Nicholas Chapman

Currently, ~81% of Wall Street analysts rate Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) as a “buy” and ~14% of analysts rate it as a “hold.” Around 5% rate the stock a “sell.”

On July 10, 2017, ~71% of the 24 analysts covering ConocoPhillips (COP) had “strong buy” or “buy” ratings on its stock.

World Fuel Services (INT) increased from last week’s close of $21.80 to $22.35 on June 14—an increase of more than 2.5%.

Wall Street analysts expect California Resources (CRC) to report a year-over-year fall of ~32% in its operating cash flow.

ConocoPhillips’s 1Q17 crude oil realized prices In 1Q17, excluding the effect of hedges, ConocoPhillips’s average realized crude oil price in the Lower 48 region was $45.89 per barrel, up ~70% from its price of $27.04 per barrel in 1Q16. Sequentially, ConocoPhillips’s 1Q17 price is ~4% higher than it was in 4Q16. Crude oil prices versus […]

For the second quarter, EOG Resources expects total production in the range of 670.3–706.2 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day).

Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) is set to report its 3Q17 earnings on November 1, 2017, after the market closes.

For 1Q16, Denbury Resources (DNR) reported an adjusted EBITDA of ~$105 million with an EBITDA margin of ~40%. Its EBITDA margin is only ~20% lower.

For 1Q18, ConocoPhillips (COP) reported revenues of ~$9.0 billion—higher than analysts’ consensus of ~$8.8 billion.

Along with its 4Q15 earnings, Murphy Oil announced the divestiture of its Montney midstream assets located in Canada. The transaction includes the sale of existing infrastructure capable of processing up to 320 million cubic feet per day.

For fiscal 2017, QEP Resources reported a negative FCF of -$1.4 billion, which is much higher than its negative FCF of -$544 million in 2016.

For 3Q16, Range Resources reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.06—$0.09 better than the Wall Street analyst consensus estimate of $0.15 loss per share.

ConocoPhillips’s (COP) Barnett assets have a relatively small contribution to its overall production. In 2016, COP’s Barnett assets produced only 11 MBoepd.

In the last month, crude oil producer Denbury Resources (DNR) has seen its stock price underperform crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices.

Looking back, 2015 was a brutal year for all of the commodities. Energy commodities weren’t an exception. Crude oil (USO) fell by ~30% in 2015.

As of August 2, 2017, Devon Energy (DVN) had an implied volatility of ~40.7%, which is lower than its implied volatility of ~33.6% on July 25, 2017.

Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) stock price fell ~2.7% for the week ending January 26, 2018. Natural gas (UGAZ) (DGAZ) (UNG) prices increased ~10.0%.

Suncor Energy (SU) is the only losing stock in the current week from the integrated energy sector. It fell from last week’s close of $34.67 to $34.52 on October 11, 2017.

Devon Energy (DVN) has a forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) ratio of ~13x.

Southwestern Energy (SWN) is set to report its 3Q17 earnings on October 26, 2017, after the market closes. For 3Q17, the current consensus net income estimate for SWN is ~$78 million.

On December 21, 2016, California Resources’ total shares shorted, also known as its short interest, stood at ~13.7 million.

Since March 2016, natural gas prices have risen ~83%, but Southwestern Energy’s stock price has risen only ~48% since its February 2016 low.

Stocks that are leading the rise in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund this week include Chesapeake Energy, Andeavor, and FMC Technologies.

In 4Q15, Range Resources was trading at higher price-to-book and price-to-sales multiples than peers.

The median target price on CNX Resources stock is $20.50, which is ~21% higher than its July 26 closing price of $17.01.

In 4Q17, 25 hedge funds were buyers of Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock, and 42 hedge funds were sellers.

For 2Q17, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) reported operating cash flow of ~$144 million, which is ~3% lower than Wall Street analysts’ expectation for ~$149 million in cash flows.

According to Range Resources’ presentation on its merger with Memorial Resource Development, it’s expecting an ~108% boost to its 2016 estimated cash flow.

In the week ending September 8, 2017, Flotek Industries (FTK) led the losing stocks from the oilfield services sector.

On November 7, 2016, Denbury Resources (DNR) had an implied volatility of ~82.2%, ~39.2% lower than its 260-day historical price volatility of ~135.2%.

For 3Q16, Occidental Petroleum expects its total production from ongoing operations to be in the range of 600–605 Mboe per day.

ConocoPhillips (COP) announced its 4Q17 earnings on February 1, 2018, before the market opened. It had better-than-expected profits of ~$540 million, beating analyst expectations.

For 2Q17, analysts expect Southwestern Energy to report revenues of ~$814 million. On a YoY basis, its 2Q17 revenue expectations are ~56% higher.

