Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.
Must-know: Why onshore rig counts are at a 2-year high
The U.S. onshore, or land-based, rig count increased by four rigs—from 1,865 to 1,869—during the week ending September 19. Land-based rigs include 13 inland water rigs. This is the highest onshore rig count in the past two years. It’s the highest rig count since August 17, 2012. This marks the eighth increase in the past ten weeks.
Is Natural Gas Supply and Demand Narrowing?
Natural gas production from the lower 48 states of the US increased slightly by 0.6% to 79.82 Bcf as of May 20, 2015—compared to the previous week.
What Do Analysts Recommend for RICE after Its 1Q16 Results?
Following Rice Energy’s (RICE) 1Q16 earnings, Wall Street analysts updated their target prices for the company for the next 12 months.
Why cold weather warms natural gas investors
Last week, natural gas prices didn’t increase despite forecasts for cooler weather. The forecast called for weather that would be cooler, but not cold enough to cause freezing temperatures.
Marcellus Shale: Why it’s key for US natural gas
Natural gas prices in the northeastern US have increasingly been below the Henry Hub price. This is primarily because of the Northeast’s increased access to Marcellus natural gas production.
Why the Permian Basin is the key indicator for oil rig counts
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (or EIA), the Permian Basin is the largest crude oil–producing region in the US.
Why Did Apache See the Worst Decline in 4Q15 Revenue?
Hess (HES), Apache (APA), Devon Energy (DVN), and Marathon Oil (MRO) recorded lower 4Q15 revenues compared to the corresponding quarter in 2014.
Must-know: Cabot Oil & Gas’ market performance
Despite COG’s recent negative stock market movement, the fact that it was able to hold its own and sustain significant levels of production should ensure that it maintains relatively high stock market returns.
Why COG Is the Second-Best-Performing Upstream Stock Year-to-Date
In 9M17, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) reported revenues of ~$1.4 billion, which is ~63.0% higher than its 9M16 revenues of ~$839.0 million.
Why Antero’s Revenue Has Climbed since 3Q14: Earnings in Perspective
Antero Resources announced adjusted revenue of ~$783 million. AR’s 3Q16 revenue was ~37% higher than its 3Q15 revenue of ~$570 million.
Key insight: Why natural gas prices remain bearish
Natural gas prices started the week by falling ~2.4% to $3.67 MMBtu (million British thermal units) on Monday. This was the lowest close in 11 months.
How Have Cabot Oil & Gas’s Proved Reserves Changed since 2013?
Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) proved reserves have risen considerably since 2013. At the end of 2016, COG had proved reserves of ~8.6 Tcfe (trillion cubic feet equivalent).
Why natural gas production trends are so important to prices
Record-high production levels have ensured that adequate supply of natural gas is available before the winter starts. The EIA anticipates that inventory levels will be 3,532 bcf by the end of this month.
Permian Basin activity signals changes to oil rig count
Rig counts in the Permian Basin can gauge drilling activities for upstream companies. The Permian Basin rig count is now at its lowest since May 2011.
Why Did the EIA Cut Its Production Estimates for Natural Gas?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) lowered its production estimates for natural gas. The fall in production corresponds to lower natural gas prices.
The best and worst upstream and integrated performers
Removing companies that outperformed on account of pending acquisitions, the top-performing energy company in the upstream or integrated segment is XOM. This isn’t a surprise.
How Has Cabot Oil & Gas Stock Performed in 2017?
Unlike most energy stocks, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) stock has increased this year. Since January, Cabot Oil & Gas stock has risen ~10%.
Short Interest Trends in Chesapeake Energy
On December 8, the short interest as a percentage of float, or the short interest ratio, for Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock was ~18.6%.
EQT’s Implied Volatility Trends: What We Can Expect
EQT’s (EQT) current implied volatility is 29%. While EQT’s peer Cabot Oil and Gas (COG) has a lower implied volatility of 21.7%, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) has a higher implied volatility of 52.6%.
Cabot’s Net Debt Is Stable: What It Means for Net Debt to EBITDA
In this series, we’ll discuss Cabot’s key fundamentals. COG’s 4Q16 net-debt-to-EBITDA multiple was ~2.2x.
Analyzing Natural Gas ETFs Last Week
On December 21–28, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 9.4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 17.5%.
What Analysts Recommend for Noble Energy
Approximately 63% of analysts rate Noble Energy (NBL) a “buy” and 37% rate it a “hold.”
COG Highly Correlates to Natural Gas Prices, CHK Not so Much
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) had the highest correlation with natural gas prices in the past one-year, six-month, three-month, and one-month periods.
