PBF Energy Inc

Phillips 66 (PSX) posted its earnings on July 29, 2016. On the day, PSX’s implied volatility fell by 5% to 23.2 compared to the previous day.

In 2Q17, Phillips 66’s revenues missed Wall Street analysts’ estimates by 1%. However, its 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $1.09 surpassed estimates of $1.01.

Phillips 66’s stock price could close between $87.7 per share and $83.5 per share in the ten-day period after its earnings. The period ends on August 11.

On April 27, Phillips 66 opened at $110.8 per share—lower than the previous close of $112.5. Phillips 66 opened lower despite its 1Q18 earnings beat.

The analyst survey shows that nine out of the 12 companies surveyed rated Marathon Petroleum (MPC) as a “buy,” “overweight,” or “outperform.”

Currently, MPC trades at a forward PE (price-to-earnings) ratio of 14.8x, above its peer average of 13.8x.

Before analyzing Tesoro’s (TSO) refining index for 2Q16, let’s take a look at TSO’s refining margin trend up to 1Q16.

The correlation coefficient of Phillips 66 (PSX) versus WTI stands at 0.40.

Four (27%) of the 15 analysts covering DK have rated it a “buy” so far in August 2017.

US distillate inventories increased for the sixth time in the last seven weeks. The inventories rose ~11% in the last seven weeks.

The EIA estimates that the four-week average US gasoline demand increased 2.4% to 9,701,000 bpd (barrels per day) on June 22–29.

The Baupost Group, LLC, is a hedge fund founded and run by Seth Klarman in 1982. Why sell Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC)?

US distillate inventories rose by 0.64 MMbbls (million barrels) to 139.8 MMbbls on January 12–19, 2018, according to the EIA.

Since October 1, the beginning of the fourth quarter, HollyFrontier (HFC) stock has fallen 25%.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) was the biggest loser last week from the refining and marketing sector.

Seth Klarman’s The Baupost Group added a 12.04% stake in Paratek Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PRTK), according to a 13G filing in December.

Valero Energy (VLO) stock fell 10.3% on Friday, October 19. That same day, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from a “neutral” to a “sell.”

The Baupost Group, LLC, is a hedge fund founded and run by Seth Klarman in 1982. Why sell American International Group (AIG)?

The Baupost Group, LLC, is a hedge fund founded and run by Seth Klarman in 1982. Why sell Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY)?

On November 30–December 7, Superior Energy Services (SPN) fell the most on our list of energy stocks.

On February 23, 2017, Alon USA Energy (ALJ) had the highest short interest-to-equity float ratio among our list of integrated energy and refiner stocks. Its ratio was 13.9%.

The EIA’s (U.S Energy Information Administration) most recent weekly gasoline and diesel fuel price report showed that US regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.02 per gallon yesterday.

Marathon Petroleum stock has plunged 7% year-to-date. Due to its falling price in 1Q17, the stock has broken below its 50-day moving average.

Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, Phillips 66 (PSX) stock has fallen 20.3%.

On April 3, 2017, PBF Energy (PBF) had the highest short-interest-to-equity float ratio among these integrated energy and refiner stocks.

Since January 3, 2017, Tesoro stock has fallen 8%, more than its peers Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy, the leading American downstream companies.

According to MPC, a dollar-per-barrel change in the blended LLS 6-3-2-1 crack spread affects its annual net income by $450 million.

US distillate inventories fell by 3.8 MMbbls or 2.7% to 139.2 MMbbls on January 5–12, 2018. The inventories fell by 29.9 MMbbls or 18% from a year ago.

The correlation value between Marathon and oil prices indicates that in the past year, stock prices of MPC have moved in line with crude oil prices.

Lately, Middle East tensions and slowing US production are driving oil prices higher. Oil prices gained 21% in April 2015.

MPC trades at valuations above its peer averages, likely because it is now in the process of restructuring the organization to unlock value.

PBF Energy (PBF) noted a fall in its gross refining margin by $3.60 per barrel to $8.80 per barrel in 4Q15 as compared to 4Q14.

Contrary to the trend in PSX, implied volatility in Delek US Holdings (DK) rose 0.1% since October 27 to the current level of 37.2%.

About 41% of the surveyed analysts who cover Phillips 66 (PSX) rate the company a “buy.” Another 53% rate it a “hold.”

Fifteen of the 19 analysts covering Andeavor (ANDV) rated it as a “buy” in December 2017.

