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Why It’s No Surprise that Alcoa Cut Aluminum Demand Guidance
Alcoa has revised down its 2016 global aluminum demand growth projection to 5%.

Could Alcoa’s Split Create Shareholder Value?
As an Alcoa (AA) shareholder, you might like to know whether the split will create value. The value, in this case, would basically mean whether the two separate companies would be worth more than the combined entity.

Why the Aluminum Supply Deficit Is Not Causing Premiums to Strengthen
US Midwest aluminum premiums are currently quoted at $0.07 per pound. Premiums have fallen slightly in July and are now down more than 22% year-to-date.

Why Alumina Prices Are a Challenge for Alcoa
The decline in alumina prices is a concern for Alcoa. The profitability of its alumina operations would be hit due to lower alumina prices.

How Integrated Operations Would Be Alcoa’s Competitive Advantage
Alcoa (AA) has integrated operations. Under the current market scenario, integrated operations could become Alcoa’s competitive advantage.

What Analysts Expect from Century Aluminum’s 3Q15 Earnings
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Century Aluminum is expected to post revenues of $445.7 million in its 3Q15 earnings release. In 2Q15, it had net revenues of $523.5 million.

How Does Alcoa’s Record Aluminum Deficit Projection Look?
Earlier, Alcoa projected a 1.1 million metric ton deficit for global aluminum markets. It revised down its deficit projection during its 2Q16 conference call.

Aluminum Executives Discuss the Industry Outlook
For commodity companies like Rio Tinto (RIO), the industry outlook is as important, if not more important, than the company’s position in the industry.

Aluminum Industry Outlook: What Do Top Executives Have to Say?
Aluminum industry outlook For commodity companies like Rio Tinto (RIO), industry outlook is as important—if not more important—than the company’s position in the industry. Let’s see what senior aluminum executives have had to say about the aluminum industry’s outlook during their companies’ 3Q16 earnings calls. Century Aluminum Century Aluminum (CENX) expects two million metric tons […]

Will the Demand-Supply Mismatch Spur Chinese Aluminum Exports?
China’s unwrought aluminum exports rose 20.4% YoY in August. Although the increase is a concern, things aren’t as bad as suggested by the big YoY spike.

Was Alcoa Smart to Sell Mt. Holly Smelter to Century Aluminum?
In 2014, Alcoa (AA) sold its stake in the Mt. Holly smelter to Century Aluminum (CENX).

Key Takeaways from Alcoa’s 4Q16 Earnings Call
The question of restarting US plants cropped up during Alcoa’s 4Q16 earnings call. However, Alcoa’s management sounded wary.

Must Know: What Value Can Elliott Management Add to Alcoa?
Elliott Management noted that it plans to engage in a “constructive dialogue” with Alcoa’s (AA) board regarding Alcoa’s split transaction and “additional available opportunities to maximize shareholder value.”

How Alumina Prices Affect Century Aluminum
Alcoa (AA) is an integrated aluminum producer like Rio Tinto (RIO) and Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) and produces alumina and aluminum (DBB).

Aluminum Companies’ Valuation: Key Investor Takeaways
Alcoa’s (AA) valuation has fallen over the last year. Currently, it trades at a discount to its five-year average. The valuation fell for a reason.

Should Lower Alumina Prices Bother Alcoa and Other Producers?
Although lower alumina prices might not immediately lead to a decline in aluminum prices, they certainly could limit aluminum’s upside.

How Do Aluminum Producers Look Going into 3Q16?
Most aluminum producers’ earnings were received well by markets. Alcoa (AA) saw an upward price action of 5.4% after its earnings release.

How Analysts Are Rating CENX Leading Up to Its 4Q16 Results
In this article, we’ll analyze how analysts are rating Century Aluminum leading up to its 4Q16 earnings.

Watch for the Effect of Commodity Prices on Alcoa, Arconic
Alcoa (AA) is gearing up for its split, which is scheduled in the second half of 2016. After the split, the value-added company—which will be named Arconic—will produce precision components and other value-added products.

Alunorte Shutdown: Norsk Hydro’s Pain Is Alcoa’s Gain
Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) has announced a production halt at its Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil.