Where Natural Gas Prices Might Head Next Week
Natural gas futures are expected to close between $3.24 and $3.85 per MMBtu 68.0% of the time until January 4.
Natural Gas Prices Rise Due to Warm Weather Estimates
On Thursday, September 3, 2015, natural gas prices rallied due to speculation of an increase in demand for natural gas as a result of the warm weather forecast.
Natural Gas Prices Fell Almost 5% Due to Natural Gas Stocks’ Data
September natural gas futures contracts fell by 4.91% on August 13, 2015. Prices fell due to a better-than-expected rise in natural gas inventory data.
Will the Oil Rig Count Increase Natural Gas Downside Risk?
Since 2008, the natural gas rig count has fallen ~89% from its record high. But the fall was unable to stop the rise in natural gas supplies.
COG’s Second-Quarter Revenue to Fall: Impact on Earnings
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) plans to release its second-quarter earnings on July 27. Revenue estimates stand at ~$384.96 million.
Why natural gas prices hit $4 before returning to previous levels
Falling again from levels close to $4, natural gas prices retreated to $3.93 MMBtu after the EIA reported higher than expected inventory increases.
Cabot Oil & Gas: Short Interest Trends in Its Stock
On July 18, 2017, Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) short interest ratio was ~4.7%. At the beginning of the year, its short interest ratio was 4.2%.
Will NYMEX Natural Gas Cross $2.8 Next Week?
On July 26, 2018, natural gas’s implied volatility was 19.5%, ~2.5% below its 15-day moving average.
Could Oil’s Moves Influence Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks?
Range Resources and Antero Resources had the highest negative correlations with natural gas June futures over the past five trading sessions.
Futures Spread and the Natural Gas Market
On April 24, natural gas June 2018 futures closed at a premium of ~$0.2 to June 2019 futures. The difference is called the “futures spread.”
How Does US Natural Gas Production Impact Prices?
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% YoY.
Natural Gas Prices Rise Due to Hot Weather Estimates
Natural gas prices rose for the sixth time in the last ten days. Prices rose by 0.05% more on the up days than on the down days.
Are Supply Concerns Rising for Natural Gas?
On April 3, 2018, natural gas May 2018 futures closed at a premium of $0.04 to May 2019 futures.
UNG a Winner, but XOP Disappointed Last Week
UNG was underperforming natural gas for almost the entire week, but towards the end of the week, it gave slightly higher returns.
Weather Forecast Could Push Natural Gas to Its 2018 High
On November 8, natural gas’s implied volatility was 47.4%, which was ~10.7% above its 15-day moving average.
Are Hedge Funds Reducing Bullish Bets on US Natural Gas?
Hedge funds cut their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options 44.8% to 24,984 on July 17–24.
Analyzing the EIA’s natural gas inventory report and forecast
On October 23, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (or EIA) reported a 94 billion cubic feet (or bcf) natural gas inventory build for the week ending October 17.
Which Gas-Weighted Stocks Are Outperforming Their Peers?
On October 16–23, 2017, natural gas–weighted stocks collectively fell 3.2%—compared to a 1.5% rise in natural gas futures.
Natural gas production growth expected to continue
Since mid-2011, natural gas production has increased even though the number of rigs has fallen. Drilling efficiencies have contributed to this trend.
Lower natural gas and oil prices hit National Fuel Gas’s earnings
National Fuel Gas (NFG), which is seeing activism from GAMCO Investors, noted in its latest fiscal 3Q14 results that its earnings growth was driven by higher earnings in the Midstream and Upstream businesses.
Natural Gas Prices Are Steady ahead of the Inventory Data
Mild weather could curb the cooling needs. As a result, the demand for natural gas could drop. This could be negative for natural gas prices.
Analyst Recommendations for COG After Its 3Q15 Earnings
We’ll discuss analyst recommendations for COG, following the release of its 3Q15 results. Wall Street analysts provided target prices for the next 12 months.
Natural Gas Consumption Fell in the Week to April 17
Last week, total US natural gas consumption decreased by 1.7% week-over-week. Consumption declined in the residential and commercial sectors by 5.2%.
Southwestern Energy: Could Winter Be Coming?
On February 28, analysts expect Southwestern Energy (SWN) to report fourth-quarter adjusted net income of $0.31 per diluted share, marking a 24% sequential increase.
Futures Spread: Natural Gas Prices Might Be in Trouble
On December 31, the natural gas futures for February 2019 closed at a discount of ~$0.06 to the February 2020 futures.
Rice Energy’s 4Q16 Earnings Were Much Better Than Expected
Rice Energy’ 4Q16 EPS (earnings per share) was $0.37 compared to analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.03. Its 4Q15 EPS was $0.16.