The price of natural gas (UNG) rose ~5% last week. It rose from $2.92 per mmBtu (million British thermal units) to $3.07 per mmBtu. ConocoPhillips’s production volume mix contains ~40% natural gas.

Devon Energy (DVN) is set to report its 2Q17 earnings on August 1, 2017, after the market closes. The current consensus net income estimate for 2Q17 is $169.0 million.

In 1Q18, Encana reported adjusted revenues of ~$1.31 billion—better than analysts’ consensus of ~$1.22 billion.

Denbury reported a better-than-expected loss of ~$6.5 million, as analysts were expecting an even bigger loss of ~$11.4 million.

As of May 2, 40 analysts have given recommendations on SWN, including five “strong buys,” five “buys,” 27 “holds,” two “sells,” and one “strong sell.”

As of November 15, 2017, Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) short interest stood at ~41.70 million, while its average daily volume is ~6.13 million.

Energy stocks are rising this week. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has risen 1.2% from June 18–20.

On May 18, 2017, Devon Energy (DVN) had an implied volatility of ~33.9, which is ~14.9% below its 260-trading day historical price volatility of ~39.9%.

Currently, ~50% of Wall Street analysts rate Cenovus Energy (CVE) a “strong buy” or “buy,” and ~43% rate it a “hold.”

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is set to report its 4Q17 and fiscal 2017 earnings on February 13, 2018. For 4Q17, OXY’s current consensus net income estimate is ~$275.0 million.

For 2Q16, California Resources’ (CRC) total operating revenue (excluding derivative losses) was ~$435 million or ~44% lower than 2Q15.

Diamondback Energy’s stock price saw uptrend from October 2012 to June 2014. When NYMEX WTI crude oil started falling in June 2014, FANG’s stock peaked.

As of September 8, 2017, ~44.5% of the analysts covering Marathon Oil (MRO) have “strong buy” or “buy” recommendations on the stock.

On September 30, 2016, Stone Energy’s (SGY) total debt stood at ~$1.4 billion. With only ~$182 million in cash and cash equivalents, SGY’s net debt was ~$1.3 billion at the end of 3Q16.

Crude oil (USO) prices rose from last week’s close of $68.58 per barrel to $70.53 per barrel on June 26—an increase of ~3%.

Last week (ended June 2, 2017), crude oil prices continued their weekly declining trend, falling from $49.80 per barrel to $47.66 per barrel.

As of November 2, 2017, around 71.9% of analysts covering Devon Energy (DVN) have “strong buy” or “buy” recommendations on the stock.

Devon Energy announced its 1Q16 earnings on May 3, 2016, after the market closed. On the day, DVN’s stock price fell by 5.2% to close at $32.75.

Marathon Oil’s stock price fell from $15.91 to $15.16 last week, while crude oil prices fell from $53.18 per barrel to $49.62 per barrel.

In 9M17, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) reported revenues of ~$1.4 billion, which is ~63.0% higher than its 9M16 revenues of ~$839.0 million.

For 2Q17, Denbury Resources’ continuing production averaged 59.8 Mboepd, which is ~5% lower than its 2Q16 continuing production of ~63.0 Mboepd.

In this part of our series, we’ll look at the top-percentage gainers from the US refining and marketing sector this week.

For 2Q17, W&T Offshore (WTI) reported total production of ~3.9 MMboe, which was slightly above the mid-point of its production guidance range of 3.7 MMboe–4.1 MMboe.

For the past month, Energen had the highest correlation of ~0.94 with WTI crude oil (USO) prices. Occidental Petroleum had the lowest correction coefficient.

In 1Q16, natural gas hedging activities increased Range Resources’ (RRC) average realized natural gas price by $0.91 per Mcf (thousand cubic feet).

For 9M17 (the first nine months of 2017), WPX Energy (WPX) had normalized free cash flows (or FCF) of about -275%, the fifth lowest among the crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) producers we have been tracking.

In this series, we’ll analyze Range Resources’ 2Q16 earnings and revenue and look at its cash flow, operational performance, analyst ratings, and price forecasts.

Encana (ECA) has not given any specific production guidance for 1Q18.

In the week starting on March 19, 2018, CARBO Ceramics (CRR) was the top gainer from the oilfield services group.

In 1Q17, Marathon Oil (MRO) reported operating netback of ~$22.2 per boe (barrel of oil equivalent), which is ~135% higher than in 1Q16.

Offshore oil and gas producer Cobalt International Energy (CIE) just saw its stock price underperform crude oil prices by a wide margin.

In 3Q15, Occidental Petroleum production mix was 63% crude oil, 25% natural gas, and 12% NGLs. This means that it is more tilted toward liquids production.

Since November 9, 2016, SWN stock hasn’t been keeping up with the strong rise in natural gas prices. The stock has risen marginally from $9.78 to $10.10 per share.