Supply Uncertainty: Aluminum Takes the Baton from Copper
In 2018, analysts expected disruptions in the copper supply. However, the copper supply has been resilient in 2018.

Can Century Aluminum Continue Its Rise?
Century Aluminum (CENX) was among the best-performing aluminum stocks in 2016, with gains of 94%.

Rio’s Aluminum Division Didn’t Bow to Commodity Price Pressures
Rio Tinto’s (RIO) Aluminum division contributed 19% of its 1H16 underlying EBITDA (or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization).

Alcoa Maintains 2017 Guidance, Ups Demand Forecast
Alcoa (AA) expects to generate adjusted EBITDA between $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion in fiscal 2017. Alcoa assumed aluminum prices at $1,900 per metric ton.

Will Elliott Management Start Taking an Active Interest in Alcoa?
Elliott Management plans to engage in a “constructive dialogue” with Alcoa’s board about Alcoa’s split transaction and “additional available opportunities to maximize shareholder value.”

Is the Physical Aluminum Market Really Tightening?
Weak sentiment in physical aluminum markets could be a reason behind the divergence between Alcoa (AA) and aluminum prices.

What Do Aluminum Executives Think about the Industry Outlook?
While aluminum demand is still rising, there are varying estimates about aluminum consumption.

Capacity Curtailments Could Help Increase Alcoa’s Cost Positioning
Alcoa is working to reduce the unit production costs for its plants. If this is not possible, the company could idle these plants.

Markets Will Await These Updates from Alcoa’s 1Q17 Earnings Call
In 1Q17, there were rumors that Rio Tinto (RIO) could acquire Alcoa.

How Does Alcoa’s Valuation Look Going into 2017?
Currently, Alcoa is trading at 8.6x its forward EBITDA. This valuation multiple looks somewhat aggressive for a pure-play commodity producer.

Why the Fed’s Rate Hike Could Impact Aluminum Prices
The unwinding of aluminum financing deals could have a negative impact on aluminum prices. Earnings of aluminum producers such as Alcoa (AA) are sensitive to aluminum prices.

Better-Than-Expected Earnings and Guidance Couldn’t Lift Arconic
In 2Q17, Arconic generated adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) of $444 million, up 3% as compared to the corresponding period last year.

Alcoa’s 1Q17 Earnings: What Investors Need to Know
Alcoa (AA) released its 1Q17 earnings on April 24 after the markets (MDY) (MID-INDEX) closed. It held the conference call the same day.

Is a Rising Chinese Aluminum Supply a Risk for Alcoa Investors?
During their 2Q16 earnings calls, Century Aluminum (CENX) and Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) expressed concern over higher Chinese supply in the second half of the year.

A Look at Alcoa’s Technical Indicators before Its 3Q16 Release
Alcoa’s technical indicators To make market entry and exit decisions, traders and investors analyze technical indicators. Resistance and support levels are among the most commonly used technical indicators. Resistance level Support levels typically act as a floor for stock prices. As a stock approaches its support levels, more buyers emerge while selling pressure generally subsides. […]

What Challenges Could Alcoa’s Post-Split Upstream Business Face?
After the split, the new Alcoa (AA) will house the business units that are currently under the Primary Metals and Alumina segments. We’ll look at the challenges that Alcoa could face once it is listed as a separate company.

Why Alcoa Is Apprehensive about President Trump’s Tariffs
Alcoa (AA) posted record EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) in the second quarter.

How US Aluminum Markets Have Changed after Section 232 Tariffs
In this series, we’ll see how the US aluminum markets have changed since the Trump administration’s implementation of its Section 232 tariffs.

Does Century Aluminum’s Risk-Reward Proposition Look Attractive?
Alcoa (AA) and Century Aluminum (CENX) are trading with double-digit year-to-date losses despite the Section 232 tariffs President Trump imposed.

Is the Sell-Off in US Aluminum Producers Justified?
We saw a sharp sell-off in the equity markets last week. The key driver has been the risk of a trade war.

Did the Tariffs Dent Aluminum Market Sentiments?
The Section 232 findings were released on February 16. Between February 19 and March 16, LME aluminum has fallen ~$200 per metric ton.