COG’s Implied Volatility Has Fallen Significantly since Early 2016
Cabot Oil and Gas’s (COG) current implied volatility is ~36.4%, ~3% lower than its 15-day average of 37.4%.
Cabot’s Free Cash Flows Have Been on an Upward Trend
In 4Q16, Cabot Oil and Gas (COG) reported cash flows from operations (or CFO) of ~$140 million.
What Cabot Expects for Growth in 2017
Cabot’s 2017 capex plans Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) 2017 exploration and production (or E&P) capital budget is $650 million. Including its equity pipeline investments in the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline and other expenses related to Marcellus and Eagle Ford activity, Cabot’s total capital budget for 2017 is expected to be $720 million. D&C capital Approximately […]
EQT: Analysts’ Recommendations for the Stock
For EQT (EQT), ~61% of the analysts rated the stock as a “buy,” while 39% rated it as a “hold.”
Must-know analysis of natural gas inventory report
On October 16, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (or EIA) reported a 94 billion cubic feet (or bcf) natural gas inventory build for the week ending October 10. Inventories increased to 3,299 bcf.
Natural Gas Prices Rally Due to Warm Weather Estimates
Natural gas futures contracts for September delivery rose by 1.79% on August 10. Natural gas prices rose due to the consensus of rising demand.
Bearish Weather Forecast Could Test Natural Gas Bulls Next Week
On October 25, natural gas’s implied volatility was 42.1%, which was ~8.2% above its 15-day moving average.
Futures Spread: Are Natural Gas’s Bullish Sentiments Rising?
On September 25, the natural gas futures for November closed at a premium of ~$0.35 to their November 2019 futures.
EIA Upgrades US Natural Gas Production Forecasts for 2018, 2019
Pointlogic, a market intelligence company, estimates that US dry natural gas production increased 0.3% to 79.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from June 7 to June 13.
Cabot’s stock performance when commodity prices plummeted
Most of the stock performance declined as natural gas prices and oil prices declined. So did the energy sector ETF, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE).
Where Natural Gas Could End Next Week
Natural gas futures are expected to close between $2.74 and $2.90 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) 68.0% of the time until September 21.
Is Oil Losing Its Grip on Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks?
Southwestern Energy had a correlation of 35.9% with US crude oil May futures on March 21–28, 2018.
Why Natural Gas Has Fallen 10% on January 22
On January 22, natural gas February futures fell to an intraday low of $3.13 per MMBtu, which is ~10% below the last closing level.
Natural Gas Prices Are Nearly Flat despite Warm Weather Estimates
Natural gas futures contracts for October delivery rose by 0.13%. Rising natural gas stocks will continue to put downward pressure on natural gas prices.
Must-know: Supply-related factors that affect ONEOK Partners
Natural gas, crude oil, and NGL (or natural gas liquid) supply is affected by several factors that could be supply related or demand related.
Are Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Underperforming Natural Gas?
From October 9–16, 2017, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 2.4% compared to a 4.0% rise in natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) November futures.
Natural Gas Prices Rise Due to Cold Weather Estimates
November natural gas futures contracts trading in NYMEX rose by 1.50% on Monday, September 28. Natural gas prices rose due to cold weather estimates.
A Look at the Rig Count and Natural Gas
On December 15, 2017, the natural gas rig count was 88.6% lower than its record high in 2008.
Natural Gas’s Whopping Upside: Gas ETFs React
On November 2–9, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 13%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 25%.
Gas-Weighted Stocks that Are More Inclined to Natural Gas
Except Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), all of the natural gas–weighted stocks on our list had correlations of over 34% with natural gas prices.
Which Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Are Aligned with Oil Prices?
Gulfport Energy (GPOR) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) had correlations of 89.5% and 72.4%, respectively, with US crude oil prices.
Natural gas inventory figures crush analysts’ expectations
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 112 Bcf natural gas inventory build for the week ending September 26.
Natural Gas Consumption Trends in the Week of April 10
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” forecasts that total natural gas consumption will average 76.3 Bcf per day in 2015 and 75.8 Bcf per day in 2016.
US Crude Oil Production Is Steady
The EIA estimates that the US crude oil output was steady at 11 MMbpd on July 13–20. The production was steady for the second consecutive week.
Natural Gas Prices Are Trading within a Downtrend Channel
November natural gas futures contracts are trading in a downward trending price channel. Weather and inventory data have been driving natural gas prices.
Why OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Rose in July
On July 30, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 70,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.64 MMbpd in July.
Natural Gas Rig Count Might Impact Natural Gas Prices
The natural gas rig count was at 202 last week—four more than the previous week. The rig count was at the highest level since September 2015.
