These Are the Top 5 Upstream Energy Dividend Stocks
Investors’ preference for top dividend stocks could increase in 2020. Among sector-specific ETFs, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF reigns supreme.
The US Energy Sector: An Overview
To understand the US energy sector, it’s essential first to understand the country’s energy needs. The US uses various energy sources to meet its energy needs.
Do US Energy Stocks Look Promising?
Crude oil production continues to rise, and oil prices remain at $50. Despite that, US energy stocks aren’t getting investors’ interest.
Oil and Energy Stocks Fall after Trump’s Latest Tariff
President Trump’s new tariff impacted crude oil prices. On Thursday, the WTI near-month crude oil futures price fell approximately 8%.
Which Energy Stocks Missed Oil’s Upside?
Among the oil-weighted stocks, Apache (APA) had a correlation of 47% with US crude oil prices—the lowest among oil-weighted stocks.
Apache Outperformed Oil-Weighted Stocks
On June 5, Apache’s share prices rose 5.4%, while US crude oil prices rose 0.4%. On the same day, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) rose 2.1%.
Apache: Analysts’ Recommendations and Target Prices
Among the 31 analysts tracking Apache (APA), 48% recommended a “hold,” 26% recommended a “buy,” and 26% recommended a “sell.”
OPEC’s Role in World Oil Production
OPEC (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) aims to “coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries.”
Occidental Petroleum: What to Expect from Its Q1 Earnings
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results on May 6.
Why Apache’s Earnings May Halve in Q1 2019
Apache (APA) is set to announce its first-quarter results on May 1. Analysts expect its adjusted EPS to fall ~52% sequentially in the quarter.
Where Could Hess Stock Be Headed in the Next Seven Days?
On March 27, Hess Corporation’s (HES) implied volatility was 34.7%, ~4% higher than its 15-day average.
Energy Sector: Analyzing Key Events This Week
The EIA is scheduled to release its oil and natural gas inventory data on March 27–28, which could be a short-term driver for oil and natural gas prices.
What Could Impact Oil on March 22?
On March 21, US crude oil May futures fell 0.4% to $59.98 per barrel. Profit-booking might be behind the small decline in US crude oil.
Futures Spread: Oil Market Sentiments
On March 11, the US crude oil April 2019 futures closed ~$1.7 below the April 2020 futures. On March 4, the futures spread was at a discount of $1.8.
MLPs and Midstream Stocks: Gains and Losses Last Week
Cheniere Energy Partners, Magellan Midstream Partners, and Noble Midstream Partners were among the biggest gains last week.
Apache: Analysts’ Recommendations and Outlook
Among the 32 analysts tracking Apache (APA), 28% recommended a “buy,” 47% recommended a “hold,” and 25% recommended a “sell.”
Why Apache’s Earnings Could Fall More than 60%
Apache (APA) is set to announce its fourth-quarter earnings results on February 27. Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, its adjusted earnings per share could fall 61.9% on a sequential basis.
Analysts Cut Price Target on Concho Resources
On February 20, Concho Resources (CXO) fell 7.1%.
Kinder Morgan Expects Higher Capital Spending in 2019
Kinder Morgan (KMI) spent $2.3 billion on growth projects in 2018. The company expects to spend $3.1 billion on capital projects in 2019.
HES Stayed Above Its 50-Day Average ahead of Its Earnings Release
On January 28, Hess Corporation (HES) stock closed 2.5% above its 50-day moving average.
ConocoPhillips Might Have the Most Moderate Upside
ConocoPhillips (COP) might have an upside of 8.9% in the next 12 months based on analysts’ mean target price.
Will Earnings Data Help ConocoPhillips?
On January 18, ConocoPhillips shares closed 1.3% below the 200-day moving average. ConocoPhillips might test the key moving average.
Have Oil-Weighted Stocks Outdone Oil Prices?
On January 9–16, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 1%—compared to the 0.1% fall in US crude oil February futures.
Key Oil-Weighted Stocks amid Oil’s Up and Down
On January 16, US crude oil February futures rose 0.4% and closed at $52.31 per barrel, despite bearish EIA inventory data.
Oil: 2018 Might Be the Worst Year since 2016
So far in 2018, US crude oil prices have fallen 25%. Crude oil prices are in the red on a year-to-date basis for the first time since 2016.
OPEC’s Meeting: Key Catalyst for Oil This Week
The EIA’s latest oil and natural gas inventory data are scheduled to be released on December 5–6, respectively.
