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Russ Koesterich, CFA

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Russ is Head of Asset Allocation for BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund. He works with portfolio managers to establish the fund’s macro-level views and also develops systematic strategies to augment the team’s security-selection process and risk management. He is the author of two books, including “The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble,” on positioning portfolios for the growing U.S. deficit.

Disclosure: The content Market Realist publishes should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of BlackRock.

More From Russ Koesterich, CFA

  • Disposable Income Is Still Below Historical Averages
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Disposable Income Is Still Below Historical Averages

    Disposable income refers to the income available to a household or individual after paying off personal current taxes. Disposable income is still below historical averages.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Why tight credit spreads usually mean a period of global expansion
    Financials

    Why tight credit spreads usually mean a period of global expansion

    Today, most measures of credit conditions are positive, with tight spreads across all of fixed income. Even high yield spreads have come in after a short scare last month.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • The Great American Deleveraging: Fact or Myth?
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Great American Deleveraging: Fact or Myth?

    The great American deleveraging has largely been limited to the financial sector (XLF) (IYF). Non-financial debt is still much higher than historical averages.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Investors Should Avoid Defensive Sectors If Rates Rise
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Investors Should Avoid Defensive Sectors If Rates Rise

    Valuations are at the higher end of their historical range. Investors should avoid defensive sectors, which are highly sensitive to interest rate changes.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Greek Debt Crisis 101: Getting To The Crux Of The Matter
    Miscellaneous

    Greek Debt Crisis 101: Getting To The Crux Of The Matter

    According to estimates by EuroStat, Greek debt stood at more than 315 billion euros at the end of September 2014.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Rate hike horizon: September’s jobs report was largely positive

    After September’s strong jobs numbers, a Fed rate hike could be on the horizon early next year. Russ explains two equity market implications.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Greece debt timeline
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Market Paradox: Stocks Reach Record Highs Despite Headwinds

    We’ll explore whether record highs signal a top for equity markets or whether there’s still some room for growth in the current bull market.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    You should pay particular attention to this valuation metric

    I would pay particular attention to the Shiller P/E Ratio, which is a variation on the Cyclically Adjusted P/E or CAPE. This indicator is worth watching as it has historically correlated with long-term stock market returns.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///goldcboe
    Company & Industry Overviews

    How Stocks and Bonds Reacted to Trump’s Victory

    The CBOE Volatility Index suddenly rose 6.0% on November 9, 2016, after it was clear that Trump had unexpectedly clinched the election.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///US equities bull run
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Rising Stocks: Why It May Not Be Time for the Jitters

    Rising stocks have been buoyed by various factors, including the accommodative monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and robust US corporate earnings.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Things you need to do today before inflation takes off

    So what should investors be doing today? While inflation may take another year or more to get going, it’s not too early to start implementing long-term inflation hedges.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    4 must-know facts about rising inflation and your portfolio

    Recent readings have shown that inflation has stabilized, which is a good thing, but signs of an imminent acceleration in inflation are still scant.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///opinion polls
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why European Politics Are Likely To Take Center Stage in 2015

    After a year with relatively less drama, European politics are likely to return to center stage next year.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The utilites sector is appearing overvalued
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Stretched Utility Sector Valuation Means

    Utility sector valuation appears stretched. 2014 was a great year for utilities, which gained 26.62% ex-dividends and were the best-performing sector.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-know: The aging population’s impact on the economy

    The number of people above 65 years is expected to triple from 531 million in 2010 to 1.54 billion in 2050—the population of seniors in the U.S. (IVV) (SPY) is expected to more than double and increase from 41 to 86 million in the same time period.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///What  in  is worth now
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Holding Cash Is Risky In The Long Run

    Holding cash is risky, as it provides negative real returns in the long run.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///bbcbcdacebaaecadad
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Volatility Is Likely to Stay High

    With growth projections of most major economies falling, it is likely that volatility will stay elevated.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Major central banks are now diverging in their monetary policies

    Major central banks are now diverging in their monetary policies, a dynamic we saw vividly on display last week with the Federal Reserve ending its quantitative easing (or QE) program, while Japan expanded its version of QE.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Low interest rates have kept bond yields low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Low Interest Rates Have Kept Bond Yields Low

    Weakness in the labor market means low interest rates. The US economy is gaining momentum with stellar growth rates in the last two quarters. It grew by 4.6% in 2Q14.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Treasury yields continue to be on the lower side
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why wage growth could cause rates to rise

