ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil

October WTI (or West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (USO) (UCO) futures contracts rose 0.4% and were trading at $47.73 per barrel in electronic trade at 2:00 AM EST on August 22, 2017.

When the crude oil futures forward curve to slopes downwards, the situation in the crude oil futures market is called “backwardation.”

The rise in crude oil export capacity suggests that Iran’s getting ready for a massive increase in crude oil production in 2018.

A Reuters survey estimates that Libya’s crude oil production fell by ~20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 670,000 bpd in February 2017—compared to January 2017.

WTI crude oil (USO) futures hit $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017—the highest level in nearly three years.

An unexpected increase in US oil inventories pressured WTI oil (USO) (UCO) prices in post-settlement trade on November 28, 2017.

US distillate inventories rose for the fourth time in the last five weeks. They rose ~3% in the last five weeks, which is bearish for diesel and oil prices.

On May 16, 2017, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories rose by 0.8 MMbbls (million barrels) on May 5–12, 2017.

August US crude oil futures contracts rose 0.4% and closed at $44.4 per barrel on July 10. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $46.8 per barrel.

The energy sector contributed to ~6.3% of the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) on April 28, 2017. Oil and gas are major parts of the energy sector.

US crude oil production  According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), US crude oil production rose 13,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,658,000 bpd between November 10 and 17, 2017. Production, which rose for the fifth straight week, has been pressuring oil (SCO) prices in the last few weeks. Production has risen 977,000 bpd (11.3%) year-over-year. Any […]

China’s General Administration of Customs reported that China’s crude oil imports rose to 9.21 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in March 2017.

A less-than-expected rise in gasoline inventories supported gasoline prices on May 3, 2017. Gasoline and crude oil (DIG) (SCO) (VDE) prices rose on May 3.

US distillate inventories rose by 0.64 MMbbls (million barrels) to 139.8 MMbbls on January 12–19, 2018, according to the EIA.

June WTI crude oil futures contracts fell 0.40% and were trading at $48.68 per barrel in electronic trade at 2:35 AM EST on May 2, 2017.

The CFTC’s COT report states that hedge funds reduced their long positions for the week ending January 12, 2016. The net long positions fell by 20,673 contracts to 163,504 contracts during the week.

June WTI crude oil futures showed the neutral doji pattern on May 9. Oil prices are swinging due to the frequent change in supply and demand dynamics.

A Reuters survey estimated that Brent and US crude oil prices could average $58.84 per barrel and $54.78 per barrel in 2018.

Libya is an OPEC member but was exempt from the production cut deal due to political and economic instability.

Libya’s crude oil production   On December 20, 2016, Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that pipelines leading from the Sharara and El Feel fields were reopened. The pipelines were closed for two years due to militant attacks. The pipelines are expected to add 270,000 bpd (barrels per day) of crude oil supply over the next three months. The […]

Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options by 1,136 contracts to 133,606 contracts on June 20–27, 2017.

Market surveys estimate that Cushing crude oil inventories rose from March 3–10. A rise in crude oil inventories could pressure US crude oil prices.

The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 MMbbls (million barrels) to 509.9 MMbbls on May 19–26, 2017.

A Bloomberg survey estimates that the crude oil inventories at Cushing could have declined by 2.3 MMbbls (million barrels) on January 12–19, 2018.

The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 MMbbls to 483.4 MMbbls on July 14–21, 2017. Inventories fell below the five-year range.

February 2017 NY Harbor ULSD futures fell and settled at $1.66 per gallon on December 21. Diesel futures fell despite the fall in distillate inventories.

The EIA estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand rose by 210,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,312,000 bpd from March 17–24, 2017.

WTI crude oil (SCO) futures settled at $64.30 per barrel on January 12, 2018—the highest level since December 2014.

US distillate inventories fell by 3.8 MMbbls or 2.7% to 139.2 MMbbls on January 5–12, 2018. The inventories fell by 29.9 MMbbls or 18% from a year ago.

The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its weekly crude oil and gasoline inventory report on September 20, 2017.

November US crude oil (UWT) (SCO) (DBO) futures contracts rose 1.6% and closed at $49.3 per barrel on September 20, 2017.

A Bloomberg survey estimated that the crude oil inventories at Cushing could have fallen by 1.5 MMbbls between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018.

A Reuters poll estimated that WTI crude oil (USL) prices could average $54.78 per barrel in 2018 after extending the production cuts.

Baker Hughes is scheduled to release its US crude oil and natural gas rig count report on November 11, 2017.

US crude oil (RYE) (VDE) (SCO) futures contracts for August delivery fell 2.8% and settled at $44.23 per barrel on July 7. Prices are near a ten-month low.

The EIA estimates that OPEC’s spare crude oil production capacity rose 35,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 2 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in August 2017.

February WTI crude oil futures contracts fell 0.9% to $63.73 per barrel on January 16. Brent oil futures fell 1.6% to $69.15 per barrel on the same day.

According to the EIA, US crude oil production increased by 28,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,782,000 bpd on December 22–29, 2017.

US crude oil production fell by 290,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 3% to 9,492,000 bpd between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018.

Analysts expect that Cushing crude oil inventories could have declined on January 5–12, 2018. A fall in Cushing inventories is bullish for oil prices.

On January 16, 2018, Goldman Sachs said that crude oil prices could exceed its forecast in the coming months.

ConocoPhillips’s stock performance As we saw in the previous part of this series, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) stock price rose ~2% in the week ended March 9, while crude oil (UWT) (SCO) (DWT) rose ~1%, suggesting that COP stock followed crude oil. In this part, we’ll try to quantify this correlation between COP stock and crude oil. ConocoPhillips’s stock […]

In this series, we’ll look at the best-performing and worst-performing stocks of the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and analyze the earnings and developments behind the movements.

The EIA estimates that global crude oil inventories could rise in 2018 and 2019, which is bearish for oil prices.

The EIA forecast that Brent (BNO) crude oil would average $59.74 per barrel in 2018—4.3% higher than the previous estimates in December 2017.

Baker Hughes released its US crude oil rig count report on December 29. It reported that US crude oil rigs were flat at 747 on December 22–29, 2017.

The US Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 92.12 on December 29, 2017—the fourth consecutive day of losses. It’s near a three-month low.

Cushing inventories rose by 754,000 barrels or 1.4% to 52.9 MMbbls (million barrels) on December 8–15, 2017, according to the EIA.

The EIA estimates that Libya’s crude oil production rose by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 2.1% to 980,000 bpd in November 2017.

The EIA estimates that four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 21,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9.1 MMbpd on December 1–8, 2017.