rose by 2.3 MMbbls (million barrels) to 534.8 MMbbls between March 18, 2016, and March 25, 2016.
What’s the Long-Term Forecast for Natural Gas Prices?
US natural gas prices have fallen for the third time in the last five trading sessions. Prices are following the long-term bearish trend and trading close to 16-year lows.
Bearish Momentum Could Push Natural Gas Prices to Fresh Lows
The EIA estimates that natural gas prices could average around $2.69 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) in 2015 and $3 per MMBtu in 2016.
Will Natural Gas Prices Test October’s Lows?
Prices for natural gas could test the next support of $2 per MMBtu as it appears that natural gas prices are trading within a downward trending channel.
Will Natural Gas Prices Hit New Lows?
Cold winter weather could drive natural gas prices higher. But on the other hand, record natural gas stocks will push natural gas prices lower.
Natural Gas Prices Hit a New Monthly Low before the EIA’s Report
Natural gas futures contracts for August delivery fell by 1.1% on Wednesday. Natural gas prices fell for the third day and settled at $2.69 per MMBtu on July 8.
Natural Gas Struggles in a Narrow Range: Last 5 Trading Sessions
Natural gas futures contracts for August delivery settled closer to the key support level of $2.70 MMBtu as of July 1. They’re trading in a narrow range.
Why natural gas rig counts went up marginally for the past week
The drop in natural gas rigs year-to-date (or YTD) represents the continuation of a trend that has been ongoing since late 2011, when natural gas rigs topped 900.
Why winter’s end is beginning to affect natural gas prices
Natural gas prices have been relatively stable over the past few trading sessions, after several weeks of volatility due to extreme weather.
Why natural gas prices soared last week to close at $5.21 per MMBtu
Natural gas traded up by more than 9% on the week due to a bullish inventory report and cold weather. Natural gas has been trading at low levels over the past few years.
Must-know: Important recent drivers of natural gas prices
Natural gas prices fell last week, mostly on forecasts of incoming milder weather. The front month contract for natural gas closed at $4.78 per MMBtu.
Why natural gas prices have rallied over the past few weeks
Natural gas prices have rallied for the past few weeks, up nearly 30% since early November, which is positive for natural gas producers.
Must-know: Number of natural gas rigs drilling continues to drop
Total natural gas rigs continued to drop last week and remain down over 15% since the beginning of the year. They’re unlikely to increase much in the near term.
Natural gas slides third consecutive week, closes back under $4.00/MMBtu
Natural gas prices continued to slide last week, for the third consecutive week in a row.