How Natural Gas Prices Are Moving
Natural gas prices are critical for nitrogen and ammonia-based phosphate fertilizer producers.
Is This Why CF’s Stock Has Rallied?
Like CF Industries’ (CF) sales, its margins are also expected to expand YoY (year-over-year) in Q2 2018 and the next four quarters.
MAP Fertilizer Prices Hit a New High in Brazil
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil continued their uptrend, while prices in NOLA (New Orleans) moved sideways.
Key Takeaways from CF Industries’ Strong Second-Quarter Results
CF Industries reported second-quarter sales of $1.3 billion, which beat analysts’ estimate of $1.2 billion.
How the Fertilizer Affordability Index Trended Last Week
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index was unchanged week-over-week at 0.7x.
April Update for Fertilizer Stocks: Ratings and Price Targets
Fertilizer stocks have failed to impress investors in 2018. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) has returned ~1.4% year-to-date.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved in Week Ending February 16
CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer among fertilizer stocks with a 6.7% rise last week to close at $3.18 per share.
MAP Prices Inch Higher for the Week Ended February 23
Last week, MAP prices in both the locations rose on a weekly basis.
How Producers’ Potash Segments Trended in 4Q17
Due to the increase in potash prices this year, the overall potash segment margins for five companies discussed below expanded as much as 9% to 29% from 20% on average.
Fertilizer Affordability Pressure Eased Last Week
While the Fertilizer Affordability Index was below one, it’s still higher compared to the average levels observed since January 2016.
How Nitrogen Shipments of These Fertilizer Companies Trended
In 4Q17, the overall nitrogen shipments of the five companies discussed below moved lower year-over-year.
Fertilizer Affordability Update for the Week Ending January 26
Last week, the fertilizer affordability showed some positive momentum week-over-week.
Analysts’ Ratings for Major Agribusiness Stocks: February Update
So far this year, some major agribusiness stocks, particularly in the fertilizer sector, have performed poorly.
More Tariffs on China, Fertilizer Stocks Are in the Red
China is one of the largest fertilizer consumers in the world. Investors are concerned that retaliatory measures might hurt fertilizer companies.
Fertilizer Prices and Stocks Are on Pause: What’s Going On?
Last week, which ended September 7, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 1.8%, while the S&P 500 Index fell 1%.
CF Industries Pops on Price Upgrade from RBC
Today, RBC upgraded CF Industries (CF) from its “underperform” rating to “sector perform.”
Why CVR Partners Missed Analyst Estimates in Second Quarter
CVR Partners missed both top-line and bottom-line estimates for the second quarter, and the stock fell 4.5% after the earnings release.
Fertilizer Affordability Remains Stable amid Strengthening Prices
Fertilizer affordability has seen some tightening in the last couple of months.
Are Fertilizers Getting Less Affordable?
In the week ended February 23, the Fertilizer Affordability Index rose to 0.71x from 0.7x a week ago.
What Analysts Recommend for These Four Fertilizer Stocks
Nutrien (NTR) has a consensus recommendation of “buy.”
Which Analysts Are Bullish on Nutrien in January 2018?
At the end of 2017, after receiving final regulatory approval for the merger, PotashCorp and Agrium combined into a new company called Nutrien (NTR).
How Nitrogen Margins for Fertilizer Companies Trended in 4Q17
In the recent quarters, fertilizer companies (MOO) have rationalized their output and costs to sustain the downward momentum in fertilizer prices that seemed to keep going down.
Fertilizer Affordability Still Largely Unchanged Last Week
Last week, which ended October 12, fertilizer affordability was unchanged week-over-week.
Are Fertilizers Becoming Less Affordable?
Fertilizer affordability affects sales volume for fertilizer companies (NANR) such as Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR), CF Industries (CF), and Intrepid Potash (IPI).
Analyzing Diammonium Phosphate Prices Last Week
Last week, DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to positive WoW (week-over-week) and much higher YoY (year-over-year).
