ConocoPhillips: 2015 Operational Highlights, 2016 Guidance
ConocoPhillips’s (COP) total production volume in 2015 was 1,589 Mboe/d excluding Libya. This represents a 5% year-over-year growth after adjusting for asset dispositions and downtime.
What Are Analyst Recommendations for Apache?
Wall Street analysts gave mixed recommendations after Apache’s quarterly results. Apache shares fell 5% on November 6, 2015, after the earnings release.
Marathon Oil Has Risen ~27% in 2018
Marathon Oil (MRO) has seen a strong rally in the past month. The company has risen ~15% from its lows of $19 in August.
Placing Apache’s Stock Compared to Its Peers
Apache’s stock has fallen almost 20% this year. However, since October, it has remained above approximately $47 on an average.
Traders Are Tracking OPEC’s Meeting on June 22
The crude oil production from OPEC and non-OPEC producers is expected to increase by 300,000 bpd–600,000 bpd in OPEC’s upcoming meeting.
Which Upstream Stocks Are More Sensitive to Crude Oil?
In the last three months, Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS) has had the highest positive correlation with WTI crude oil among upstream companies that are part of XOP.
What Are Analysts’ Targets for Apache for the Next 12 Months?
APA’s high target price stands at $73, its low target price stands at $42, and its median target price stands at $60.
What Does Continental Resources’ Revenue Growth Trend Indicate?
Continental Resources’ (CLR) 1Q16 revenue fell by ~27% YoY (year-over-year), while its YoY revenue growth was around -37% in 1Q15 and about -59% in 4Q15.
Hess’s Key Management Objectives Investors Need to Know
Hess’s (HES) key management objectives include taking several steps to counter lower commodity prices. These include capital and cost reductions.
Apache’s Key Operational Highlights in 1Q16
Apache Corporation’s (APA) pro forma production volume in 1Q16 was 479,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a fall of 20% year-over-year.
Why Did Apache See the Worst Decline in 4Q15 Revenue?
Hess (HES), Apache (APA), Devon Energy (DVN), and Marathon Oil (MRO) recorded lower 4Q15 revenues compared to the corresponding quarter in 2014.
Investors respond differently to upstream companies’ capex plans
In this environment of crude oil prices declining sharply and staying low, investors continue to favor stocks that are increasing investments.
Most Analysts Recommend a ‘Buy’ for Anadarko Petroleum Stock
About 76% of the analysts covering Anadarko Petroleum (APC) have rated the stock a “buy,” and 21% have rated it a “hold.”
What Are the Expectations for Concho Resources’ 4Q15 Earnings?
Concho Resources (CXO) will release its 4Q15 earnings on February 25, 2016. The estimate for 4Q15 revenue is ~$592.4 million. Revenue in 4Q14 was ~$692.4 million.
USO Is a Better Trade Compared to XOP in Week of July 2
Shares of USO trade on the NYSE like company stock. The fund lost ~5.3% in the week ended July 2.
What Do Analysts Recommend for Apache Pre-1Q16 Earnings Release?
In the weeks leading up to Apache’s (APA) 1Q16 earnings release, Wall Street analysts have provided target prices for the next 12 months.
What Are Analysts Forecasting for Apache in Next 12 Months?
APA’s high target price stands at $77. Its low target price is $42, and its median target price is ~$62.
Why Is Apache Struggling with Its 100-Day Moving Average?
Apache was trading 11.8% below its 100-day moving average. Since November 27, 2015, the stock has struggled to cross its 100-day moving average.
Must-know: Why oil prices swung lower only to recover again
On Friday, August 29, prices closed at $95.96 per barrel. On Tuesday, prices dropped to $92.88—a 3% decrease. On Wednesday, prices came back to $95.54 per barrel, again ~3% higher than the previous day’s market close.
Analyzing Short Interest Trends in Whiting Petroleum Stock
On September 8, 2017, the short interest as a percentage of float in Whiting Petroleum (WLL) stock, or its short interest ratio, was ~21.4%.
