Vivint Solar Inc

Overall, 2019 turned out to be volatile for solar stocks. However, there were some bright spots among broader markets last year.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) stock started off 2020 with a bang and surged more than 12% on January 2. Solar stocks also gained yesterday.

During Tesla’s Q3 call, Musk said that he thinks Tesla’s solar segment could be as big or even bigger than the company’s electric vehicle business.

To boost the domestic solar industry, Trump imposed a 30% tariff on imported panels last year. However, the policy severely impacted the sector.

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk launched the company’s V3 Solar Roof last week. Musk expects its market size to be around 100 million homes worldwide.

Short-seller Citron Research noted that Generac Holdings could challenge solar microinverter makers Enphase Energy and SolarEdge’s duopoly.

There has been a flurry of positive indicators supporting solar stocks recently.

In 3Q17, Vivint Solar (VSLR) posted $34.7 million as its cost of revenue for its operating leases and incentives, higher than the $33.8 million in 2Q17 but lower than the $39.3 million in 3Q16.

Vivint Solar reported $75.1 million in consolidated revenue for 3Q17 compared to $73.0 million in 2Q17 and $41.3 million 3Q16.

Vivint Solar (VSLR) reported a cost per watt of $2.94 for 3Q17, higher than the $2.88 it reported in 2Q17 and $3.85 in 3Q16.

Vivint Solar posted $75.1 million in revenues in 3Q17, up by 82% on a YoY (year-over-year) basis.

SunEdison (SUNEQ) announced the intent to acquire residential rooftop solar (TAN) power provider Vivint Solar (VSLR) on July 19, 2015. However, the market reacted negatively.

Factors that spearheaded SunEdison’s bankruptcy were leveraged acquisitions and the liquidity crisis.

In October, Tesla unveiled the second version of the Powerwall and Powerpack. The second version comes with higher energy storage capacity.

For the coming quarter, analysts expect Sunrun’s (RUN) revenue to be ~$130 million, and they expect significant improvement in company revenue in the latter half of 1H17.

Sunrun (SUN) reported an operating loss of ~$51 million for 3Q16 compared to an operating loss of $48 million in 2Q16 and $63 million in 3Q15.

For 3Q16, Sunrun’s (RUN) consolidated revenue came in at ~$112 million against analysts’ expectations of $135 million.

Sunrun (RUN) announced its 3Q16 earnings results on November 10, 2016, after market hours. Sunrun reported earnings per share of $0.16, compared to analysts’ consensus EPS estimate of -$0.20.

Vivint Solar (VSLR) reported $39.3 million in operating leases and incentives revenue costs for 3Q16 compared to $38.5 million in 2Q16 and $37.6 million in 3Q15.

Vivint Solar (VSLR) reported a record low cost per watt of $2.85 for 3Q16 as compared to $2.94 in 2Q16 and $3.12 in 3Q15.

Sunrun’s (RUN) gross profit for 2Q16 came in at $22.3 million. For 3Q16, analysts expect the company to report a gross profit of $23.3 million.

Of the 11 analysts covering Sunrun (RUN) stock, nine analysts (81.8%) gave the company a “buy” rating. Two analysts (18.2%) rated it a “hold,” and there weren’t any “sell” ratings on Sunrun’s stock on November 4, 2016.

Analysts estimate that Vivint Solar (VSLR) will report revenue of $44.0 million in 3Q16, which is almost a 26.0% rise on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

SolarCity’s interest expenses have risen more than fourfold in the last two years.

Since the release of SolarCity’s 2Q16 results, three of the 15 analysts covering the stock lowered their price targets.

Between its 2Q16 earnings release on August 9 and October 21, 2016, SolarCity’s stock price fell nearly 19%.

As the downstream solar industry is still in its growth phase, operating losses are common among incumbent players.

SunPower (SPWR), Sunrun (RUN), Vivint Solar (VSLR), and SolarCity (SCTY) all reported their revenues beating analysts’ 2Q16 revenue expectations.

For 2Q16, SolarCity reported its MW (megawatts) installed at 201 MW, compared to 214 MW in 1Q16 and 189 MW in 2Q15.