A Review of Fertilizer Prices Last Week
In this series, we’ll look at key NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizer prices last week.
Analyzing Potash Prices in the Week Ending January 12
In Brazil, potash prices were flat at $281 per metric ton in the week ending January 12.
Fertilizer Affordability Improved Due to Higher Crop Prices
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index, which is issued by Mosaic, declined to 0.83x from 0.85x a week ago.
Potash Prices Were Flat to Positive Last Week
In the Cornbelt region of the US, the potash prices rose by 31 basis points to $289 per metric ton from $288 per metric ton.
Natural Gas Prices Were Favorable for Nitrogen Producers
For the week ending November 2, the natural gas prices at Henry Hub declined to $3.29 per MMBtu from $3.36 per MMBtu.
Urea Prices Continued to Fall Last Week
In the week ending November 2, urea prices continued to drop—a continuation of the trend we observed in the past few weeks.
Fertilizer Prices for the Week Ending November 2
The week ending November 2 was broadly positive for the agribusiness sector. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) rose ~4.5%.
CF Industries Reported Strong Third-Quarter Earnings
On October 31, CF Industries (CF) reported its third-quarter earnings. The company reported revenue growth of 19.5% YoY to $1.04 billion.
Natural Gas Prices Rose Yet Again Last Week
Natural gas prices for the week ending October 26 increased week-over-week at most locations in the US.
How Urea Prices Performed Last Week
In the week ending October 26, overall urea prices were broadly negative.
How Fertilizer Stocks and Prices Moved Last Week
Last week, the overall agribusiness sector was broadly negative. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell ~4.9%.
Nitrogen Input: Natural Gas Prices Fell at Henry Hub
In the week ending October 19, natural gas prices trended lower after experiencing a spike in the week ending October 12 at Henry Hub.
Fertilizer Stocks and Prices for the Week Ending October 19
Last week, Intrepid Potash rose 5.9% to $3.6. Nutrien (NTR) gained 3.3% to $55.8, while Israel Chemicals (ICL) gained 1.6% to $6.2 per share.
Potash Prices Recorded Strong Gains Last Week
Potash prices in Brazil rose the most last week with a rise of 2.3% to $357 per metric ton from $349 per metric ton.
CF Industries: UBS Raised the Target Price
On October 2, CF Industries (CF) received a target price upgrade from UBS. The stock gained ~1.8% and rose to $55.8 during the day.
Fertilizer Stocks and Prices in the Week Ending September 21
The week ending September 21 was broadly positive for the fertilizer sector. MOO rose 2.3% from the week ending September 14.
US Potash Prices Were Flat Last Week
Last week, potash prices didn’t show movement in NOLA (New Orleans) or the Cornbelt region of the US.
Are DAP Prices Outside the US Reversing?
DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been rising lately.
Natural Gas Price Update for Nitrogen Investors
Low natural gas prices in the US have been highly beneficial for North American fertilizer companies (XLB) including CF Industries (CF), CVR Partners (UAN), Nutrien (NTR), and Mosaic (MOS).
Natural Gas Price Update for Nitrogen Fertilizer Stocks
We track natural gas prices since they can have a significant impact on the prices of nitrogen fertilizers companies.
Natural Gas Prices Fell Last Week, Benefiting Nitrogen Producers
We’re looking at natural gas prices in this series, primarily because they make up two-thirds of the input costs for nitrogen-based fertilizers.
Fertilizer Stocks and Commodity Prices for Week Ended August 31
Last week, the overall fertilizer sector was broadly positive with six of the six stocks ending in flat to positive territory.
ICL, MOS, CF, NTR: A Look at Valuation Multiples
The median forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of the four fertilizer companies stood at 9.7x as of August 27.
How Forward PE Multiples of These Four Fertilizer Stocks Stack Up
Mosaic (MOS) was trading at a forward PE of 15.8x, a discount compared to the peer average of 17.5x.