Devon Energy: Analysts Expect More than 70% Upside
Devon Energy (DVN) might have an upside of 75.1% in the next 12 months based on analysts’ mean target price.
Why Devon Energy Fell in November
In November, Devon Energy (DVN) fell 16.6%—the biggest decline on our list of upstream stocks.
ConocoPhillips: Jim Ratcliffe Eyes Assets in the United Kingdom
On November 19, ConocoPhillips (COP) confirmed to CNBC that it has been engaged in talks with Jim Ratcliffe.
XOP Is Underperforming Other Energy ETFs
On November 12–19, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) fell 1.6%—the largest decline among major energy ETFs.
ConocoPhillips’ Free Cash Flow Has Strengthened in 2018
ConocoPhillips (COP) has strengthened its FCF (free cash flow) in the past one year.
Will ConocoPhillips Continue to Deliver amid Oil’s Turbulence?
As of November 12, Brent crude oil active futures had fallen 18.3% from their almost four-year high of $86.29 per barrel on October 3.
Upstream Space Might See Upside This Week
On November 2–9, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) rose 0.6%—the least among major energy ETFs.
Key Energy Events for the Week Ending November 9
On November 8, the Fed might announce important changes to key interest rates, which would be important for the US dollar.
How Are Kinder Morgan’s Capital Projects Progressing?
Kinder Morgan expects its 2018 budgeted distributable cash flow to be impacted due to the delayed Elba Liquefaction project.
Kinder Morgan’s Third-Quarter Earnings Are Expected to Rise
Kinder Morgan (KMI) is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings on October 17 after the market closes.
Marathon Oil Has Risen ~27% in 2018
Marathon Oil (MRO) has seen a strong rally in the past month. The company has risen ~15% from its lows of $19 in August.
Comparing the Fall in Oil ETFs and Oil Last Week
On August 3–10, USO fell 1.3%, USL fell 0.5%, and UCO fell 2.8%. These ETFs track US crude oil futures.
WTI Cushing–WTI Midland Spread at Highest Level since August 2014
The Brent-WTI Midland spread reached $23.11 per barrel on May 31, which was its highest level since August 2014.
Events that Could Impact Oil Prices This Week
Between July 20 and July 27, Murphy Oil (MUR), EQT (EQT), and Apache (APA) returned 2.0%, -10.5%, and 1.4%, respectively.
A Closer Look at Permian Basin Takeaway Capacity Constraints
Permian Basin crude oil production has seen a dramatic rise in recent years.
Continental Resources’ Stock Range before Its Earnings
The current implied volatility for Continental Resources (CLR) stock is ~39.46%, which is 0.81% higher than its 15-day average of ~39.14%.
Analyzing Continental Resources’ Stock Performance
Continental Resources (CLR) stock has been on a consistent uptrend since the beginning of 2018. The stock has risen 12.6% year-to-date.
Whiting Petroleum’s Short Interest Trends
Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) short interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of float) is currently higher than it was a year ago, standing at ~13.34% in comparison to ~4.95%.
What Are Analysts’ Views on Whiting Petroleum Stock?
Of the analysts covering Whiting Petroleum (WLL) stock, 36.4% recommend “buy,” 45.5% recommend “hold,” and 12% have rated it as “underperform.”
Oil ETFs’ Performances amid Oil’s Decline
On July 13–20, the ETFs that track US crude oil futures reported negative returns. USO fell 2.2%, USL fell 1.8%, and UCO fell 4.6%.
Apache Stock: What Are Analysts’ Recommendations?
On June 11, Argus upgraded Apache stock from “hold” to “buy.” On March 7, UBS initiated coverage on Apache stock with a “sell” rating.
Forecasting Apache’s Stock Price Range
The current implied volatility in Apache’s stock (APA) is ~37.79%. In comparison, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has an implied volatility of 17.8%.
What Has Been Driving Apache Stock Lately?
Apache (APA) stock hasn’t risen as much as its peers this year. On a YoY (year-over-year) basis, Apache stock has declined 6.85%.
What’s the Forecast for Oasis Stock ahead of Q2 Earnings?
Oasis Petroleum (OAS) stock has a current implied volatility of ~50.2%, which is ~1.95% higher than its 15-day average of 49.26%.
What to Expect from Oasis Petroleum’s Q2 2018 Earnings
Oasis Petroleum (OAS) is expected to release its second-quarter earnings on August 1.
Crude Oil Bears Could Overshadow Oil Bulls
August WTI oil futures contracts fell 0.7% in early morning trading on July 18. Brent and WTI crude oil futures rose ~0.5% and ~0.03% on July 17.