    Wage growth could cause rates to rise. A hike in wage rates could boost consumption and encourage individuals outside the labor force to join. This will increase disposable income.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///GDP Growth in the Eurozone Is Steady
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Developed Markets Offer Value after the Rout

    Developed markets are offering value. The Eurozone has come out of the recession and is seeing some green shoots of growth.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The WTI and the dollar index move in opposite directions
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Strengthening US Dollar Has Affected Oil Prices

    Weak global demand and a strengthening dollar have affected oil prices.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///PIMCO sector allocation
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Turn to Financials and Healthcare When Fears of Rate Hike Loom

    With classic safe havens providing little protection, turn to financials and healthcare sectors for opportunities. Healthcare stocks usually hold up well in the run-up to a rate hike.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Why investor sentiment can show overvaluation in US markets

    While valuation is important, investors should also pay attention to sentiment. The goal is to gauge how – to steal a phrase – “irrationally exuberant” investors have become.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Consumer credit in Australia is burgeoning
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Consumption Will Remain Soft in Australia

    Much like US consumers, Australian consumers are in the process of repairing their balance sheets.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The Euro has been weakening against the US dollar since March
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Weaker Euro Could Lead to Inflation in Europe

    A weaker euro could lead to inflation in Europe. The depreciation in the euro was initially due to the appreciation in the dollar.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///ACWI
    Financials

    Must-know: Which safe havens are truly safe?

    Although not considered safe haven assets, in the current context of high geopolitical risk and consequently volatility, investors could consider investing in sectors like energy and large cap companies.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Inflation fell in November
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Inflation Remains Subdued

    Inflation remains subdued by all measures. Since inflation is way below the Fed’s long-term target, the Fed can afford to keep interest rates lower for a little longer.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///China PMI
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Slower Growth Has a Silver Lining!

    Slower growth has a silver lining: the potential for greater monetary and fiscal stimulus.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Transport Stocks Have Seen a Multiple Contraction in
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Has Caused the Correction in Transportation Stocks?

    DJTI’s price-to-earnings ratio climbed from 15.7x at the start of 2013 to 20.2x at the end of 2014. This year, transportation stocks (IYT) have taken a hit, leading to multiple contractions.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The Dollar Index Has Soared in the Last Few Months
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Strong Dollar Is a Major Headwind for Export-Oriented Stocks

    A stronger dollar is a headwind for export-oriented stocks. The US economy is relatively robust.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-know: Why volatility is likely to tick up in September 2014

    While volatility fell over the course of August, the VIX’s daily average for last month was approximately 15% higher than its average over the previous three months.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///borrowed funds fueled rise in stocks
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why a Chinese Market Slump Won’t Affect the Economy

    The Chinese market slump is not likely to dampen consumer spending or affect the economy. Stocks make up a mere 15% of Chinese household financial assets.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Why emerging markets offer value to your portfolio

    Truth: Emerging markets offer value. Given that they’re generally growing faster than their developed world counterparts, emerging markets still look cheap by most metrics.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///PMI
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Real US Rates Have Been Climbing

    Real US rates have been climbing, while rates are falling in much of the rest of the world. As Russ explains, this divergence has a number of implications for investors.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///market rebound has led to lesser volatility
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Market Rebound Causes Stretched Valuations

    A market rebound of more than 12% from the depths seen in October has left investor sentiment buoyant.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///US dollar headwinds
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Strong Dollar Is Dragging Down US Companies’ Revenues

    As earnings reports and analyst call transcripts show, many of the companies reporting sales misses cited the strong dollar as a contributing factor.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///High Yield Bonds Appear Attractive
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    High Yield Offers Attractive Potential in a Yield-Starved World

    In an environment of generally decent, albeit recently disappointing, growth and gently rising yields, high yield offers attractive potential in a yield-starved world.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///US Equities Are Relatively Expensive
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    US Stocks Are Less Attractive than Global Options

    As we’ve suggested throughout this series, US stocks don’t have a clear growth catalyst once interest rates rise. Still, you may find value in select sectors such as financials and technology.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///IAU demand catagorized by purpose
    Materials

    Why demand for gold may be waning around the world

    The fraction of total gold output held by central banks around the world has continued to decrease over the last decade and a sharp reversal in this trend is unlikely.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-know: Many investors fear stocks—is this good for markets?