For 1Q16, Sunrun’s creation cost per watt was $4.11 compared to $3.64 in 4Q15. Its built install cost was $2.36 compared to $2.33 in 4Q15.

Vivint Solar reported its total cost per watt as $3.34 for 1Q16 compared to $3.12 in 4Q15. Uncertainty about its net metering system increased customer acquisition cost.

Vivint Solar (VSLR) reported $17.2 million in consolidated revenue for 1Q16 and $16.1 million for 2Q15. Analysts estimate 2Q15 revenue of $25.0 million.

Of the six analysts covering Vivint Solar (VSLR) stock, two have given the company a “buy” rating, two a “hold” rating, and two a “sell” rating.

Vivint Solar (VSLR) will announce its 2Q16 earnings results on August 8, 2016, after Market hours. In this series, we’ll look at analysts’ expectations for 2Q16 and 2016 guidance.

As of March 31, 2016, SolarCity (SCTY) had about $3.2 billion in consolidated debt on its books. Of the $3.2 billion, ~$1.5 billion was total recourse debt.

SolarCity’s wide network of sales and distribution channels and customer-friendly financing products are expected to benefit Tesla and its customers.

The downstream solar business is all about capturing market share. Because the solar lease contracts and power purchase agreements typically last for 20 years, a company with higher market share in the mature stage could get more revenue than the company with lower market share.

Sunrun (RUN) reported the cost of operating leases and incentives as $38.1 million for 1Q16 compared to $21.4 million in 1Q15.

Sunrun (RUN) announced its 1Q16 earnings results on May 12, 2016. In this series, we’ll look at the 1Q16 results, compare them with analysts’ estimates, and see the factors behind deviations.

SolarCity (SCTY) reported $123 million in 1Q16 revenue against analysts’ consensus estimate of $113 million.

Moving ahead, SolarCity’s newly launched residential solar (TAN) loan offering could help the company in reviving its bookings in the short term.

SolarCity posted mixed results for 1Q16. The company reported adjusted EPS of -$2.56 compared to the analyst consensus EPS estimate of -$2.31.

Of the eight analysts covering Sunrun (RUN) stock, six analysts, or 75%, gave the company a “buy” rating. Two analysts, or 25%, rated it a “hold.” There weren’t any “sell” rating on Sunrun’s stock.

SolarCity (SCTY) reported about $115 million in consolidated revenue for 4Q15. Analysts estimate that it will report revenue of $113 million in 1Q16.

On July 20, 2016, SunEdison (SUNEQ) announced the acquisition of leading residential rooftop solar player Vivint Solar (VSLR).

The major factors that led to SunEdison’s bankruptcy were leveraged acquisitions and the liquidity crisis. More than the macro factors, SunEdison’s fall appears to be self-made.

Among the downstream solar companies, SolarCity (SCTY) has the highest EV-to-sales value of 8.70x, which is closely followed by Vivint Solar at 8.31x.

As of December 31, 2015, the cumulative installed capacity of SolarCity stood at 1,945 MW as compared to Sunrun’s 596 MW and Vivint Solar’s 459 MW.

The downstream solar business is capital intensive and requires companies like SolarCity to hold huge upfront capital for the sale of products and services.

The majority of SolarCity’s customers are individual homeowners. Residential installations in 4Q15 came in at 221 MW, as compared to 203 MW in 3Q15.

Key operational metrics such as megawatts deployed allow us to compare the operational performances of downstream solar companies like SolarCity.

Government incentives, environment regulations, seasonal changes in energy demand, and cost factors are among SolarCity’s biggest performance drivers.

SolarCity began its journey in 2006, with a vision to provide renewable energy to residential and commercial customers at a price lower than utility rates.

SolarCity initially raised funds through the issue of warrants to investors on preferred stock. It also raised capital through a range of investment funds.

ITCs (investment tax credits) are dollar-for-dollar reductions on income taxes. These apply to the residential and commercial deployment of solar systems.

SolarCity’s business is divided into two segments: Operating Leases and Solar Energy Systems Incentives and Solar Energy Systems and Component Sales.

