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Crude Oil Prices Settle below Key Moving Averages after Brexit
Market surveys project that the global crude oil glut could narrow due to supply outages in 2016.
Southwestern Energy Didn’t Follow Natural Gas to the Upside
Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) stock price fell ~2.7% for the week ending January 26, 2018. Natural gas (UGAZ) (DGAZ) (UNG) prices increased ~10.0%.
Crude Oil Market Shifts Focus to API Crude Oil Inventory Report
A Reuters survey showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 100,000 barrels between August 26 and September 2, 2016.
Investors Should Look at Rigs before Placing Bets on Oil
The US crude oil rig count was 525 in the week ending December 30—a rise of two rigs compared to the previous week, according to data released by BHI.
Why Did Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Hit a New Record?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Cushing crude oil stocks rose by 36,000 barrels to 65 MMbbls for the week ending February 12, 2016.
Decoding OPEC Members’ Crude Production in July 2016
Lower crude oil prices impact US and international oil producers’ profitability such as PetroChina (PTR), Sanchez Energy (SN), and Stone Energy (SGY).
Is $30 for Crude Oil Coming?
US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (DBO) futures contracts for May delivery closed at $48.24 per barrel on March 21, 2017.
How US Crude Oil Imports and Refinery Demand Affect Inventories
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US refinery crude oil demand fell 182,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 15,370,000 bpd between October 7 and October 14.
EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report Supports Bearish Traders
The EIA reported that the US commercial crude oil inventory rose by 2.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 487.4 MMbbls for the week ending December 25, 2015.
Triple Top Pattern: Crude Oil Prices Could Decline
WTI crude oil prices are declining for the third day in a row. The bearish sentiments could push oil to test the support of $55 per barrel.
Nordic Bank SEB Revises Crude Oil Price Forecasts
Leading Nordic bank SEB raised its Brent crude oil forecast to $48 per barrel for 2016 compared to its previous forecast of $44 per barrel.
Will the US Crude Oil Output Rise in November?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) published that the US crude oil output rose by 48,000 bpd to 9.2 MMbpd for the week ending October 30, 2015.
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories Could Support Crude Oil Prices
A decrease in crude oil inventories at Cushing supports crude oil prices. High crude oil prices positively impact crude oil and gas producers’ earnings.
Crude Oil Traders Are Skeptical about OPEC Production Cap Plans
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for November delivery fell 1.1% and closed at $50.79 per barrel on October 11, 2016.
Will Crude Oil Prices Test $60 per Barrel?
Brent crude oil prices could trade between $35 and $40 per barrel in 2016 due to a stronger dollar, oversupply, and near-record US crude oil inventories.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Fell for 4th Straight Week
Last week, Baker Hughes reported that the US crude oil rig count fell by one rig to 515 rigs for the week ending January 15, 2016.
US Dollar Near 13-Month Low: Can It Drive Crude Oil Futures?
The US Dollar Index fell 0.50% to 92.7 on July 31, 2017. It’s the lowest level in the last 13 months.
Gasoline Stocks Fell due to Rise in Demand
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 245.1 MMbbls for the week ending March 18, 2016.
Will 2017 or 2018 Mark the Return of the Bulls?
The EIA published its monthly STEO report on January 12, 2016. The global crude oil production will rise to 95.9 MMbpd in 2016 and 96.7 MMbpd in 2017.
Analyzing Devon Energy’s 3Q17 Revenues Expectations
For 3Q17, Wall Street analysts expect Devon Energy (DVN) to report revenues of ~$3.17 billion. On a year-over-year basis, DVN’s 3Q17 revenues expectations are ~10% higher compared with 3Q16 revenues of ~$2.88 billion.
Global Crude Oil Supply Outages Impact Crude Oil Prices
The EIA estimates that global crude oil supply outages fell by 38,000 bpd to 2,284,000 bpd in November 2016—compared to the previous month.
Why Is May the Magic Month for Crude Oil Inventories?
In 2012 and 2014, crude oil inventories fell in May. The five-year average from 2011 to 2015 also indicates that crude oil inventories typically fall in May.
US Gasoline Futures Recover from a 1-Month Low
January gasoline futures rose 0.7% to $1.42 per gallon on November 23, 2016. Prices rose despite the larger-than-expected rise in US gasoline inventories.
US Oil Inventories Spread Impacts Crude Oil Prices
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by ~6.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in the week ending January 27, 2017—compared to the previous week.
A Look at Cobalt International Energy’s 2Q17 Revenues
For 2Q17, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) reported revenues of ~$14.0 million, which was lower than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$34.0 million.
Why Occidental Petroleum Saw Its Debt Level Increase
As of September 30, 2017, Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) total debt was ~$9.8 billion. With ~$1.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, its net debt is ~$8 billion at the end of 3Q17.