Why EBITDA Margins Matter to Fertilizer Stocks
Mosaic (MOS) is expected to see its gross margins expand to 21% in fiscal 2019 from 13% in fiscal 2018.
Fertilizer Continued to Rise in Week Ended August 24
Last week was broadly positive for the fertilizer sector, with the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) ending 1.3% higher.
How Higher Energy Costs outside the US Benefited CF Industries
In Europe, the cost of natural gas rose by 53% year-over-year as of June 2018.
Analyzing the Global Cost Curve of Nitrogen
It’s important for CF Industries (CF) investors to understand what’s behind increasing fertilizer prices.
How CF Industries Fared in the Second Quarter
CF Industries reported sales growth of 16% year-over-year in the second quarter due to the increase in realized fertilizer prices across its five segments.
How Fertilizer Affordability Changed in Week Ended August 10
Fertilizer affordability last week, which ended on August 10, was largely unchanged, as reported by Mosaic (MOS).
MAP Prices Mirror DAP Price Movements Last Week
For the week ended August 10, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices remained firm, mirroring DAP (diammonium phosphate) price movements.
Nutrien Pops on Second-Quarter Earnings
Nutrien (NTR) reported its second-quarter earnings on August 1 after the market closed.
How Natural Gas Prices Moved Last Week
Between July 11 and July 18, natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub fell about 4.2% to $2.72 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
What to Expect from Intrepid Potash’s Second-Quarter Earnings
Intrepid Potash (IPI) is set to release its second quarter 2018 earnings on August 1. Analysts are estimating EPS of $0.04.
Nutrien’s Retail Business and Agrible’s Technology Platform
Agrible’s technology gives a digital dimension to farming activity by driving efficiency in decision-making.
DAP Prices Continue Their Significant Rise
Last week, DAP prices in Tampa rose the most, rising 1.7% week-over-week to $427 per metric ton, from $420 per metric ton.
Potash Prices Stay High
In recent weeks, potash prices have been rising and hitting YTD (year-to-date) highs.
Monoammonium Phosphate Prices Reverse in New Orleans
Like DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were mixed last week.
Potash Prices Rose in Week Ended June 29
Last week, potash prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the United States rose 1.6% week-over-week to $235 per metric ton.
Urea Prices Rose in Week Ended June 29
Last week, urea prices continued to be positive for companies (XLB) such as CF Industries (CF), Nutrien (NTR) (POT), and CVR Partners (UAN).
Fertilizers Got Stronger the Week Ended June 29
The upward trend for fertilizer continued last week, with CVR Partners (UAN) rising 9.6% week-over-week to $3.30.
How Potash Prices Fared Last Week
Last week, potash prices were also broadly positive and managed to make new highs so far year-to-date.
Last Week Was a Great Week for Fertilizer Prices
Last week, the major NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizer prices rose broadly week-over-week.
Fertilizer Stocks Struggled on June 25 amid the Trade War
On June 25, the stock market continued to bleed due to risks from the escalating trade. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) fell almost 1.3%.
Fertilizer Stocks in June: Analysts’ Ratings and Price Targets
So far, June has been positive for most fertilizer stocks, buoyed by expectations of an improvement in commodity prices.
What the Future Could Hold for CF Industries Stock
CF Industries (CF), one of the major nitrogen producers in North America, has had a bumpy ride since 2015.
Fertilizer Affordability Dips but Remains Historically High
Last week, fertilizer affordability fell from the previous week on the back of a steeper increase in fertilizer prices week-over-week.
MAP Prices Were Broadly Higher Last Week
Contrary to the DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices, which remained broadly flat last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were broadly higher in NOLA and Brazil.
Urea Prices Are on the Rise Again
After a brief pause in the direction two weeks ago, urea prices found positive momentum last week.
Is Stephens Getting More Bullish on Intrepid Potash?
Intrepid Potash (IPI) reported its earnings on April 24 before the market opened.
A Peek at Potash Prices Last Week
Last week, potash prices were broadly flat to positive, similar to phosphate fertilizer prices.