SolarCity was founded in 2006 with the initial focused on selling, financing, and installing solar energy systems for residential and commercial customers.

One out of four analysts covering Vivint Solar (VSLR) has rated the stock a “buy,” two analysts rated the stock a “hold,” and one analyst recommends a “sell” for the stock.

On March 7, 2016, Vivint Solar terminated its merger agreement with SunEdison (SUNE) because SunEdison failed to consummate the acquisition in time.

The elimination of net metering system in Nevada affected the expansion plans of Vivint Solar and also led to the market exit of its peers Sunrun and SolarCity.

Vivint Solar intends to expand its presence in existing solar markets and penetrate into new markets by leveraging its brand presence and customer base.

Vivint Solar reported $64.18 million in consolidated revenue for fiscal 2015 compared to $25.25 million during fiscal 2014.

ITCs (investment tax credits) are a dollar-for-dollar reduction on an income tax bill. It is applicable to both residential and commercial deployment of solar systems.

Vivint Solar’s business model is divided into two revenue segments: Operating Leases and Incentives and Solar Energy Systems and Product Sales.

Vivint Solar has witnessed rapid growth since inception with installed capacity reaching 129.7 megawatts as of June 30, 2014. The company went public on October 1, 2014.

Among the seven firms covering the Sunrun stock, Credit Suisse is most bullish on the stock, with a price target of $21 assigned on March 21, 2016.

Sunrun (RUN) expects to deploy about 285.0 megawatts (or MW) in fiscal 2016, compared to 202.9 MW deployed in fiscal 2015.

The extension of the investment tax credit for owning eligible solar systems and a decrease in solar hardware prices provide a strong growth opportunity for downstream solar companies.

Unlike its peers, Sunrun is building an open platform of services and tools to provide a differentiated customer experience and, at the same time, gaining a wide customer base.

Sunrun reported $111.78 million as the cost of operating leases and incentives segment for fiscal 2015 compared to $72.89 million in fiscal 2014.

On March 10, 2016, Sunrun launched a new product, BrightBox. It is the first time that the company will be offering energy storage facility to homeowners.

In February 2014, Sunrun (RUN) acquired the residential business of REC Solar, AEE Solar, and SnapNrack from Mainstream Energy Corporation for $78.8 million.

Investment tax credits are dollar-for-dollar reductions in an income tax bill. It is applicable to both residential and commercial deployment of solar systems.

Extension of ITCs for investments in solar energy has been key for the rapid expansion of downstream solar companies like Sunrun, Vivint Solar (VSLR), SolarCity (SCTY), and SunPower (SPWR).

Sunrun was co-founded in 2007 as a startup by Ed Fenster and Lynn Jurich, with an aim to create worldwide use of solar energy. It began offering solar services in 2008.

The business model of downstream solar players like Vivint Solar generate income over the term of customer agreements, which typically last for 20 years.

Vivint Solar’s estimated nominal contracted payments remaining increased by $251.4 million during 4Q15, compared to $214 million during 3Q15.

Moving ahead, Sunrun (RUN) expects to deploy about 285.0 megawatts in fiscal 2016—compared to 202.9 megawatts in fiscal 2015.

Based on our preliminary analysis, we can see that SunEdison (SUNE) seems to be under a lot of stress, financially and operationally.

Debt So far in this series, we’ve looked at operating metrics, liquidity, and fixed assets for SunEdison (SUNE) and its family, including TerraForm Power (TERP) and TerraForm Global (GLBL). Without discussing debt and related metrics, we can’t test the hypothesis in the series title properly. The most important reason for the recent fall in SunEdison’s […]

SunEdison’s leverage is a major concern among investors and analysts.

With 3Q15 earnings season over and all eyes shifted to 4Q15 and beyond, we’re taking an opportunity to update our readers on the 3Q15 earnings of all major American solar companies.

SolarCity is a vertically-integrated solar company. Despite advancing technology and expanding reach, it has seen negative earnings most years since 2007.

SunPower (SPWR) reported total cost of revenues of $310.1 million in 2Q15, or 81% of revenues. In spite of reduced revenues, the company maintained its gross margin at 19% in 2Q15.