Apache Reported Upbeat 4Q17 Revenues and Earnings
On February 22, 2018, Apache (APA) reported its 4Q17 and fiscal 2017 earnings. Apache reported revenues of ~$1.58 billion in 4Q17.
Will Apache’s 2Q16 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates?
Apache (APA) is expected to release its 2Q16 earnings on August 4, 2016. Its revenue estimate is $1.3 billion. That’s 33% lower than 2Q15 and 26% higher than 1Q16.
How Has Concho Resources’ Stock Fared ahead of 4Q15 Earnings?
As 2015 came to a close, Concho Resources’ (CXO) stock started falling. CXO has fallen ~21% since February 2015.
Now for the ConocoPhillips Nitty-Gritty: Debt, Cash, Leverage, and Liquidty
ConocoPhillips’s net debt-to-EBITDA was in the range of 0.6x–1.1x between 3Q13 and 4Q14. But in 2015, its net debt-to-EBITDA multiple started increasing.
Understanding the Analysts’ Targets for Key Permian Oil and Gas Stocks
Concho Resources and Pioneer Natural Resources have the most “buy” recommendations as compared to peers at 82% and 93%, respectively.
Why Schlumberger’s North American operations held ground
In 4Q14, Schlumberger’s revenues from its North American operations increased 18.5% to $4.32 billion.
Why Nordic posts earnings increase, declares dividend
NAO’s initial fleet is providing services for Apache Corporation’s (APA) Apache North Sea Limited, BG International Limited (BRGYY), and Statoil Petroleum AS, a subsidiary of Statoil ASA (STO).
COG Highly Correlates to Natural Gas Prices, CHK Not so Much
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) had the highest correlation with natural gas prices in the past one-year, six-month, three-month, and one-month periods.
What’s New in the Permian?
According to the EIA’s latest Drilling Productivity Report on June 12, crude oil production in the Permian is expected to have risen 2.4 million barrels per day in May.
Upstream Space Might See Upside This Week
On November 2–9, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) rose 0.6%—the least among major energy ETFs.
EIA forecasts global liquids supply and consumption trends
As for supply and consumption, global oil production is outpacing consumption, especially in the first half of 2015.
XOP Is Underperforming Other Energy ETFs
On November 12–19, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) fell 1.6%—the largest decline among major energy ETFs.
Will ConocoPhillips Continue to Deliver amid Oil’s Turbulence?
As of November 12, Brent crude oil active futures had fallen 18.3% from their almost four-year high of $86.29 per barrel on October 3.
Crude Oil Prices Rise Due to Short Covering ahead of Expiry
September WTI crude oil futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 1.79% on August 18. Crude oil prices rose due to the consensus of falling US crude oil inventories.
WTI Cushing–WTI Midland Spread at Highest Level since August 2014
The Brent-WTI Midland spread reached $23.11 per barrel on May 31, which was its highest level since August 2014.
Natural Gas Services, a Major Segment of DCP Midstream
DCP Midstream’s Natural Gas Services segment provides natural gas gathering, compressing, treating, processing, transporting, and storing services.
What Could Be Holding Back Apache Stock?
Apache stock (APA) has fallen 6.6% year-over-year driven by lackluster first-quarter earnings and increasing price differentials in the Permian.
What Are Wall Street’s Forecasts for Apache after 3Q15 Earnings?
Approximately 42% of analysts tracking Apache rate it a “buy” or some equivalent while 49% rate the company a “hold” or an equivalent.
Continental Resources’ Implied Volatility after 4Q16 Earnings
Continental Resources’ (CLR) current implied volatility is 35.4%. That’s about 9.0% lower than its 15-day average of 40.0%.
WTI Crude Oil Hit $75 on July 3: What’s Next?
August WTI crude oil prices hit an intraday high of $75.27 per barrel on July 3—the highest level since November 2014.
How Could Lower Production Impact Apache Corporation’s Revenues?
Excluding the effect of hedges, Apache Corporation’s (APA) average realized crude oil (USO) price in 4Q15 was $38.86 per barrel, down ~45% from $70.81 per barrel in 4Q14.
