In November 2017, housing units (XHB) authorized by building permits were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.298 million—a decrease of 1.4% from October.
Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, warned about the jobless rate being below the natural full employment estimate of 4.7%.
The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures homebuilder sentiment, peaked at 71 during the height of the housing bubble in late 2005. It bottomed out at 8 in early 2009.
Fannie Mae’s monthly National Housing Survey asked respondents if it’s a good time to buy and sell a house. They’re more confident that it’s a good time to sell.
For 2Q16, KB Home reported revenues of $811 million, which easily topped the Wall Street estimate consensus of $750 million. Revenues increased by 30% YoY.
The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index measures homebuilder sentiment has been increasing steadily since 2009. Recently, it’s started to accelerate.
Historically, the use of public construction dollars has been the big lever that the government uses to stimulate the economy. This dates back to the New Deal.
D.R. Horton reported 2Q16 revenue of $2.7 billion—a 16% increase on a YoY basis and a sequential increase of ~14%. The revenue beat analysts’ expectations.
Over time, Pulte has lifted its gross margins and improved revenues. However, the stock has still lagged its peers, especially the S&P SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB).
Employment and wages are key indicators for the Fed Aside from employment, the most important indicator of economic well-being is wages. Despite falling unemployment, one of the conundrums facing the current labor market is flat real or inflation-adjusted wages. Over the past decade, wages have more or less kept pace with inflation, but they haven’t increased. Before the financial crisis, much of […]
There was a big fall in household formation in 2008. In 2005, household formation peaked at 1.9 million. By 2008, that number was just over 400 million.
US Treasury yields rose across the yield curve after upbeat consumer inflation data suggested that the Fed may hike interest rates earlier than expected.
Foreclosure completions fell by 1,000 units to 32,000 in December. Completions fell 23% year-over-year. However, 33,000 is still a relatively high number.
Treasury yields fell across the yield curve, except for three-month, six-month, and one-year Treasury bills, after the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate.
PulteGroup’s (PHM) gross margins for 4Q15 came in at 23.5%, up 40 basis points on a year-over-year basis and down ten basis points from the third quarter.
D.R. Horton (DHI) sounded relatively optimistic on its conference call. It was clearly happy with the most recent quarter despite the stock price reaction.
Zoning protects existing property values by preventing incompatible uses of a property. It also protects residential properties from commercial development.
Zoning is the way that governments supervise land development and the kinds of uses each individual property may be directed toward for the public interest.
Housing affordability took a beating in July 2015 after reaching its high in January 2013. The higher ratio of the home affordability index signifies relatively higher home affordability to buyers.
A home is usually the most expensive asset that consumers can hold, and owning a home is among their lifetime goals. The question arises—why can’t more people own a house despite the availability of so many properties in the market?
The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index measures builder confidence, gauging how builders view current and future sales of single-family residences. It asks builders to characterize sales as good, fair, or poor.
The US Treasury yield curve was flat for the week ended December 18, 2015, as short-term yields fell. Medium- to long-term yields rose after US interest rates rose by 25 basis points.
According to the National Association of Home Builders (or NAHB), the housing market index fell by a single point to reach a level of 61.0 in December.
The US Dollar index was trading in a narrow range on November 18, 2015. The slight movements down were mainly due to housing data coming out on a mixed note and the FOMC minutes.
This week, REITs such as Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC) will focus almost exclusively on the jobs report and NLY’s earnings.
Housing starts rose from a downward-revised ~1.13 million to ~1.21 million in September 2015. This was above Wall Street estimates of just over 1.14 million.
The US dollar index was trading flat for the day on October 20, 2015. The day saw the housing starts come out above forecasts, and September’s building permits came out below expectations.
According to the National Association of Home Builders (or NAHB), the housing market index (or HMI) rose to 64 in October as compared to 61 in September 2015.
A week after the implementation of a regulatory change, mortgage applications fell 27.6% for the week ending October 9 as against an increase of 25.5% in the previous week.
In September, non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000, missing the Wall Street estimate of 200,000. Private payrolls increased by 118,000, while government jobs rose by 24,000.
Housing starts fell from a downward-revised ~1.16 million to ~1.13 million in August 2015. This was below Wall Street estimates of just over 1.16 million.
Lennar outperformed its peers based on the net profit margin, EPS, and PBV ratio. The ETFs outperformed Lennar based on the PE ratio and the PBV ratio.
Historically, construction spending has led economies out of recessions. This didn’t happen in the most recent recession, however, because of the overhang from the real estate bubble.
Defining ROIC Return on invested capital (or ROIC), which is a profitability ratio, measures the return that an investment generates over total invested capital, including debt. ROIC is a better measure of efficiency than ROE (return on equity) because it removes the debt-related distortion that can make highly leveraged companies look very profitable when using ROE. […]
The sales price of units closed or delivered during 2014 was $725,000, up by 13.5% from 2013. This is the highest sales price increase Toll Brothers has witnessed in the past three years.
Toll Brothers’ use of land option agreements reduces financial risks associated with long-term land holdings. The land acquisition strategy of other homebuilders also involves option contracts.
Toll Brothers (TOL) has a very geographically diverse homebuilding operation in the United States. The company has a presence in 50 markets, spanning 19 states as well as the District of Columbia.
Although the majority of Toll Brothers’ (TOL) business is focused on move-up homes, the company also offers second-home, empty-nester, and active-adult product lines to its home buyers in the United States.
Toll Brothers is primarily engaged in the development of attached and detached homes in luxury residential communities. It’s a dominant player in the luxury segment with very few comparable competitors.
August payrolls in the private sector increased by 140,000, while government jobs rose by 33,000. Private services payrolls increased by 164,000 and manufacturing employment fell by 17,000.
Toll Brothers has exposure to some of the hottest markets, while avoiding some of the more downbeat markets like the most of the Midwest and parts of the Deep South.
Toll Brothers reported that the average selling price for 3Q15 was $724,000, a 1.5% increase on a quarter-over-quarter basis and a 1% decrease on a year-over-year basis.
Real estate stocks like DR Horton (DHI), PulteGroup (PHM), and Ventas (VTR) rose 1.74%, 0.55%, and 0.42%, respectively, at the close of trade on August 19.
The housing market index (or HMI), released monthly by the National Association of Home Builders (or NAHB) in association with Wells Fargo (WFC), is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes.
Housing starts and building permits figures for July, released by the United States Census Bureau, were highly anticipated by investors in the US real estate sector.
Sales order backlog represents homes under contract but not closed or delivered. For orders in backlog, the company receives a customer contract and deposit, which may or may not be refundable.