Will US Crude Oil Inventories Extend Oil’s Gains?
September WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (IEZ) (SCO) (BNO) futures contracts rose 1% to $48.34 per barrel in electronic trading at 2:10 AM EST on July 26, 2017.
What to Expect from OPEC’s Crude Oil Production in August 2017
October WTI (or West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (USO) (UCO) futures contracts rose 0.4% and were trading at $47.73 per barrel in electronic trade at 2:00 AM EST on August 22, 2017.
Oil Contango: What It Means for Investors
On April 11, 2017, May 2017 crude oil (DBO) (OIIL) (USL) futures were trading at a discount of $1.15 to May 2018 futures contracts.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production: Time to Sell Oil Futures?
Libya plans to pump 1.25 million barrels per day of crude oil by December 2017. An increase in Libya’s crude oil production could weigh on oil prices.
Market Moves Focus to OPEC Meeting in November
Crude oil prices rose 12% in August 2016, partially due to speculation around OPEC’s attempts to cap output.
Backwardation: What It Could Mean for Crude Oil Prices
When the crude oil futures forward curve to slopes downwards, the situation in the crude oil futures market is called “backwardation.”
How US Consumer Sentiment Affects Energy Commodities
The US consumer sentiment index was at 96.9 in March’s final reading.
Declining Crude Oil Inventory versus Oversupply Sentiments
July WTI crude oil futures trading on NYMEX showed the rectangular trading range pattern. Prices have been fluctuating between $58 and $61 per barrel for a few weeks.
Are Hedge Funds Turning Bearish on Crude Oil?
The CFTC’s report showed that hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options for the fourth straight week.
Iran’s Crude Oil Exports Could Impact Crude Oil Prices
The rise in crude oil export capacity suggests that Iran’s getting ready for a massive increase in crude oil production in 2018.
How the Crude Oil Market Could React to the Doha Oil Producers Meeting
A meeting of oil producers is scheduled in Doha, Qatar, for April 17. The meeting is meant to support crude prices and will focus on freezing production.
Did Crude Oil Prices Move ConocoPhillips’s Stock Last Week?
ConocoPhillips’s (COP) stock price rose more than 4% in the week ended February 23. Crude oil and natural gas prices each rose ~3%.
Analyzing Libya’s Crude Oil Production
A Reuters survey estimates that Libya’s crude oil production fell by ~20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 670,000 bpd in February 2017—compared to January 2017.
How Could China and India Support Crude Oil Prices?
Slowing non-OPEC crude oil production would support crude oil prices in 2016. The rise in Chinese crude oil imports boosted crude oil prices in March.
Hedge Funds Change Net Long Positions in WTI Crude Oil
The CFTC released its weekly Commitments of Traders report on March 3. Hedge funds’ net long positions hit 413,637 contracts in the week ending February 21.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the First Time in 5 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose by 0.4 MMbbls to 146.7 MMbbls on May 19–26, 2017. Distillate inventories rose 0.3% week-over-week but fell 1.9% YoY.
US Crude Oil Inventory: Will It Pressure Crude Oil Prices This Week?
The estimates of rising US crude oil inventories could add more pain for crude oil prices. Low crude oil prices negatively impact crude oil producers.
Will US Crude Oil Futures Be Range Bound This Week?
WTI crude oil (USO) futures hit $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017—the highest level in nearly three years.
How Cushing Inventories Could Affect Crude Oil Prices in 2017
Market surveys suggest that Cushing crude oil inventories rose between December 16 and December 23, 2016.
Crude Oil Prices Fall: Strong Dollar and Oversupply to Blame
June WTI crude oil futures contracts trading on NYMEX fell 0.85% and closed at $47.75 per barrel on Friday, May 20. Crude oil prices fell due to profit-booking and a strong dollar.
US Crude Oil Inventory Report Might Disappoint Traders
An unexpected increase in US oil inventories pressured WTI oil (USO) (UCO) prices in post-settlement trade on November 28, 2017.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Could Impact Crude Oil Prices
Libya produced ~1.8 MMbpd of crude in 2007. Civil war and militant attacks on its oil infrastructure caused the fall in Libya’s crude oil production.
Analyzing Crude Oil Price Forecasts for 2Q17
A market survey of 31 banks shows that US WTI crude oil prices could average $54.5 per barrel in 2Q17. In 2Q17, prices could break the February 2017 high.
Will the Energy Sector Enter a Bear Market?
On March 23, 2017, US crude oil futures contracts for May delivery closed at $47.70 per barrel—an ~0.7% fall over the previous trading session.