What Has Been Driving Apache Stock Lately?
Apache (APA) stock hasn’t risen as much as its peers this year. On a YoY (year-over-year) basis, Apache stock has declined 6.85%.
How Could Trade Tariffs Affect the US Upstream Sector?
Earlier this month, the White House made good on its threats and announced tariffs on Chinese goods worth $50 billion, including steel and aluminum.
Analyzing the Pros and Cons of High Volatility Upstream Stocks
On December 23, 2016, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) had the lowest implied volatility among upstream stocks that are part of XOP.
China’s Crude Oil Production: A Game Changer in 2016?
China’s crude oil production could fall by 3%–5% in 2016. The fall in China’s crude oil production would be substituted by the rise in China’s crude oil imports.
Whiting Petroleum’s Earnings and Revenue Trends
WLL’s revenues have fallen considerably compared to 3Q14. Its 3Q16 revenues totaled ~$129 million, versus an estimate of $348 million.
Analyzing Continental Resources’ Stock Performance
Continental Resources (CLR) stock has been on a consistent uptrend since the beginning of 2018. The stock has risen 12.6% year-to-date.
Crude Oil Prices Rally despite Chinese Slowdown Drama
NYMEX-traded WTI crude oil futures contracts for September delivery rose by 2.80% on August 25. Crude oil prices recovered despite oversupply concerns.
How Returns Affect Implied Volatility of Upstream Stocks
On December 19, 2016, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) stock fell 79.1% YTD, the steepest YTD fall among upstream stocks with the highest implied volatilities.
Crude Oil Prices Retreat as Iraq Exports Set a Record
NYMEX-traded WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil for June delivery prices declined by 0.80% and settled at $59.15 per barrel on Friday, May 1, 2015.
Analysts Cut Price Target on Concho Resources
On February 20, Concho Resources (CXO) fell 7.1%.
Why Apache Corp. faces activist pressure from JANA Partners
Houston-based Apache Corporation is an oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the United States, Canada, Egypt, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
Analyzing Returns of High Implied Volatility Upstream Stocks
Cobalt International Energy stock fell ~77.4% on a YTD basis—the steepest YTD fall among upstream stocks with the highest implied volatilities.
The EIA’s must-know forecasts for 2014 and 2015 crude oil prices
Background Brent crude spot oil spot prices fell by more than 15% in November. WTI crude oil spot prices fell from an average of $84 per barrel in October to $76 per barrel in November. EIA forecasts Tanking oil prices will hurt the margins of oil producers such as ExxonMobil (XOM), Apache Corp. (APA), Continental […]
Energy Sector: Analyzing Key Events This Week
The EIA is scheduled to release its oil and natural gas inventory data on March 27–28, which could be a short-term driver for oil and natural gas prices.
EIA forecasts growth in global liquids supply and consumption
The EIA expects global liquids supply to average 93.76 MMbbls/d in 2015. This is 0.82 MMbbls/d higher than its estimate of 92.94 MMbbls/d in 2014.
Crude Oil Prices Hit $43 Level Due to Slowing Demand Concerns
NYMEX-traded WTI crude oil futures for September delivery fell by 1.76% on August 7. Crude oil prices are trading close to the March 2015 levels.
Why Did the WTI Cushing-WTI Midland Spread Drop?
The WTI Cushing-WTI Midland spread was at $4.12 per barrel on June 25—compared to $9.7 per barrel on June 18. The spread fell 58% on June 18–25.
WTI Cushing–WTI Midland Spread Drops from Multiyear High
The WTI Cushing-WTI Midland spread was $11.25 per barrel on July 16, compared to $13.25 per barrel on July 9.
Why the Permian Has Been Important for Apache This Year
The Permian Basin has seen a flurry of deals over the past year. According to the EIA, 2016 saw higher M&A (merger and acquisition) activity than 2015.
Why Is EP Energy Increasing Focus in the Wolfcamp?
Wolfcamp, which lies in the Permian Basin, has given the company a strategic edge. It seems to make sense to move its capital to more operationally efficient regions.