Comparing Valero’s valuation In this last part, we’ll compare Valero Energy’s (VLO) valuation with peers’. VLO is presently trading at a forward PE (price-to-earnings) ratio of 13.4x, below its peers’ average of 13.9x. Peers PBF Energy (PBF) and CVR Refining (CVRR) also have below-average ratios, of 12.3x and 11.2x, respectively. Also, VLO has a forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise […]

Phillips 66 (PSX) stock has risen 10.5% in the current quarter. The stock has outperformed the equity market in the fourth quarter.

Valero Energy (VLO) stock has risen 11.6% sequentially. The stock has risen due to stronger refining conditions in the current quarter.

Valero Energy (VLO) stock has been rising and is up by 10.1% quarter-to-date. Its short interest has also risen. Here’s why.

The crack spread is a major component that drives refiners’ valuation. In this article, we’ll look at the metric’s different aspects.

Valero Energy’s (VLO) stock price is up by 11% quarter-to-date. The stock is surging due to robust refining conditions.

Valero Energy stock has been on an upward spree this year. The stock has risen 9.8% sequentially. The stock price rose due to expanding refining cracks.

Valero Energy (VLO) stock has risen by 10% this quarter, driven by refining cracks expanding. Other refining stocks have also risen.

Oil refining and marketing stocks have been on investors’ radar. Valero Energy (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) have risen 29.0% and 29.7%, respectively, YTD.

Valero Energy stock has surged by 14.2% quarter-to-date. Strengthening refining cracks, recovering oil spreads, and rising equity markets have boosted VLO.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) (BRK-B) reduced its stake in Phillips 66 stock by almost 6.7% in the third quarter.

Valero Energy (VLO) stock has risen 18% sequentially. The stock has risen due to better-than-expected results and growing equity markets.

So far this month, Delek and HollyFrontier stocks have fallen 3.7% and 2.7%, respectively. In contrast, PBF stock has risen 2.3%.

Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX) accounted for a 6.25% position in Baupost’s fourth quarter portfolio. The hedge fund increased its stock holdings in Idenix last month.

Downstream firms Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) had a mixed performance in the third quarter.

AQR Capital Management is an investment management firm founded in 1998 by former Goldman Sachs portfolio manager Clifford Asness.

Phillips 66’s (PSX) earnings surprised Wall Street. The company’s adjusted EPS was at $3.1, which crushed analysts’ EPS estimate of $2.6.

Valero Energy’s earnings and revenue surpassed analysts’ estimates in the third quarter. Its EPS of $1.48 topped analysts’ estimate by about 10%.

In a bid to find a solution to the biofuels issue, President Trump met with the CEOs of several refiners as well as senators from the major farming states.

Weaker equity markets have dragged down refining stocks this month, resulting in their dividend yields rising. Let’s see how they stack up.

Shell stock (RDS.A) (RDS.B) fell 7% on August 1, its earnings release day. After its earnings, CFRA downgraded Shell stock and cut its price target.

Analysts expect Delek’s EPS to fall by 38% YoY and 45% quarter-over-quarter to $0.84 in the second quarter of 2019.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) plans to post its second-quarter results on August 1.

The shutdown at Philadelphia Energy Solutions could increase US oil inventories in the coming weeks. But at the same time, gasoline inventories might decline. The Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery has a refining capacity of 335,000 barrels per day. On June 26, the United States Gasoline Fund (UGA), which follows gasoline prices, rose 4%.

Let’s rank six US refiners based on the number of “buy” ratings they’ve received from Wall Street analysts ahead of their second-quarter earnings results.

PBF Energy’s (PBF) earnings are estimated to fall by 49% to $1.7 in 2019, which is the highest estimated fall in earnings compared to peers. Delek US Holdings (DK), Valero Energy (VLO), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are estimated to post 4%, 10%, and 21% falls in earnings in 2019, respectively.

Refining stocks’ valuations have fallen sharply due to the fall in their stock prices. For these stocks, the average forward PE ratio is at 5.4x.

Currently, Phillips 66 (PSX) is covered by 19 analysts. Analysts’ ratings for the stock have improved in the past year.

Now, let’s review Valero’s stock performance before its fourth-quarter earnings results. The stock has risen marginally in the past month.

PBF Energy ranks third with 56% implied gains based on its target price. The implied gains have risen due to the fall in the stock price.

Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) dividend yield has risen due to a fall in its stock price.

Phillips 66 (PSX) posted its third-quarter results on October 26. Its revenues rose 16% YoY to $30 billion, and adjusted EPS was $3.10.