US Aluminum Producers after Section 232 Tariffs
President Trump has imposed a tariff of 10% on aluminum imports—based on the Department of Commerce’s Section 232 investigation.

Alcoa Continues Its Rally as China Keeps Its Commitment
China exported 370,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminum in September, compared to 410,000 metric tons in August.

China’s Aluminum Exports Data Could Help Alcoa
In the first eight months of 2017, Chinese aluminum exports were 3.26 million metric tons—5.8% higher than the same period the previous year.

Aluminum’s Outlook: What Investors Can Expect
Aluminum prices have been strong in 2017 and have built on last year’s gains. The entire industrial metals space has come a long way since 1Q16.

Is China Cutting Aluminum Capacity? Analyzing Producers’ Views
As we noted previously, aluminum prices have been strong this year. Strength has been driven by positive supply and demand dynamics.

How Wall Street Sees Century Aluminum after a 2Q17 Earnings Miss
Century Aluminum (CENX) released its 2Q17 financial results on August 2 after the markets closed. The company reported revenues of $2.86 billion in 2Q17.

China’s Aluminum Exports Fall from Highs—a Relief for Alcoa
Previously in this series, we’ve looked at China’s July steel exports. In this article, we’ll look at the country’s aluminum exports.

2Q17 Earnings Preview: Do Analysts Find Value in Alcoa?
Previously in this series, we’ve looked at Alcoa’s (AA) 2Q17 earnings estimates. In this article, we’ll see how leading brokerages are rating Alcoa stock ahead of its 2Q17 earnings release.

Aluminum Prices: A Look at Its Bullish Drivers
During its 1Q17 earnings call, Alcoa (AA) raised its 2017 global aluminum demand forecast to 4.5%–5.0% from its previous guidance of 4.0%.

Could Wilbur Ross and Donald Trump Be Alcoa’s Saviors?
Alcoa and Century Aluminum (CENX) survives the commodity price slump by closing their high-cost capacities and negotiating better power deals for several operating plants.

What Investors Should Know about Century Aluminum’s 1Q17 Results
Century Aluminum (CENX) was among the best-performing aluminum stocks (NHYDY) (ACH) (SOUHY) last year with gains of 94%.

What Do Analysts Think about Century Aluminum?
Three out of four analysts polled by Thomson Reuters rated Century Aluminum as a “hold,” while one analyst rated the stock as a “sell.”

Deficit or Surplus: Where’s Aluminum Headed in 2017?
For commodity companies such as Rio Tinto (RIO) and Century Aluminum (CENX), the industry outlook is as important, if not more important, than their positions in the industry.

What Should Alcoa Investors Make of Aluminum Premiums?
Aluminum premiums are key indicators that investors in primary producers such as Century Aluminum (CENX), Norsk Hydro (NHYDY), and Rio Tinto (RIO) should track.

What Comfortable Leverage Would Mean for Alcoa Investors
Due to Alcoa’s (AA) strong cash flow generation in November and December 2016, its net debt fell below $600 million on December 31, 2016.

Why Alcoa Looks Well Positioned for the Aluminum Industry’s Upcycle
Alcoa (AA) has been proactive in controlling its costs to stay competitive in the subdued commodity pricing environment.

The Alcoa Breakdown: Why Analysts Are Bullish
For commodity companies like Alcoa and Rio Tinto, the industry outlook is as important—if not more important—than the company’s position in the industry.

Alcoa’s Consensus Estimates: Analyzing the Upside
Alcoa (AA) has a mean one-year price target of $41.10, which represents a 17.8% upside over its closing price on March 21, 2017.

Alcoa or Century Aluminum: Analyzing Leverage Ratios
Century Aluminum (CENX) has a net debt-to-EBITDA multiple of 4.3x. Its leverage ratios are higher compared to Alcoa based on the net debt-to-EBITDA metric.

Analyzing Aluminum Producers’ 4Q16 Cash Flows
Looking at the yearly performance, Alcoa generated free cash flows of -$715 million in 2016. We don’t have comparable free cash flows for previous periods.