    Currently, the S&P 500 is giving year-to-date (or YTD) returns of more than 8%. It posted gains for seven consecutive quarters. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) closed at a new high 34 times in 2014.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The Top NASDAQ Stocks in  Were Richly Valued
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Dotcom Bubble 2.0? We Don’t Think So!

    Although tech stocks have been buoyant in 2015, we don’t think that this means the advent of dotcom bubble 2.0. There are some key differences.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///demand supply shortfall
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Structural Considerations Could Mean Lower Yields in the Future

    Many structural considerations are likely to keep yields low in the future. Demand for Treasuries and bonds is likely to be more than the supply in the next two years.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Stellar returns: Why you should consider frontier markets

    While a traditional emerging market benchmark is up 1.5% year-to-date, frontier, or “pre-emerging” markets, have been performing well.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Dividend funds give you cushion during volatility
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    High-Dividend Emerging Market Funds Offer A Cushion

    High-dividend emerging market funds offer a cushion when you face market volatility.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Federal funds rate has remained low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Federal Funds Rate: Why The US Dollar Could Appreciate Further

    The federal funds rate is a tool that the Fed uses to control the interest rate in the economy. The rate has been close to zero for over six years.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The Federal Funds Rate Has Been Stuck at around  for over  Years
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Softer Rebound Could Move Markets in the 2Q

    A softer rebound could move markets in the second quarter. If the economy remains weak in the second quarter, the Fed has some leeway to maneuver the rate.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Earnings Report

    Why some bad news may be good news for international stocks

    Bad news may be good news for international stocks. Europe is struggling with deflationary headwinds and Japan is suffering under the burden of last April’s hike in the consumption tax.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Inflation fell in November
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Your Best Bets For A Good Inflation Hedge Right Now

    Although inflation is low, it’s a good idea to have a small amount of inflation hedge in your portfolio. A small inflation hedge adds diversification.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Municipal Bonds Outperformed Other Bond Classes in
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How to Ballast Your Portfolio with Bonds

    Municipal bonds (or munis) were the best performers in 2015 with returns of 3.2%. Meanwhile, investment-grade corporate bonds (LQD), long-dated Treasuries (TLT), and high-yield bonds (HYG) all gave negative returns in 2015.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Emerging market dividend indexes are trading at a discount
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Emerging Market Dividend Payers Currently Offer Value

    Emerging market dividend payers are offering value, given their high volatility.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Why you should stick with US large caps and high yield

    Within the United States, I recognize opportunities, particularly in large cap, cyclical names. On the fixed income side, high yield now represents an attractive option given recent spread widening.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///volatilities of gold vs sp
    Miscellaneous

    How Has the Volatility of Gold Changed over the Years?

    The performance of gold as a contrast to the S&P 500 is reflected during periods of high and low volatility. The S&P 500 has always outperformed gold since April 10, 2013, during periods of both high and low volatility.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///allocation to cash
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Should Be The “Right Amount” of Cash Allocation?

    If you’re preparing your portfolio for the short term, the allocation to cash should be high. As the horizon increases, allocation to cash should go down.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///New Orders Rebounded Sharply in June
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Times Change: Why the Dow Theory Is Less Applicable Today

    The economic make-up of the US has changed significantly over the past century, making the Dow Theory less applicable today than it might once have been.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-read: Key takeaways for investors in the banking sector

    The longer term outlook for Eurozone banks does look more positive than a year ago given reasons including the substantial deleveraging, capital raising by local banks and the European Central Bank (or ECB)’s recently announced ABS purchase program.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///IMFs projections on global economic growth July
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Slowing Global Growth Could Keep Commodity Prices Low

    Industrial commodities are likely to see lower prices as demand falls with slowing global growth. Yet a decent entry point doesn’t seem to be on the horizon.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Crude Oil Production in the US Has Increased
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Where Are Oil Prices Heading?