Range Resources (RRC) announced its 1Q18 earnings on April 25, after the market closed.

For the week ending November 17, 2017, Marathon Oil’s (MRO) stock price fell 3.34% or from $15.62 to $15.05.

As of March 28, 2016, about 55% of Wall Street analysts rated Range Resources (RRC) as a “buy” and ~40% of analysts rated it as a “hold.”

For 4Q16, Wall Street analysts expect Murphy Oil to report EBITDA of ~$261 million—compared to adjusted EBITDA of approximately -$122 million in 4Q15.

For 3Q17, Southwestern Energy (SWN) reported revenues of ~$737 million—higher than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$777 million.

As of May 27, 2016, about 50% of Wall Street analysts have rated Range Resources (RRC) as a “buy,” and ~47% of analysts have rated it as a “hold.”

Southwestern Energy (SWN) will report its 2Q17 earnings on August 3, 2017, after the market closes. It’s expected to report the fourth consecutive profit.

In 2Q16, Stone Energy’s (SGY) reported operating netback of ~$23.64 per boe (barrel of oil equivalent), which is higher by ~4% than in 2Q15.

In 1Q17, Denbury Resources (DNR) reported revenue of ~$275 million, ~11% higher than Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate of ~$248 million.

Year-to-date, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) has been the fifth-weakest energy stock from the US oil and gas production sector.

For fiscal 2016, Denbury Resources (DNR) plans to spend ~$200 million in capital expenditure, which is ~51% lower when compared with fiscal 2015 capital expenditure of ~$407 million.

In 1Q16, Pioneer Natural Resources’ (PXD) reported an operating netback of ~$22.15 per boe (barrel of oil equivalent), which is ~4% lower than in 1Q15.

Although crude oil prices have rallied by ~89% from their lows in February 2016, crude is still trading ~54% lower than its high nearly two years ago.

Last week (ended May 26), crude oil prices fell from $50.67 per barrel to $49.80 per barrel.

Marathon Oil (MRO) announced its 4Q17 earnings on February 14 after the market closed.

The median target price on Marathon Oil stock is $23.50, which is ~14% higher than its July 19 closing price of $20.54.

In the last four quarters, Marathon Oil beat the consensus EPS estimate 75% of the time and met the consensus EPS estimate 25% of the time.

For 2Q17, California Resources (CRC) reported total production of 129 Mboepd, which is below the midpoint production guidance of 128 Mboepd to 133 Mboepd.

For 3Q17, Wall Street analysts expect Devon Energy (DVN) to report revenues of ~$3.17 billion. On a year-over-year basis, DVN’s 3Q17 revenues expectations are ~10% higher compared with 3Q16 revenues of ~$2.88 billion.

Currently, ~72% of Wall Street analysts rate ConocoPhillips (COP) a “buy,” and ~28% rate it a “hold.”

Currently, ~10.0% of Wall Street analysts rate Southwestern Energy (SWN) a “strong buy,” 10.0% rate it a “buy,” and 65.0% rate it a “hold.”

So far in 2016, Consol Energy (CNX) has been outperforming bigger upstream companies in the S&P 500 (SPY). CNX has risen by ~64%.

In the last two months, Range Resources’ stock price has increased by ~68%.

In 1Q17, the stock of Appalachian natural gas (UNG) producer Southwestern Energy (SWN) underperformed natural gas, falling from $10.82 to $8.17.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) paid its most recent dividend for 4Q16 on January 13, 2017—$0.76 per share on its common stock.

After losing ~78% of its market capitalization from July 2014 to January 2016, Murphy Oil’s (MUR) stock price is finally showing signs of new uptrend.

Encana (ECA) is set to report its 1Q17 earnings on May 1, 2017, after the market closes. This series will look at what we can expect from Encana.

Encana (ECA) announced its 3Q17 earnings on November 8, 2017, before the market opened. It reported worse-than-expected profits of ~$24 million.

SM Energy (SM) announced its 1Q16 earnings on May 3, 2016, after the Market closed. On the day of its earnings release, SM Energy’s stock price fell by 3.68% to close at $29.06 per share.

For 2Q17, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) reported revenues of ~$14.0 million, which was lower than Wall Street analysts’ consensus of ~$34.0 million.

California Resources (CRC) is expected to report its Q2 2018 results on August 2, after the market closes.

Excluding hedges, Marathon Oil (MRO) reported a positive cash margin and a negative total margin in 4Q16.

As of September 30, 2017, Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) total debt was ~$9.8 billion. With ~$1.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, its net debt is ~$8 billion at the end of 3Q17.

Marathon Oil (MRO) is set to report its Q2 earnings on August 1. Excluding one-time items, the net income estimate is ~$161 million.