Comparing Alcoa’s 2017 Plans to Other Aluminum Producers
Alcoa expects to ship 47.5 million bone dry metric tons–48.5 million bone dry metric tons of bauxite in 2017—compared to 2016.

Aluminum Producers’ 2016 Performance and 2017 Plans
Most aluminum companies have reported their earnings for the quarter. Alcoa (AA) reported its 4Q16 financial results on January 24.

Alcoa’s 2017: The Role of Alumina Prices
Alumina markets Before we analyze alumina markets, let’s look at aluminum’s value chain. It starts with mining bauxite—one of the most abundant metals in the Earth’s crust. Due to bauxite’s many impurities, it must be refined to produce alumina. This alumina is then processed to produce raw aluminum (SOUHY). Rio Tinto (RIO), Norsk Hydro (NHYDY), and […]

Understanding Alcoa’s 1Q17 Earnings through Rising US Premiums
Physical premiums For aluminum producers, the all-in aluminum price consists of the aluminum price plus regional aluminum premiums. The premium is a surcharge that consumers must pay on top of prevailing prices in order to take immediate delivery of the metal from warehouses. Aluminum premiums are a key indicator that investors in primary producers such […]

Alcoa Stock in the Lens of Industry Indicators
Alcoa (AA) closed at $34.48 on February 24, gaining 0.47% from the previous day’s close, and having now gained 22.8% YTD.

Why 4Q16 Could Be a Reality Test for Century Aluminum
Century Aluminum (CENX) is expected to release its 4Q16 earnings after the market closes on February 23, 2017.

How Analysts View Alcoa’s Earnings Estimates
Alcoa (AA) expects to generate adjusted EBITDA between $2.1 billion–$2.3 billion in fiscal 2017.

Does Alcoa Look Undervalued at Its Current Levels?
Alcoa (AA) has debt liability of ~$1.5 billion, which is composed mostly of notes that were issued in September 2016.

Assessing the Timing of Arconic’s Sale of Its Stake in Alcoa
After the split, Arconic (ARNC) held an ~20% stake in Alcoa (AA), which Arconic plans to monetize in 18 months. However, ARNC retained the option to hold Alcoa’s stake for up to five years.

How Does Alcoa’s Balance Sheet Look Heading into 2017?
Thanks to Alcoa’s (AA) strong cash flow generation in November and December 2016, its net debt has fallen below $600 million.

Why Analysts Don’t Seem Too Excited about Alcoa’s Outlook
In its 2017 EBITDA guidance, Alcoa (AA) assumed aluminum prices of $1,795 per metric ton and an alumina price index of $355 per metric ton.

Alcoa’s 2017 Guidance: Everything You Need to Know
Alcoa (AA) expects its alumina shipments to range from 13.8 million–13.9 million metric tons in fiscal 2017 compared to 13.2 million metric tons in fiscal 2016.

How Did Alcoa’s Production Profile Change in 2016?
In fiscal 2016, Alcoa (AA) produced 45.0 million bone dry metric tons of bauxite, 13.2 million metric tons of alumina, and 2.42 million metric tons of aluminum.

How Do Analysts Rate Alcoa after Its 4Q16 Earnings Release?
Of the 12 surveyed analysts, five recommended Alcoa stock as a “buy,” while only one recommended a “sell” on the stock. Of these analysts, 50% recommended a “hold” on the stock.

Alcoa’s 2017 Outlook: Management’s Insights from 4Q16 Call
Alcoa expects global aluminum markets to be in a surplus in 2017. It expects to generate an adjusted EBITDA between $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion.

What Drove Alcoa’s 4Q16 Profitability?
Alcoa reported an adjusted EBITDA of $355 million in 4Q16—compared to $284 million in 3Q16. The bauxite and alumina segments contributed the most.

Alcoa’s 4Q16 Revenues Rose Due to Higher Commodity Prices
Alcoa reported revenues of $2.54 billion in 4Q16. It’s the first quarter that Alcoa reported its upstream results on a standalone basis after the split.

Alcoa Investors Continue to Party despite 4Q16 Earnings Miss
Alcoa reported its 4Q16 financial results on January 24. Alcoa reported a net loss of $125 million in 4Q16. It translates into a loss per share of $0.68.