    Oil prices are expected to be lower for longer. This is bad news for high yield bond funds (HYG) (JNK) in the United States.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///SP  Returns Following Rising Fed Funds Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why To Expect Muted Returns from US Equities

    We can expect muted returns from US equities going forward. US stocks face the prospect of higher interest rates, albeit gradual and from unusually low levels.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///greece parliamentary results
    Miscellaneous

    The Next Act In The Greek Political Drama

    The stage is set for the next act in the Greek political drama. With the anti-austerity Syriza firmly at the helm of affairs, it will be a turbulent ride for the Eurozone.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Federal funds rate has remained low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Excessively Low Rates Could Be Harmful

    Excessively low rates have side effects. Treasury yields have been beaten down due to the Fed’s excessive buying. Currently, the ten-year Treasury (IEF) yields are 2.1%.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Consumer

    Must-know: Important US releases point to a stronger economy

    Meanwhile, outside of the jobs report, other U.S. economic releases are painting a consistently positive picture of the domestic economy.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///SP  Returns Following Rising Fed Funds Rate
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Rich Valuations and Higher Rates Lead to Poor Stock Returns

    Rich valuations and higher rates are a lethal combination for stocks. Over the longer term, multiple expansion and tightening lead to negative returns.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///utilities underperforming
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Investors Should Avoid the US Market’s Rate-Sensitive Segments

    As yields rise and the Fed poises to hike rates later this year, it makes sense to avoid rate-sensitive segments of the market like utilities (XLU) and staples (XLP).

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The SP  Has Seen Multiple Expansion Since
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why US Stocks Appear Unattractive

    US stocks appear unattractive despite the recent correction. A stronger dollar (UUP) and a slowing world has negatively affected large-cap earnings.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads/// EMERGING MKT
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why Emerging Markets Are Trading at a Discount to Developed Markets

    With the recent fall, some of these emerging markets have certainly become very cheap compared to most of the developed markets.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///commodities slump GSCI
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Commodities Slump: Have We Reached a Bottom?

    The talk about the commodities slump (USCI) is almost ubiquitous. It is hard to ignore the freefall most commodities (DBC) seem to have been in during the past year.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Stocks Have Given Stellar Returns Over the Last  Years
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ultra Easy Monetary Policy: Major Catalyst for the Bull Market

    Monetary policy has been one of the main catalysts of this bull market. These returns were mainly aided by the ultra easy monetary policy.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Emerging Market Small Caps Have Higher Exposure to the Consumer Related Sectors
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Emerging Market Small-Cap Stocks Focus on Local Sectors

    Emerging market small-cap stocks offer exposure to consumer sectors. EEMS has 18% exposure to consumer discretionary stocks.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///black friday weekend sales
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Santa Could Yet Bring Cheer To Holiday Retail Sales

    We think the final tally for holiday retail sales could differ from the gloomy picture some of the initial estimates had painted.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///High Yield Bond Yields Have a High Negative Correlation With Oil Prices
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How Can You Add Carry to Your Portfolio?

    Adding carry to your portfolio in a low-return scenario could cushion your portfolio.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Macroeconomic Analysis

    Assessing the long-term structural issues plaguing the US

    The improving economy still faces long-term structural issues like slow wage growth, below-trend consumption and a shrinking labor force participation rate.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///us job additions
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Dark Spot on the Shiny Labor Market Recovery

    Even though the March jobs report came in lower than expected with only 126,000 job additions, the labor market recovery looks extremely robust.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • high yield spreadspngautocompresscformatandixlibphp
    Financials

    Why high yield bonds offer an investment opportunity

    High yield bonds have come under pressure lately, and as a result, are now looking relatively attractive. Spreads recently widened out to the highest level in a year.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Euro recently hit an eleven year low against the dollar
    Miscellaneous

    The Possible Ramifications Of A Grexit

    The possible ramifications of a Grexit include devaluation and even a complete breakdown of the currency.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Emerging Market Small Caps Are Less Correlated
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Which ETF Can Insulate You from Slowing Global Growth?

    EEM stocks are better insulated from slowing global growth. The fund is exposed to global sectors.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///High Yield Bonds Appear Relatively Attractive
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Areas of Relative Value within Fixed Income

    For investors, the implications are not to load up on bonds, but to tactically look for areas of relative value within fixed income.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Year to Date Returns for Various ETFs
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Consider Overseas Stock Exposure as the Rate Hike Looms

    Consider overseas stock exposure, as US markets look less attractive. Chinese stocks gave returns of 17% YTD. This is due to excess liquidity in equities.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///inflation expectations
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Current High Volatility Regime Will Likely Persist

    The high volatility regime will likely be the norm in the future. State Street observed that the US market has already clocked 42 highly volatile days in 2015.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///production supply mismatch
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Energy Sector Headwinds: Supply Side Poses a Challenge

    The supply side is adding to energy sector headwinds (IXC).

