Will Crude Oil Prices Hit a 3-Year High?



Energy calendar 

The API (American Petroleum Institute) will publish its crude oil inventory report on December 27, 2017. The EIA will release its crude oil inventory report on December 28, 2017. Baker Hughes will release its US oil rig report on December 29, 2017.

All of these events could impact oil (DWT) prices. WTI oil (UWT) prices rose 2% last week due to bullish drivers. We discussed the drivers in Part 1 of this series. Higher oil (UCO) prices are bullish for energy producers (IEZ) (XOP) like Contango Oil & Gas (MCF), Goodrich Petroleum (GDP), and W&T Offshore (WTI).

Bullish drivers for US crude oil futures

US crude oil (USL) futures tested $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017—the highest level since June 2015. Prices rose due to the production cut extension, lower global and US oil inventories, and the crude oil supply outage in Nigeria, LibyaVenezuela, and Iraq.

A massive fall in US oil inventories could push oil (SCO) prices above the previous highs tested on November 24, 2017. An unplanned supply outage could also push oil prices higher. Higher compliance with production cuts could support oil prices.

Bearish drivers for US crude oil prices 

US active crude oil (DBO) futures tested $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2017—the lowest level in more than a decade. Any rise in US crude oil output and a strong dollar (UUP) could limit the upside for oil (UCO) prices.

Crude Oil Volatility Index  

The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) rose 7.8% to 19.3 on December 22, 2017. However, it’s near a three-year low. The volatility index suggests less volatility in oil (USL) prices.

February US crude oil futures contracts were above their 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages on December 22, 2017. It suggests that prices could trend higher.

Read Will US Natural Gas Futures End 2017 on a Low Note? and Factors Could Change the Trend in Crude Oil Prices for the latest updates on natural gas and oil.

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