Monoammonium Phosphate Prices and Mosaic’s Views on Brazil
Like DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to positive WoW (week-over-week) but stayed higher YoY (year-over-year).
Nutrien Stock: 1Q18 Earnings Results Snapshot
Nutrien (NTR)(POT)(AGU) reported its 1Q18 earnings on May 7 after the market closed.
Mosaic Stock Down after Its 1Q18 Earnings Results
The Mosaic Company (MOS) announced its 1Q18 earnings after the market closed on May 7. It posted adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.11.
Why Mosaic’s Sales Could Climb in 1Q18
For 1Q18, Mosaic is estimated to post $1.8 billion in sales, which would represent a 12% increase from $1.6 in 1Q17.
What to Expect from Mosaic’s 1Q18 Earnings
Mosaic is expected to report EPS of $0.28 in 1Q18, which would be a significant rise from its EPS of $0.04 in 1Q17.
How Did Potash Prices Perform Last Week?
While nitrogen and phosphate prices at some locations experienced a weekly increase, potash prices were broadly flat to negative week-over-week.
Snapshot: CF Industries Reports Its 1Q18 Earnings
CF Industries (CF) reported its 1Q18 earnings on May 2, after the market closed.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved in the Week Ending April 27
As of May 1, Israel Chemicals and Mosaic were the only two fertilizer stocks to have positive YTD (year-to-date) returns.
How DAP Prices Performed for the Week Ended April 20
Last week, prices for DAP (diammonium phosphate) fertilizer were broadly flat to positive except for Morocco.
Fertilizer Price Movements for the Week Ended April 20
Last week, most fertilizer stocks ended in positive territory. Intrepid Potash (IPI) was the biggest gainer, rising 4.3% to $4.20.
Fertilizer Affordability Index Drifted Lower Last Week
In the week that ended on April 13, 2018, the Fertilizer Affordability Index drifted lower, continuing its two-week streak.
Potash’s Price Movements in the Week Ended April 13
Last week, potash prices remained strong with overall flat to positive movement. Prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia remained particularly strong week-over-week.
MAP Prices Continued to Weaken Last Week
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices mimicked the movements in DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices.
How Diammonium Phosphate Prices Fared Last Week
In the week that ended on April 13, 2018, DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to negative.
Fertilizer Affordability Continues to Be Attractive for Buyers
The Fertilizer Affordability Index issued by the Mosaic Company (MOS) showed that fertilizers continued to be more affordable last week.
Urea Prices Tumbled in Week Ended April 6
Last week, urea prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US declined by ~3.4% week-over-week to $207 per metric ton from $214 per metric ton.
Why Monsanto Stock Popped Yesterday
Monsanto (MON) stock surged on April 9, 2018, following news that the U.S. Department of Justice approved the merger with Bayer.
MAP Prices Were Mixed in the Week Ending March 30
In the week ending March 30, 2018, MAP prices in Brazil remained flat week-over-week at $426 per metric ton from a week ago.
Fertilizers Remained Affordable Last Week
The Fertilizer Affordability Index rose slightly to 0.67x last week from 0.66x a week ago. The index level stood at 0.7x a month ago and 0.61x a year ago.
How Did DAP Prices Move Last Week?
Last week, the DAP prices in the NOLA region rose by 53 basis points to $344 per metric ton from $342 per metric ton.
How Fertilizer Stocks Are Performing
In the week ended March 16, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell ~2%.
Monsanto: Analysts’ Ratings and Target Price
The consensus mean target price on Monsanto for the next 12-month period stood at $125.8. Bayer’s acquisition price is $128.
March Update for Mosiac’s Target Price and Ratings
The current consensus mean rating on Mosaic stands at 2.6 with an overall “hold” recommendation on the stock.
CF Industries: Analyzing the Ratings and Target Price in March
CF Industries reported its earnings on February 14. Before its earnings, CF Industries was trading at $39.7. CF Industries stock soared to $44.7 on March 5.