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Materials

    A key headwind: Why real interest rates affect gold prices

    While I still believe that the precious metal should be a part of a diversified portfolio, I see four reasons why gold prices are likely to decline going forward.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///europe growth
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Are the Reasons Behind the Bond Sell-Off?

    One of the main reasons behind the bond sell-off last week was a rise in inflation expectations. The ten-year break-even inflation rate increased to 1.94% on May 1, 2015.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Emerging Markets Have Had a Torrid Time since
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Consider Allocating to Emerging Market Small Caps

    Emerging markets also appear cheap at the moment compared to US stocks. EEMS is likely to be more volatile (VXX) than EEM.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Energy & Utilities

    Must-know: Is the utilities sector a bond market proxy?

    It’s important to note that higher real yields, not rising inflation, are driving today’s higher nominal yields as investors are demanding more compensation for holding bonds

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///global growth slowdown
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Has Muted the Demand for Commodities?

    The demand for commodities has been dampened by a variety of factors, particularly in the last two years.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Federal funds rate has remained low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Bonds Could Underperform In 2015

    Interest rates and bond yields are already at very low levels. Inflation could pick up and lead to a rate hike. So, bonds could underperform going forward.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///US Equities Are Relatively Expensive
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Another Reason for Diversification: High US Equity Valuations

    High US equity valuations are weighing on investor sentiments. The United States is trading at 100%, 50%, and 74% premiums over Japan, Europe, and emerging markets, respectively.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-know: Divergence is the new trend in the global economy

    Economic growth is strengthening in some parts of the world, while it’s slipping in others. In other words, as I mentioned in a post earlier this week, the major trend in the global economy is one of increasing divergence, rather than slower growth.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Longest US Bull Markets
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is the End of the 6-Year Bull Run in Sight?

    The current bull run is among the top five longest in history. Since World War II, the average bull market run has lasted 58 months.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///fedfccceacdeffb
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Signs that the US Economy Is Improving

    The US economy added ~215,000 jobs in July, compared to ~260,000 in April and ~231,000 jobs in June. Although this number is dipping, it is still above the 200,000 mark, which is usually seen during economic booms.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Greece Debt Drama: What’s Next?
    Miscellaneous

    Greece Debt Drama: What’s Next?

    Keep a close eye on further developments in the unfolding Greek debt drama and hope that it does not turn into a tragedy.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///chinese economy slack
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Chinese Sell-Off Hasn’t Affected the Global Economy

    The Chinese sell-off sparked concerns about how the crash will affect economies all over the world. China makes up 11.3% of the global economy and is a huge consumer of resources.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///The Correlation Between Stocks and High Yield Bonds Has Increased Over the Last  Years
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Higher Correlations Between Risky Assets Don’t Bode Well

    Increasing correlations between risky assets could leave your portfolio vulnerable.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    3 reasons why the US dollar should strengthen in 2014

    But while the currency has been range bound for the past two years, there are three reasons why I would expect a stronger dollar over the next year.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Long-term implications of a disconnect between news and strong equity markets

    In the short term, recent market action isn’t as irrational as it might appear. First, there’s no clear link between these events and near-term economic or earnings growth.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    India’s perennial problem: A current account deficit

    EM countries become less reliant on short-term foreign capital funding, as evident in improved current account balances and a shift toward longer-term foreign direct investment.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///why wage growth continues to stay low
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Wage Growth Continues To Stay Low

    Research shows that another cause for why wage growth continues to stay low is that employers are reluctant to reduce wages.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • Financials

    Must-know: American stocks have outshone the rest so far in 2014

    Although better economic data over the next few months could support stocks, negative cues from Europe, the Middle East, or China could send stocks tumbling.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads/// MSCI ACWI
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Global Equity Markets Have Fallen Steeply in the Past Year

    Global equity markets (EFA) have been on a rollercoaster ride for the past few months. The sharp fall in stocks last year was initially triggered by fears of a hard landing in China (MCHI).

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///aafbbfdabeefecdbecbcea
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities May Offer Some Value

    TIPS may offer some value as inflation breakeven seems modest. TIPS provide investors a hedge against inflation just like gold (GLD) and other commodities (DBC).

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
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