What Has Deteriorated Oil’s Prospects?
On July 16, US crude oil August futures fell 4.2% and settled at $68.06 per barrel—their lowest closing level since June 21.
WTI Cushing–WTI Midland Spread Drops from Multiyear High
The WTI Cushing-WTI Midland spread was $11.25 per barrel on July 16, compared to $13.25 per barrel on July 9.
WTI Crude Oil Hit $75 on July 3: What’s Next?
August WTI crude oil prices hit an intraday high of $75.27 per barrel on July 3—the highest level since November 2014.
The Price of WTI Oil Hits $70 per Barrel: Are the Bulls Back?
US crude oil inventories fell 9.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 421.4 MMbbls from June 15–22.
What’s Apache’s Stock Price Forecast?
The current implied volatility in Apache’s stock (APA) is ~33.4%.
What Could Be Holding Back Apache Stock?
Apache stock (APA) has fallen 6.6% year-over-year driven by lackluster first-quarter earnings and increasing price differentials in the Permian.
Why Did the WTI Cushing-WTI Midland Spread Drop?
The WTI Cushing-WTI Midland spread was at $4.12 per barrel on June 25—compared to $9.7 per barrel on June 18. The spread fell 58% on June 18–25.
How Could Trade Tariffs Affect the US Upstream Sector?
Earlier this month, the White House made good on its threats and announced tariffs on Chinese goods worth $50 billion, including steel and aluminum.
Whiting Petroleum’s Improving Cost and Efficiencies in the Bakken
Whiting Petroleum’s well completion costs are expected to fall 25% from $9.1 billion in 2014 to $6.8 billion at the midpoint in 2018.
Most Analysts Recommend a ‘Buy’ for Anadarko Petroleum Stock
About 76% of the analysts covering Anadarko Petroleum (APC) have rated the stock a “buy,” and 21% have rated it a “hold.”
Traders Are Tracking OPEC’s Meeting on June 22
The crude oil production from OPEC and non-OPEC producers is expected to increase by 300,000 bpd–600,000 bpd in OPEC’s upcoming meeting.
Permian Is Most Actively Drilled followed by Anadarko, Eagle Ford
The Permian Basin has developed into one of the most active drilling regions in the United States.
What Are Analysts’ Ratings for Whiting Petroleum Stock?
Approximately 36.4% of Wall Street analysts have rated Whiting Petroleum (WLL) as a “buy,” while 45.5% of analysts have rated it as a “hold.”
S&P 500’s Top Gainers: Apache and Allergan
Apache, which is an American petroleum and natural gas exploration and production company, was the S&P 500’s top gainer on June 7.
Latest Forecasts for US Natural Gas Production Growth
According to the EIA, near-term production growth will be supported by a growing demand in a low, stable natural gas price environment.
Could WTI Crude Oil Prices Rise This Week?
The API (American Petroleum Institute) is set to release its weekly crude oil inventory report on May 30, and the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is set to release its US crude oil production data on May 31.
Forecasting WLL’s Stock Range Using Implied Volatility
Current implied volatility in Whiting Petroleum (WLL) is ~44.9%.
US Crude Oil Production Growth Forecast: Tight Oil Driving Growth
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has forecast that US crude oil production will average 10.7 million barrels per day this year.
Why Did Apache Stock Fall after Its 1Q18 Earnings?
Following its 1Q18 earnings release after the market closed on May 2, Apache (APA) stock fell ~6%.
What Are Wall Street’s Recent Ratings for Apache?
Approximately 48.2% of analysts have rated Apache Corporation (APA) as a “hold.”
What’s Holding Apache Corporation Stock Back This Year?
Apache Corporation stock has generally been on an uptrend since the beginning of this year supported by crude oil prices.
Update: Permian Rig Counts and New Well Production
In the latest US rig count report released by Baker Hughes (BHI), the number of active US rigs drilling for oil grew by four to 804 last week, compared to the previous week.
Tight Oil Contribution to Rise to 70%: Key Permian Basin Driver
In its “Annual Energy Outlook 2018,” the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that US tight oil production will mostly increase through early 2040.
Permian Driving US Crude Oil Production Growth
The EIA has forecast that US crude oil production in 2018 will average 10.7 million barrels per day.
Apache Stock: Gauging Short Interest Trends
The short interest in Apache (APA) stock on February 22, 2018, was ~7.5%. Apache’s short interest ratio a year ago was ~4.9%.