Comparing the Fall in Oil ETFs and Oil Last Week
On August 3–10, USO fell 1.3%, USL fell 0.5%, and UCO fell 2.8%. These ETFs track US crude oil futures.
Understanding the simple moving average in technical analysis
The simple moving average (or SMA) is an average of the closing price of a stock over a specified number of periods. The moving average smooths the short-term fluctuations in the stock prices.
Oil: 2018 Might Be the Worst Year since 2016
So far in 2018, US crude oil prices have fallen 25%. Crude oil prices are in the red on a year-to-date basis for the first time since 2016.
EIA Expects Liquid Fuels Production to Rise in 2015 and 2016
The EIA (Energy Information Administration) expects global petroleum and liquids production or total world supply to average 94.16 MMbbl/d in 2015.
How Low Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Affect Upstream Companies
Last year turned out to be a quite brutal one for all commodities, and energy commodities are no exception. Crude oil was down by ~30% in 2015, whereas natural gas saw a decline of ~19% during the same period.
Why Did Crude Oil Prices Fall 19% in July 2015?
September WTI crude oil futures contracts fell by 0.55% on July 30, 2015. The appreciating US dollar led to the fall in crude oil prices in yesterday’s trade.
Why Crude Oil Prices Have Fallen 16% in 8 Sessions
January WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading on NYMEX fell by 3.1% to $35.62 per barrel on Friday, December 11, 2015.
Will Oil Glut Continue in 2016 with OPEC’s Production Policy?
Some member countries of OPEC—namely, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait—support the policy to keep oil output high in order retain market share against non-OPEC producers.
The Price of WTI Oil Hits $70 per Barrel: Are the Bulls Back?
US crude oil inventories fell 9.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 421.4 MMbbls from June 15–22.
Denbury Resources’ Operating Costs Are Drifting Upward
Over the last 12 quarters, Denbury’s operating costs have been drifting upward. They rose from $21.19 per BOE in 1Q12 to $22.64 per BOE in 4Q14.
Hess Stock Rose Significantly after 4Q15 Earnings Release
Following Hess’s (HES) 4Q15 earnings release, Hess stock rose 6%. But the stock has declined significantly over the past year. Year-over-year, Hess has fallen 46%.
WTI Crude Oil Priced ahead of the EIA’s Report
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures for June delivery fell marginally by 0.41% and settled at $60.50 per barrel on Wednesday, May 13, 2015.
NYSTRS reduced its position in Apache Corporation
The NYSTRS decreased its position in Apache Corporation from 0.20% in 3Q14 to 0.12% in 4Q14—according to the latest SEC 13F filings.
What Could Impact Oil on March 22?
On March 21, US crude oil May futures fell 0.4% to $59.98 per barrel. Profit-booking might be behind the small decline in US crude oil.
ConocoPhillips: Jim Ratcliffe Eyes Assets in the United Kingdom
On November 19, ConocoPhillips (COP) confirmed to CNBC that it has been engaged in talks with Jim Ratcliffe.
Crude Oil Prices Rise 4% as the US Dollar Depreciates
The fight for market share, despite lower crude oil prices, has led to victory for Saudi Arabia. It exported 4.4 MMbpd of crude oil to Asia in 1H15.
Crude Oil Prices Fall More than 2% on Greece’s Default Crisis
NYMEX-traded WTI crude oil futures contracts for August delivery fell by 2.18% and settled at $58.33 per barrel on June 29 due to Greece’s default crisis.
Changing Winds in 2017 for Upstream Companies: Capex on the Rise
Capex increase in 2017 As we saw in the previous part, OPEC’s (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) November announcement was a catalyst to turning around commodity prices (USO) (UCO) (UNG) (UGAZ), especially oil prices. Global investment in 2017 A Wood Mackenzie report noted that “the global investment cycle will show the first signs of growth […]
API Data and Chinese Stocks Rise, Support Crude Oil Prices
The US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.4 MMbbls for the week ending July 31. The consensus of falling US inventories supports crude oil prices.