Must Know: What Could Drive Aluminum Demand in 2017?
While the packaging sector’s demand is more or less stable, the construction and automotive sectors’ demands tend to influence global aluminum demand.

Can Alcoa’s Investors Expect Better Days Ahead?
On November 1, 2016, Alcoa (AA) split into two entities: Alcoa and Arconic (ARNC). Let’s take a look at the timeline of Alcoa’s split.

Decoding the Bullish Argument for Alcoa Heading into 2017
Alcoa has been aggressively pursuing bauxite sales over the last few quarters. It signed contracts valued at ~$600 million for 2016 and 2017.

What Do Analysts Think about Alcoa after Its Run-Up?
Of the ten analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, four analysts rate Alcoa stock a “buy,” four analysts rate it a “hold,” and two analysts rate it a “sell.”

Have Aluminum Market Conditions Changed This Year?
Aluminum market sentiments improved considerably since the beginning of the year when prices looked set to breach their 2009 lows.

Alcoa’s Leverage Metrics Look Comfortable after the Split
One of the biggest investor concerns about Alcoa’s (AA) split related to the splitting of liabilities—namely, debt and pension liabilities.

How Did Alcoa’s Headlines Change after the Split?
Alcoa’s growth drivers changed after the split. Improved commodity market sentiments are also helping Alcoa and other primary producers.

What Could Trump’s Presidency Mean for Alcoa and Aluminum?
China’s economic growth rates could be impacted when Donald Trump takes office. His tough stance on imports from China could be negative for its economy.

What to Expect from Chinese Aluminum Demand Next Year
Chinese aluminum demand has been better this year due to the stimulus from the government. The higher demand supported aluminum prices.

What Do China’s Aluminum Demand Indicators Suggest?
Although China’s real estate demand indicators started to show signs of moderation after the big rise earlier this year, car sales continued to swell.

Alcoa Investors: What’s Keeping Chinese Aluminum Exports Subdued?
One of the major challenges for the global aluminum industry has been the rise in Chinese aluminum exports.

What Do China’s Demand Indicators Mean for Alcoa Stock?
Since China is the world’s largest aluminum consumer, it’s important to keep track of China’s aluminum demand indicators.

Life Beyond Trump: What’s Driving Aluminum Prices This Month?
There’s been a broad-based rally in commodity prices since Trump won the election. But several fundamental factors are also supporting aluminum prices.

Has Trump’s Election Raised the Bar for Alcoa and Aluminum?
Alcoa’s (AA) earnings are sensitive to commodity prices. It expects its annual EBITDA to rise $233.0 million for every $100-per-metric-ton rise in aluminum prices.

Would Higher Commodity Prices Boost Alcoa’s 4Q16 Earnings?
Although the LME three-month aluminum contract has pared some of its post-election gains, it’s still trading in the ballpark of $1,700 per metric ton.

How Did Commodity Prices Impact Aluminum Stocks’ 3Q16 Profits?
In addition to production, it’s also important to follow aluminum companies’ profitability metrics.

How Does Alcoa’s 3Q16 Aluminum Production Compare with Peers?
Mining companies don’t have pricing power due to the commoditized nature of their business, and so changes in shipments tend to determine revenue changes.

Why Rising Alumina Prices Make Things Easier for Alcoa
Companies such as Rio Tinto (RIO), Norsk Hydro (NHYDY), and Alcoa (AA) have alumina refining and aluminum smelting operations.

Must Know: Can Aluminum Prices Sustain Their Recent Gains?
Producers such as Rio Tinto, Alcoa, and Norsk Hydro have captive power plants to generate electricity and buy the remaining electricity from third parties.

Could Trump’s Policies Revive Alcoa and Aluminum Markets?
In this article, we’ll see what Donald Trump’s presidency could mean for Alcoa and other aluminum producers, which include Century Aluminum and Norsk Hydro.

Why CENX’s 3Q16 Profits Fell despite Higher Aluminum Prices
Century Aluminum’s (CENX) 3Q16 net loss widened despite sequentially higher aluminum prices. It generated an adjusted EBITDA of -$5 million in 3Q16.