Apache Reported Upbeat 4Q17 Revenues and Earnings
On February 22, 2018, Apache (APA) reported its 4Q17 and fiscal 2017 earnings. Apache reported revenues of ~$1.58 billion in 4Q17.
Oasis Petroleum’s 4Q17 Results: What to Expect on February 28
Oasis Petroleum (OAS) is expected to release its fiscal 4Q17 earnings on February 28.
Implied Volatility in APA Stock: Forecasting Its Stock Price Range
The current implied volatility in Apache stock (APA) is ~50.5%, which is 1.2% higher than its 15-day average of ~31.3%.
What Do Wall Street Analysts Expect for Apache Stock?
About 48.3% of the analysts covering Apache (APA) stock have rated it a “hold,” and ~17.2% of the analysts have rated the stock as a “buy.”
Wall Street Targets for Worst-Performing XLE Stocks in 2017
As of January 23, 2018, 32 analysts have recommendations for Range Resources (RRC). Seven have “strong buy” recommendations, and 15 have “buy” recommendations for the stock.
Forecasting Hess’s Stock Price Based on Its Implied Volatility
Hess’s implied volatility Hess’s (HES) current implied volatility is ~32.3%, which is ~3.1% higher than its 15-day average of ~31.3%. In comparison, peers Apache (APA), Concho Resources (CXO), and Continental Resources (CLR) have implied volatility of ~30.1%, 20.4%, and ~28.4, respectively. Stock price forecast Based on Hess’s implied volatility of ~32.3% and assuming a normal distribution of […]
The Top 10 Upstream Stocks on the Street: What the Analysts Think
Noble Energy has the highest “buy” recommendations at ~48.4% of analysts, followed closely by ConocoPhillips and Anadarko.
Who’s on Top in Upstream: Comparing Operating Cash Flows
In this series, we’ll look at the top ten upstream companies based on cash flow from operating activities during the first nine months of 2017.
What’s the Forecast for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that US crude oil production will average 9.2 million barrels per day in 2017.
Trends in Drilling and Completion Costs in the Permian Basin
According to IHS Markit, there will be a 10% increase in the cost index for the Permian region by the end of 2017.
A Look at the Trends in Permian Rig Counts
In the latest US rig count report released by Baker Hughes (BHI), the number of active US rigs drilling for oil rose by two to 751 in the week ended December 8, 2017.
Wolfcamp Benches and Permian Production Growth
According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), Permian Basin production will increase to 4 million barrels per day by 2019.
Could Permian Basin Drive Growth in US Crude Oil Production?
In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (or STEO) report, the EIA forecast that US crude oil production in 2017 would average 9.2 million barrels per day.
Forecasting Anadarko’s Stock Price via Implied Volatility
Anadarko Petroleum’s (APC) implied volatility is 28.5%, which is ~5% lower than its 15-day average of ~30%.
Gauging the Short Interest Trend in Apache Stock
On November 15, 2017, the short interest as a percentage of float (or short interest ratio) in Apache stock was ~7.1%, compared with 5.4% in January 2017.
How Has Apache Stock Performed This Year?
On a YTD (year-to-date) basis, Apache (APA) stock has fallen ~36%. The downtrend in Apache’s stock price had been due to lower crude oil prices.
Where Apache’s Relative Valuation Stands next to Peers
Apache’s (APA) forward EV-to-EBITDA ratio is 6.3x, compared with Concho Resources’ higher forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of ~11.3x.
Could Apache Achieve Free Cash Flow Neutrality Next Year?
In 3Q17, Apache (APA) reported CFO (cash flow from operations) of $554 million, which was ~15% lower than its CFO in 3Q16.
A Look at Apache’s Operating Cash Margins in 3Q17
Apache (APA) has noted that its cash margins in the Permian Basin averaged $18 per boe (barrels of oil equivalent) in 3Q17.
Will Alpine High Have an Impact on APA’s Oil Production Mix?
Crude oil represented 53.0% of Apache’s (APA) total production in 3Q17.
APA’s Operational Update and Guidance: Permian and North America
Apache’s North American production totaled 231 Mboepd in 3Q17, while its adjusted production (excluding Canadian production) averaged 207 Mboepd.
Continental Resources’ 3Q17 Earnings and Revenue Beat Estimates
Continental Resources (CLR) held its 3Q17 earnings conference on November 8. CLR released its earnings the day before after markets closed.
Rising Crude Oil Prices Could Impact Coal Miners
As of November 3, 2017, Brent crude oil prices rose 2.1% on a week-over-week basis. Brent crude oil settled at $62.07 per barrel on November 3, 2017.