Apache Stock: What Are Analysts’ Recommendations?
On June 11, Argus upgraded Apache stock from “hold” to “buy.” On March 7, UBS initiated coverage on Apache stock with a “sell” rating.
Crude Oil Prices Fall Almost 5% ahead of Expiry
October WTI crude oil futures contracts trading in NYMEX fell on September 18. Crude oil prices fell due to negative sentiments of oversupply.
Apache Corp Stock: Must-Know Short Interest Trends
Apache Corp’s (APA) short interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of float) on February 6, 2017, was ~5.3%.
US WTI Crude Oil Prices Rally despite Oversupply Concerns
August WTI crude oil futures trading in NYMEX rose by 1.95% and closed at $59.47 per barrel on Tuesday, June 30, 2015. Prices surged on the summer demand.
Must-know: Why energy investors monitor crude oil inventories
Analysts had expected a drop of 1.5 million barrels (mmbbls) in crude inventories last week. The following parts will cover actual changes in inventories.
What Happened to Apache’s Implied Volatility after Q4 Earnings
Apache’s (APA) current implied volatility is ~27.5%, ~5.3% lower than its 15-day average of 29%.
Continental Resources’ 4Q16 Earnings Better Than Expected
Continental Resources (CLR) reported its 4Q16 earnings on February 23, 2017. Its revenue was ~$550.0 million compared to the estimated $581.0 million.
Why Has Concho Resources Been Eyeing the Permian Basin?
Concho Resources’ (CXO) key focus this year is apparently to strengthen its position in the Permian Basin. Earlier this year, it announced a trio of deals to enhance its position.
Crude Oil Bears Could Overshadow Oil Bulls
August WTI oil futures contracts fell 0.7% in early morning trading on July 18. Brent and WTI crude oil futures rose ~0.5% and ~0.03% on July 17.
What Do Analysts Expect for Upstream Energy Companies?
The 100-day moving averages of upstream companies’ stocks have shown strong resistance.
Refinery demand affects crude oil inventories and prices
US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million bpd (barrels per day) during the week ended December 5. High levels like these were seen earlier this year, in July.
Comparing Apache’s Debt Position
In this series, we’ll look at Apache’s key fundamentals and compare them with those of energy peers.
Production Profiles of Key Eagle Ford Oil and Gas Companies
Eagle Ford producers Key producers in the Eagle Ford Shale include Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP), Carrizo Oil and Gas, and EOG Resources (EOG). As shown in the image above, all the above companies have at least one-third of their production coming in from the Eagle Ford. While Carizzo Oil and Gas saw a YoY […]
Upstream Funds a Better Trade than US Crude Oil Futures Last Week
XOP was underperforming both WTI crude oil and USO at the beginning of last week, but started giving higher returns as the week progressed.
Changes in Whiting Petroleum’s Implied Volatility
Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) current implied volatility is ~63%, which is ~7% lower than its 15-day average of ~68%.
What’s Hess’s Production Guidance and Key Management Strategies?
Hess provided a 2016 production guidance range of 330–350 Mboepd. This represents a decline of 7% at mid-point compared to 2015 levels.
Analyzing Upstream Companies’ 100-Day Moving Averages
As of December 28, the 100-day moving averages of upstream companies’ stocks showed strong resistance. They were trading below their 20-day moving averages.
Whiting Petroleum’s Short Interest Trends
Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) short interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of float) is currently higher than it was a year ago, standing at ~13.34% in comparison to ~4.95%.
Haynesville and Niobrara shales are important for US oil and gas
Oil production in the Niobrara Shale increased from ~100,000 barrels per day (or bbl/d) in 2007 to ~350,000 bbl/d in August 2014. This marks an increase of ~3.5 times in seven years. According to Baker Hughes, there are currently ~62 rigs operating in Niobrara—76% of the rigs are oil-targeted.
Refinery Inputs Increase: Is It Bullish or Bearish for Crude Oil?
In its weekly report on May 20, the EIA reported that US crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.2 MMbpd during the week ending May 15.