HollyFrontier’s (HFC) forward PE ratio is 10.4x, below peers’ average of 11.2x. Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC), Andeavor’s (ANDV), and Phillips 66’s (PSX) forward PE ratios are higher than the average, at 12.8x, 13.8x, and 12.1x, respectively.

Of the 17 analysts tracking Phillips 66 (PSX), seven analysts gave “buy” or “strong buy” ratings on the stock.

Delek US Holdings (DK) is presently trading at a forward PE multiple of 8.2x, below peers’ average of 11.5x.

HollyFrontier’s stock price could close between $91.4 per share and $62.9 per share for the 109-day period ending on September 28.

PBF’s market cap of ~$5.0 billion ranks it sixth among the seven companies being discussed in this series.

In the past year, VLO’s 50-DMA (day moving average) has been higher than its 200-DMA.

Eleven of the 21 analysts covering Valero Energy (VLO) have rated it a “buy.”

The EIA estimates that US crude oil exports increased by 689,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 2,566,000 bpd on May 4–11.

Phillips 66 reported its earnings on April 27. After Phillips 66’s 1Q18 earnings, the implied volatility fell 4.7% to the current level of 19.2%.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Andeavor (ANDV) have entered an agreement to merge. Today, ANDV opened with a bang!

Phillips 66 (PSX) posted its 1Q18 results today. Let’s compare its 1Q18 performance and estimates.

Valero Energy posted its 1Q18 results yesterday. Let’s compare VLO’s 1Q18 performance to estimates.

In this part, we’ll forecast Phillips 66’s stock price based on its implied volatility for the 16 days leading up to its earnings release.

Phillips 66 (PSX) is anticipated to post its 1Q18 results on April 27, 2018.

The US Gulf WTI 3-2-1 crack has risen 9.0% over 1Q17 to $15.00 per barrel in 1Q18.

Delek US Holdings (DK) is seventh on our list of seven downstream dividend-yielding stocks that we’re covering in this series.

In this series, we’ll rank refining stocks by their dividend yields and see if the dividends have risen, fallen, or remained steady.

Short interest in Phillips 66 (PSX) expressed as a percentage of outstanding shares has fallen from 1.5% on February 14, 2018, to the current level of 1.1%.

Five (or 29%) of the 17 analysts covering PBF have rated it a “buy” in March 2018. Eight analysts (or 47%) have rated it a “hold.”

Currently, MPC is trading at a forward PE (price-to-earnings) multiple of 12.5x, higher than its peer average of 11.9x.

Marathon Petroleum (as seen a rise in its short interest (as a percentage of outstanding shares) from 1.5% on January 2, 2018, to the current level of 1.7%.

Valero Energy (VLO) has seen a rise in its short interest from 3.4% on January 2, 2018, to its current level of 3.7%.

Implied volatility in Valero Energy (VLO) has risen 1.8% from January 2, 2018, to the current level of 23.5%.

In 1Q18, VLO’s 50-day moving average remained above its 200-day moving average.

Valero stock could close between $98.1 and $91.3 per share in the eight-day post-earnings period.

The correlation coefficient of Phillips 66 versus WTI stood at 25.0% in the past one-year period.

Valero Energy (VLO) is the second-highest dividend-yielding stock among the seven refining stocks we’re comparing in this series.

Andeavor’s PEG ratio stands at 0.41, above the peer average of 0.36.

In the week starting November 20, 2017, Delek US Holdings (DK) was leading the list of gainers in the refining and marketing group.

Valero’s stock performance Since October 2, 2017, the start of 4Q17, Valero Energy (VLO) stock has risen 5.6%, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the overall market indicator. The ETF has risen 2.1% in the same period. VLO peer Delek US Holdings (DK) has risen 4.5% since October 2, and HollyFrontier (HFC) and PBF […]

Analysts’ ratings for Valero Previously, we looked at analysts’ expectations for Valero Energy’s (VLO) dividend payment next quarter. In this part, we’ll look at analysts’ ratings for Valero. As shown in the chart above, nine (or 43%) of the 21 analysts covering VLO have rated it a “buy.” The remaining 12 analysts have rated Valero a “hold,” and […]

After the earnings release, 19 analysts have rated Marathon Petroleum. Fifteen of them have assigned it a “buy” or “strong buy,” and four have assigned it a “hold.”

Since July 3, 2017, Phillips 66 stock has risen 13.3%. By comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has risen 5.3%.