OPEC’s crude oil production

According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), OPEC’s crude oil production fell by 150,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.77 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in August 2017—compared to July 2017. Production fell 0.5% month-over-month but rose by 61,000 bpd or 0.2% year-over-year.

OPEC’s crude oil production fell in August 2017 due to the production cut deal and supply outage in Libya. Any fall in OPEC’s crude oil production is bullish for crude oil (FXN) (ERY) (ERX) prices.

Higher crude oil prices are positive for oil and gas producers like Contango Oil & Gas (MCF), Bill Barrett (BBG), Hess (HES), and Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI).

OPEC’s Crude Oil Production and Exports Impact Crude Oil Prices

OPEC’s crude oil exports 

A Reuters survey estimates that OPEC’s crude oil exports fell by 920,000 bpd to 25.19 MMbpd in August 2017—compared to July. Saudi Arabia is OPEC’s largest crude oil producer and exporter. It’s expected to cut crude oil exports to worldwide customers by 520,000 bpd in September 2017 and 350,000 bpd in October 2017. As a result, OPEC’s crude oil exports could fall in September 2017 and October 2017. Any fall in OPEC’s crude oil exports is bullish for crude oil (FENY) (IXC) (IYE) prices.

OPEC’s crude oil production estimates

The EIA estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production averaged 31.66 MMbpd in 2015 and 32.69 MMbpd 2016. It’s expected to average 32.48 MMbpd in 2017 and 32.99 MMbpd 2018.

OPEC and the production cut deal

On September 10, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister discussed a possible extension of the production cut deal beyond March 2018 with Venezuela and Kazakhstan. Russia could also support extending the production cut deal.


A fall in OPEC’s crude oil production and exports would benefit crude oil (IXC) (IYE) prices. However, OPEC’s crude oil production is expected to rise in 2018.

So, a possible production cut deal extension beyond March 2018 would help crude oil (SCO) (BNO) prices.

In the next part of this series, we’ll see how Iran’s crude oil production could impact crude oil prices.

Latest articles

This morning the US stock market opened on a strong bullish note after the Federal Reserve hinted at a cut in the interest rates yesterday. Also, renewed US-China trade optimism helped the S&P 500 Index reach new heights today. The world’s two largest economies have started trade negotiations once again ahead of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting next week.

Extreme value retailer Grocery Outlet Holding (GO) announced on June 19 that it had priced its IPO at $22 per share, well above its target price range of $18–$19. Initially, the company had planned to sell its shares in the range of $15–$17.

20 Jun

NIO Stock Is Soaring, Tesla Continues to Fall

WRITTEN BY Jitendra Parashar

On June 20, NIO (NIO) is trading on a bullish note for the fourth consecutive session. At 11:00 AM ET, NIO stock has risen 8.1% at $2.96. Earlier on June 20, the stock rose above the psychological level of $3.00.

20 Jun

Will Refiners’ Earnings Plunge in 2019?

WRITTEN BY Maitali Ramkumar

Wall Street analysts expect refining firms' earnings to fall in 2019. Delek US Holdings (DK) and Valero Energy’s (VLO) earnings are estimated to fall less than 10% in 2019. However, the EPS of Marathon Petroleum (MPC), HollyFrontier (HFC), and Phillips 66 (PSX) are expected to fall 20%–40% this year.

After remaining tepid for the first four months of the year, gold prices have taken off in a big way. The initial impetus was provided by a tweet made by President Donald Trump on May 5, which revived trade tensions in a big way.

20 Jun

How Are Charter’s Revenues Trending in 2019?

WRITTEN BY Ambrish Shah

In the first quarter, Charter Communications (CHTR) reported total revenues of $11.2 billion—a rise of 5.2% year-over-year and $7 million ahead of the consensus estimate.