Hopes for Oil Producer Meeting Boosted Prices for Last 2 Months
The Doha meeting was originally scheduled for March 2016. However, due to scheduling difficulties, it had to be postponed, which led to a rise in crude oil price volatility.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Reached a 3-Year High
Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that the country’s crude oil production rose by 300,000 bpd between September 2016 and January 2017.
OPEC Could Pressure US Natural Gas Prices in 2018
US natural gas rigs rose 35% in the last 12 months, while US natural gas prices (UNG) fell 20% during this period.
Will Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Support Crude Oil Bulls?
October US crude oil futures contracts fell 0.3% to $46.31 per barrel in early electronic trading on August 30, 2017.
How Geopolitical Tensions Are Affecting Oil Prices
Supply outages in the Kurdistan region supported crude oil (BNO) (USO) (USL) prices last week.
Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Production Rose to an All-Time High
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose by 3,000 barrels per day to 10.7 MMbpd in August 2016. Its crude oil production hit an all-time high in August 2016.
US Crude Oil Inventories: Bearish Driver for Crude Oil
The EIA estimates that US oil inventories rose by 1,854,000 barrels to 458.9 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 3–10, 2017.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Fourth Time in 5 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose for the fourth time in the last five weeks. They rose ~3% in the last five weeks, which is bearish for diesel and oil prices.
Traders Focus on the API and EIA’s Crude Oil Inventories
On May 16, 2017, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories rose by 0.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on May 5–12, 2017.
Crude Oil Prices Are Trading Close to One-Month High
WTI crude oil settled at $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016, the lowest since 2003. They felt the heat due to easing supply outages, high OPEC, and Russian crude oil production.
Crude Oil Prices Resume the Long-Term Trend
Crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive day. Prices fell by 11% in the last two days after rising by 25% since January 20, 2016.
What Are the Key Drivers for the Crude Oil Market This Week?
July West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 2.9% and settled at $49.37 per barrel on June 20, 2016.
EIA Downgraded US and Brent Crude Oil Price Forecasts
The EIA released its monthly STEO report on May 9, 2017. It estimates that US WTI crude oil prices would average $50.68 per barrel in 2017.
Pioneer Natural Resources: How Did It Perform in 1Q16?
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) announced its 1Q16 earnings on April 25, 2016, after the market close.
Hedge Funds Reduced Their Bullish Bets on Crude Oil
On March 17, the CFTC released its weekly Commitments of Traders report. Hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US WTI crude oil contracts.
API Crude Oil Stocks Could Add More Pain for Crude Oil Prices
On April 19, the API will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. The US crude oil inventory rose by 6.22 MMbbls for the week ending April 8, 2016.
Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Production Rose: Will Prices Fall More?
Saudi Arabia reported that its crude oil production rose by 263,300 bpd (barrels per day) to 10.01 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in February 2017.
US Crude Oil Production Hit a 13-Month High
US crude oil production is at the highest level since February 2016. The rise in crude oil production pressured crude oil prices on March 8, 2017.
Crude Oil Fell Again: What about Oil-Weighted Stocks?
On July 11, 2016, US crude oil closed at $44.76 per barrel. That’s 1.4% below its previous closing price. That’s also 12.6% below its highest level for 2016.
Why US Crude Oil Production Hit a 5-Week Low
The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” on October 12. It estimates that US crude oil production fell by 81,000 bpd (barrels per day).
What Really Moved ConocoPhillips Stock Last Week?
For the week ending October 20, ConocoPhillips stock showed a negative correlation of -15% with crude oil (USO) (SCO).
Why ConocoPhillips Is Highly Correlated With Crude Oil
ConocoPhillips’s stock performance As we discussed previously, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) stock price fell ~9% in the week ended February 9, and the price of crude oil (USO) (SCO) fell almost 10%. Therefore, ConocoPhillips’s stock price seems to have followed crude oil prices. In this part, we’ll discuss the correlation between ConocoPhillips and crude oil. ConocoPhillips’s stock price correlation In […]
Why US Crude Oil Production Is Bearish for Oil Prices
US crude oil production hit 9.6 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in June 2015, the highest level ever.
Crude Oil Prices Seem Directionless: Spinning Top Pattern
WTI crude oil futures for June delivery showed the emergence of the spinning top pattern on May 8, 2015. The spinning top is a candlestick pattern.
OPEC and Non-OPEC Meeting Could Drive Crude Oil Futures
August US crude oil futures contracts rose 0.4% and closed at $44.4 per barrel on July 10. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $46.8 per barrel.
Could Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Support the Crude Oil Price Rally?
The EIA reported that Cushing crude oil inventories fell by 1.26 MMbbls to 66.2 MMbbls for the week ending March 11, 2016.
Energy Calendar for Oil and Gas Traders: May 1–5
The energy sector contributed to ~6.3% of the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) on April 28, 2017. Oil and gas are major parts of the energy sector.