Chesapeake Energy’s Q2 2018 Results: Must-Knows
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) reported its second-quarter earnings today. The company reported revenue of ~$2.25 billion, narrowly missing analysts’ estimates.
Natural Gas Liquids Prices Fall More than Oil and Gas Prices
In this article, we’ll discuss how natural gas liquids prices have moved relative to crude oil and natural gas prices.
Did Natural Gas ETFs Underperform Natural Gas’s Rise Last Week?
On October 26–November 2, UNG rose 1.5%, while BOIL rose 0.3%. These ETFs track natural gas futures.
Natural Gas Fell, Impacted Natural Gas ETFs
On January 25–February 1, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 10.8%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 20.8%.
What Are Analysts’ Recommendations for Chesapeake Energy?
Approximately 22% of analysts rate Chesapeake Energy (CHK) as a “buy” and 59% rate it as a “hold.” The remaining ~19% rate it as a “sell.”
Chesapeake Energy: Why Are Analysts Passive?
For Chesapeake Energy (CHK), 50% of the analysts recommended a “hold,” 38% recommended a “sell,” and ~12% recommended a “buy.”
Changing Winds in 2017 for Upstream Companies: Capex on the Rise
Capex increase in 2017 As we saw in the previous part, OPEC’s (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) November announcement was a catalyst to turning around commodity prices (USO) (UCO) (UNG) (UGAZ), especially oil prices. Global investment in 2017 A Wood Mackenzie report noted that “the global investment cycle will show the first signs of growth […]
Natural Gas Prices Are Almost Flat Due to Slowing Demand
September natural gas futures contracts rose by 0.07% on August 11. Natural gas prices traded almost flat due to rising natural gas inventory estimates.
Could Oil Rig Count Stop Natural Gas Fall?
In the week ended October 6, 2017, the natural gas rig count fell by two to 187.
US Crude Oil Production Reached Another Record
The EIA reported that US crude oil production rose by 46,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,586,000 bpd on April 13–20.
What Are Analysts Recommending for Chesapeake Energy Now?
Approximately 22% of analysts rate Chesapeake Energy (CHK) as a “buy,” while 59% rate it as a “hold.” The remaining ~19% rate it as a “sell.”
Are Oil Rigs Preventing Natural Gas’s Rise?
The natural gas rig count was 188 in the week ended June 22. That’s six less than the previous week.
Futures Spread: Less Bullish Sentiments for Natural Gas
On October 16, the natural gas futures for November closed at a premium of ~$0.42 to the November 2019 futures.
Are Gas-Weighted Stocks Tracking the Fall in Natural Gas Prices?
Between September 1 and September 11, 2017, our collection of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.1%, while natural gas October futures fell 3.9%.
Analyzing Hedge Funds’ Positions in US Natural Gas
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options 11.3% to 165,768 on June 19–26.
Inventory Data Might Push Natural Gas near $3.2 Next Week
On September 27, natural gas’s implied volatility was 28.3%, which was ~17.9% above its 15-day moving average and the highest level since February 23.
Blame Canada: Why Natural Gas Supplies Rose
Market intelligence company PointLogic reported that natural gas supplies rose by 0.6% to 80.2 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day between June 16 and June 22.
Cabot Oil & Gas Stock Down ~8% after Q2 2018 Earnings
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) stock fell 7.7% after its Q2 earnings. Although COG missed its earnings estimates, it beat its revenue estimates.
US Natural Gas Prices Were Mixed in 2016: What’s Next?
US natural gas prices were on a rollercoaster ride in 2016. February 2017 natural gas futures contracts fell and closed at $3.72 per MMBtu on December 30.
Natural Gas Prices Rise from the Key Psychological Level
Natural gas futures contracts for October delivery rose for the second day. Natural gas prices have been in a narrow price channel of $2.65–$2.75 per MMBtu.
Cabot Oil & Gas Stock Rose 8.5% after Its 3Q17 Earnings
After Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) 3Q17 earnings release on October 27, 2017, its stock rose 8.5% the same day.
Southwestern Energy: Outlook for 2016 and Income Sensitivities
Southwestern Energy (SWN) anticipates its 2016 net loss to lie in the range of $160 million–$180 million compared to a net income of $71 million in 2015.
What Do Analysts Expect for Upstream Energy Companies?
The 100-day moving averages of upstream companies’ stocks have shown strong resistance.
Permian Basin activity trend sets the tone for the oil rig count
In the past year, the Permian Basin activity was lower because it lost 24 oil rigs. There were also 33 oil rigs shut down in the Williston Basin.