OPEC Could Extend Crude Oil Production Cuts beyond 2018
March US crude oil futures contracts fell 0.9% to $65.56 per barrel on January 29, 2018. Brent oil futures fell 1.5% to $69.46 per barrel on the same day.
Why US Crude Oil Production Could Hit a Record High in 2018
US crude oil production According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), US crude oil production rose 13,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,658,000 bpd between November 10 and 17, 2017. Production, which rose for the fifth straight week, has been pressuring oil (SCO) prices in the last few weeks. Production has risen 977,000 bpd (11.3%) year-over-year. Any […]
How Asia’s Crude Oil Demand Could Support Crude Oil Prices
High demand from China, India, and South Korea will have a positive impact on crude oil prices.
Crude Oil Futures Could Break $55 per Barrel
WTI crude oil (USL) (SCO) (IEZ) futures contracts for May delivery rose 0.6% to $53.7 per barrel in electronic trade at 5:20 AM EST on April 12, 2017.
Analyzing US Crude Oil Inventories and Production
The API released its weekly crude oil inventory report on July 11. It estimates that US crude oil inventories fell by 8.1 MMbbls on June 30–July 7, 2017.
Will US Oil Rigs Support Crude Oil Bulls?
US crude oil rigs are near a five-month low. West Texas Intermediate (or WTI) crude oil (UWT) (DWT) prices are down 8.8% year-to-date (or YTD).
China’s Crude Oil Imports Hit a New Record
China’s General Administration of Customs reported that China’s crude oil imports rose to 9.21 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in March 2017.
API Crude Inventory Estimates Could Weigh on Crude Oil Prices
On September 20, the API will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories could have risen by 2,300,000 barrels from September 9–16.
China’s Crude Oil Production: A Game Changer in 2016?
China’s crude oil production could fall by 3%–5% in 2016. The fall in China’s crude oil production would be substituted by the rise in China’s crude oil imports.
Why Did Brent and WTI Crude Oil Prices Hit Monthly Lows?
US benchmark WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for May delivery fell by 3% and closed at $35.7 per barrel on April 4, 2016.
Why US Gasoline Inventories Rose for the Third Straight Week
A less-than-expected rise in gasoline inventories supported gasoline prices on May 3, 2017. Gasoline and crude oil (DIG) (SCO) (VDE) prices rose on May 3.
WTI Crude Oil Charts: Will History Repeat This Time?
WTI crude oil futures for June delivery showed the rectangular trading range pattern. Oil prices have been fluctuating between $58 and $61 per barrel for the last ten days.
Will US Crude Oil Inventories Fall for the Ninth Week?
The API estimated that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.6 MMbbls (million barrels) between May 26, 2017, and June 2, 2017.
North American Oil and Gas Producers’ Debt Rose in 2015
AlixPartners surveyed 134 public companies in the US and Canada. The surveys showed that they had a cumulative long-term debt of more than $353 billion in 2015.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Eighth Time in 10 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose by 0.64 MMbbls (million barrels) to 139.8 MMbbls on January 12–19, 2018, according to the EIA.
US Crude Oil Prices Are Near a 2-Week Low
US crude oil prices fell in post-settlement trade on April 18, 2017, after the API’s (American Petroleum Institute) crude oil inventory report.
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories’ Record Highs: Impact on Oil
Market surveys estimate that Cushing crude oil inventories fell from February 10 to 17, 2017. A fall in crude oil inventories at Cushing could support US crude oil prices.
Near-Record US Crude Oil Inventory: Will Oil Blood Bath Continue?
June WTI crude oil futures contracts fell 0.40% and were trading at $48.68 per barrel in electronic trade at 2:35 AM EST on May 2, 2017.
Oil Prices Passed $50—a Key Psychological Number
US crude oil prices briefly breached the psychologically significant mark of $50 per barrel.
Long Positions Fall in the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report
The CFTC’s COT report states that hedge funds reduced their long positions for the week ending January 12, 2016. The net long positions fell by 20,673 contracts to 163,504 contracts during the week.
Uncertain Times for the Crude Oil Market: Neutral Doji Pattern
June WTI crude oil futures showed the neutral doji pattern on May 9. Oil prices are swinging due to the frequent change in supply and demand dynamics.
Global Crude Oil Supply Outages Could Push Oil Prices Higher
According to the EIA, global crude oil supply outages increased by 208,000 bpd or 14% to 1,738,000 bpd in December 2017—compared to November 2017.
The Crude Oil Futures Spread, and Why It Could Worry Oil Longs
Active crude oil futures are now trading at a discount of $1.56 to futures contracts 12 months from now—a situation known as “contango.”
